WxWatcher007

Drove. Worth every penny.

Awesome. I was up at Whiteface this weekend and man I just love Upstate NY.

Went on a different kind of chase this weekend in the Adirondacks and it didn’t disappoint. All unedited shots:

Went to the Adirondacks this weekend and it didn’t disappoint. All unedited shots:

It’s insane. I feel like I’m drag racing every time I drive with her. All this time together and she hasn’t changed a bit. Those city people drive like maniacs, among other things. Makes for a hell of a Midwest storm chase driver though lol.

My (future) wife

92L up to 40% odds now.

Be prepared for a bidding war

Morning fog

Both areas of interest have ended up being legit, as the western Caribbean had more favorable development conditions but the wave in question will end up developing in the Pacific. Meanwhile, the slop off the east coast probably develops into a coastal low, even though it’ll likely be non-tropical. Too much shear in the SW Atlantic right now.

How did that level of cold work out for LES? I imagine snowfall might have been a bit muted especially in the snow belts that rely on Erie?

The mindset is quickly transitioning from tropical to winter, but as expected we’re starting to see a slightly stronger signal for activity as we get toward the 10th and onward. A little low is trying to form off the SE but is getting sheared to hell currently. Could become some type of coastal off the Mid-Atlantic this weekend and the start of next week.

Watertown has been real good to me. Love the area. I’d like to get down to the Buffalo area this winter to see what Lake Erie can do.

I’m just messing with him. All in good fun I hope. I think I spent two years as the bad luck charm when I moved back to SNE. Hopefully we all cash in this winter. This is about the time of year I transition from dreaming of hurricane eyewalls to dreaming of below zero temperatures and blizzard warnings…

I’d say exile the poor fellow to Canada since it’s not too far away, but then we’d lose our cold source. If we sent him to the NAO region though we’d at least have consistent blocking there.

There’s hope for me after all. Though I’m lucky if I get 7 hours of sleep.

Probably a dumb question but how would you calculate SD for something like seasonal snowfall avg?

Dryslot leading the crew of Mainers chaining themselves to trees as Scooter and the AEMATT horde cross the border with chainsaws to secure their power supply.

I don’t really get the argument here. If people can name 2-3 storms that’s a pretty significant year… Ida alone makes for a bad year given it **checks notes** caused widespread severe to catastrophic damage in Louisiana and the megalopolis.

Sammy had one heck of a run. Respect.

Rain in LA and DCA!

Delayed the Raiders/Chargers game

Didn’t the area get blitzed on Christmas Day last year? It was like 70 and windy here lol. What an event that was. I should have chased it lol.

Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 Sam still had a surprise up its sleeve tonight, with its eye becoming warmer on satellite images along with a stronger eyewall. Microwave data from earlier today indicated that Sam has been undergoing a concentric eyewall cycle, and it appears that the inner eyewall has become better defined. Regardless, it is not every day you see a hurricane with that clear of an eye near 40N, and the intensity estimates the evening range from 90-100 kt. Given the concentric eyewalls, the initial wind speed is conservatively raised to 90 kt, but it could be higher. High-resolution NOAA OISST data indicate that Sam is moving near a warm eddy along the north wall of the Gulf Stream. This favorable factor, in addition to low shear, should keep Sam's weakening to a minimum in the near term. Later on, although the shear increases rapidly and SSTs fall quickly, Sam is expected to transition into a powerful extratropical cyclone late Monday or early Tuesday due to a mid-latitude trough interaction well east of Newfoundland. This should cause extratropical Sam to maintain hurricane-force winds until early Wednesday. A slow weakening is expected thereafter as it slowly spins down as an occluded low. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast. Sam is moving faster, now 050/17 kt. A northeastward motion and continued acceleration is forecast through Monday as the cyclone gets caught in southwesterly flow ahead of the mid-latitude trough. The tropical cyclone is expected to be the main surface low center as it merges with the trough in a couple days, hooking briefly to the left. Thereafter, the system should resume a northeastward motion and gradually turn northward and even westward at long range as it moves around another trough. Model guidance is close to the previous cycle, even with the loopy track, and the new NHC forecast is basically just an update of the last advisory. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 39.3N 51.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 41.6N 47.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 46.5N 42.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 50.4N 40.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 06/0000Z 50.8N 38.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 06/1200Z 51.6N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/0000Z 54.5N 28.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/0000Z 61.0N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0000Z 61.5N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake