WxWatcher007

The signal is there and I think there’s a legit window for development. Not quite sure how sheared the environment will be.

Wish it were a little closer so I could chase lol, but agree. Likely to be quite impactful up in the St. John’s area. Good luck to everyone up there.

Thinking this is a late next week/weekend deal so you should be fine. But…you DON’T want to see tropical? That’s how I spend all my vacation time

Both 1 & 2 have high odds of development now. Not invests yet though.

Shows up nicely on the 12z GFS. Not to be taken verbatim, but the signal is there off the SE coast.

Whenever I have time I'm going to try to do a basin update, but although things seem pretty quiet (it's hard for it not to when we go from nearly a month of direct threats to threats to Atlantic Canada lol) we're still humming along. Three areas to watch: 1) Eastern MDR Wave--Another African wave is likely to become our next named storm. The GFS has backed off on development, but the Euro remains bullish. The NHC has a 50% chance of development. It is expected to turn north rather quickly and won't be a threat to the US. 2) Bay of Campeche--Both the GFS and Euro have hinted at some potential development in the next few days in the BoC and western Gulf. Not thinking there's a high likelihood currently of anything happening as land interaction could be too detrimental to something significant forming, but if the disturbance trends a little further east that changes things. NHC currently has development odds at 30%. The BoC tends to be an excellent place for seedlings to grow so if given a little space from land this could become more interesting. 3) Bahamas/SE US--I've actually been watching this signal for a while now, and I think it's meaningful. I always say watch the environment, not the surface depictions on the operational guidance, and this is an example of that. If you look closely, most of the guidance has a broad disturbance developing in the Bahamas or off the SE coast in about 5-6 days. The environment looks sheared right now, but that's in large part due to a PV streamer and we know that those can change on the guidance quite a bit. The steering pattern would favor some east coast impacts, either with a ridge driving the disturbance into the SE coast like the Euro or a well timed trough pulling whatever this is north toward the NE. No odds on this one yet, but I think it's something to keep a casual eye on for now. From there it looks like there will be some other items on the table potentially, especially in the MDR. The MDR isn't ready to shut down yet.

Hello Mindy! Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (5) Hurricanes: 9 (2) Major Hurricanes: 5 (2)

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. 1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased somewhat this evening over the south-central Gulf of Mexico in association with a surface trough and an upper-level disturbance. The system is expected to move slowly northeastward over the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Upper-level winds are currently only marginally conducive for development, but they are forecast to become slightly more favorable by late Wednesday, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form as the system nears the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night or Thursday. The disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern United States, and some slight additional development will be possible after it emerges off the southeastern United States coast late this week. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall will be possible across portions of the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday, with localized flooding possible. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Stewart

I posted without even realizing there was music I was there for the gif

I hadn’t even listened to the song lol

Larry has become a major hurricane. There are actually few hurricane seasons in the record with this many majors this early. Opposite of last year and consistent with my forecast so far. Next possible one to watch is 91L as a weaker system. Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (4) Hurricanes: 9 (2) Major Hurricanes: 5 (2)

This is the first weekend in almost a month that we don’t have a named TC threatening the US. Crazy busy August and early September.

Absolutely insane

The state trooper that was washed away here in CT last night has died. Really tragic.

A few more images from town

There was a D2 High Risk. I understand if the public doesn’t get what that means but forecasters did.

Definitely. Got any suggestions? Need something I could travel light with.

When all is said and done it'll be one of the most impactful tropical remnant events in US history. The scale of the flooding and tornado damage is just extraordinary. Right over the megalopolis.