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WxWatcher007

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Everything posted by WxWatcher007

  1. WxWatcher007
    That's very impressive considering that just a few weeks ago that region was barely above normal. Everything has lined up for an extended CV season.
  2. WxWatcher007
    Regardless of the eventual track, it’s going to be very cool to watch this thing take off over the next two days in the MDR. For all those that have been waiting for this part of the MDR to look like the peak periods of yesteryear, get your popcorn ready.
  3. WxWatcher007
    5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 23Location: 11.1°N 39.7°WMoving: W at 16 mphMin pressure: 1000 mbMax sustained: 60 mph
  4. WxWatcher007
    All good, just messing with ya. Thanks for starting the thread.
  5. WxWatcher007
    EPS would still favor a recurve at this juncture. Very nice animation of it here.
  6. WxWatcher007
    I don’t really care about the D10 low location. What matters to me are the players on the field. So while the actual run isn’t particularly close verbatim, all I really need to see is the SE Canada ridging and possible cutoff. It’s there for now. Let’s see what’s what when it gets to the Antilles.
  7. WxWatcher007
    That’s still very close with ridging over the top and cutoff to the west. Very very close. Yeah. Ensembles will be interesting. Not calling for a landfall lol but anomalous SE Canada ridging and a cutoff are fairly significant red flags, even at this range.
  8. WxWatcher007
    Quite a close call for the northern Antilles on this euro run.
  9. WxWatcher007
    Every time I start to preach the gospel of the GFS being better than the euro on tropical, it does this
  10. WxWatcher007
    Totally agree. This will be a major. Chaos when I don’t start the thread
  11. WxWatcher007
    Hey there, Sammy.
  12. WxWatcher007
    Better than the recent slop.
  13. WxWatcher007
    Yeah it’s a close approach/landfall steering pattern on the operational. Ensembles aren’t there though, and quite honestly the GFS would need to really show the potential to make me trust the euro. Watch out for some potential homebrew in early October too. Some weak signals starting to show..
  14. WxWatcher007
    Still pretty far out there though in terms of time. As I usually do with MDR systems, I’m not really fully on board until I see it at Antilles. That’ll be a key point as we’ll know whether it’s taking the first potential escape route into the ridge weakness or not.
  15. WxWatcher007
    TD 18 has formed and is expected to become a major hurricane in the next 5 days. That should help me get back on track as all the recent slop has decoupled my named storm prediction from my hurricane/major prediction…
  16. WxWatcher007
    This far out that’s usually the expectation, but that’s the business. Still worth tracking.
  17. WxWatcher007
    I think I still like October, but not from a long track MDR system. As long as we keep getting robust waves moving across the Atlantic, which we should see activity through October with a nice standing wave east of Africa. A mitigating factor could be shear, but all it takes is a window. For now, we (tropical trackers) watch 98L and bide time for the second peak around mid-October.
  18. WxWatcher007
    I’m slowly getting more interested.
  19. WxWatcher007
    I think that one has a good shot to impact land, and the Antilles should definitely be watching. These low latitude lows generally have a much easier trek west. As for the US, still too far out..
  20. WxWatcher007
    I expected a somewhat active MDR, but like last season it’s been virtually all slop. Peter overperformed, but did not become a hurricane. Rose was low grade. 98L is on the horizon with probably the best environment yet of the recent waves/systems and a much lower latitude. Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (9) Hurricanes: 9 (3) Major Hurricanes: 5 (2)
  21. WxWatcher007
  22. WxWatcher007
    Glad someone got to it. Could be another long tracker with the most favorable MDR environment yet. Though that’s not saying much this season…
  23. WxWatcher007
    What did I just watch?
  24. WxWatcher007
    Santa delivering presents in heavy smog as weenies throw their Christmas trees out of their front doors and set them ablaze in anger?
  25. WxWatcher007
    Today is a beaut
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