WxWatcher007

Ask and ye shall receive.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located over northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico have become a little better organized since yesterday. This system is forecast to emerge into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow, where an area of low pressure could form. After that, additional slow development of this system is possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. By Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Friday, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Beven

Maybe I've cracked or gone full weenie, but I'm still intrigued by the lemon that's now trekking over Central America and southern Mexico. The wave has done a good job of having persistent convection which peaks during the diurnal cycle. It's not organized, but there's modest vorticity. There is some shear present, and I'm not sure how much remains when it gets to the BOC late tonight/early tomorrow. I really do think if this convective cycle continues this one has a legit chance of development. It may need some help with a low developing further east to buy more time before land interaction. Maybe I'm just wrong for the 14,000th time this season I know everyone likes the potential of the MDR stuff, but homebrew is where it's at for me. Good forecasting test.

Winter 2013-14 may be my favorite winter, and I spent it in DC. Basically wall to wall winter from Jan 1 through March.

I went back to 2017 to plot OHC at this time in the basin.

This far away from any land impacts, it’s all in good fun to try to figure out which will develop. I don’t think I’d say 100% won’t develop, but I’m in the camp of it taking another wave or two before the tropical Atlantic opens up. I think the western Atlantic will have had a system or two develop by then.

There’s a guy out here mowing

Hard to buy right now when the tropical Atlantic remains dry and stable. It’ll change, but like I said the other day you may need some sacrificial waves first.

Skipped right over me too. Saw this coming from a mile away.

I’m just saying buyer beware. I love the weenie stuff too but there is such a thing as too much drugs.

That’s just weenie fodder. Even if the GFS consistently showed that, it’s so far away that you couldn’t consider it a serious signal absent multi-guidance ensemble support.

We’re getting there. Hyperactive looks off the table but solidly above average looks feasible as long as we can get some instability in the tropical MDR.

One of the benchmark floods

It’s still disorganized obviously, but that wave in the western Caribbean has held convection together nicely. The only things holding it back are land interaction and some shear to the north. We’ll see how it looks after the Yucatán, but this is as good a candidate as any for homebrew development. Wherever a center forms would be critical to TC genesis chances and eventual track.

Wet ground! .03”

Summer of bore continues.

Active look again today on the operational and ensemble guidance, and it’s not stuck at the end of the runs. Growing confidence the lid is primed to come off as early as this weekend starting with the BOC disturbance.

Ensembles continue to like TC genesis in the BOC in a few days.

The only way to do it lol

Well this is the first time my gauge will be operating in years now that I have a house. Station not online yet.

For this kind of forecast that’s all we can do. Zero expectations here, and I’m still leaning toward nothing meaningful outside of far eastern CT, but it’d be nice to watch a quasi-tropical system blossom tonight. Rain tomorrow imby would be a bonus.

well you know how it is. Sometimes they are a little late to the party, especially with stuff near the coast. Each year there’s like at least one that pops under the radar with the NHC. Colin was one about six weeks ago. Kinda think that October storm was name worthy much earlier too.

Oh yeah, totally agree. I’m just saying I don’t see the NHC chiming in right now.

I wouldn’t expect the NHC to comment on this one unless it’s making a run at being fully tropical or subtropical. Doesn’t mean it won’t have some characteristics though.