WxWatcher007

The mindset is quickly transitioning from tropical to winter, but as expected we’re starting to see a slightly stronger signal for activity as we get toward the 10th and onward. A little low is trying to form off the SE but is getting sheared to hell currently. Could become some type of coastal off the Mid-Atlantic this weekend and the start of next week.

Watertown has been real good to me. Love the area. I’d like to get down to the Buffalo area this winter to see what Lake Erie can do.

I’m just messing with him. All in good fun I hope. I think I spent two years as the bad luck charm when I moved back to SNE. Hopefully we all cash in this winter. This is about the time of year I transition from dreaming of hurricane eyewalls to dreaming of below zero temperatures and blizzard warnings…

I’d say exile the poor fellow to Canada since it’s not too far away, but then we’d lose our cold source. If we sent him to the NAO region though we’d at least have consistent blocking there.

There’s hope for me after all. Though I’m lucky if I get 7 hours of sleep.

Probably a dumb question but how would you calculate SD for something like seasonal snowfall avg?

Dryslot leading the crew of Mainers chaining themselves to trees as Scooter and the AEMATT horde cross the border with chainsaws to secure their power supply.

I don’t really get the argument here. If people can name 2-3 storms that’s a pretty significant year… Ida alone makes for a bad year given it **checks notes** caused widespread severe to catastrophic damage in Louisiana and the megalopolis.

Sammy had one heck of a run. Respect.

Rain in LA and DCA!

Delayed the Raiders/Chargers game

Didn’t the area get blitzed on Christmas Day last year? It was like 70 and windy here lol. What an event that was. I should have chased it lol.

Hurricane Sam Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182021 1100 PM AST Sun Oct 03 2021 Sam still had a surprise up its sleeve tonight, with its eye becoming warmer on satellite images along with a stronger eyewall. Microwave data from earlier today indicated that Sam has been undergoing a concentric eyewall cycle, and it appears that the inner eyewall has become better defined. Regardless, it is not every day you see a hurricane with that clear of an eye near 40N, and the intensity estimates the evening range from 90-100 kt. Given the concentric eyewalls, the initial wind speed is conservatively raised to 90 kt, but it could be higher. High-resolution NOAA OISST data indicate that Sam is moving near a warm eddy along the north wall of the Gulf Stream. This favorable factor, in addition to low shear, should keep Sam's weakening to a minimum in the near term. Later on, although the shear increases rapidly and SSTs fall quickly, Sam is expected to transition into a powerful extratropical cyclone late Monday or early Tuesday due to a mid-latitude trough interaction well east of Newfoundland. This should cause extratropical Sam to maintain hurricane-force winds until early Wednesday. A slow weakening is expected thereafter as it slowly spins down as an occluded low. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast. Sam is moving faster, now 050/17 kt. A northeastward motion and continued acceleration is forecast through Monday as the cyclone gets caught in southwesterly flow ahead of the mid-latitude trough. The tropical cyclone is expected to be the main surface low center as it merges with the trough in a couple days, hooking briefly to the left. Thereafter, the system should resume a northeastward motion and gradually turn northward and even westward at long range as it moves around another trough. Model guidance is close to the previous cycle, even with the loopy track, and the new NHC forecast is basically just an update of the last advisory. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Sam will impact the northern Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the eastern United States and Atlantic Canada for the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 39.3N 51.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 41.6N 47.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 46.5N 42.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 50.4N 40.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 06/0000Z 50.8N 38.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 06/1200Z 51.6N 33.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 07/0000Z 54.5N 28.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 08/0000Z 61.0N 28.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 09/0000Z 61.5N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake

Sam is one of the greats. An all-timer.

Falcons suck

Lemon now for the area in the SW Atlantic. Signal still doesn’t look particularly strong.

Atlantic Basin Update--10/1/21 Recap August was a busy month, with numerous US landfalls. September, however, was a month of contradictions. It was quieter in the landfall department, but we had Hurricane Larry make landfall in Atlantic Canada, Hurricane Nicholas make landfall in Texas, and Tropical Storm Mindy make landfall in Florida. We saw a lot of slop--with 9 named storms this season that lasted 2 days or less, the most since 2007. We also saw Major Hurricane Sam, which is only the 8th hurricane since 1966 to last more than one week at major hurricane strength according to Phil Klotzbach at CSU. Unfortunately, part of my forecast for the peak season between Aug 20 and Oct 20 is going to be a bust, with the number of named storms fully decoupling from my hurricane and major hurricane prediction. With Victor failing to reach hurricane status, that really locks up that fail. Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (12) Hurricanes: 9 (4) Major Hurricanes: 5 (3) Image courtesy of Philip Klotzback & CSU Overview Tropical Storm Victor is likely to be the last Cape Verde (CV) system of the season. The MDR between the Antilles and coast of Africa, after struggling to develop positive SST anomalies during the early part of the season, warmed fairly dramatically during September, extending the traditional CV season through the end of September. That doesn't mean that we won't see more activity, as I expect strong waves to continue pushing through the region through the first two-thirds of October as the MJO remains favorable. Now, climatology shifts quickly toward the homebrew region of the SW Atlantic and western Caribbean. Shear Shear will be a critical factor in whether we see an active October. In a cool neutral ENSO, shear decreases in the Caribbean, and although shear looks strong currently, there does look to be a window approximately a week from now in the western Caribbean. The gif below shows 5-day anomaly averages, so a window can (and I think will) form in between this. In fact, looking at the daily numbers, the GEFS pops a window in the SW Atlantic and western Caribbean in approximately ten days. TCHP/OHC This area of the basin tends to be the warmest, and that's no different here. Although the depth of the heat is less than the outrageous 2020 season, the extent of the warmth is actually a little larger than 2020, particularly in the Gulf and along the SE coast. This heightens the risk for hurricanes and major hurricanes, provided disturbances can develop in a window of reduced shear. The western part of the basin will likely need to wait until the suppressed phase of the CCKW passes this week, but we're already starting to see a growing signal for development in the long range. Steering Pattern Going back to my steering pattern discussion on September 11th, I didn't make the best call lol. The recurves continued, though Larry did find a way to make landfall in Atlantic Canada. The short lived Odette was shunted off the east coast while Sam has stayed well out to sea. I think this is because we had too much activity in the basin. The ridging was there, but with so many weak systems and non-tropical lows/troughs weakening the central Atlantic ridge, anything developing in the basin has followed the weakness well out to sea. October gets complicated. On one hand, homebrew systems, especially in the western Caribbean, greatly increase landfall odds with so many landmasses nearby. On the other, October brings more fronts and troughs that become kickers for systems trying to move westward. The caveat to that, is the prevalence of cutoff lows we've seen so far. As a result, I'm a bit gun shy on landfall chances in October, though I do not think the US is done at all with threats. That's normal. The EPS and GEFS show ridging likely being dominant for the first two-thirds of the month, increasing chances of close calls off the SE coast or landfalls in the Caribbean, but we really need to see what the in-situ steering pattern is before having greater confidence in calling for anything higher than the climatological average of landfall IMO. Atlantic Areas of Interest Currently, there is no specific disturbance to focus on. In fact, the NHC does not have a even a lemon in the basin for the first time in a while. I know the GFS is showing development, but just as I tell folks to be careful when there isn't a surface signal on the operational guidance, be careful of the GFS being overzealous in developing western Caribbean phantoms as well this time of year. Analyze the environment and look for the subtle signal. There are two zones to watch. 1) Western Caribbean--This isn't a surprise as climo starts to favor it, but in the next 7-10 days we could see some development in the region as a tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean moves west and slows down. I'd lean toward the latter end of this 7-10 day range, as we see the suppressed stage of the CCKW/MJO. 2) Western Atlantic--This is a more tricky signal to decipher, as I think it may be driven by what happens in the Caribbean. The guidance tries to sharpen some type of wave or disturbance next week, but while the GFS is slower and more aggressive off the SE coast, the Euro and others keep things broad and unable to develop. Worth watching casually, but a lower shot deal at this point. October is often the last hurrah for hurricane season. Happy hunting.

Super helpful, thanks. I can use some of this vacation time I never got to use for hurricane season.

Oof. I want to get up there but I'm balking at sitting in traffic lol. Would traffic be substantially better if I came up during a weekday?

Smuggler’s Notch?

I thought they were talking about the Avengers and quickly went to totally stumped.

No matter what happens, you should know your contributions are appreciated. I’m sure I’m not the only one that feels this way.

Yeah, it’s over.