WxWatcher007

Well we now have Peter, and recon found the center 100 nautical miles wsw of their estimated position. Not sure if that makes much of a difference in track at the end of the day, but more EPS members take the eventual track closer to Bermuda. Long range outlook seems to still be a bit in flux. Tropical Storm Peter Special Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 900 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 Satellite imagery as well as data from a Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the center of Peter is over 100 n mi west-southwest of its forecast position. Therefore, a special advisory for track is being issued. The forecast track has been adjusted through the first 60 h, resulting in a slight southward adjustment of the track through the first couple of days. The aircraft also measured 925 mb flight-level winds of 56 kt, which supports an initial intensity of 40 kt. No adjustments were made to the intensity forecast. The next full advisory will be issued at 1500 UTC. Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. However, interests there should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the north of the area. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding from late Sunday into Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1300Z 17.6N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 18.2N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 19.3N 58.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 20.2N 61.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 21.3N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 22.6N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 24.3N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 25.8N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 27.7N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

Yeah, I thought this was a TC late last night, and I think both this and 97L look like TCs given the data today.

I get it…but look at Odette

This. Thanks. I update for each storm during that Aug 20-Oct 20 period once they’ve reached their peak intensity. My forecast looks decent so far but there’s been more MDR slop than I expected. It’s really tough sledding out there. There’s no real basin update right now, other than it looks harder to get any MDR system to get all the way west given how frequently troughs are showing up now. I think homebrew is going to be the best bet for US land impacts moving forward.

Odette has arrived and Peter doesn’t look too far behind. Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (7) Hurricanes: 9 (3) Major Hurricanes: 5 (2)

It has gradually improved in organization today but it has looked even better the last few hours. This looks like a TC to me. Would be great to see an ASCAT scan.

Really interesting how 1938 has stood the test of time despite better/more dense observation data in the decades since.

This is probably the best 95L has looked since coming off Africa. Nice curved bands of convection forming on the western side and near the center.

If it ain’t coming up the Bay, it’s OTS lol

Tropical Storm Odette coming at 5pm.

Tropical Storm Odette coming at 5pm. System right off the Mid-Atlantic coast currently. Headed out to sea.

That was one of the best throws of the season so far. Wow.

That McLaurin kid is good.

Enjoy. Study abroad is a great opportunity and experience.

College study abroad? Does it snow there?

The signal has been on the guidance for the better part of the week for an upper low to interact with a wave and create a broad system. Steering pattern originally looked to bring this into the East Coast, then recent guidance kicked it out to sea, and now there seems to be a bit of a split between OTS (favored IMO) and some type of retrograde. With an invest declared and guidance really focusing on development now, it's time to discuss. So discuss Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 14 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently downgraded Tropical Depression Nicholas, located near Port Arthur, Texas. 1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands are becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while system moves generally westward at about 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. 2. A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form while the system moves north-northwestward to northward across the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 3. A tropical wave is expected to emerge off of the west coast of Africa toward the end of the week. Environment conditions are forecast to be conducive for development thereafter, while it moves generally west-northwestward over the far eastern Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Roberts

https://www.courant.com/news/connecticut/hc-news-connecticut-fall-foliage-20210913-zycetqgzhjbkvawi2lvzw4vir4-story.html

I don’t blame you. It’s slop. Edit: thought you were talking about the current orange lol

Nicholas adds to the count. Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (6) Hurricanes: 9 (3) Major Hurricanes: 5 (2)

We've been tracking this one for days now and the NHC has designated it an invest as it rolls off the African coast. This one could be a long tracker, but there's a split on guidance (as expected) with its long term future. The environment looks favorable in the short to medium term for development and intensification, but it is unclear what will happen if it interacts with a TUTT as it gets closer to the Antilles. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas, located over the western Gulf of Mexico. 1. A tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa near the coasts of Guinea and Sierra Leone. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

The IR appearance looks impressive, but there's till a bit of disorganization near the surface. The current center is still on the edge of the deeper convection, and on radar you can clearly see a well defined area of spin within the deepest convection to the NE. Could be temporary, but worth watching.

Agree. If the center is really reforming north along the edge of that convection as recon seems to be finding, that could help spur a period of more consistent organization.

Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 12 2021 Nicholas is not yet a well-organized tropical cyclone, with little evidence of convective banding features on satellite imagery. Observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the center is still not very well-defined, and appears to have reformed again, this time farther south. Data from the aircraft indicate that the central pressure has not changed much since earlier today, and the maximum winds remain near 35 kt. This is above the latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. Nicholas will be traversing very warm waters during the next day or so, and within a moist, unstable atmosphere. These factors would favor strengthening. However, moderate southwesterly shear associated with an upper-level trough over northern Mexico could be an inhibiting factor for strengthening. In spite of the shear, the GFS model forecasts the system to strengthen while it nears the Texas coast. The official intensity forecast is at the upper end of the current model guidance. Given the uncertainties in the future strength of Nicholas, a Hurricane Watch is in effect for a portion of the Texas coast. The current location of Nicholas is quite uncertain since the aircraft-reported center position is within a broad area of light winds and is well south of most of the deep convection. Although the fixes show little motion this evening, based on the model predictions, it appears likely that the center will shift or re-form significantly northward as early as Monday morning. This is at least partially accounted for in the latest NHC track forecast, but some northward adjustments are possible over night. The storm is expected to move toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge during the next 36 hours or so. The track guidance and the model consensus has shifted eastward somewhat since the earlier advisory package. This has necessitated an eastward shift in the official track, and a northeastward extension of the watches and warnings. Key Messages: 1. Periods of heavy rainfall are expected to impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana coasts through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are possible, potentially resulting in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized metropolitan areas. Isolated minor to moderate river flooding is also expected. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a strong tropical storm late Monday and early Tuesday, and could be near hurricane intensity if it moves to the right of the forecast track and remains over water longer. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning Monday afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to Freeport late Monday and Monday night. 4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Mexico and the coast of south Texas beginning Monday morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 22.5N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 24.7N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 27.0N 96.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 28.6N 96.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 15/0000Z 29.9N 95.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 60H 15/1200Z 30.4N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/0000Z 31.0N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/0000Z 31.7N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Steering pattern generally would support a close approach/threat if something could make it to the SW Atlantic in about ten days. Agree this is one to watch should it develop.