WxWatcher007

FFW up for Charlottesville

Looks nasty on radar

Congrats to @yotaman, @sojitodd, and @Eskimo Joe who correctly forecasted the Port Fourchon landfall location. Congrats to @Cashtown_Coop for accurately predicting the minimum pressure of 930mb. Congrats to @alexderiemer, @cheese007, @MillvilleWx, @Jonah Cashtown_Coop, and @AU74 for correctly predicting the maximum sustained wind at landfall. Finally, congrats to Yotaman, Cheese007, @WinterWxLuvr, and @BuffaloWeather for correctly predicting maximum sustained wind overall.

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 410 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Day 2 Valid 12Z Wed Sep 01 2021 - 12Z Thu Sep 02 2021 ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST... 21Z Update... ...Northeast... Heavy signals and strong model agreement for portions of southern PA northeastward into northern NJ and southern NY has led to the issuance of a High Risk for flooding. The latest Hi-Res guidance has really narrowed in on this corridor with 4 to 6 inches possible and locally heavier amounts near 6 to 8 inches not out of the question. HREF probs for ARI exceedance of 100 years was well over the 95th percentile for this region increasing confidence even more. Models over the last 12 hours have shifted things a bit further north, and the surrounding Moderate, Slight, and Marginal Risk areas were adjusted to account for this shift. Much of this area is still recovering from Henri and already has fairly low FFG.

D2 High Risk just issued...

Also has the period of wind too, especially along the coast.

I whipped up a quick thread but if it isn’t the time I’m happy to can it lol

A significant rain event looks increasingly likely as the remnants of Hurricane Ida merge with an incoming trough and rides along a warm front. It’s a juiced up nor’easter! Discuss

Good form. Really like the poetic diction. You'll be ready to go for winter.

Signal there has been epic, but it's bad out here too because the rainfall rate could be higher.

Wind aside, the 12 HREF really got my attention. It'll be interesting to see how the high resolution guidance looks at this setup. Early on, it doesn't look pretty. I know for my area it has been a wild year for river flooding. A widespread high rainfall event could bring the worst flooding yet.

We toss for now. Wake me up when it gets to the Antilles.

Flooding is a better bet depending on where the rain sets up, but 10% TOR is nothing to scoff at. This is a high end remnant setup.

There are going to be some surprised folks in CT on Thursday morning.

Ida's ghost doing more work than a fully animated Henri ever could 500,000 without power in CT by 15z Thursday as Eversource says they assumed the forecast was for light rain (I kid, I kid)

Oh, and here's the probability matched mean. Thanks @CT Rain. Outrageous signal.

12z HREF looks big time. This is pretty nuts for a mean.

It could very well be. I think this is the best signal for a big rain event I’ve seen all year, and depending on where the warm front is, we could see an overproducer because the setup favors highly efficient rainfall. It’s just still a close call to me where the axis of heaviest rain ends up. PA is a lock to me, but for SNE, while CT is most favored, a shift N or S is the difference between a major event or something even higher end.

3k would be a major event verbatim, but I’m not going all in yet.

Always plenty of rain to go around in “winter”

Probably worth a separate thread for Ida remnants IMO. This is going to be a high end event for someone.

NAM Gone Wild Where do we sign?

Yup. Anniversary is actually today.