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Everything posted by WxWatcher007
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2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread
WxWatcher007 replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
Just shy of Category 5 based on the data so far. -
Recon doing NE to SW pass right now. Finding 138, 139kt FL winds and a 134, 136kt SFMR.
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First VDM Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 22:34ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: SamStorm Number & Year: 18 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission: Second flight of a sequence of non-tasked research missions into this systemObservation Number: 08 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 22:07:46ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 13.29N 48.58WB. Center Fix Location: 742 statute miles (1,194 km) to the E (89°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,627m (8,619ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 945mb (27.91 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 120° at 9kts (From the ESE at 10mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 9 nautical milesH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 111kts (127.7mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles to the W (273°) of center fix at 22:06:44ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 358° at 106kts (From the N at 122.0mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles to the W (273°) of center fix at 22:06:49ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 133kts (153.1mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the E (95°) of center fix at 22:09:26ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 177° at 127kts (From the S at 146.1mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the E (94°) of center fix at 22:09:53ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,055m (10,023ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 27°C (81°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 127kts (~ 146.1mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the E (94°) from the flight level center at 22:09:53Z
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Western eyewall dropsonde.
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East side has the goods. 942.2 extrapolated with a peak FL wind of 127kts and peak SFMR of 133kts. Hell of a compact wind field.
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Looks like a west to east pass from recon. Peak FL wind of 106kts and SFMR of 111kts. Extrapolated pressure of 942.1 at about 9,000ft. Might be just shy of the center though.
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2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread
WxWatcher007 replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
My goodness. -
That's just how it goes. MDR stuff is always high risk high reward if you're looking for US impacts.
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That's the flight to sample the environment, while NOAA2 will sample the center. Not sure how many passes they will get given the distance from their takeoff location.
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2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread
WxWatcher007 replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
I'm pumped to see what recon finds. -
943mb and 140mph at 5pm with recon en route. Forget the track. This is classic MDR eye candy.
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Absolutely spectacular. Glad recon is heading out there.
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2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread
WxWatcher007 replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
This is about as beautiful an inner core presentation as you'll ever see. Sammy doing work. -
2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread
WxWatcher007 replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
What was once 98L was able to take advantage of the favorable environment, and has now become Major Hurricane Sam. Subtropical Storm Teresa also formed. As I mentioned before, my named storm forecast has completely decoupled from the hurricane and MH forecast as a lot of slop has formed. Now I am way ahead of where I need to be on named storms, behind on hurricanes, and exactly where I need to be on majors. Frustrating, but overall the forecast still looks...ok... Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (11) Hurricanes: 9 (4) Major Hurricanes: 5 (3) -
Sam becomes the fourth major hurricane of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season.
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New version is better so far, but even so the GFS might crush the euro (again) here.
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2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread
WxWatcher007 replied to WxWatcher007's topic in Mid Atlantic
I’m strongly inclined to say no direct US impacts as well, but given that the modeled cutoff is shifting in some cases hundreds of miles between runs I think it’s most prudent to wait for recon to sample the steering environment. -
Sat analysis brings this over 100kts with ADT up to 115kts. Overall presentation via satellite imagery and microwave support an upgrade. Sam should easily be a major at 11am if the NHC doesn’t do a special advisory sooner.
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Sammy is absolutely going to town right now. Just beautiful clear out of the eye as towers go up around the eye. Need to watch for an ERC per the earlier microwave images.
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Gets absorbed in a few days
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Subtropical Storm Teresa Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192021 500 PM AST Fri Sep 24 2021 The disturbance just north of Bermuda interacting with a mid- to upper-level low has developed a prominent band of deep convection within its eastern semicircle as well as a well-defined surface center. Additionally, the system is not displaying any significant baroclinicity (i.e., frontal boundaries), so it is not an extratropical cyclone. All of which indicates that the system has evolved into a subtropical cyclone. ASCAT-C scatterometer data from 1440Z suggested peak winds were around 40 kt, which is the basis for calling the system Subtropical Storm Teresa. The system is moving toward the northwest at 12 kt is it rounds the northern part of the mid- to upper-level low. By Saturday, Teresa should turn northward and then northeastward, as it begins to be caught up in the mid-latitude westerlies. The forecast is based upon the TVCN track consensus technique. Teresa will not be long-lived. A developing extratropical system forming off of New England should absorb Teresa between 36 and 48 hours. Until then, the subtropical storm has a small window to intensify slightly while traversing lukewarm water and encountering moderate vertical shear. If deep convection develops near the system's center, then Teresa could evolve into a tropical storm. However, it is more likely that Teresa will remain a subtropical storm until dissipation in around two days. It is worth noting that Teresa will likely be the 9th so-called "shortie" of the 2021 hurricane season -- systems that are short- lived and relatively weak. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 34.5N 64.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 35.4N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 36.3N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 37.2N 64.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea
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I hear you. I have the benefit of being able to chase US tropical, so for a good enough event I can personally see the tracking payoff. I would have been in Louisiana for Ida if I didn’t have a family commitment I couldn’t move. I enjoy whatever falls in winter, but the older I get the more big dog or bust I become. I can’t muster the energy to track minor winter stuff closely anymore, but I get it though—I track Atlantic swirls before they’re even invests lol.
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NHC will initiate advisories on Subtropical Storm Teresa, located to the north of Bermuda, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).
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Special Tropical Weather Outlook...Retransmitted NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 400 PM EDT Fri Sep 24 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special tropical weather outlook issued for the system located to the north-northeast of Bermuda. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Sam, located about 1300 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Updated: Recent visible satellite imagery indicates that a well-defined center has formed with a surface low located a couple hundred miles north-northeast of Bermuda interacting with an upper-level trough. In addition, the low is producing gale-force winds on the north side of its circulation. Additional development into a subtropical storm is now expected, and advisories will likely be initiated this afternoon as the system moves slowly toward the north-northwest. Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.