WxWatcher007

1938 is the benchmark hurricane for the region, but Carol was big time. Catastrophic surge and damage in SE CT and RI.

Yeah, it’s ugly. Nothing to scoff at up here too in CT. High resolution models will be crazy lol.

WPC has mentioned the door being open for a high risk upgrade, especially in parts of PA. That in itself is incredible. Western MD, WV and PA needs to pay close attention to this one.

I think PA is squarely in the crosshairs, but for my area, which is more than double normal rainfall since June 1 and has seen **three** top 5 river flood events in the last 60 days, this looks like it could be ugly. It's a really efficient setup for a big rainfall event, as Tomer lays out so well.

This is one hell of a setup for a high end rainfall event IMO. Don't really care much about wind potential until we're closer. Someone is going to see a significant flash flood event, but where the stripe of most efficient rain production is still a bit of an open question (though PA is probably in trouble). That said, even a widespread area of high but not extreme rainfall is going to be bad for smaller rivers and creeks. Especially here. I know Elsa and Fred were big rain producers, but the widespread nature of 2-4" rainfall on the guidance has me wondering the last time we saw anything like that from a tropical standpoint.

This is an absolutely phenomenal thread that everyone should read. There is a legitimate high end remnant tropical event possible this week.

The strongest signal of the season so far on guidance for TC genesis and intensification has been for newly designated Invest 90L. Expected to curve but long way out. Discuss. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Ida, located inland over western Mississippi, and on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Kate, located over the central tropical Atlantic. 1. Satellite-derived wind data and satellite imagery indicate that an area of low pressure has formed over the far eastern Tropical Atlantic in association with a tropical wave that recently moved off the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

This far out, I’m betting on a trough that kicks it, but that WNW heading looked a little Florence-ish to me. We’ve seen ridging time and again pop up or flex for storms this season, and that’s something worth watching especially in maritime Canada. Well this signal for TC genesis and intensification has been massive. Easily the biggest signal of the year. It’s been there for like a week now. The NHC had a cherry off Africa before the wave pushed off. I’d be surprised if it didn’t become a major eventually.

“Is your oar hitting ground?”

We have Kate! Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (3) Hurricanes: 9 (1) Major Hurricanes: 5 (1)

I like where you place your trust.

Surge is the caveat, good catch. That’s how Katrina was able to build such a massive surge. A big steady state major will likely have more storm surge than one that undergoes RI right before landfall. I was talking more about wind/rain.

Also, time to update Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (2) Hurricanes: 9 (1) Major Hurricanes: 5 (1)

IMO, a hurricane strengthening on landfall is far worse. It's easier for the winds to reach the surface because in a strengthening storm, the core is at its most efficient state (pressure dropping/winds increasing and/or wind field expanding). A good example of this actually comes from Katrina, but not when it was a 5 in the Gulf. It was intensifying upon landfall in Florida, and although it was a category one (IIRC), because it was intensifying on landfall the impacts in the state were worse than they would have been had it been steady state or weakening.

So much to unpack watching the terrible situation in LA unfold.

East side…a lot of ugly things happen on the east side of a hurricane. Flash Flood Emergency for NO.

Heartbreaker for those of us up north starving for action

Never too early to start breaking weenie spirits! Yeah, it was all at night. Eyewall was post midnight and the power promptly went out lol.

Delayed but not denied Tropical Storm Julian Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112021 1100 AM AST Sun Aug 29 2021 The system has become better organized this morning, with the low-level center located on the southwestern edge of a persistent mass of deep convection. A 1246 UTC ASCAT-B pass revealed an area of winds over 40 kt southeast of the center, so the system is upgraded to Tropical Storm Julian with maximum winds of 45 kt. Julian is accelerating toward the northeast (045/15 kt) in the flow to the south of a deep-layer area of low pressure located just east of Newfoundland. The storm is expected to move around the southeastern and eastern periphery of this large low during the next few days, accelerating further and turning toward the north by 48 hours. The track models are all in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast is very close to the TVCA and HCCA consensus aids. This new forecast is also relatively unchanged from the previous advisory. Winds in the storm have increased faster than expected, even in the face of 20 kt of west-southwesterly shear. This shear is forecast to increase substantially in the coming days, with SHIPS diagnostics indicating it may reach magnitudes of 40-50 kt. However, the storm will still be moving over marginally warm waters around 26 degrees Celsius, and its fast motion and some baroclinic forcing could allow for additional strengthening during the next 12-24 hours. Nearly all the intensity models support some strengthening, and the NHC official forecast peaks the winds at 55 kt in 24 hours, roughly between the IVCN and HCCA solutions. Phase-space diagrams suggest that Julian will probably already be going through extratropical transition at that time, and it should be fully extratropical by 36 hours. Gradual weakening is anticipated after 24 hours, and the extratropical low is likely to dissipate over the north Atlantic by day 3. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 35.1N 46.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 36.9N 43.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 40.0N 39.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 43.6N 37.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 31/1200Z 48.0N 36.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 01/0000Z 52.2N 38.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

It was a little more ragged on radar before bursting again but that’s really all relative. This will be one of the strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricanes in US history. Incredible to see so many in recent years. Maria (17), Michael (18), Laura (20), and now Ida. And I’m not sure we’re done this season…

I know bud. Never looked at it any other way Now, let’s get a big remnant event up here

May have maxed out now but I’m on mobile

I’m on the road (NOT IN LA ) so I’m just trying to follow wherever I can.