WxWatcher007

So true, and maybe the saddest part is that there are still people dying as a result of what they were exposed to at the WTC site. It's all just heartbreaking and incredible to think two decades have passed.

Larry is just hauling through the area. Landfall has occurred. Hurricane Larry Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1150 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 ...LARRY MAKES LANDFALL ON NEWFOUNDLAND... Recent satellite, radar and surface data indicate that Larry has made landfall in Newfoundland near South East Bight at 1145 PM AST (0345 UTC), with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (130 km/h) and an estimated minimum pressure of 960 mb (28.35 inches). SUMMARY OF 1150 PM AST...0350 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...47.4N 54.5W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF ST JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 47 MPH...76 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES $$ Forecaster Blake

Congrats to Maritime Canada on getting a hurricane before New England Hurricane Larry Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122021 1150 PM AST Fri Sep 10 2021 ...LARRY MAKES LANDFALL ON NEWFOUNDLAND... Recent satellite, radar and surface data indicate that Larry has made landfall in Newfoundland near South East Bight at 1145 PM AST (0345 UTC), with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph (130 km/h) and an estimated minimum pressure of 960 mb (28.35 inches). SUMMARY OF 1150 PM AST...0350 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...47.4N 54.5W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF ST JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 030 DEGREES AT 47 MPH...76 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES $$ Forecaster Blake

Atlantic Basin Overview 9/10/21 The peak is here! It has been a very active season so far, with 7 US landfalls including the historic Category 4 landfall by Ida. There were also two additional hurricane strikes, with Grace making landfall as a Category 3 and Larry making a landfall as I type in Maritime Canada. These won't be the last landfalls of the season... Overview I don't really need to go into the environment. It's peak season lol and we have a cool neutral ENSO state, slightly above normal SSTs in the MDR, and while not as expansive as the extraordinary 2020 season, TCHP/OHC and D26 is very strong, especially close to home where I anticipate significant activity in the coming weeks as climo shifts from the MDR to Caribbean, Gulf, and SW Atlantic. Steering Pattern After an extraordinarily busy late August and early September in the US, as expected, the pattern reshuffled, partially driven by climo IMO, to bring less risk to the US. We saw more frequent troughs and a weaker WAR, causing some quick recurves out in the MDR. The exception was Mindy, which developed quickly close to the northern Gulf coast a few days ago. That pattern is coming to an end. As I stated in my last outlook, I expected the pattern to return to a ridge dominant Atlantic toward the end of September. We're about a third through the month of September and we're starting to see the ensemble guidance bring back ridging in SE Canada and over the central Atlantic. It's unclear how long that holds, but it opens the door to a return to the active landfall pattern we had just a few weeks ago if systems can track under the ridge. Let's go to the threats. Atlantic Areas of Interest 1) Invest 93L/Eastern MDR Wave--The wave coming off the coast of Africa has 70% development odds from the NHC. This one is not going to impact the US, but its evolution could have significant implications on another area of interest. 2) Bay of Campeche--It's a little baffling to me that this isn't an invest yet, but the NHC has odds of development at 80% within 5 days. The signal for this one continues to be a little complicated, chiefly because of proximity to land. It looks clear to me that there will be a level of development as the disturbance takes advantage of a favorable environment, including the concave nature of the BoC that should help focus vorticity. As I said in my last update, this is a great space for disturbances to develop and I think the environment brings potential for significant intensification should development happen further east, away from the western Gulf coast. The 18z GFS showed this well and to a lesser extent the 12z Euro. This is one to watch closely, as it could be a US landfall along the TX/LA coast as the disturbance slides around the edge of a ridge. The rain signal for the region looks substantial. 3) Bahamas/SE US--The signal here is growing too IMO. A broad disturbance from either a weak wave or upper low may find itself in an marginally favorable environment for development next week. The changing steering pattern continues to favor the disturbance being pushed into the SE or pulled up the coast. This is worth watching as things come into better focus. 4) Trailing Eastern MDR Wave--This is a new one. There's a strong signal, especially on the EPS, that the wave after 93L rolls off of Africa and becomes a potential long track system. What happens here is closely tied to what 93L ends up doing. Some guidance has 93L hook north quickly, while other guidance, like the Euro is a bit slower with the turn. The delay in the turn allows for 93L to moisten the environment ahead of this wave, which makes it more likely it can find a favorable environment early. In addition, this wave looks to come off of Africa much lower in latitude than 93L and travel westward as the central Atlantic ridge rebuilds, further pushing the wave west. This is the one I'm watching least, as it is still far out, but it could be something worth paying more attention to in the long term. Overall, there's no sign of the basin slowing down. After a bit of a break due to the reshuffling of the steering pattern, a combination of homebrew () focused development and a return to the ridge dominant upper level pattern increases the chances of US impacts for the foreseeable future.

Still really impressive on IR and radar.

Totally agree. The environment looks pretty favorable for some significant development IMO *if* it can avoid too much land interaction. Wouldn't be surprised at all if we saw an even more robust solution if it weren't scraping the TX coast. I'd be watching closely if I were along the TX/LA coastline.

GFS (and the guidance more broadly) shows nicely what I was talking about when I highlighted those three areas of interest. For the BoC/Gulf disturbance, the GFS keeps it further east as it rounds the periphery of a ridge and that gives it just enough space to develop pretty quickly into a hurricane that threatens the TX/LA coast in a few days. Still an outlier for now but can't be discounted at all. GFS and the 12z Euro also continues the signal for some sort of broad mess to develop off the SE US at the end of next week that would be drawn into the SE US as a ridge flexes or up the coastline as a trough advances from the midwest. Right now I'd favor some weak tropical or subtropical system, but a more focused area of vorticity would be able (I think) to modestly develop if shear continues to back off. With today being the official peak of the season I plan to write up a basin overview tonight.

That’s pretty nice organization for that latitude. This was a good long tracker. Hopefully the folks over there do alright damage wise in this storm.

Soooo…I lost?

No, nothing that far out geographically, though the wave behind the current cherry could come off Africa much lower in latitude with a more westward steering pattern at the end of September. The operational guidance has been signaling some sort of weak wave or upper low that could serve as a focal point for tropical or subtropical development in the Bahamas or just off the SE coast about a week from now. It’s subtle, but I wouldn’t expect a particularly aggressive signal given the potential of a PV streamer being nearby.

The signal is there and I think there’s a legit window for development. Not quite sure how sheared the environment will be.

Wish it were a little closer so I could chase lol, but agree. Likely to be quite impactful up in the St. John’s area. Good luck to everyone up there.

Thinking this is a late next week/weekend deal so you should be fine. But…you DON’T want to see tropical? That’s how I spend all my vacation time

Both 1 & 2 have high odds of development now. Not invests yet though.

Shows up nicely on the 12z GFS. Not to be taken verbatim, but the signal is there off the SE coast.

Whenever I have time I'm going to try to do a basin update, but although things seem pretty quiet (it's hard for it not to when we go from nearly a month of direct threats to threats to Atlantic Canada lol) we're still humming along. Three areas to watch: 1) Eastern MDR Wave--Another African wave is likely to become our next named storm. The GFS has backed off on development, but the Euro remains bullish. The NHC has a 50% chance of development. It is expected to turn north rather quickly and won't be a threat to the US. 2) Bay of Campeche--Both the GFS and Euro have hinted at some potential development in the next few days in the BoC and western Gulf. Not thinking there's a high likelihood currently of anything happening as land interaction could be too detrimental to something significant forming, but if the disturbance trends a little further east that changes things. NHC currently has development odds at 30%. The BoC tends to be an excellent place for seedlings to grow so if given a little space from land this could become more interesting. 3) Bahamas/SE US--I've actually been watching this signal for a while now, and I think it's meaningful. I always say watch the environment, not the surface depictions on the operational guidance, and this is an example of that. If you look closely, most of the guidance has a broad disturbance developing in the Bahamas or off the SE coast in about 5-6 days. The environment looks sheared right now, but that's in large part due to a PV streamer and we know that those can change on the guidance quite a bit. The steering pattern would favor some east coast impacts, either with a ridge driving the disturbance into the SE coast like the Euro or a well timed trough pulling whatever this is north toward the NE. No odds on this one yet, but I think it's something to keep a casual eye on for now. From there it looks like there will be some other items on the table potentially, especially in the MDR. The MDR isn't ready to shut down yet.

Hello Mindy! Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (5) Hurricanes: 9 (2) Major Hurricanes: 5 (2)

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Sep 7 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Larry, located over the central Atlantic several hundred miles southeast of Bermuda. 1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased somewhat this evening over the south-central Gulf of Mexico in association with a surface trough and an upper-level disturbance. The system is expected to move slowly northeastward over the central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days. Upper-level winds are currently only marginally conducive for development, but they are forecast to become slightly more favorable by late Wednesday, and a tropical or subtropical depression could form as the system nears the northern Gulf coast Wednesday night or Thursday. The disturbance is then expected to cross the southeastern United States, and some slight additional development will be possible after it emerges off the southeastern United States coast late this week. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall will be possible across portions of the Florida panhandle and southern Georgia on Wednesday and Thursday, with localized flooding possible. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Stewart

I posted without even realizing there was music I was there for the gif

I hadn’t even listened to the song lol