WxWatcher007

Yeah it’s a close approach/landfall steering pattern on the operational. Ensembles aren’t there though, and quite honestly the GFS would need to really show the potential to make me trust the euro. Watch out for some potential homebrew in early October too. Some weak signals starting to show..

Still pretty far out there though in terms of time. As I usually do with MDR systems, I’m not really fully on board until I see it at Antilles. That’ll be a key point as we’ll know whether it’s taking the first potential escape route into the ridge weakness or not.

TD 18 has formed and is expected to become a major hurricane in the next 5 days. That should help me get back on track as all the recent slop has decoupled my named storm prediction from my hurricane/major prediction…

This far out that’s usually the expectation, but that’s the business. Still worth tracking.

I think I still like October, but not from a long track MDR system. As long as we keep getting robust waves moving across the Atlantic, which we should see activity through October with a nice standing wave east of Africa. A mitigating factor could be shear, but all it takes is a window. For now, we (tropical trackers) watch 98L and bide time for the second peak around mid-October.

I’m slowly getting more interested.

I think that one has a good shot to impact land, and the Antilles should definitely be watching. These low latitude lows generally have a much easier trek west. As for the US, still too far out..

I expected a somewhat active MDR, but like last season it’s been virtually all slop. Peter overperformed, but did not become a hurricane. Rose was low grade. 98L is on the horizon with probably the best environment yet of the recent waves/systems and a much lower latitude. Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (9) Hurricanes: 9 (3) Major Hurricanes: 5 (2)

Glad someone got to it. Could be another long tracker with the most favorable MDR environment yet. Though that’s not saying much this season…

What did I just watch?

Santa delivering presents in heavy smog as weenies throw their Christmas trees out of their front doors and set them ablaze in anger?

Today is a beaut

Well we now have Peter, and recon found the center 100 nautical miles wsw of their estimated position. Not sure if that makes much of a difference in track at the end of the day, but more EPS members take the eventual track closer to Bermuda. Long range outlook seems to still be a bit in flux. Tropical Storm Peter Special Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 900 AM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 Satellite imagery as well as data from a Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the center of Peter is over 100 n mi west-southwest of its forecast position. Therefore, a special advisory for track is being issued. The forecast track has been adjusted through the first 60 h, resulting in a slight southward adjustment of the track through the first couple of days. The aircraft also measured 925 mb flight-level winds of 56 kt, which supports an initial intensity of 40 kt. No adjustments were made to the intensity forecast. The next full advisory will be issued at 1500 UTC. Based on the track, intensity, and wind radii forecast, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico. However, interests there should monitor the progress of the system as locally heavy rain is possible on Monday and Tuesday when it is expected to pass to the north of the area. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding from late Sunday into Tuesday across Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1300Z 17.6N 56.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 18.2N 57.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 19.3N 58.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 20.2N 61.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 21.3N 63.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 22.6N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 24.3N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 25.8N 65.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 27.7N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

Yeah, I thought this was a TC late last night, and I think both this and 97L look like TCs given the data today.

I get it…but look at Odette

This. Thanks. I update for each storm during that Aug 20-Oct 20 period once they’ve reached their peak intensity. My forecast looks decent so far but there’s been more MDR slop than I expected. It’s really tough sledding out there. There’s no real basin update right now, other than it looks harder to get any MDR system to get all the way west given how frequently troughs are showing up now. I think homebrew is going to be the best bet for US land impacts moving forward.

Odette has arrived and Peter doesn’t look too far behind. Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (7) Hurricanes: 9 (3) Major Hurricanes: 5 (2)

It has gradually improved in organization today but it has looked even better the last few hours. This looks like a TC to me. Would be great to see an ASCAT scan.

Really interesting how 1938 has stood the test of time despite better/more dense observation data in the decades since.

This is probably the best 95L has looked since coming off Africa. Nice curved bands of convection forming on the western side and near the center.

If it ain’t coming up the Bay, it’s OTS lol

Tropical Storm Odette coming at 5pm.

Tropical Storm Odette coming at 5pm. System right off the Mid-Atlantic coast currently. Headed out to sea.

That was one of the best throws of the season so far. Wow.