WxWatcher007

Michael is not walking through the door.

I think topping out at 75-80 mph in the Gulf is in the reasonable (but outlier) range of possibilities but to me it seems most likely it’s 60-65 mph there. You’re right though that it’s in a tricky spot.

Here’s the VDM from recon. Still disorganized, but very close to retaining TS status based on SFMR readings. Shear is still making organization difficult, but the convective burst is nice. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 13th day of the month at 1:14ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304 Storm Name: FredStorm Number & Year: 06 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 8Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 13th day of the month at 0:51:00ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 21.36N 75.30WB. Center Fix Location: 99 statute miles (159 km) to the NNE (20°) from Santiago de Cuba, Cuba.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 798m (2,618ft) at 925mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1013mb (29.92 inHg) - ExtrapolatedE. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NAF. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 33kts (38.0mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 32 nautical miles (37 statute miles) to the N (5°) of center fix at 0:40:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 114° at 42kts (From the ESE at 48.3mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the N (10°) of center fix at 0:38:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 15kts (17.3mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 36 nautical miles (41 statute miles) to the W (269°) of center fix at 1:03:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 54° at 13kts (From the NE at 15.0mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 48 nautical miles (55 statute miles) to the W (270°) of center fix at 1:06:30ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 761m (2,497ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 20°C (68°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 925mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 10 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph) which was observed 39 nautical miles (45 statute miles) to the N (10°) from the flight level center at 0:38:00Z Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 925mb

This is a really helpful illustration of what to look for in developing but sheared tropical systems. You can see this very clearly tonight with Fred, as the convection is held downshear and cannot wrap around the LLC. It’s very hard to get significant organization and eventual intensification without this alignment process taking place. It’s easier to see on visible but we can make it work. Basically shear is generally pushing Fred’s convection from west to east, so you can see that despite the convective blowup, it remains downshear, and isn’t wrapping or firing to the west of the center. Let’s compare to Linda in the eastern Pacific. Obviously a good bit stronger but why is that? Note how the deepest convection is at the right/north side of the center at the very beginning, but wraps around the center. This process allows for the “feedback loop” of pressure drops and wind increases that allow for intensification. In a lower shear environment, Linda is able to vertically align and fully wrap convection around a core. This is why wind shear and vector is so important to TC genesis and intensification in a nutshell.

It does look like it’s trying to align under the convection, but it’s still got work to do to achieve that. No significant pressure drop on the latest pass by recon.

We were all there once. I learned so much getting on the early wx boards at that age and following some of the pros and knowledgeable hobbyists. The great thing about this place is if you’re in the right threads, there’s something to be learned or a perspective to be gained.

Recon is in the system right now, so we should get some data on this convective burst and organization of the storm. So far, I don’t see any real pressure drops.

Honestly, I'd be surprised if he attempted a chase here. It just looks too disorganized and marginal on guidance to get someone like him going. I know I'm not considering this one. This. It's obviously something to track but 1) there's nothing too exciting happening right now IMO and 2) there are a lot of tropical snobs on the board. Some only show up if there's a major (wind) event in the cards. That said, let's talk tropical I've been lukewarm on Fred's future, and it seems that the guidance has pulled back as well. Keep in mind that runs like the HWRF and that one GFS run were outliers, and even GEFS and EPS guidance were more bearish on the possibilities of a strong system coming into Florida. To be clear, Fred is not dead. It has developed a pretty impressive burst of convection. However, you can see clearly from the visible loop below that shear is present, as the cloud tops are being blown away from the center. Despite the very warm SSTs and OHC, it's going to take time for a weakened Fred to be in a low enough shear environment to allow for any type of significant intensification. That's why the current NHC forecast doesn't get this to hurricane or even high end TS status. One caveat could be if Fred is able to avoid land interaction (GFS and Euro take it into the FL Peninsula before getting to the Gulf) perhaps it can intensify a bit more because it'll have more time, but I think the ceiling is minimal hurricane if everything became aligned. I think a mid-strength TS much like the NHC is forecasting is the eventual outcome, and it should be mentioned again that this looks to be a significant rainmaker for someone.

We've been watching for a few days now but the organization of Invest 95L has improved today, moving the NHC to increase 5-day development odds to 70%. Like Elsa and Fred, 95L is projected to follow a similar path, though there is still (obviously) a lot to be resolved with regard to eventual path and intensity. Given the steering pattern, this could be a threat to the Greater Antilles this weekend and the US as early as next week. Time to track with a separate thread. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 12 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fred, located about 105 miles west of Great Inagua, Bahamas. 1. Satellite-derived wind data from this morning indicated that a small area of low pressure has developed along a tropical wave about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. However, the low does not quite have a closed circulation, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the weekend while moving generally westward at about 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday, and interests there should monitor its progress. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Berg

I appreciate that and to be clear, I’m not trying to be dramatic or take a shot at mods or anyone who wants to go off topic without going overboard. For most people, what happens here stays here and the overwhelming majority of the conversation that I’ve seen is fine. But that other part is tough.

Agree, but sometimes a new chaser needs to cut their teeth with the marginal stuff in order to have the skill set to handle more intense systems. Some of the lessons I learned during earlier failed/marginal chases were directly responsible for being in excellent position for future intense events. Best of luck @SandySurvivor

This is a generally great group, but I have to say that with what I’ve seen in other parts of the board, especially in recent days, it’s becoming extremely difficult to justify being here in any capacity. That really breaks my heart because I’ve learned a lot from mets and hobbyists and genuinely enjoy posting/reading about weather (and occasionally sports) here. This has been the only place I’ve found with the right balance of activity, technical discussion, and enthusiasm to share my passion—but some of you know what I do professionally, and where it’s going…and with some of the stuff here on the broader board…I just know someday I’m going to have to answer for other people’s unacceptable behavior when all I ever wanted to do was have fun talking about weather. I suppose that’s the cost of doing anything online. I’m not as sure today that my love of wx is worth sharing in this space.

They’re already falling apart.

52k top estimated on that cell west of CT. Very good CAPE out there for some bangers if those storms can keep pushing east.

Can’t say I’ve seen this before

12z Euro tries to clear the center from the coast by tomorrow morning and while it avoids Cuba, it brings it further east over Florida. I don’t buy the stronger HWRF solution. It has been rushing intensification from what I’ve seen with Fred so far, and it can certainly take a while for a robust center to regenerate, much less become vertically aligned. And this is expected to happen in the presence of shear? Possible, but unlikely. The 24 hours are critical to defining the ceiling of this system IMO, which I still think is relatively low.

11:00 AM AST Wed Aug 11 Location: 18.2°N 69.7°W Moving: WNW at 16 mph Min pressure: 1006 mb Max sustained: 45 mph

Let’s keep this thread focused on TS Fred, but yeah, 95L has a higher ceiling at this point. What happens with Fred could impact 95L in a few days. There’s a lot to sort out with TS Fred.

It's going to be a couple of ugly days for Fred due to land interaction and shear on the other side. Not much else to say until it at least passes DR/Haiti. Still looks like a favorable environment in the Gulf though. Edit: hours

3G? Were you carrying a flip phone?

FYI

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.Transmitted: 11th day of the month at 1:25ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF96-5302 Potential Tropical Cyclone: Six (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 2Observation Number: 11 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 11th day of the month at 0:40:40ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 17.34N 66.30WB. Center Fix Location: 75 statute miles (121 km) to the SSW (192°) from San Juan, Puerto Rico (U.S.).C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,504m (4,934ft) at 850mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1009mb (29.80 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 50° at 6kts (From the NE at 7mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 35kts (40.3mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the N (6°) of center fix at 0:31:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 115° at 40kts (From the ESE at 46.0mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 66 nautical miles (76 statute miles) to the NE (38°) of center fix at 0:20:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 25kts (28.8mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the W (274°) of center fix at 0:43:00ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 43° at 31kts (From the NE at 35.7mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 77 nautical miles (89 statute miles) to the WNW (291°) of center fix at 1:01:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,532m (5,026ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 7°C (45°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind and PressureS. Fix Level: 850mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 6.5 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) which was observed 71 nautical miles (82 statute miles) to the NE (38°) from the flight level center at 0:19:00Z Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the N (352°) from the flight level center

Don’t want to get too far ahead of myself, but 95L has a high ceiling to me. The environment ahead looks good for development and this could be another long range US threat given the steering pattern.

A tradition unlike any other!