WxWatcher007

Beautiful day here in upstate NY. Not quite PF level scenery lol but this’ll do.

Central Atlantic wave is now designated Invest 93L. NHC jumped the gun with the last two invests so we’ll see if the third time’s the charm.

Some modest support for waves 1 & 2 on the GEFS. Virtually nothing for 92L.

Just an observation—not saying it’ll happen—but that GFS run was close to an impact somewhere. TC comes in as the high builds over the top and blocks a quick recurve. Get that to happen sooner and it’s much closer to a coastal scraper in the SE at least. Edit: that, or removing/weakening the trough that creates the weakness in the ridge.

Yeah—I still think it’s a little wild but some development closer to the Antilles is a legit possibility. Note that the lead part of the monsoon trough tries developing too albeit much weaker due in large part to land interaction.

Something could pop eventually out of that monsoon trough, but that’s a classic GFS gone wild run IMO. MDR still isn’t quite ready for Primetime

All depends on the environment whenever a system got there. Just look at Marco and Laura last year. Both ran into the Gulf and had entirely different outcomes just a few days apart due to the conditions they met.

As I was saying yesterday, I think that lead wave (current NHC lemon) is something to watch as it reaches the Antilles. If it’s able to track north of the larger islands it may run into a more favorable environment, at least with regard to OHC and moisture. Shear TBD. It’s no surprise the guidance is struggling with projecting what, if anything, comes out if this monsoon trough. We’re kind of at the point in the season where MDR environmental conditions are favorable enough for a signal but still hostile enough to preclude a robust one with what we’ve got going on currently. Sure, something could develop, but we’re probably jumping the gun by a week or two in having a truly conducive pattern for TC genesis. Of course, that’s why climo is climo.

Dog days for sure. Glad football is starting to ramp back up.

Yeah I’m definitely starting to wake up now. Neither wave is guaranteed to develop but if the lead wave in the central Atlantic can avoid land it could have a window for some development in the western Atlantic. I know 92L is the focus right now but I wouldn’t take my eye off either as something to casually watch.

CSU updated outlook was released and no surprise an above average peak us expected despite CSU dropping overall numbers a touch. Both SSTs and shear so far this year track in between our above average and hyperactive years.

Is 92L the ONE?

No surprise but that wave coming off Africa is now designated Invest 92L.

Yeah, sorry guys. I’m retired.

Yeah watch the western MDR in particular. We should get a couple of waves that’ll have a chance with the more favorable MJO phase.

You came all this way and didn’t visit me? RUDE. I know I tried burying you alive a few years back, but I thought we were past that.

Great stuff. I’m still riding above normal but short of hyperactive. I don’t really take much of a position right now on the predominant steering pattern in September/October but the pattern certainly looks ripe for August. We’ll see if that second wave is able to develop.

Not enough hype. Cat 3 or bust.

Don’t even have to say it. That’s already a lock. Congrats PF

Yeah—it’s like a 2 on my interest scale. If we had development and a little more time further south, it’d be a different story. At any rate, looks like a nice potential rainmaker with some breezy conditions on the coast.

I haven’t really started looking until now but my quick thought is yes if it can get genesis going off the SC coast and over the Gulf Stream before lifting NE. In the whole scheme of things though it doesn’t look particularly impressive IMO. It doesn’t look fully baroclinic to me on the GFS but maybe I’m wrong @CoastalWx @weatherwiz?

August is here, which means we’re just a few weeks away from the start of the climatological peak. A lot of talk around the MJO happens, and as we look at a potentially favorable window near mid-month, it might be helpful to have a primer on MJO.

I've been making a point to sleep (though work has been getting in the way) because I know it's impossible for me to get more than a few hours when a threat is on the table. Hopefully I can get in at least one more chase this season. There's a good signal for late August to be active, which doesn't always happen. I'm expecting the peak to be well above average but just shy of hyperactive. IMO the SST profile in the MDR is the reason why. That said, the basin is heating up.