WxWatcher007

Honest to God I don't know how I do it either.

It was the best track model from 36-72 overall last season per NHC verification. @CoastalWx I'm a little west of you on LF. Still thinking New Haven to Westerly but closer to the right side of that zone.

Thanks, I appreciate that. I actually have to hop off for a bit so if you don't see long recon posts it's not because I decided the storm was not impressive enough.

Too true

Latest VDM for those that care lol Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 13:36ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304Storm Name: HenriStorm Number & Year: 08 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 10Observation Number: 09 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 13:00:40ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 33.84N 72.20WB. Center Fix Location: 213 statute miles (343 km) to the ESE (117°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,043m (9,984ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.33 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center (Undecoded): NAF. Eye Character: Open from the north to the northwestG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 27kts (31.1mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the WNW (299°) of center fix at 12:55:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 17° at 22kts (From the NNE at 25.3mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the WNW (300°) of center fix at 12:55:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 55kts (63.3mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 57 nautical miles (66 statute miles) to the SE (127°) of center fix at 13:18:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 215° at 82kts (From the SW at 94.4mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 61 nautical miles (70 statute miles) to the SE (128°) of center fix at 13:20:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 7°C (45°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,047m (9,997ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,041m (9,977ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 10°C (50°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 82kts (~ 94.4mph) which was observed 61 nautical miles (70 statute miles) to the SE (128°) from the flight level center at 13:20:00Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... 10-m wind dropsonde wind unavailable.

Wasn't he out there yesterday? It looked really rough during those missions. I'm not sure what you were expecting, but borderline cat 1 was the prediction for right now and that's exactly what this looks like. I can't speak for others but I'm actually taking time to present the data and while not very impressive it is squarely in the middle of the forecasted intensity for this time and environment. This. Two things can be true at the same time. It's still fighting off some hostility and has a lot of work to do but it's much better organized than it was yesterday. I'm really not sure what people were expecting at 9:30am on Saturday.

SE continues to look impressive as well. FL winds now up with unflagged 75, 78, 79, and 82kt readings.

Yep. Eye confirmed. Open to the N. Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 13:21ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: HenriStorm Number & Year: 08 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 9Observation Number: 20 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 12:44:20ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 33.73N 72.28WB. Center Fix Location: 213 statute miles (343 km) to the ESE (120°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: Not AvailableD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 993mb (29.33 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 280° at 21kts (From the W at 24mph)F. Eye Character: Open in the northG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 58kts (66.7mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles) to the NE (44°) of center fix at 12:38:28ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 195° at 62kts (From the SSW at 71.3mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 92 nautical miles (106 statute miles) to the E/ESE (101°) of center fix at 12:00:43ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 56kts (64.4mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the SW (228°) of center fix at 12:46:41ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 298° at 50kts (From the WNW at 57.5mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SW (224°) of center fix at 12:49:28ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,459m (8,068ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,454m (8,051ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: Other - Not surface, 1500ft, 925mb, 850mb, 700mb, 500mb, 400mb, 300mb or 200mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph) which was observed 71 nautical miles (82 statute miles) to the SE (140°) from the flight level center at 11:52:24Z

SE Eyewall dropsonde, so it does look like there is an eye trying to develop. Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 13:16ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304Storm Name: HenriStorm Number: 08 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 10Observation Number: 11 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 13Z on the 21st day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb Coordinates: 33.8N 72.0W Location: 225 statute miles (362 km) to the ESE (117°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA. Marsden Square: 116 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -27m (-89 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 997mb (29.44 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 24.9°C (77°F) 155° (from the SSE) 44 knots (51 mph) 925mb 656m (2,152 ft) 20.8°C (69.4°F) 20.3°C (69°F) 180° (from the S) 71 knots (82 mph) 850mb 1,390m (4,560 ft) 19.2°C (66.6°F) 18.8°C (66°F) 185° (from the S) 61 knots (70 mph) 700mb 3,046m (9,993 ft) 12.0°C (53.6°F) 12.0°C (54°F) 195° (from the SSW) 54 knots (62 mph) Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 13:04Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 135° (SE) from the eye center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 33.80N 72.01W - Time: 13:04:02Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 33.87N 72.00W - Time: 13:08:23Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 170° (from the S) - Wind Speed: 58 knots (67 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 185° (from the S) - Wind Speed: 60 knots (69 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 696mb to 996mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 161 gpm - 11 gpm (528 geo. feet - 36 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 160° (from the SSE) - Wind Speed: 54 knots (62 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 997mb (Surface) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 24.9°C (77°F) 935mb 21.2°C (70.2°F) 20.6°C (69°F) 850mb 19.2°C (66.6°F) 18.8°C (66°F) 777mb 15.8°C (60.4°F) 15.8°C (60°F) 764mb 16.2°C (61.2°F) 14.2°C (58°F) 697mb Unavailable Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 997mb (Surface) 155° (from the SSE) 44 knots (51 mph) 995mb 155° (from the SSE) 42 knots (48 mph) 993mb 155° (from the SSE) 50 knots (58 mph) 979mb 165° (from the SSE) 62 knots (71 mph) 971mb 165° (from the SSE) 58 knots (67 mph) 963mb 170° (from the S) 62 knots (71 mph) 951mb 180° (from the S) 58 knots (67 mph) 942mb 180° (from the S) 68 knots (78 mph) 933mb 180° (from the S) 71 knots (82 mph) 921mb 180° (from the S) 72 knots (83 mph) 901mb 180° (from the S) 64 knots (74 mph) 887mb 180° (from the S) 67 knots (77 mph) 863mb 185° (from the S) 58 knots (67 mph) 850mb 185° (from the S) 61 knots (70 mph) 696mb 195° (from the SSW) 55 knots (63 mph)

Center dropsonde here. Might have seen another 1-2mb drop between passes based on the surface wind. Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 13:00ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: HenriStorm Number: 08 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 9Observation Number: 17 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 13Z on the 21st day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb Coordinates: 33.7N 72.3W Location: 213 statute miles (343 km) to the ESE (120°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA. Marsden Square: 116 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -59m (-194 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 993mb (29.33 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 26.0°C (79°F) 280° (from the W) 21 knots (24 mph) 925mb 631m (2,070 ft) 25.0°C (77.0°F) 21.2°C (70°F) 275° (from the W) 18 knots (21 mph) 850mb 1,371m (4,498 ft) 20.2°C (68.4°F) 18.8°C (66°F) 275° (from the W) 16 knots (18 mph) Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 12:44Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 33.74N 72.28W - Time: 12:44:11Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 33.74N 72.26W - Time: 12:48:05Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 275° (from the W) - Wind Speed: 21 knots (24 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 280° (from the W) - Wind Speed: 14 knots (16 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 751mb to 993mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 156 gpm - 6 gpm (512 geo. feet - 20 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 275° (from the W) - Wind Speed: 23 knots (26 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30406 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 993mb (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 26.0°C (79°F) 953mb 24.6°C (76.3°F) 24.1°C (75°F) 921mb 24.8°C (76.6°F) 21.0°C (70°F) 850mb 20.2°C (68.4°F) 18.8°C (66°F) 751mb 16.2°C (61.2°F) 12.2°C (54°F) Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 993mb (Surface) 280° (from the W) 21 knots (24 mph) 978mb 275° (from the W) 23 knots (26 mph) 895mb 270° (from the W) 14 knots (16 mph) 850mb 275° (from the W) 16 knots (18 mph) 801mb 280° (from the W) 10 knots (12 mph) 751mb 15° (from the NNE) 12 knots (14 mph)

Other recon plane (mission 10) finds the same extrapolated pressure of 992.7 with a similar (albeit flagged) SFMR.

On second glance, looking at that NE to SW pass while still a bit broad that's probably the best wind field we've seen yet with Henri. Interested to see the VDM there.

992.5mb extrapolated by mission 9 with a 35kt SFMR. That suggests the pressure is dropping within the center. Still not seeing a particularly strong wind field near the center. Looking at the data, I don't see much of an SFMR drop either, which is interesting.

Don't steal my hurricane tropical storm!

I'm way too serious tracking tropical to put in comedic effort lol

The most frustrating and hilarious time for sure

West trend was overdone but that doesn't necessarily mean it'll be east ticks from here to landfall. Windshield wipers could tick a touch back west too. I'm still thinking landfall between New Haven and Westerly, RI. Sorry Long Island, you don't exist to me.

Looking at visible and IR can be instructive, but on the ground data is the best kind of data and that's why I'm more focused on the current structure/recon than trying to project out 24-30 hours (which is fine for others to do, I just like watching this stuff evolve). Even looking at IR and visible, it's the best presentation of Henri I've seen so far.

Pray for me today as I try to talk tropical as people cancel the incoming storm.

Whether or not it is designated right now is semantics, yes. But I'm trying to illustrate that this isn't as disorganized as some seem to think. Watching intensification can often be like watching paint dry, so it's really important for folks to not become a prisoner of the moment. It is gradually organizing and it is not a leap at all to think that in 12 hours or so it would be an 80-85 mph hurricane, which is in line with the NHC forecast. Based on the data I see, I do not think Henri is underperforming the forecast so far.

Here's the center sonde that confirmed the 993mb pressure. Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 11:50ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5304Storm Name: HenriStorm Number: 08 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 10Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 11Z on the 21st day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb Coordinates: 33.5N 72.6W Location: 206 statute miles (332 km) to the SE (126°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA. Marsden Square: 116 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -60m (-197 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 993mb (29.33 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 25.6°C (78°F) 250° (from the WSW) 4 knots (5 mph) 925mb 629m (2,064 ft) 22.8°C (73.0°F) 22.5°C (72°F) 220° (from the SW) 10 knots (12 mph) 850mb 1,365m (4,478 ft) 19.4°C (66.9°F) 18.3°C (65°F) 255° (from the WSW) 13 knots (15 mph) 700mb 3,028m (9,934 ft) 14.0°C (57.2°F) About 9°C (48°F) 270° (from the W) 5 knots (6 mph) Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 11:25Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 33.50N 72.56W - Time: 11:25:20Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 33.51N 72.55W - Time: 11:30:08Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 220° (from the SW) - Wind Speed: 9 knots (10 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 245° (from the WSW) - Wind Speed: 9 knots (10 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 697mb to 993mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 220° (from the SW) - Wind Speed: 9 knots (10 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 993mb (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 25.6°C (78°F) 850mb 19.4°C (66.9°F) 18.3°C (65°F) 766mb 17.6°C (63.7°F) About 12°C (54°F) 718mb 15.4°C (59.7°F) About 8°C (46°F) 703mb 14.0°C (57.2°F) 9.3°C (49°F) 697mb Unavailable Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 993mb (Surface) 250° (from the WSW) 4 knots (5 mph) 977mb 220° (from the SW) 10 knots (12 mph) 945mb 210° (from the SSW) 10 knots (12 mph) 924mb 220° (from the SW) 10 knots (12 mph) 893mb 260° (from the W) 12 knots (14 mph) 870mb 245° (from the WSW) 12 knots (14 mph) 850mb 255° (from the WSW) 13 knots (15 mph) 776mb 260° (from the W) 10 knots (12 mph) 767mb 250° (from the WSW) 13 knots (15 mph) 755mb 275° (from the W) 11 knots (13 mph) 747mb 245° (from the WSW) 11 knots (13 mph) 735mb 245° (from the WSW) 10 knots (12 mph) 697mb 285° (from the WNW) 6 knots (7 mph)

Additional unflagged 60-63kt SFMR and 60-62kt FL wind data coming from recon mission 9. This is extremely close to being a hurricane.

8:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 21Location: 33.6°N 72.7°WMoving: NNE at 12 mphMin pressure: 993 mbMax sustained: 70 mph

First VDM shows a 996mb pressure and elliptical eye shape Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 11:40ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: HenriStorm Number & Year: 08 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 9Observation Number: 07 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 10:06:37ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 33.26N 72.72WB. Center Fix Location: 212 statute miles (340 km) to the SE (131°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 3,050m (10,007ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 996mb (29.42 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 230° at 31kts (From the SW at 36mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)G. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 20° to 200° (NNE to SSW)G. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 20 nautical milesG. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 10 nautical milesH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 45kts (51.8mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles to the SSW (197°) of center fix at 10:05:33ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 291° at 43kts (From the WNW at 49.5mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SSW (201°) of center fix at 10:02:56ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 57kts (65.6mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the N (0°) of center fix at 10:08:19ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 81° at 33kts (From the E at 38.0mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the N (0°) of center fix at 10:09:04ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,061m (10,043ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,055m (10,023ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 43kts (~ 49.5mph) which was observed 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SSW (201°) from the flight level center at 10:02:56Z

Heh, right after I say that--unflagged 60-65kt (60,61,63,65) SFMR with 60-63kt FL winds by Mission 9. That might do it.