WxWatcher007

Here's the visual. Again, for posterity

I'm a little leary of >140 kt SFMR readings without similiar flight level readings as well. But Sam is no doubt an intense hurricane. Especially in this region of the MDR. It's in rare company. Think Hugo and Irma. I'd be comfortable with 135 kts / 155 mph on the next advisory. Agree. Also, here's a great dropsonde for posterity. It went for one hell of a ride Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 0:12ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: SamStorm Number: 18 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission: Second flight of a sequence of non-tasked research missions into this systemObservation Number: 27 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 0Z on the 26th day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb Coordinates: 13.3N 48.7W Location: 734 statute miles (1,181 km) to the E (89°) from Bridgetown, Barbados. Marsden Square: 041 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -400m (-1,312 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 956mb (28.23 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 23.3°C (74°F) 110° (from the ESE) 162 knots (186 mph) 925mb 285m (935 ft) 22.2°C (72.0°F) 22.1°C (72°F) 125° (from the SE) 174 knots (200 mph) 850mb 1,022m (3,353 ft) 20.2°C (68.4°F) 20.0°C (68°F) 165° (from the SSE) 115 knots (132 mph) 700mb 2,687m (8,816 ft) 14.0°C (57.2°F) 12.8°C (55°F) 220° (from the SW) 96 knots (110 mph) Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 23:56Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eyewall 135° (SE) from the eye center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 13.35N 48.70W - Time: 23:56:15Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 13.49N 48.73W - Time: 0:00:53Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 130° (from the SE) - Wind Speed: 158 knots (182 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 165° (from the SSE) - Wind Speed: 105 knots (121 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 699mb to 955mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 157 gpm - 7 gpm (515 geo. feet - 23 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 115° (from the ESE) - Wind Speed: 161 knots (185 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30406 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 956mb (Surface) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 23.3°C (74°F) 850mb 20.2°C (68.4°F) 20.0°C (68°F) 719mb 14.4°C (57.9°F) 14.2°C (58°F) 692mb 14.6°C (58.3°F) 12.1°C (54°F) Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 956mb (Surface) 110° (from the ESE) 162 knots (186 mph) 954mb 110° (from the ESE) 161 knots (185 mph) 953mb 110° (from the ESE) 167 knots (192 mph) 951mb 115° (from the ESE) 168 knots (193 mph) 936mb 125° (from the SE) 147 knots (169 mph) 925mb 125° (from the SE) 174 knots (200 mph) 921mb 130° (from the SE) 169 knots (194 mph) 916mb 140° (from the SE) 171 knots (197 mph) 910mb 140° (from the SE) 162 knots (186 mph) 905mb 140° (from the SE) 144 knots (166 mph) 903mb 140° (from the SE) 139 knots (160 mph) 894mb 145° (from the SE) 144 knots (166 mph) 889mb 155° (from the SSE) 132 knots (152 mph) 879mb 160° (from the SSE) 122 knots (140 mph) 871mb 155° (from the SSE) 124 knots (143 mph) 866mb 155° (from the SSE) 113 knots (130 mph) 862mb 160° (from the SSE) 121 knots (139 mph) 856mb 160° (from the SSE) 113 knots (130 mph) 850mb 165° (from the SSE) 115 knots (132 mph) 699mb 220° (from the SW) 96 knots (110 mph)

...and in the next set of data we see FL winds of 130, 132kts and another SFMR of 144kts. Could be a gust and biased high, but clearly a high end Atlantic hurricane. Quite impressive.

Don't see the FL winds to support it in this set of data, but there's an unflagged 141kt SFMR on this latest pass (SE to NW).

Latest VDM Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 23:21ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: SamStorm Number & Year: 18 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission: Second flight of a sequence of non-tasked research missions into this systemObservation Number: 17 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 22:59:16ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 13.34N 48.64WB. Center Fix Location: 738 statute miles (1,188 km) to the E (89°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,638m (8,655ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 946mb (27.94 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 200° at 16kts (From the SSW at 18mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles)H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 136kts (156.5mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the NNE (31°) of center fix at 22:57:47ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 123° at 139kts (From the ESE at 160.0mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the NNE (31°) of center fix at 22:57:16ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 103kts (118.5mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the SSW/SW (214°) of center fix at 23:00:53ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 287° at 103kts (From the WNW at 118.5mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 6 nautical miles to the SSW/SW (214°) of center fix at 23:00:46ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,068m (10,066ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,057m (10,030ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 6°C (43°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 139kts (~ 160.0mph) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the NNE (31°) from the flight level center at 22:57:16Z

Probably? Over the last few years there has been an apparent high bias with SFMR in very intense hurricanes. https://twitter.com/AndrewHagen/status/1441893019435872267?s=20

Just shy of Category 5 based on the data so far.

Recon doing NE to SW pass right now. Finding 138, 139kt FL winds and a 134, 136kt SFMR.

First VDM Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)Transmitted: 25th day of the month at 22:34ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: SamStorm Number & Year: 18 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission: Second flight of a sequence of non-tasked research missions into this systemObservation Number: 08 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 25th day of the month at 22:07:46ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 13.29N 48.58WB. Center Fix Location: 742 statute miles (1,194 km) to the E (89°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,627m (8,619ft) at 700mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 945mb (27.91 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 120° at 9kts (From the ESE at 10mph)F. Eye Character: ClosedG. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 9 nautical milesH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 111kts (127.7mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles to the W (273°) of center fix at 22:06:44ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 358° at 106kts (From the N at 122.0mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 4 nautical miles to the W (273°) of center fix at 22:06:49ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 133kts (153.1mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 7 nautical miles to the E (95°) of center fix at 22:09:26ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 177° at 127kts (From the S at 146.1mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 9 nautical miles to the E (94°) of center fix at 22:09:53ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 10°C (50°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,055m (10,023ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 27°C (81°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 4°C (39°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 700mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.01 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mileRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 127kts (~ 146.1mph) which was observed 9 nautical miles to the E (94°) from the flight level center at 22:09:53Z

Western eyewall dropsonde.

East side has the goods. 942.2 extrapolated with a peak FL wind of 127kts and peak SFMR of 133kts. Hell of a compact wind field.

Looks like a west to east pass from recon. Peak FL wind of 106kts and SFMR of 111kts. Extrapolated pressure of 942.1 at about 9,000ft. Might be just shy of the center though.

My goodness.

That's just how it goes. MDR stuff is always high risk high reward if you're looking for US impacts.

That's the flight to sample the environment, while NOAA2 will sample the center. Not sure how many passes they will get given the distance from their takeoff location.

I'm pumped to see what recon finds.

943mb and 140mph at 5pm with recon en route. Forget the track. This is classic MDR eye candy.

Absolutely spectacular. Glad recon is heading out there.

This is about as beautiful an inner core presentation as you'll ever see. Sammy doing work.

What was once 98L was able to take advantage of the favorable environment, and has now become Major Hurricane Sam. Subtropical Storm Teresa also formed. As I mentioned before, my named storm forecast has completely decoupled from the hurricane and MH forecast as a lot of slop has formed. Now I am way ahead of where I need to be on named storms, behind on hurricanes, and exactly where I need to be on majors. Frustrating, but overall the forecast still looks...ok... Peak Season Forecast (Actual) Named Storms: 13 (11) Hurricanes: 9 (4) Major Hurricanes: 5 (3)

Sam becomes the fourth major hurricane of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season.

New version is better so far, but even so the GFS might crush the euro (again) here.

I’m strongly inclined to say no direct US impacts as well, but given that the modeled cutoff is shifting in some cases hundreds of miles between runs I think it’s most prudent to wait for recon to sample the steering environment.

Sat analysis brings this over 100kts with ADT up to 115kts. Overall presentation via satellite imagery and microwave support an upgrade. Sam should easily be a major at 11am if the NHC doesn’t do a special advisory sooner.