WxWatcher007

Ah—yeah that went over my head lol

Huh? Fred is absolutely a TS per recon data. Grace though has basically been an sharp wave from the recon flight yesterday to the recon flight that just ended.

Definitely on an upswing intensity wise. Good FL wind spikes on the eastern side of the system. Some of those are probably convection/burst related, but we weren’t seeing those before.

The latest VDM for Fred Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 23:57ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305 Storm Name: FredStorm Number & Year: 06 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 14Observation Number: 05 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 15th day of the month at 23:28:10ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 27.09N 85.69WB. Center Fix Location: 207 statute miles (333 km) to the WSW (253°) from Tampa, FL, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,432m (4,698ft) at 850mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1000mb (29.53 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 85° at 4kts (From the E at 5mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 35kts (40.3mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles) to the WNW (301°) of center fix at 23:06:00ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 78° at 32kts (From the ENE at 36.8mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 67 nautical miles (77 statute miles) to the WNW (301°) of center fix at 23:05:30ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 38kts (43.7mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 65 nautical miles (75 statute miles) to the SE (130°) of center fix at 23:50:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 206° at 35kts (From the SSW at 40.3mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 67 nautical miles (77 statute miles) to the SE (130°) of center fix at 23:51:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 22°C (72°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)R. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp: Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 850mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.75 nautical milesRemarks Section: Maximum Flight Level Wind: 35kts (~ 40.3mph) which was observed 67 nautical miles (77 statute miles) to the SE (130°) from the flight level center at 23:51:00Z

Not expecting a ton but this one has flown under the radar. Advisories likely by 11pm. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fred, located over the east-central Gulf of Mexico, and on Tropical Depression Grace, located about 100 miles south-southeast of the Dominican Republic. 1. Satellite imagery and radar data from Bermuda indicate that showers and thunderstorms associated with a small but well-defined area of low pressure located northeast of Bermuda have continued to become better organized during the past few hours. If this trend continues, advisories will likely be initiated on a new tropical depression later tonight. The system is forecast to move slowly toward the south or southwest during the next day or so, and then turn westward on Tuesday, passing near or just east and south of Bermuda. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system, and a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for that island tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Zelinsky

Great image grab. It’s trying hard to develop an inner core. If it can wrap all the way around and close off, the rate of intensification could increase.

Advisories on that likely tonight at 11. That’s basically a TD on satellite.

Confirmed pressure drop to 1000mb in center. Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)Transmitted: 15th day of the month at 23:40ZAgency: United States Air Force Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5305 Storm Name: FredStorm Number: 06 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 14Observation Number: 06 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 23Z on the 15th day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 850mb Coordinates: 27.1N 85.7W Location: 207 statute miles (334 km) to the WSW (253°) from Tampa, FL, USA. Marsden Square: 081 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -3m (-10 ft) Other data not available. 925mb 686m (2,251 ft) 23.8°C (74.8°F) 21.9°C (71°F) 170° (from the S) 3 knots (3 mph) 850mb 1,431m (4,695 ft) 24.6°C (76.3°F) About 15°C (59°F) 20° (from the NNE) 12 knots (14 mph) Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 23:28Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 27.11N 85.68W - Time: 23:28:27Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 27.11N 85.68W - Time: 23:30:42Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 115° (from the ESE) - Wind Speed: 4 knots (5 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 45° (from the NE) - Wind Speed: 2 knots (2 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 844mb to 999mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 95° (from the E) - Wind Speed: 3 knots (3 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30404

Was just about to post. Pretty interesting drop. Would like to see what’s happening NE of the center.

Diving deeper into recon—I’m not sure if the NHC does anything at 8pm as they may want to make sure this isn’t a blip, but recon data suggests this is a TS with a closed LLC and multiple uncontaminated FL and SFMR reports confirming minimal TS winds.

Fred isn’t the strongest system ever but I’m impressed by how it has gotten itself off the mat. I expected it to an extent, but it’s really holding tough in the center in the face of moderate shear. Wind is one thing, but there’s a serious flash flooding threat for parts of the SE as this makes its way inland.

I was out while Fred was in the grave but I’m back now!

This is an open discussion IMO. Red tag or not your analytical posts should have a basis in fact/observation. I don’t think anyone should be above critique. How else would we learn anything? Anyway, recon is finally finding a LLC, albeit weak.

Surprised nobody posted. Will likely be a TD soon. Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to updated the discussion of the low-pressure system northeast of Bermuda. The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Fred, located over the east-central Gulf of Mexico, and on Tropical Depression Grace, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea a couple of hundred miles east-southeast of the Dominican Republic. 1. Updated: Satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm activity has become better organized this afternoon in association with a small but well-defined area of low pressure located about 160 miles northeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions appear conducive for continued development, and if these development trends continue, a tropical depression could form tonight while the low moves slowly to the south or south-southwest at about 5 mph, near or to the east of Bermuda. By Tuesday, upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system, and a Tropical Storm Watch could be required for that island later tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Brennan/Brown

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently re-designated Tropical Storm Fred, located over the east-central Gulf of Mexico, and on Tropical Storm Grace, located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea just to the south of Puerto Rico. 1. A small but well-defined low pressure system located about 175 miles northeast of Bermuda continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of this low during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form while it moves slowly to the south or south-southwest at about 5 mph, near or to the east of Bermuda. By Tuesday, upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for tropical cyclone formation. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Berg

Could be. It’s still sheared but it’s looking better structurally and it’s over some of the warmest water in the basin.

What a mess. Recon on its way to examine further.

Elsa, Fred, and Grace (probably) not too long from now. That said, the other two managed a respectable recovery so it’s not out of the realm of possibility Grace does too, but high ceiling talk which I’ve admittedly been leading is off the table for now.

24 hours ago I couldn’t imagine it’d look better than Grace, but here we are lol

No need for a long post today Grace, having seen how well running into the buzzsaw of the Greater Antilles worked out for Elsa and Fred, seems to have every intention of trying it too. lol

Tropical Storm Fred Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 840 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 ...REMNANTS OF FRED RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM... Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Fred has regained tropical storm status over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Tropical Storm Warnings will be issued for portions of the northern Gulf coast on the 11 AM EDT/ 10 AM CDT/1500 UTC advisory. SUMMARY OF 840 AM EDT...1240 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.9N 84.7W ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven

Fred has regained TS status.

Yep. Grace seems hell bent on taking the Fred route into the Greater Antilles buzzsaw. *shrug*

Slowly but surely, Fred is pulling itself together.