WxWatcher007

I think going to town is unlikely too, but I'd probably still give it about a 20% chance FWIW. There is still a fair amount of space left for intensification. Maybe on the eastern side. It wouldn't take much to get over the threshold but they still need to sample that part.

Second recon plane (Mission 10) finds an extrapolated pressure of 991.7mb while flying at ~10k ft.

No doubt in my mind it becomes a hurricane. It was just shy yesterday and it's more organized so far today. For a shot at anything higher than a mid level cat 1 it would need to start intensifying very soon IMO, but keep in mind that intensification is a dynamic process. Sometimes you develop an inner core that's steady state or gradually intensifies (forecasted here), and sometimes--usually due to hot towers developing and rotating around an eyewall--you get a more robust pace of intensification. Given the propensity of Henri to fire deep and consistent convection near what is at least a mid level center, and the difficulty it has had so far to fully develop an inner core, I think it's too soon to make any declaratory statements about how intensification will play out.

We have the center dropsonde from the early recon flight (Mission 9). Pressure looks more or less steady from last night, maybe a few mb lower given the wind at the surface. That flight is now heading for a NW to SE pass. Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 10:29ZAgency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)Aircraft: Lockheed WP-3D Orion (Reg. Num. N42RF)Storm Name: HenriStorm Number: 08 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 9Observation Number: 03 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )Part A... Date: Near the closest hour of 10Z on the 21st day of the month Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 700mb Coordinates: 33.3N 72.7W Location: 211 statute miles (339 km) to the SE (130°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA. Marsden Square: 116 ( About ) Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed 1000mb -37m (-121 ft) This level does not exist in this area of the storm above the surface level. 996mb (29.42 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 25.7°C (78°F) 230° (from the SW) 31 knots (36 mph) 925mb 652m (2,139 ft) 24.0°C (75.2°F) 21.6°C (71°F) 225° (from the SW) 19 knots (22 mph) 850mb 1,391m (4,564 ft) 19.8°C (67.6°F) 18.4°C (65°F) 285° (from the WNW) 15 knots (17 mph) 700mb 3,053m (10,016 ft) 14.0°C (57.2°F) About 8°C (46°F) 65° (from the ENE) 8 knots (9 mph) Information About Radiosonde: - Launch Time: 10:06Z - About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction. Remarks Section... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in center. Highest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 33.26N 72.72W - Time: 10:06:33Z Lowest altitude where wind was reported: - Location: 33.26N 72.70W - Time: 10:11:11Z Mean Boundary Level Wind (mean wind in the lowest 500 geopotential meters of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 230° (from the SW) - Wind Speed: 32 knots (37 mph) Deep Layer Mean Wind (average wind over the depth of the sounding): - Wind Direction: 255° (from the WSW) - Wind Speed: 14 knots (16 mph) - Depth of Sounding: From 695mb to 995mb Average Wind Over Lowest Available 150 geopotential meters (gpm) of the sounding: - Lowest 150m: 155 gpm - 5 gpm (509 geo. feet - 16 geo. feet) - Wind Direction: 230° (from the SW) - Wind Speed: 31 knots (36 mph) Sounding Software Version: AEV 30406 Part B: Data for Significant Levels... Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels Level Air Temperature Dew Point 996mb (Surface) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 25.7°C (78°F) 949mb 24.2°C (75.6°F) 23.1°C (74°F) 917mb 24.4°C (75.9°F) 20.8°C (69°F) 850mb 19.8°C (67.6°F) 18.4°C (65°F) 773mb 15.8°C (60.4°F) 14.8°C (59°F) 750mb 17.2°C (63.0°F) About 11°C (52°F) 695mb 13.2°C (55.8°F) About 8°C (46°F) Significant Wind Levels Level Wind Direction Wind Speed 996mb (Surface) 230° (from the SW) 31 knots (36 mph) 953mb 230° (from the SW) 32 knots (37 mph) 943mb 235° (from the SW) 28 knots (32 mph) 931mb 225° (from the SW) 17 knots (20 mph) 892mb 250° (from the WSW) 18 knots (21 mph) 865mb 265° (from the W) 13 knots (15 mph) 850mb 285° (from the WNW) 15 knots (17 mph) 799mb 285° (from the WNW) 24 knots (28 mph) 787mb 275° (from the W) 15 knots (17 mph) 779mb 285° (from the WNW) 10 knots (12 mph) 763mb 265° (from the W) 4 knots (5 mph) 695mb 65° (from the ENE) 8 knots (9 mph)

The second low level recon plane is now descending into Henri.

This is really where recon earns their keep. IR and microwave can only tell us so much. It's the real time observations from recon that can tell us what's really happening. Really interested to see how much tilt there still is and whether the features we see are working their way down to the surface.

Recon finds extrapolated pressure of 992.4mb from ~10k ft flight height. Dropsonde would confirm surface pressure.

I use two sites. Look for Mission #9 as that's the one in the storm now. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/#NOAA2-0908A-HENRI (for recon location imagery and graphics) http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi (for detailed text data)

First recon flight of the day descending into the storm now. I'm watching 1) has the tilt been eliminated 2) has the wind field contracted and organized into an inner core and 3) are the FL winds that were impressive last night starting to translate to the surface as a result.

Yeah let me get in before the flood of storm cancel posts that we know are coming... IR can be deceiving, as I hope we've all seen the last few days. Despite what you think you see on first glance this morning on visible and IR, under the hood microwave imagery shows a more organized storm, with much less tilt and another attempt to form an inner core. Henri has been trying to do this the entire time, but the difference now is that with lessening shear, the attempt is more likely (though not guaranteed) to be successful. Yesterday This morning it's still very fragile just based on this imagery. You don't see the deepest convection fully wrapped around and until that happens this attempt at organization could all still collapse, but it looks ok at the moment.

Seeing guidance windshield wipe isn't terribly surprising. That's pretty common from what I've seen with tropical. Heck, it happens for winter systems too. As for recon, I'm not sure what they saw on radar but when examining the area I didn't see anything that stood out.

Hopefully recon can check it out.

Very interesting VDM Maybe an eye trying to form deeper in the convection per recon. Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 3:28ZAgency: United States Air ForceAircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307Storm Name: HenriStorm Number & Year: 08 in 2021 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)Mission Number: 7Observation Number: 17 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )A. Time of Center Fix: 21st day of the month at 2:59:50ZB. Center Fix Coordinates: 32.04N 73.60WB. Center Fix Location: 248 statute miles (400 km) to the SSE (153°) from Cape Hatteras, NC, USA.C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,417m (4,649ft) at 850mbD. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 998mb (29.47 inHg)E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 90° at 12kts (From the E at 14mph)F. Eye Character: Not AvailableG. Eye Shape: Not AvailableH. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 38kts (43.7mph)I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 33 nautical miles (38 statute miles) to the ENE (57°) of center fix at 2:49:30ZJ. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 148° at 52kts (From the SSE at 59.8mph)K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 41 nautical miles (47 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix at 2:47:00ZL. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 24kts (27.6mph)M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 64 nautical miles (74 statute miles) to the SW (229°) of center fix at 3:19:30ZN. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 317° at 37kts (From the NW at 42.6mph)O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the SW (230°) of center fix at 3:13:00ZP. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 24°C (75°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,529m (5,016ft)R. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)R. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not AvailableS. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Wind, Pressure and TemperatureS. Fix Level: 850mbT. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical milesT. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical milesRemarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded... Maximum Flight Level Wind: 70kts (~ 80.6mph) which was observed 85 nautical miles (98 statute miles) to the SE (130°) from the flight level center at 1:32:00Z Remarks Section - Additional Remarks... SECONDARY EYE-LIKE FEATURE VISIBLE ON RADAR 48NM SE OF FL FIX

Yes on both counts.

Meanwhile, Grace has become a major hurricane.

You mean upshear, right? Agree though--there's improvement at flight level, but not where it matters. Not yet at least.

Looks like that center did jump NE.

Even if this comes in a little stronger I think wind is likely to be second to rainfall. Problem is that I think even with lower possible winds the tree damage will still get done due to saturated soils and the long duration gusts.

NHC has it get to 85 mph, which suggests that it will get its act together in the next 12 hours or so as shear decreases. Once it does it then becomes a question of whether it will maximize potential in the environment. We put 75 mph at landfall out in our first call, but these intensity forecasts always have be leery when a system is trying so hard in a hostile environment like the last 24 hours.

Thanks. Here's the writeup for anyone interested. First call tonight. Final tomorrow. https://www.southernconnecticutweather.com/forecasters-discussion/high-impact-event-expected-in-connecticut-as-tropical-storm-henri-approaches-new-england-this-weekendscw-first-call-forecast Seeing 65-70kt FL winds now in that SE convection.

Looks like the center might have taken a jog NE under the better convection per that recon pass. Still disorganized under the hood, but it's still trying to pull it together. It has struggled to do so today but it becomes easier as shear decreases.

Was busy lol. I'm just now looking at everything again.

Only recon is going to be able to confirm that. IR and recon look increasingly good though for future intensification.

599 WTNT43 KNHC 202042 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Henri Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082021 500 PM EDT Fri Aug 20 2021 Henri appears to be slowly gaining strength. Deep convection has been increasing during the past few hours and the upper-level outflow continues to become better established on the east side of the circulation. However, the low-level center is still located near the northwestern edge of the deep convection due to ongoing northerly wind shear. An ASCAT-B pass from a few hours ago showed peak winds of around 55 kt, with the strongest winds on the southeast side of the circulation. Based on this data, the initial intensity is set at 60 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Henri again this evening and the data the plane collects will be very helpful in estimating the storm's strength and structure. The tropical storm appears to be making the advertised turn to the right, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 335/6 kt. A trough over the central Appalachians is expected to cut off tonight, and the combination of that feature and a building ridge to the east/northeast of Henri should cause the storm to accelerate to the north on Saturday. The latest model runs have generally trended to the left again and are a bit faster, with most showing landfall in about 48 hours. Most of the models now show a slight left turn before landfall as Henri gets caught in the circulation of the aforementioned trough. The latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble members continue to span a region from near New York City to Cape Cod for the landfall point. Based on the latest consensus aids, the official track forecast has again been nudged to the west of the previous one and shows landfall occurring on Sunday. After day 3, Henri is forecast to eject northeastward. The ongoing northerly shear is expected to decrease tonight, and the global models show a favorable upper-level wind pattern developing over the storm through the weekend. These more conducive atmospheric conditions combined with the warm Gulf Stream waters should allow Henri to strengthen to a hurricane tonight or early Saturday, with additional intensification expected into Saturday night. By early Sunday, however, Henri is forecast to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream, and that should end its opportunity for strengthening. Although steady to rapid weakening is forecast while Henri moves over cooler waters south of Long Island and New England, it will likely still be at or very near hurricane intensity when it reaches the coast. Post-tropical transition is forecast to occur by day 3 and the system should dissipate in 4 or 5 days. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast of the center of Henri since impacts will extend far from the center. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge inundation is expected to begin Sunday in portions of Long Island, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeastern Massachusetts, where a Storm Surge Warning has been issued. Dangerous storm surge is possible beginning Sunday in western portions of Long Island and Connecticut in the Storm Surge Watch area. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Hurricane conditions are expected to begin Sunday in portions of Long Island and Connecticut, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Hurricane conditions are possible Sunday across portions of Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts. 3. Heavy rainfall may lead to considerable flash, urban, and small stream flooding, along with the potential for widespread minor and isolated moderate river flooding, over portions of Long Island and New England Sunday into Monday. 4. Swells from Henri will continue to affect much of the east coast of the U.S. through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 31.2N 73.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 32.8N 73.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 35.8N 72.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 38.9N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 40.8N 72.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 42.0N 72.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 72H 23/1800Z 42.9N 72.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 24/1800Z 43.8N 68.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi