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olafminesaw

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Everything posted by olafminesaw

  1. olafminesaw
    Lots of fish activity
  2. olafminesaw
    Already flash flooding in southern Nevada
  3. olafminesaw
    May just miss peak. It's about to move over much cooler waters.
  4. olafminesaw
    Isla Socorro, which is about 80 miles East of where the center passed, recorded sustained winds of 45 mph and gusts of 70 mph
  5. olafminesaw
    Seems the inner core is still quite small
  6. olafminesaw
    Climo is beginning to work in our favor, about 2/3 of the time the prior two weeks are hotter than the upcoming two weeks.
  7. olafminesaw
    As much as it's disappointing to have missed the peak, this is vital data in terms of determining how quickly Hilary will regain strength. I suspect it's mixing out a bit of dry air ingested during the ERC and is just now starting to restrengthen, since the ERC completed several hours ago
  8. olafminesaw
    The San Diego WFO has never been under a day 3 high risk. The last day 1 high risk was Feb 14 2019
  9. olafminesaw
    Like like a plume of moisture (PRE? Atmospheric river?), could cause flash flooding well before Hillary arrives for the dry side of the divide
  10. olafminesaw
    ERC well underway. Seems to be going rather smoothly.
  11. olafminesaw
    Convection wrapped fully around the eye the past couple frames. Could easily be a major by 8pm
  12. olafminesaw
    The Salton sea averages 5-6 inches of rain per year and the saline body of water is highly toxic. Honestly not sure what a years worth of rain in 48 hours will do.
  13. olafminesaw
    Kathleen (1976)is a very good analog. Described as a 1 in 160 year event https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Kathleen
  14. olafminesaw
    Pretty unbelievable honestly. I can't imagine more than a weak TS by the time it reaches CA, but could be a significant flood threat
  15. olafminesaw
    TFW the first TS landfall in the US this season could be San Diego.
  16. olafminesaw
    Current CAMs seem to suggest the morning MCS will be the main event (strong to borderline severe storms), with some scattered strong storms behind it. Usually these large MCS systems do put a damper on several storms later in the day, even if they clear out by mid morning.
  17. olafminesaw
    Seems like timing is the big question. May move through too early in the day. Parameters aren't as impressive either way, but a nice line of storms regardless.
  18. olafminesaw
  19. olafminesaw
    Bumpass has a good view Hehe
  20. olafminesaw
  21. olafminesaw
    Yeah, for sure. While I love me some severe storms, it's a fine line between a good show and property damage, insurance claims, or worse. My gut is this will be a pretty classic widespread strong/severe wind outbreak, but nothing high end and not much in the way of tornadoes.
  22. olafminesaw
    First 45% wind prob for RAH since Oct 2019, first Moderate risk for Blacksburg WFO since April 2019. I think this one deserves a thread!
  23. olafminesaw
    Enhanced risk for most tommorow, primarily wind driven. Since the enhanced category was introduced in 2015, RAH hasn't been under one during the month of August
  24. olafminesaw
    Although it's disappointing that the mountains will prevent more significant rainfall today, it's nice to see a forecast high in the 70s. This brings to an end a 42 day streak of highs at 80 or higher, which is fairly close to the average for the longest stretch of the year
  25. olafminesaw
    True, although water temps still certainly a limiting factor, even with such crazy anomalies.
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