Typhoon Tip

today feels completely normal for Anguish 20th

the persistent 80 ... 90W trough leitmotif this summer does offer some intriguing questions should one of these approach the "key slot" from N of PR to the outer Bahamas. It's not like that recurring theme makes that one factor hard to imagine happening... However, the weak and expanded HC is not the best circumstance. Home grown would be better... obviously. But for MDR puppies, they'll tend to get picked up too early by briefly plumbed troughs or weakness. Beta drift will become dominate track guidance early in life, when the steering levels are weaker ...which then added to the former lowers the total shitty chance scenario. It doesn't have to be coherently observed ... we're talking tendency here. I don't know if the trough is even going to be 80/90W. It's modeled to come back by D5 in some products. The EPS is completely wrongly constructing the hemisphere day 3-10 on the 00z guidance but...there's likely some members farther west with that axis.

There's been a signal via telecon that emerged some 2.5 weeks ago. But where? right - Persistence argues brightly ... not in New England. And frankly, what's emerged since among the operational guidance members, is a compromised(ing) solution between that aspect you've been musing over ( the trough reloading for different reasons imaginable ..heh), and a west biased climo dome. I don't see any reason why said compromise cannot be so... We'll have to see. I'll just reserve one observation ... the ensemble means are more coherent than the operational runs have been, and... offer some suggestion that while the ridge is likely west biased ...the eastern end would still allow under belly heat episodes. I'm not sure the runs overall are not too amplified over the Maritimes, too -

Wow epic morning. 72/57. Brilliant sun so gonna warm up but for now

Obsevationally ...seems these scenarios are emerging already - perhaps their coherency improves in future seasons and years, but already there's 'tendencies' I also have a hypothesis that there is a unique feed-back ( constructive interference) circumstance between western N/A 'heat genesis domain' and your descriptions above. The CC signal is tending to transfix a R-wave structures ... perhaps in no small part due to the processes that you're speculating. That domes the west, then within ...particularly high/favorable surface kinetic generation eventually integrates heights and adds back to the super-synoptic signal. It would nicely explain why modeling was consummately showing extended range ridge eruptions over eastern mid latitudes, only to have them decay moving extended ranges into the mid range ... and it did this - as far as I can tell - every time, since late Spring. It’s as tho the physics don’t or slip emergence of these synergistic results farther out in time - which probably makes sense considering. Here we are, attempting to raise heights again ... we'll see - so this is kind of twofold - I’m talking about both climate change related matter… But also how perhaps is effecting guidance performance over the N/A continent.

Come hell or high snow of a winter across N/A … the ambient hemisphere will be velocity saturated at mid latitudes. bank it-

What does “@typhoon_tip” mean we’re you addressing me ? not sure if that’s an accident of the interface It comes back to A ≠ B ... weather happens (ie, gradient is the difference between A and B ), vs the A = B test state ... nothing happening. “modularity” is the actual event(s) moving the A ≠ B state toward the A = B

mm.. the majority of guidance ( the NAM is just on roids for some reason ) closing off contours with some kind of coastal is ....well, kind of doesn't seem realistic but be that as it may, if that happens... ? nothing but heavy rain bundles

More likely just a heat spell ...magnitude to be determined. Sometimes these signals can be eroded at both ends all the way down to just a two day warm sector. I spoke a bit at length about the global telecon behavior so ...yeeeah, that lends a bit more to it. But I gotta say, I've been noticing a lot more over the past 7 years, times when leading telecon spread/projections leave something to be desired with the realized patterns that resulted, too. Between summer index correlation dimming, and that latter aspect ... have to be conservative for the time being. The signal is there for now, though

man... the NAM 32KM is really going nuts trying to use convective physics to engineer a near bombogen sub synoptic scaled low. fascinating. excruciating nerd factor of 10 on the scaled of dweeblism but fascinating for someone

OH, it's not in dispute. It's a factoid of fascination issue - that we're doing in low temperatures. Which ... indirectly, ( if holds water, pun absolutely intended to irritate muah hahaha) ...is tantamount to really saying we're smashing DP records. Certainly nocturnal clouds play a role, too.

yeah... elaborated about this signal emerging more coherently after maybe the 15th this morning. pretty sure it was one sentenced and then the rest of if was summarily opted out haha

Alright ... I'll bite. Yes there's a burgeoning heat signal between ~ the 17th and ... sometime out there after the 20th. Multi telecon index behavior in the projections are converging. A modest +EPO collapsing toward neutral, which precedes the -PNA mode ... While this is going on, the recent GLAMM trends suggest the mode of that is attempting to go (or go more...) positive. Now ... GLAMM is not a modeled state; this is an extrapolation based upon trend/behavior. This is the time of the year for such a trend to work ...so, we'll see. This latter aspect adds confidence, because that being positive is really like the scalar measure of the subtropical ridged circulation mode. So... although telecon correlations become a little less useful in the summer season, these are super-synoptic forcing signature that are tougher to ignore. (I also love the utter suppression of the MJO as it's trying desperately to emerge out of the RMM in phase 8, yet both hemispheres are sitting on it like a playground bully ... but I'm not sure if that has any meaning to this beyond my taking Schadenfreude in watching the El Nino squirm.. lol) What all that ^ means is that we should see at least a temporary ( how long remains to be seen) relaxation of this weird summer version of a polar jet. It's been unusually coherent, odd season for that behavior... We typically see the hemisphere evolve toward the lower frequency base-state, yet these defined R-waves definitive jets have persistence. It's also interesting that all these insane heat aspects have been observed S of 40 N ( for everywhere in the world except the eastern seaboard of N/A) .. It doesn't hurt that the distantly framed guidance actually show it some, too.

I am suspicious about how those New England departures came to be. I suspect the ballast was in the diurnal lows.

This was mentioned at the recent conference here in Norwood, the SSTs contributing to 2020 November

mmm yeah but, these are touching down and snapping off tree tops and breaking windows here and there. ...tearing siding off boat houses too... they're on the weak side, but I don't know if dual-pol is helping them actually touch down, just the same. But like you said, ... uptick is noted.

I feel like it's been 7 ratters. Roughly since 2015. but yeah, either way. I don't personally consider years that gave a pine sagging snow event in the springs. I think of spring events almost uniquely Man, it's really tough to slip into autumn mode then summarily have that same mode ( save a single cold snap and/or one storm in 5 months...) pretty much define the climate until the following March.

Cape's a new tornado alley ... seems the last 8 years has had a lot of those lowered LCL deals

We may actually make it out of this summer having never escaped this trough pattern. It may have happened in the summer of 2000 … otherwise, I can’t recall. It’s been warm. It’s been cool. Mostly just wet as the only headline.

Oh, I'm sure all these charts will fail and it'll go ahead and finally materialize now that we've caught it in the act. Lol

Hasn't all this awe in modern material science figured out how to engineer skis designed for dirt and pebbles yet? Then we can bun-out over skiing at all times of the year, and we don't have worry about a future when even the median altitude of sky country falls rainy victim to you-know-what

I've always a reserved a bit of curiosity as to how exactly those seasonal outlooks are framed/initialized, and then run. I don't think they are merely the ensemble means and or operational version ... cut loose for 1,800 hours ... Come back in the next morning, set coffee down, enter UN/PW and open the in-house API that renders the output to U/I in order to dopamine what has to be the biggest bun and weinerschnitzel job that's ever existed in the dragon realm of dweebdom: getting paid to do that. Or maybe that's all it is... Let the models just run for several hours and see what they come up with. But, I cannot help but suspect they are conditioning the input parameters and perturbing the general physics around some other longer/fuller integrated stuff. So .. whatever runs is more adulterated with theoretical aspects, ultimately less organic. Which then the cynic and perhaps even arrogance to my own hypothesis kick in and I get annoyed. LOL Seriously though, I just wonder if that is a ENSO by-product causing that mid latitude girdle of lower geopotential heights. The other aspect that sticks out to me is that the warm heights dominate the whole globe. If it weren't for that ring around the PV look ... there would be very little offsetting negative regions. That's what really sticks out to me, not the 'avenue to still get our entertaining winter' ... I digress. Anyway, are we to also suppose the PV warm heights to mean -AO ... ? Lot of opportunity for experimentation this year. The ENSOs may be quieted by CC/warming the ambient mid latitudes - then absorbing that forcing ( some...). There is also a correlation with the Phase 7,8,1,2 of the MJO ... with the -AO ( lags notwithstanding). Should these also falter? It seems the circuitry in these index relationships may be getting stretched if not cut at times. If that is so, this product suite above might have the right idea 30 years ago ... oops. Then we can get into the over active Solar storm year preceding - that's correlated to +AO actually... It just comes back to 'how is this model constructed.' It'll be interesting to see how all these correlations perform this year.

While not at the latitude of York Beach, I was at Jennes Beach/Rye NH two weekends ago, and the water was 72. As we bounced around in the surf, ever so occasionally a waft of chillier water would graze your feet, indicative no doubt of the thin nature of the surface warmth. We had just spent some three or more weeks with persistent SSW to SSE surface wind exchanges. I knew when that cold front a week ago Friday came through, it was the first one to successfully unseat the DP rich air... And instead of the winds going torpid ...only to resume a S/SSW motion later the next afternoon, that warm SST N of Cape Ann was going to be no match for three days of light NW flow and DPs crashing from 74 to 50. By early last week it was already low to mid 60s near shore buoys. Bye-bye warm water. On an indirectly related not... That entire Labrador marine heat wave event that occurred this late spring and early summer was most likely more about an atmospheric anomaly that persisted these SSE trades from the M/A all the way up to NF ...doing so for an extended period of time. Speculation -

...and yet the advertised ridging never has... I don't see any compelling reason why any kind of DP this or heat that is likelier than just having the extended range guidance continue to correct right back to this pot hole in the flow over eastern N/A - whence aging those time ranges into nearer intervals. We'll see - I'm not predicting failure here... I'm just sort of taking the persistence road for the time being. Because we've seen pattern changes, big DPs, be it ridging delivering higher heat after D10, for the last 20 days ... Yet as of this morning it is still after D10.

Not sure how we can differentiate "non-zero" from "looks pretty meh" LOL. ...I mean think about it, meh typically means unimpressed, but unimpressed doesn't in and of itself mean there is no chance at all. God I love being annoying No but it's weird. The atmosphere is situating the traditional surface features more late Monday/evening, but it looks better for mid level evolution during Tuesday morning.