Typhoon Tip

this is pretty cool... logan has a nw wind at 3 kts at 39 f. brockton, 12 or so miles as the crow flies? not far away. they are 58 f with a s wind

okay .. yeah. but, it's a problem in culture/society though. there's a disrespect also where people think they have the right to believe in falsity because/when they don't understand - like because the complexity eludes them, it must not be true. it's a weird ego toxicity about our peoples. lol (hint, half truth/droll humor too )

it's not black or white like that. just sayn' every situation is taken uniquely, with at least some deference to known influences that can and typically do force things to happen - and the additional 'art' there is that the amounts also vary. this latter aspect is crucial. those that discuss aspects out in time are operating at a higher confidence than 'just not knowing,' because they may ( or may not ...) have access intellectually to what those influences are.

having an anticedent -epo that precedes the onset +d(pna) is a very effective means for laying in a negative temperature anomaly along 40n ... all the way across. the -nao, particularly one biased over the western limb, that's not hurting to maintain cold air - it's just not abundantly necessary. i don't speak for everyone but much of the 'hostility' that's emerged over the last decade ( i suspect ) is like 'we were always lied to' resentment. sort of. but it was a good thing, because really these winters and their ongoing observation along the life-cycle of so many events ..et al, they have been exposing that aspect. previous to that, the 1990s popularized the nao as though it were this silver bullet for things to happen and it just was never true. in fact, the former circumstance presages/excites cyclogen parametrics between colorado-like to cape cod-ness .. in general, which ride along the baroclinic axis/ thickness gradient. so long as one's latitude is n of that storm's track ... probably going to do alright. until 2056 or so, when cold air just simply mean 42 instead of 32 ... lol

that's quite the big storm there on the euro - the thing is, it's showing really the incredible potential inherent to that week - i mean, it's getting to that solution with handicaps. a bigger western ridge and that's a triple stream phaser... very rare indeed. where is f* is the western ridge! jesus h anyway, regardless of the idealized state ... which never happens anyway, this run (operational) did show at least more western ridging and immediately that happens. long way to to go

12z gefs was incrementally improved over the previous two run cycle re the 17th - 24th, wrt the handling of the pac and the subsequent ( implied ) forcing over western n/a - forcing it has been somehow skipping. heh. edit, oh you already posted that -

i think it could be ... "could be" - not looking for anyone to shish kabob any nuts over it. it's just that for those of us open to the research, we're getting bombarded by articles like this, https://phys.org/news/2024-12-ai-earth-peak-hottest-years.html ... and sometimes the shoe fits? the trend you observed has been happening in all dimension, at the scale of the integrated planetary system. the huge T surge in 2023 .. well that list is huge and growing where at both wholesale, and quadrature, empirical/registered data is outpacing 'well-informed' anticipation basis' it just seems reasonable enough that if the whole world is doing this, there are likely regions of quadrature that also do irregularities along a general upward modality in climate. having said that, yeah... there could be several years of a fractal that sort of like, don't outpace ... but it ain't like we're going to "inpace" either - it seems abundantly more wise to assume we are rising regardless, but is a matter of whether it is subtle or gross. when ever there is bias to rise(fall) the anomaly behaviors/extremes will tend to favor which . it's interesting i'm personally "testing" this year. we've had a so-far early cooler expression, thanks to a -epo--> +d(pna) about a month ago. it struck at perfect solar calendar time, right as we were entering the solar minimum. you get one of these on feb 1 and you may not get a month out of it before it starts moderating on you... ( this is part of why my personal druthers likes the front loaded winter variety ) my test is to see if this wasn't just a seasonal prelapse like we've seen in recent years, just happening to have occurred a month later... or if this is leading to a front loader - not sure but it feels ( if not altogether rationally LOL ) like we're at the threshold of determining over these next couple of weeks.

meh ...don't read in too deep on that. it was for droll snark. Das got it. it's like laugh a little

my mini splits all shut off for a 15 minutes and the indicator panels switched readouts to "dF" which means defrost mode. it's the 30 f air with a dp of 29.5

this is fascinating ...https://phys.org/news/2024-12-ai-earth-peak-hottest-years.html

then cc happened and the reticence to acceptance, if not lack of understanding, both drive a dire psychology that became a detriment to morale and those merryville vision are more like the civility state of Book Of Eli …

by the way, the epo's need a bigger qualitative assessment manifold as far as where the positive height anomalies situate during the negative mode. it's not just whether they exist or not. part of the problem with the epo usage is that people don't do that. - or they don't know how to really do it the right way. not sure who wrote what but the topic caught my attention skimming back. how these indexes teleconnect depends where the anomalies materialize within the domain. they're all like this. wpo ...epo...nao... etc, and it is not just 'where' the anomalies situated, either ... there is a timing in the onset versus decay, too. it's complex. one thing you should look for with either a static -epo, or -d(epo), is whether there is a lagged appearance of a +d(pna). this hand off of mass fields is much, much better correlated to winter events between the lakes and the ma/ne regions.

it's going to make this next 30 yours an interesting sequence of changes. 29 and still air 62 in turbine s gales ... flash freezing cold

near miss last evening huh ... its 29 here right now, classic tuck after it was 39 at 10pm and the rain was ending. if the tuck had happened just 3 hour sooner, we might have turned back back to snow/ice.

... there are still important changes being modeled among the ensemble means out over the pacific, changes that may, and really should, force a downstream ridge over the western mid lat continent. the signal is a favorable modulation for winter enthusiasts. so long as that is the case, there's a reasonable chance that the state of the modeling cinema would modulate that way in the days to come ... i get it that the average user needs to see the operational lines of snow on the mirror with a 20 dollar bill of a pattern rolled up, but in this situation we have to look deeper and wait unfortunately. patience is a virtuosity of principle that's seldom employed in practice. i know it's hard when it comes to this because ... this isn't waiting for vacation day - not quite the same type of anticipation because of the whole addiction thing. haha no but the 18z gfs yesterday took a rather coherent step toward the better, with +pnap, a look that really should be emerging ... not going away. i realize the runs since did just that. the thing is ... the flow looks terribly unbalanced if this present cinema for the 17th -24th were to succeed. if the ens means are correct with that fantastic signal for troughing n-ne of hawaii, the flow across mid lat n/a would almost certainly need to change, and physically driven toward a western ridge. i am wondering if pac changes may flee the runs ... which would be fantastic. it would be like negative time/going backward.

mm didn't really like the direction of the ensemble means overnight... what's interesting is that the pacific outlook/changes appeared to still be in tact as far as spatial and spatial-temporal aspects, but the ens means ( worst offender, gefs ) are actually going the wrong direction with the flow down stream across the continent. the means is attempting less ridge response ..even looking increasing zonal down wind of that deep trough situated n-ne of hawaii. that's the wrong correlation/direction. compare this below to the previous 222 hours, and the modulation is going an unexpected direction. we'll see

it wasn't an "Ayer" event .. lol. i get the context there but there's enough new users and/or youngins amongst us that it's probably taken literally? i can see the take away being 'who cares about Ayer' or something like that anyway it was a ne ct to nw ri and metrowest of boston and up... so sne regional scaled and included much of the interior. too bad i never saved those write ups i made back in the day. i even received accolades for those efforts but i don't have those just laying around and i'm on lunch break and yadda yadda yadda. not sure there is a positive bust in history, dating back to the emergence of satellite and modeling ( anything before that would understandable ...) that can hold a candle to the shear enormity of forecasting 1-3" of glop in the hills and cat-paws in the valley, only have a uniform 15 to 24" fall in 5 hours at 26F !! that's in 1997, too. wasn't like today's standards, but ... it wasn't exactly piece of shit tech either.

This is intended for a long lead experimental outlook. There is a very coherent large scale signal emerging in the deep mid and extended range, roughly 10 to 13 days from now, spanning the Pacific circulation ... and how that transmits forcing across the conus is intriguing. Using the EPS mean from 00z, we see the changes up stream over the Pacific Basin. Below is the D6 hemispheric layout, followed by the D11, indicating a rather rapid onset of wholesale mass field deltas - particularly notable, .. the region N-NE of Hawaii. As the annotation states...it doesn't have to. There are idiosyncratic ways by which the mass of the atmosphere is conserved; given that all this takes place in 3-dimension spatial differentials and ad nausium popsicle headaches... the short version is that it's not always always very visible. but, in the ideal sense, the ridge responds more, and there is a coupled trough response down wind that often hosts index restoration events. The numerical teleconnectors are showing some new sagging in the EPO, with additional amplitude in the PNA. These subtle albeit non-zero value nuances I suspect are the beginnings of suggesting an active interlude ..rough with the timing of the solstic give or take.

yeah ...i'd watch the 20th along the tv/ma route. it's obviously vague at this range but that fits the canonical timing wrt to mode change induced correction events. h.a. and all that ...

i actually thought the teleconnector (numeric) mode review looked a little better this morning. if perhaps only by a small increment, better. warm side of the modes were collapsing neutral amid the various sources (regarding their numbers for key geographic domains) resulted even better +pnap - one that fits the general scope of the pacific mode as we approach the holiday. now, this was last night's business. it's a small increment and it could prove noisy fake. i'm not sure i lean 'noise-bad' though. i will add .. i still think the western n/a continent flow structure could build more ridge out west, given the scale of the height falls n-ne of hawaii. having said that ... the eps is trending toward a better fit - appeasing my personal hang up on that.. heh. but here we can see the most improved version of this +pna to date. this proooobably has a few members actually developing events at this point, but ... in deference to reality here, we are talking 276 hours so there's no blame to go around yet -

yeah, the ribbon echo squall might have some performance along it. but out ahead, i suspect some sporadic power outages ... perhaps a bit more concentration of that over the coastal plain of se zones, but more like a climate wind scenario. the low is 990 mb up in vt. if that were deeper perhaps. not sure the pgf is really huge enough here. standard ekman reduction/frictional drag may be enough to keep the gust maxes down without a lot of thermal inversion.

funny thing is... wind excitement is almost always over sold in forecasting, because the sounding stability wasn't quite enough. so which is it. lol

what's really needed for the morally well grounded wind damage hobbyists is for gradient to be squeezed in the region south of the warm boundary, and west of the cold front. that's a. then, the actual vertical sounding through the pgf to suggest open or at least limited positive static stability. 7c/km should do it... if these aren't apparent, then the wind will spear the skies overhead a not be realized in the lowest levels. this thing reminds me of a wind event from a synoptics recently where se mass took a decent hit ... but nw of boston's inversion remained just enough intact to rescue them from the burden of having fun and excitement -

lol, oh ...that's the other thing too - models will tend to magnify everything that emerges over the model horizon; deescalation seems to be an automatic requirement. haha i like the metaphor of the new moon just over eastern horizon as the sun sets in the west. looks like a sci-fi dystopian collision sequence is getting under way... but, rest assured, as the ominous rises over those next couple of hours ...it just fades into the same old ordinary smaller orb of mystery that for some weird reason, empirical data correlates to sci-fi dystopian murder rate increasing at the same rate that the moon's collision chances went down ... fascinating. humanity ftl - anyway, just havin' fun there. the point is, the model magnification thing -

heh ..that's a mantra but it's not one that is actually very well supported in data. in fact, when it comes to transitioning the eastern mid latitude continent from warm to cool, that transition direction tends to verify faster than initial guidance' out at the temporal range of whence the confidence improves. transitioning from cool to warm ... that is typically when there is pre-lapsing. just in case: as point of eye-rolling ..., this shouldn't be confused with actual weather tending to over perform warmth in general. relative to any pattern foot, spanning the last 20 years - and especially so over the last 10 of those two decades - if the dailies end up warmer than guidance, that does not appear to be so much pattern handling, but in an all dimensions aspect. there's a tendency for cold air masses to modify ticks warmer, relative to guidance, and warmer one's to over perform.