Typhoon Tip

Dry slot brightening is moving swiftly N ... NY area/western LI appear to be 'bacon' now ('BKN' ) when observing hi res vis satellite this hour, and it's about to enter S. CT.

Ah, unfoooortunately ... there is a kernel of value to his/her post, though. (firstly, there may be a history between that particular poster vs the consensus that I don't wish to broach, so tfwiw) All forecast efforts should be evaluated. No issue with that nested sentiment. If a trend of failure is/or can be objectively proven to be so, stop whatever philosophy that is being used in the materialization of the forecasting. That's just good science. I didn't read anything particularly sloppy - like 'not lucid' - nor personally attacking but again, if there is some 'greasy' history to that where I'm not aware, oh well -

"environmental woke-ism" has ruined those types of walls for me. I used to think they were aesthetically pleasing ... but now? Every time I see them they just look like big plastic artificial poison. I mean at least the plastic in the Pacific ocean can perhaps be remediated but what's going to happen with those big sheets of the shit erected in bulk. We're deliberately creating a disposal problem for future generations - right? And what is the 'micro-plastic' mass they are contributing. Not sure with all the shit that's being exposed about the plastics industry and the toxification that's materializing/caused by it: why is the practice of deliberately creating bulk tonnage of the stuff even allowed. But ... if that stuff is not part of all that concern, fine -

Yeah, so far this appears to be a "standard" sort of wind event - fitting into climatology for these southerly Dec gales. GRR's obs site density isn't too bad, https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/map/?obs=true&wfo=grr Not sure if these are "official" per se, but they are carried by NWS so -

Until they realized it was a Really Really F*n Shitty Ass model idea

Same here yet still nary a flood

Nothing rip and reads holiday glee like pixel showers that look like Bahama June bullets on radar

This winter has looked like crap for years

Could this denude the precious fragile young bases right off the mountains

Oh, but it’s completely normal in an El Niño December

Only when tagging on the circumstance gets so miserable it becomes funnier to impugn than it does the prospect of ‘eternal’ waiting Not all of us actually covet the bullshit we post. Haha

It all depends on the lapse rates. - the wind field off the deck is reasonably confident. The ability to mix down? That is rarely so in our climatology for a myriad of limitations. So you kind have to begin there and start adding offsets as they are implicated by modeling. Knee jerk shrugging it’s not happening in eye rolling doubt is not one of those offsets.

Day after xmas and this exact same storm yet again... what is this, ths 4th iteration of this ?

Kevin trying to get his NWS product interpretation past an actual NWS Meteorologist … …priceless

It’s like that in the Nam down here over Logan

Mm sudden stress for warming events take place as late as March 1

Makes perfect sense… American institutions were under attack for four years by that administration and then when the pandemic came around, they didn’t have appropriations and mental fuckin resources around to adjudicate the science properly.

Heh … I think you mean ‘feels and vibes are Trump science’ The continuity between the 0z and 12Z is maybe 15% at best. I don’t personally think the operation run has any more chance of verifying - day 6 to 10 range. I still think it’s funny to point out the piece of shitness that it is.

Too bad, the operational model looks like the worst stench of dung imaginable

We could have sneaky severe potential in Connecticut, Massachusetts tomorrow I think. I mentioned it the other day in the other thread with those warm hydrostats punching up into the area, and the actual surface trough istill west of the area that can be interesting with all that mid upper level jet mechanics going on.

The FOUS numbers are tamed by 4 or 5 kts. LGA went from 41 to 33, actually ...

Looks like it adjusted the track E some.

The old school FOUS grid keeps warming the T1 level temperature. This 18z run did so again and also drives 562 hydrostats to LGA-BOS. Instability may become more instrumental for this system as those numbers reflect a more barotropic sounding - ie not as protected by smeared warm frontal inversion like is typical. Cleaner momentum in the Z coordinate … There’s a wind bomb with our address on it - who knows if this system is the delivery but this wind signal is more impressive to me at least per these coarse synoptic indicators.

Hey Will, ha! I just got done head scratching about the lack of injects into the domain between the 23rd and 28th and then this 18z GFS comes out... Not saying these are producing - haven't even looked at the corresponding surface but this and like this is numerically supported prior to the 28th. So we'll see. From this range it's more important to see activity that syncs with signals.

Agreed ... I've posted about the 28-31st part of that time range over the last couple of days. The thing is, from a pure numeric value something could emerge between the 23rd and 28th but damn if the models refuse to actual inject anything into the domain during that time frame. Almost of a head scratch given the degree of the d(PNA), really. I'm willing to not bitch about it though because I'm seeing an oddly split hemisphere, with a 'relaxed' flow +PNA tendency happening beneath a frenzied higher latitude fast energetic polar jet and the two are seldom in sync... I believe the lower latitude mass-field distribution is modulating the PNA more so than the higher lat neg interference so causing a miss-leading layout.