Typhoon Tip

Back in the ancient days of the ETA … that model was really good at next day convective initiation … it’s progeny was the NAM

The bases of these late day towering cu look lenticular ... as though they may be tending to rotate. The tops are leaning E and with a SSE flow at the surface, there's a ton of 0-6km directional shear already in place. I think tomorrow could be interesting for EFO/EF1 type low LCL tor risk, associated with higher DP cyclonic curved height/climo. I've been off all day I don't know what folks have covered - I'm just getting caught up with the synoptic stuff. By the way... Wiz' ... you should have been to the half day conference at Meditech in Canton today. DC and Fields from NWS covered the synoptic categories for our tor risk climo in New England ( since you're apparently never going to move to Oklahoma ...). The also covered the Nov 13 recent event with the EFO/EF1 swarm from SE CT to SE MA, while it was snowing in North Adams no less... pretty interesting.

Yup ... I bitched about that precise aspect this morning too - LOL. You could tell at 7am that was timed horrifically. That said... I did get an impressive t-storm here around noon. .9" in 20 min with a ton of lightning.

As expected ...DPs higher aft of that complex that rolled through earlier

Lots of thunder here and very dark as this cluster's nearly upon us... But these are short duration rumbles, indicative of short range discharges - elevated/vil work. The sky looks that way, too. Has an overrunning texture/wave form out ahead. I was just checking DPs aft of this thing and from roughly SW CT down the coast they are elevated into the mid 70s. These observations lend to this being along a quasi warm front and at minimum the nose of a theta-e ridge.

I've always carried a private qualm about that supposed 'drought'/32 year thing ... Whenever I hear/read that, I wonder ... 'yeah, what about all the TS that have swathed up through this region' I mean, they may not be hurricanes, per se - but does that matter? Perhaps it's too much philosophy for this forum ... but I don't think there's an "atmospheric distinction" between the two. There may be a statistical distinction, but first order statistics don't really describe any system ... I mean, one could sum up all the cumulative ISE from all these TS and say ... that = a smaller number of hurricanes. Boom, budget has been met. There may not be a drought really. There may be a drought in whether someone gets their drama-junky modeling drug rocks off from watching an ISE dripping bomb twirling its way across the MDR with tantalizing model implications for a L.I. express... Okay. But that's something else. Nature doesn't owe Joe Bastardi or anyone else that subscribes to the bate drama machine, jack shyster -

Looks like the morning activity rumbling out out of the Tri-state area is just perfectly wrongly timed for generating instability over SNE.... It'll snuff out the fires of daytime heating passing thru between 9:30 and 12 ... and we won't recover in time. It'll set us up for garbage at both ends. The morning stuff will start weakening due to sun -up modulation of the sounding, but still residual light rain. Then, with all the heat suppression, the storms later will die when they move back over SNE late in the day. It's interesting how much timing plays a roll in creating a situational negative feed-back. 'Course, I may be wrong about all this ... hahaha... It just looks at a glance like that complex is only going to f up an otherwise tasty look.

I dunno, try looking at Italy's own meteorologists ? https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/12/europe/italy-heat-wave-record-temperatures-climate-intl/index.html ...I mean, taken fwiw, it is CNN -sourced.

Meanwhile, Italy .. with an average latitude of 41 N ( N of NYC ...), is expecting highs of 110 to 113 in a deadly heat wave. After now 15 years of this shunting shit I begin to suspect that eastern N/A above ~ 40 N is too intrinsically protected by geologic circumstance.

Shunt summer 2023 continues. Never seen such a persistent pattern, yet doing so during a time of year when there is more typically less coherency in that regard.

80/72 at 8:40 am is implicating the day as less than ideally soothing tho sat loops has some minoring cloud bands that will (likely ) even thin some with typical morning sounding modulation ... so I'm wondering if HI's go above guidance some.

How about the ?bad station? around Key W Florida trying to put up a 97° SST. I think that you can get those temperatures around the southern stretches of the Red Sea. Don’t know about the Key West area for sure, but I know that low 90s is not that uncommon down there. Plus, there is this so-called “loop current” not too far away - it’s basically a very large gyre that rotates and pretty much gobbles up a warm column of water that extends very deep. that all sad… Temperatures are running warm anomalous anyway regardless of low 90s or not. Ya, I know this has nothing to do with sea ice but indirectly .., the AMOC is weakening and I think we’re proverbial mere moments from some scientist advancing the notion that there’s a cumulative lag around the SW Atlantic Basin. The idea being … the Gulf Stream is being orchestrated by said weakening, which means it is weakening, too. And thus (perhaps) it’s not draining the heat away from that area as effectively.

I tried lol. … The immediate pushback was to start a different thread for the Antarctic but I don’t think it’s really an Antarctic or Arctic issue. I think it’s a global issue? So from my perspective, which nobody asked for admitted…, I think we’re all fucking doomed, and we should be monitoring, right now, everywhere! Until such time as it can be proven that we are not doomed Because we’ve cross the threshold where the onus/burden of proof is now pointed in that direction. We have to prove that it’s not the case

I think Sat's trying to evolve half way decent. Friday a boundary limps into a rich theta-e environment so borderline severe perhaps ...but then we get modest height rises immediately overnight ... might edge the next day better. There may be pop ups ...but that looks like trending toward less inundation

correl reef bleaching and a collapse and quite plausibly ... the surrounding biome.

Nice and dry-ish up my way. fwiw, Logan has a DP barely 61

I don't know if it will. Guessin' no - Something I've noticed now spanning over 10 years of total season-to-season behavioral trends (emphasized because readers for some reason skip 'trend' in lieu of aggravated absolutes...) Winters and summers are getting neutered, while springs and autumns have increased variance. It's sort of blurring the distinction - N-E of an approximately IA-NJ this is more true. Winters more and more are sheared open mid level gradient/velocity saturated. Patterns don't stay in position .. they modulate in shorter durations with wild R-wave repositioning, triggering larger temperature extremes imposing bigger thaws that for one ... don't kill ticks. haha. Summers are being dimmed for heat. I keep seeing this, every year, this "shunting pattern" because the gradient continues to organize into a more definitive summer/polar jet, which then favors the western ridge - won't let us evolve a big dawgs over the eastern continent ( as much) You can see this coherently sometimes on the weather charts too... Just look at the 00z Euro around 228 hours... There's a whopper heat dome with a fantastic R-wave -lengthed over arcing polar jet. What also makes these characterizations argument prone ... springs have been hot, and autumns have featured freak cold inserts that bring synoptic snow threats in Octobers. These do not lend to people's acceptance... Anyway, that's getting into the other thing.

actually ...I was talking about the 'thickness' - ... but, I was also looking at the NAM's 06z FOUS... It has 567 at 12z but over 570 by 18z .. Either way

weird things going on... Hydrostatic heights are 570+ yet the temperature's acting like it's mid November sloped sun and can't rise .

Maybe MAV/MEX? ... they both indicate modest rises during the day. Don't know - dr their reasoning My thinking is this isn't a true CAA sourced air mass. It seems it was manufactured by the circulation folding when the mid/U/A closing happened later yesterday. I may be wrong, but this appears like it's more a pool than an conveyor

NE U.S. lives a charmed existence when it comes to heat ...

Wondering where this lower DP air source (synoptically) really came from. It seems it was manufactured by entrainment when that mid level center formulated over upstate NY late yesterday ... interesting.

Can you imagine if it freak rained another foot in 6 hours and then a landslide at the low end of that valley slid a 1/4 mile thick slab of earthen dam in the exit elevation?

Very lucky this end of Rt 2 down here. Very unremarkable event. .74" so far... It's raining moderately at the moment but it's not slated to last very long. If these new NAM levels are correct, tomorrow and Wed are the hottest days of the year so far. 572 hydrostats, near full sun, light west wind, and 17.5C at 850 mb... 23 at 925.. 2-meter Ts tickling the testi hairs of 34C out among metrowest towns and non-bucolic settings in general.

I wonder if we may get some brightening soon as that 'dry slot' works up out of CT