Typhoon Tip

I think it's circumstantial the more I look at this. I mean what you're saying yeah, but we also have really no way to evac the present theta-e mass over OV to NE region that's stagnating. I'm looking at the 582 non-hydrostat and it really fails to convincingly move E-S, despite the trough so it's not really a typical synopsis. It's a deep (ish) anomaly pressing into a theta-e anomaly, with cyclonic curve flow that has mid level speed shear. I'm starting to come around

actually

Is there some particular technique or just tech that's behind that assessment - other than synoptic experience? I realize there's an odd-ball anomalous buzz saw setting up N of Lake Superior and the non-hydrostats align parallel flow, so yeah...training can be inferred and so forth. But there aren't enough fingers to count on two hands over the course of a weather year how many times I see a parallel flow - why is this D5 so ominous? lol, it's liable to be right just because I'm asking but still

"No idea who you are but I hope you don't cheer on winter storms/ ice / etc. Because those injure and unfortunately kill more than these floods. " That is what I responded to. By providing the hard statistics in a bar graph, that was to inform that 'winter storms/ ice / etc' do not 'kill more than these floods' Not sure why you're typing 9's and 7's and 1' but okay -

Son... what the f* are you talking about. Your statement from before was flat wrong.

GFS has a 'synergistic heat bomb' ... perfect timing of a S/W/'sonoran' heat released right into a L/W synoptic ridge eruption ... Big one too, with non-hydrostats approaching 600 dm! Thankfully for their sake ( and probably those of us downstream), this is at the end of an operational GFS time range where is seldom realized. But I still find it interesting that these synergistic events are an elusive phenomenon ... difficult to forecast as they don't always materialize out of seemingly similar synoptic metrics - yet this run manifests one nonetheless...

Yeah this is a developing story - ... instrumentation/validation ongoing or not. Phys.org has been reposting para science (among a broad spectrum of others) on climate change for years. They don't 'change' the report content. And they also link to the source. So it is what it is... https://phys.org/news/2023-07-monday-global-hottest-day-tuesday.html For those reliant on invalidating ... bear in mind, if the curve is ascending, at some point in time, a given moment has to be the warmest ever. Otherwise...the slope of the curve is descending - ... If Monday or yesterday was not "caught in the act" ... tomorrow or the next day probably would have been.

85 /71 HI 89 ’10 after 10’ gives 94 … There may be some dewpoint recession during mixing but I don’t know if it’s gonna be sufficiently to stop the heat index from rising into the upper 90s if the temperature gets close. And we don’t even need 94 if it gets up to 91 or 92 on the dewpoint 70. not sure why we don’t have at least heat advisory’s in place even if it’s not pandimensional, it should be in locally headlines.

This is kinda cute ... the hottest actual day in history - https://phys.org/news/2023-07-monday-world-hottest-day.html

They mention it… But I wonder if they’re gonna end up a little bit low with the heat index for tomorrow - they think it’s gonna stop in the low 90s. both the GFS and the Nam are offering temperatures 89 to 92 with dpoints between 68 and 73 for an average HI of 98. Perhaps they don’t think these metrics are going to come together, but they also seem preoccupied with the flooding throughout which they should be… I won’t be surprised if in the morning update they put up a heat advisory.

False fyi-

That NAM solution came in quite hot. Not sure the populous is really used to what 92/74 feels like

People must have access to MJO models that are not found thru CPC’s web resource because there’s not much suggestion there at this time.

It's interesting because this isn't really a 'BB' circulation manifold but where ever the 4th of July was not ruined deliberately by metaphysical/super natural powers ... that is the affect, nonetheless

It’s interesting how local this is to a smaller region of southern New England. I mean it’s completely… Well, not completely, but mostly sunny west of Springfield and Keene, New Hampshire… I mean it might be a pop-up or something around there but it’s a lot more sun then clouds. Meanwhile, Eastern zones there’s some kind of weird thing to kill this summer going on.

Bahamian

The "shape" of the flow might belie the reality there ... at least, if 'further notice' means the next 10 days. The 582 non-hydrostat never gets S of PWM to PIT ( ~ ) line on this 12z GFS operational run, and that's an aspect that's been occurring in general across the recent model runs ( not just the GFS). Despite the appeal of that robust negative anomaly buzz saw cutting its way through 55 N across the continent, that lack of height fall behavior probably ablates CAA from getting appreciably S-E. It may be more than less 'contained' . It does speed up the flow, however .. The negative height anomaly is probably overdone some. D6+ there is a longer term model performance -based safe assumption there. But it's presence as it passes by N is steepening the geostrophic gradient making for unusual mid level velocity anomaly. We don't typically see 70 to 100kt 500 mb jet cores in mid July spanning from Wisconsin to Maine. That aspect alone is rather intriguing...

For those of you that engage in reposting "twits" ... just be advised that because Elon Musk is not rich enough ... tweets are no longer viewable to non-account holders. Since that is the majority of people in the world, it's become immediately all but futile for you to post twit material in here - Despite the dig above ... it's not a loss. Not really. In fact, it's more likely that limiting access repost is akin 'for one's own good' like taking heroin away from an addict. Twit reposting is damaging for a bevy of reasons too broad to get into here... and so it's actually a relative win.

Uh... you read-in too deeply. I'm not personally surprised that signals projected between D7-15's are not verifying. Not once? mmm yeah, that's a little odd. I was responding to you, saying that CPC ... was less than impressed by D8-14, and offering (tongue-in-cheek) that trend for failure makes it harder to imagine otherwise. Part of this is because there is a warm signal ( yet again ...) for that time range. So there's sarcasm as to whether that will actually get realized. By the way folks, there's still a marginal heat wave possibility from D.C. to interior SNE, Wed- Fri. 87-91 with DP type.

Can't say I blame them ... I mean I have no idea at this moment, while typing, what their reasoning is ... but from my perspective, of the number of times an emerging heat signal has come over the distant temporal horizon ( 2nd week) in the total technology framework, has resulted in 0 realization since mid spring. 100% failure rate. Seemingly...for different reasons, too. Eventually, the less than rational convention becomes too tempting to the analysis. LOL It's really beeen rather striking to see a 100% failure rate on that. I'm just sort of tacitly recalling here, but it seems like 5 ... 7 times since the end of April that the technology has proven futile - so the uselessness to persistent attempts has been a growing achievement

It's interesting the low temperatures in that list are lower in the heat wave relative sense... I wonder if that was more common at regional scales. The DPs may not have been very high

I had a Stromboli last week that caused a major eruption, too ...

We also have corn snakes that look black with a irregular white patterns like that, too. Saw one nearly 7' in length crossing the road over the brook. Very menacing looking but ultimately pretty harmless. They can also be brown and white banded, too.

No ... it's because of the sewer piping in

wow... HFD put up a 'fake' 90 on mesowest with a 70 dp