Typhoon Tip

Mmm one could justly go ahead and say it’s highly unlikely though - to the extent of new hobby in the meantime when people caboose omissions with “ it doesn’t mean it can’t…” that smacks as psycho babble bargaining. are we really just as scared to accept as we are willing to admit?

It’s all about threshold… I’m pretty sure most papers say “nearing“ tipping points as their warning for the nearby future and they’re still giving it some decades…

... haha, you know what? we need it to happen. we need operation no-winter shock and awe to happen. it may be less potential, yet, along this curve of the cc trajectory, duh. but we need some sort of 'it can't happen,' yet +10 to 15 from d.c. to boston all 3 month, cherry bud swollen, shrubbery greenin' ... 7 days past the solstice type shock and awe. why? it would just be a fantastically entertaining sociological experiment, and subsequent observation, as we sit back and take in all the climate denialism 'explanations' lol given the "phenomenon characters" going on around the world, i don't think it is too far ( as some may think...) beyond the pail to see something like to take place. oh, it would be unlikely to recur the following year, but it's like the one event that is the shot across the bow freak season that is suggestive of a more permanent future. march, 2012, was +8 to +12 at a lot of climo sites in the ov to ne regions that early spring - perhaps 'standing wave' event etc... here we are, 12 years farther up the curve? go ahead, tell me we can't do it for 3. i dare ya. but we really have not had a freak eastern n/a mid latitude 'attribution' event that is very well comparable to all this shit going on around the world. we haven't. not so far as what we're seeing on media, elsewhere. and, i'd like to see the longevity event that isn't a hurricane, frankly. in a era whence populations have become dysphoric, for lack of better word, to information believability in general ... there's always some erosion of faith as to the seriousness when they see said medias. it seems to always be something for a distant shore. anyway, operation no winter shock and awe and then we get to watch denialism squirm. priceless

however the baseline quasi persistent/super synopsis of the hemisphere gets to that Can of who knows what it's SIPing, 500 mb distribution on whole aside, just in quadrature that would have to be a historically positive north atlantic oscillation mode to put it softly. in fact ... so much so that i question any likeliness for that to succeed. the problem with 'SIP's distribution is that it must be all but entirely discounting any negative phase state from ever happening. the nao is a very stochastic field, more so than any other index - few reasons for that.. but that variability therein would have to never be variable, if it is always positive. just sayn' that would be truly remarkable success. i don't doubt ( or support either way ) a +nao predominating season, it's the amount of that. if a 3-mon mean were 70% +, that would probably nearing the top positives in history; that CanSIPs would need it to be there or exceeding that to get a 3-mon mean that coherent. it'll be an interesting to monitor.

https://phys.org/news/2024-10-earth-climate-humanity-net-emissions.html ( https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1353/2024/ )

morning bus stop small talk ... 25 here, coldest so far this forwarding year. lots of still air leaf fall. i love that affect. the sun's morning beams shown sideways with leaves flitting down; they're the only movement or sound. we've had a couple of these cold shock mornings but they were only in 29. 25 is deep enough to really get the fluttering going. interesting that despite the patterns ... on going hemisphere being so warm this autumn we're getting any of this - well timed I suppose.

Until the index significantly change the GFS operational likely to keep flopping right back to warm looks …obliterating those. Probably gonna get periodic inserts of cold just good for upslope and maybe snowmaking but you’re gonna get warm blasted two or three days later and it won’t make it worth it If the index change then fine otherwise check back in after Thanksgiving giggity

you do realize half my intent there was a deep poke and stick wiggle into the hornet's nest muah hahaha

funny was thinkin about this during disk this morning. back in the 1980s or 90s ... a 58 on nov 2 was a huge lucky bonus yummy warm balm bliss day. climate fixing i guess

how come cc isn't factored in

that's crazy out there. i realize we were 78 to 80 nov 6-10 in 2020 but doing this with all that wind today ... probably doesn't mean 'more' per se but it's just wrong. i mean, windy in november is really not existentially consistent with heat. windy in novie = cold

12z euro attempting an atmospheric river genesis, but displaced a bit n of climo for that sort of hemisphere. suppose it makes sense... only so far to extend the hc n of normal before these base latitudes start also (gee) ending up n. anyway, pac rivers into the w coast typical of raging rna hard ons so we'll feel the heat of the balls back e, with another mid month warm stench probably if that happens

i know ... people 'get' to see the annihilation of winter in time to get a good night sleep instead of waking up thinking the new day might have brought a different reality in the models...

29.8 here a couple of times ... so a freeze but not really very impressively so. may have just been the dip temp anyway, not having spent much time in that range - unsure. 34 a few times though. agreed mid month. earlier telecon projections ( like those from last week and prior ) suggested the wpo may slope off ...if so, perhaps an indication that by mid novie we'd be seeing a pattern change coming around the bend but that doesn't seem to be as coherent anymore. seems we've established a pretty obvious precedence going back some 15 years that "correcting" at all, has been favoring warm side - without getting into causal debate. it just is what it is. if anything corrects colder, that's become the rarer circumstance. sometimes the greater synoptic construct looks like it corrects cooler, but the actual dailies seldom really reflect it. seeing it here... subtly offering reasons to see the se ridge bloom again/protract.

it would be nice if nature followed the intents and purposes of human designs like that. lol

It’s really just a shift tho, isn’t it ? doesn’t the sunrise also later for a couple weeks on

oh, we came up since then. it's see 64.

62 ... air smells like a warm sector finally.

the reason i was really asking is the seasonality of that. the nws conference last year ( not this one the other day ...) showcased a 48 to 55 f, sensibly cold air, low eof swarm down in se sections down here, and showed the neg tilt 500 mb and sfc cyclone pulled up west of orh while that was happening. can't recall exactly but i think the case study was an octo or novie event. maybe even dec. fascinating. seems autumn/early winter is a time to get that. i think there was some discussion/speculating about diabatic association to the near by ocean entrainment

actually ...the low turd has been wiped off this underwear of a day at this point. it's mid and high deck. temp up to 59

68 to 70 popping up along the Pike 53-55 along rt 2 fuggin one stubborn ass wedge job just noticing now the day glow is rising out the windows... we may get some partial ceiling lift/sky lights going now.

do you think those kinds of tornadoes might be assisted by some sort of raging synoptic forcing

heh a.c. on tomorrow? unless one lives in some special glowing circumstance like a shit apartment a mere wall away from a steam cleaning outfit ... turning on the ac tomorrow smacks as fulfilling a narrative

i wonder if it is 60 up on top of mt monadnock https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

mmm i hope so. believe me. as someone that's turned to the dark side and hates and despises winter now ( unless there's an actual reason to like it, like a snow storm that all but cant happen here now despite everyone's ideas on reality - hopefully that pisses people off reading that ), i hope it is 72 f all the time. buuuuut since the no winter scenario is more likely going to express as 40 to 50 f wedge jobs we're left to dream. lol seriously though, the ens means suggest above normal is favorable, but these oper models, all of them, are running out and finding reasons to not expand within the telecon suggested potential -