Typhoon Tip

Really…? I thought the opposite. oh well better for me… I’ve got a disc golf tourney at the end of that week.

I wonder with this scunge cloud debris if some of the mild potential today is being robbed.

Not entirely but doesn't hurt. The "cold loading pattern" for north America is really before that. When there is a ridging over the Berring Straight through the Alaskan sector, directs a cold conveyor/delivery over the western semi arc of the polar domain, which dumps it down stream over western Canada ... Eventually is sprawls out across the continent. The PNA then moves toward +PNA mode ... completing the destiny - which looks like this below. You can get a sense by looking at this above, whatever cold air was erstwhile delivered over Canada, then gets directed south into the U.S. That's more or less the idealized model. Above is a positive PNA look. The typology of the +PNA layout is usually negative height anomalies N/NE of Hawaii, with downstream counter-balancing positive anomalies over western N/A. Check. Somewhat intriguing considering that chart is 10 days to 2 weeks out in time, and these features are so coherent. That's not exactly hinted there. Notwithstanding, 330 hours. However, given success, that would probably be a stormy look - an assessment that comes down to emerging in the positive direction. It's getting more advanced in the discussion but when on that side of the evolution, fun stuff is more likely to take place.

Interesting ... the GEFs appear to be playing catch-up to the Euro weeklies of all things. Long range/mid month hemisphere looking increasingly +PNA-ish

It's the perils of progressive patterns. Error is much higher. Here's the deal, ... the GEFs PNA index end ups rising from -.5 to +.5 between now and Nov 15, doing so with surprisingly limited spread for both the time of year but just considering going all the way through week 2 in general. There's no "spike" there...just a gradual ascent. A pulse at some point along space and time signals enhanced restoring system potential. However, NJ model low and/or flat frontal wave type events take place beneath the large mass field perturbation. The restoring is triggered within smaller nested domain spaces below those larger scales. The PNA is so massive a domain space, a NJM wave eject, out of the eastern limb, could fit along a more gradual sloped ascent like that. . To be fair. The WPO/NPAC/EPO ... are sending warm signals. However, the +PNA/ +EPO correlation, particularly post -EPO bursts ( like last week) would tend to be colder look of N/A as the +PNA forces NW flow through the NW Territory - the negative EPO damage was already done. Which we are seeing. Check... So..it's not clear what the upstream N arc of the Pac has in mind or if may overwhelm. I think what we are seeing in the guidance is sensy 'giga' movement because of that.

Layman, Yeah what he said ^. Sorry I didn't back to you - it's officially shit month at work ( apparently. F!) The only thing I'd add is aspects like the trop. forcing and/or ridge placement that he's mentioned? - those are also changing in time. The models can error with those different regional mass-field influences. Which would of course then introduce error in how the main ridge and troughs ( the pattern ) ultimately situate. To help with some that, the ensemble means are used. They tend to be more reliable at outer time ranges, because by averaging all those solutions smooths out the individual aberration/oddities. But even this method can be screwy at times -the transition seasons can see wholesale 'redraws' at times. It's the major reason for error in the outer mid range ( D5-7) and extended. More often times a consensus in the guidance that seems to routinely materialize right around D4. In recent years, we've seen poor consensus among the models even 2 days ahead ... owing (probably) to the fast flow bias in the winter hemisphere's that's been observed over ~ 1.5 decades. This go of it was more subtle ... The N Pac was transiently lowering heights northeast of Hawaii - and still are really... This was creating more of a +PNAP ridge response downstream over W N/A Rockies in previous run cycles compared to 00z. That lent to more trough over the OV. "Constructive interference" - or perhaps less destructive works too. But last night the heights were made to be flatter over the western continent... and on and so on.

Wholesale change swept through the guidance. Maybe the writing was on the wall? Not sure... but the previous 0z cycle was 'strange,' before the 12z (yesterday) attempted to bring certain aspects back more coherently again.. The idea being, sometimes the scaffolding wobbles before it collapses. Sensitivity appears to be the west and north Pacific handling. This run made a significant move away from the AB(cold stormy N/A) to the AA (mild/ flat N/A) circulation mode. It's aggressive enough that it's sending opposing wave signs/negative aspects through a region Will and I were musing over ... forcing a positively tilting victim of destructive large-scale interference... I suspect that is what Kevin's referring too. Will an I were impressed with that structure in prior guidance etc. Anyway, this is an interesting change for nerds.. That's an usually massive difference in/for one run. We actually end up with a zonal flow/ridge compression over mid latitude continent out in time, and that could just as well be a prelude to warm up mid month. Typically we meet continuity breaks with skepticism... but this change was the entire hemisphere from Japan to the Atlantic - what could change that much mass inertia, and just be a burp run? I dunno here folks. we'll see

Oh shit yes ... That's not the first time I've seen that sort of hemispheric scaffold like what he posted, from the GEFS/GEPS as well... Sometimes the autumn patterns don't parlay as well as they did in 1995 ... granted. (obvious sarcasm). But if speaking what-ifs, agreed. If we're doing this in the core I think a few locations would go a considerable distance toward fixing their apparent decadal snow fall deficits, up.

That is a f'n beautiful construct presage to a NJ Modeler dude. wow - I know I have been hitting that storm type rather hard as of late, but I think ( full disclosure) this is a ripe 10 days for those flat wave rapid detonators ... beginning this weekend and through next week. Could be two of them ... hell, go 1996 on dem bastards. It doesn't take much when you have that ^, happening post a -5 SD EPO burst (last week) that collapses into a rising PNA like we're seeing spanning the totality of October 25 - Nov 10 - I mean IF that were to take place a month from now I said at the time, the only hold backs were the time of the year... However, seeing this air mass snow so easily in CT... and having 0C lower than 925 mb with orb sun no less, got me bun-able today

Guaranteed a few individual members have majors M/A to shore NE given the morphology of that +PNAP trough amplitude over 300 hours there

It's also pretty cold all the way down to 2000 elevation, too. -0C at that level and -6 at 850 ( I think I saw but check that). Anyway, fall rates don't have to be very heavy with a cryo altitude that low.

Definitely room in the Euro for that to come south. The mid and upper level hemisphere through that synoptic period has a barrier vortex look over central/E Canada, and the Euro just from person experience over the years will often times overcome by attempting erroneous early phase.

I'm kinda of nice about it in Novie. I don't expect much, either ... It's not like that winter anxiety we're denying on January 12th because of a so-far seasonal snow total of a whopping 5.4", while the models are urinating thaw patterns in the extended. We got "blue" thickness within reach if not accessible, with an active pattern? I'm good with that

Classic NJ Model low depiction on the 12z GFS ... classic flat wave quick mover. Middling intensity but text book's aren't really bombs either.

Yeah that trough amplitude was in the 00z mean, too. I mentioned this morning that the ens means were (all 3) apparently emerging but I haven't had a chance to take in the 12z. I did see the operational GFS (ew) and got pissed. Lol

Life and actual work are preventing me from being very involved, much to the satisfaction of the collective, I'm sure... but clearly there is some sort of move by all three ensemble members toward the coast for the 8th-ish of November. The telecon spread/leading modality's are not altogether terrible, something seems more likely than not to be emerging along the M/A. There is spread (of course..) at this range so keeping an eye on it. The other issue is that it is less than clear what/if/where cold air

The Plains getting cold and dumping a blue norther into Texas, and all that is probably more normal than not down wind of a -4 or even -5 (depending on the source ) standard deviation EPO that burst forth some 10 days ago

I know - right? Look, I'll say it for the 4th time: if snow making were to be done "green" than who the fuck cares?! build a goddamn glacier. You know, logic dictates the only reason to really argue has nothing really to do with not believing in climate change, it's really about being told to stop.

Actually fertility rates are down all across industrialized societies throughout the world. I don't know if that constitutes "stop making people" ( lol ) but it is down. In fact, I've read that China is actually losing at the other end at an alarming rate. And I know the U.S. is below the 1::1 balance - in other words we're losing to more than gaining. Just adding this

Bingo! I sometimes think the "politicizing" thing has become an act of diversion from facing the real argument points.

wow that's a sweet system... Yeah, it's a bit handicapped by a slightly too warm thermal layout, but it goes from the high 990s mb all the way 975mb in 20 hours. Bombogenesis nor'easter thrashing at the coast for several hours with wind and sideways cold rain. Marginality should be monitored inland.

Yeah Scott... We were just reminiscing about some yore -worthy NJ model low events and the GFS was apparently listening in. Shave a half C off the thermal sounding and that's actually major hit in this depiction. High pressure not in the worst position for this. The attending 500 mb is in the process of amplifying so this particular interval below is about to get a jolt of dymamic forcing? as is I wouldn't even discount this.

It's probably short concern for most but for me ... this NAM FOUS grid is clad for first entry into a snow atmosphere this season. Not bad - Maybe early snow -like synoptics in recent years has sort of muted the significance. Haha, they didn't seem to parlay very well into the ensuing winters. Obviously we know there's no real correlation other than noise but it was what it was.

Yeah ...and while I'm dating myself, ha I go back to the 1980s. A lot of autumns between 1985 and 1990 had an affinity for Novie events. Those were bad years overall for winter weather enthusiasts, but subjectivity aside ... they did produce some Novie exceptions to that rule. One of my favorites was in 1986 ( but it might have been then one in 1987). A high of 52 out at Logan the afternoon before. This was prior to the dramatic variability over short duration we've grown accustomed to over the decades since; back then, 52 would seem rather incongruous with any kind of dynamic snow bomb. The sky was macro textured nearing sunset, the wind calms. Tranquil. Utterly unremarkable. But while that was the case, upstream ... a nasty torpedo jet at mid levels (just a description for a powerful wind max embedded in a S/W that actually lacks a lot of geometric curvature) with a wind max over 120kts was unzipping the sky over the southern Great Lakes. Cleveland was reporting thundersnow around 3:30 pm. It was somewhere around November 10 I wanna say but for all my protestation about my love for weather events, as well as my clear proclivity for discussion surrounding them ... I suck donkey balls at remembering dates. I am 100% certain this was November, tho. Turned on The Weather Channel like any after-school day. They were doing the Gardening Report segment, which at that time carried no meaning or purpose to the natural cosmos for me... but as it aired, "beep beep beep-beep. beep beep beep-beep" Fists grip thighs followed by my own, "OOH OOH OOH." From right to left across the bottom of the screen scrolls, "...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON MASSACHUSETTS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR FROM 11PM TONIGHT UNTIL 12PM TUESDAY ..." Just typing that brings back memories, like when you hear a favorite song you haven't heard in a long while. I used to love those moments. Steeped in boredom, seems there's nothing that is ever going to happen exciting ever again, when out of nowhere those beep chimes cut through the malaise like a light beam from salvation. See, back then the culture of awareness was entirely a different reality. There wasn't any internet. There wasn't any cell phones. I think personal pagers weren't even ubiquitous just yet. The cable companies still only carried maybe 40 or 50 channels airing anything imaginable other than live news ... much less weather-related news information? TWC was the only one that carried weather-related 'drama.' Otherwise, you had to wait until 5 or 6 pm, 11pm or 7am to get updates and forecasts. So, these tickers and special cut-ins were a bigger deal, an experience that will probably never be shared again since the 1990s rolled around and put the entire world in everyone's lap - it's been drama pap on tap ever since. A ticker for winter system wouldn't even lift a chin over a shoulder by most nowadays. Anyway, Harvey Leonard ( recently retired) was a local on-air fan fav Met at the time, and he came on 5 and it was a dreamy presentation. I remember his words, if not exact to a very close tolerance of precision, "Now, you might be thinking, 'what, snow' after a high temperature of 52 this afternoon, but it appears that as this storm emerges off the New Jersey coast overnight it will rapidly intensify and trickle down just enough cold air from up N to flip a lot of the area over to a period of heavy snow..." -never forget. I awoke at 3:30 am to the sound of thunder. I could here rattling by the window at the far side of the bedroom, where the screen part of the storm window's metal frame had long since slipped it's rails and would upon occasion carry on with it when the wind blew. As I was looking that direction through the dark at the butter scotch glow in the sky the bled through, there was another flash followed by the report. That 2nd one had me out of bed and staring with gaped expression as curtains of snow, glowing from the city scape lights, waved their way over swaying silhouetted tree lines. Another flash of lightning. So, I'm getting dress as quickly as possible... I think I actually kept my p.j. bottoms on and just threw on my boots and my winter parka/hoodie and set out. The only sounds was that of snow particle on the hood and white howls of the wind as it transported heavy snow. There was only 3 or 4" at the time... but it would end up closer to 10 or 11" by the time the storm wrapped up around 10am. I believe southern Mass put up some bigger numbers than that. That was the only day in the entire 1980s I attended Acton Boxborough Regional High School where municipal would call it quits and phone in a snow day. Funny ... if a hockey rink dumps their Zamboni slush out back of the facility these days surrounding townships seem to call in snow days as if were a nuclear waste disposal accident. There was another one similar to that.. These are quick hitters, "New Jersey model lows" they used to be called in AFDs back in the day. They tend to come down as Alberta Clipper type lows. Some do and some don't have more obviously sexy storm vitals while diving SE over Chicago - this one with the Cleveland thunder snow apparently did. But as they bottom out over the Ohio Valley and then immediately next ... their nose of dynamic power sniffs the baroclinic powderkeg along the Eastern Seaboard ... boom! Whatever they may have lacked, they can go from a limited satellite presentation to an explosive baroclinic leaf in a matter of short hours. I guess if we want to be technical, Dec 2005 was one of these on 'roids. 1989 there was a biggie around Thanks Giving, but that one may have been a more full latitude type of storm genesis - different total spatial aspects.

Going by these NAM numbers … we enter a snow column staring in 30hrs