Typhoon Tip

Aren’t there posters lurking in here from NS ? https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/23/americas/nova-scotia-canada-rain-floods/index.html

It’ll couple but at times the boreal winter hemispheric circulation mode will wonder off … I.e transiently so, but the return/baseline will be Nino/Nino-esque Problem is … the coupling can happen yet the external mode may still be compensating … such that the registries are more modest relative to DNSO strength. We’ve been seeing this latter state spanning both warm and cool ENSOs over the last 10 years.

59 was the low here. Relative to KFIT, the nearest NWS 'official' site and mere 8 miles away as the crow flies, that is close to 1 deg cooler than normal. However, we are in the Nashoba Valley, which typically tanks lower on rad nights ... so, it may in fact be normal for this specific location; but I have no idea what the climate norms are for Ayer Ma at this specific location. So, call it normal lows and a day. The models are waffling on the exact orientation of the westerlies across the eastern continent later this week. The Euro and GGEM's panache leans more zonal - between the persistent W ridge and a recently emerged WAR-like west Atlantic. That's a fragile look ... one the GFS cannot resist. So it gnaws at and ultimately finds the mechanical means to dig into the 'crevice' between, which evacs the heat away before an official wave can be tallied. The 850 mb layout of both the Euro and GGEM for Wed-Fri would easily support a heat wave, but their 2-meter results are capped to the barely 90. Not sure why they are not better mixed ... but, I've also noted in the past that both these sources tend to limit 2-meters unrealistically. The GFS mixes too much - a facet that is hidden because it bullies troughs too quickly... it's like it creates an error to compensate for another error, and ends up better with the 2-meter. Lol. But it does overly mix regardless. That's why it's always 113 F Iowa out in time...blah blah. Anyway, the pattern scaffold does look fragile though. It would be more convincing for a heat wave if the WAR would actually physically retrograde and lift the flow orientation into a ridge arc. Or, have the ridge in the west roll east and do it that way. Without that structure it's harder to parse this fragility out of the known model biases. What a f'n migraine it is getting Earth to set up a heat wave in New England this year. man ... with the heat press/media about the world, it seems we must be the hero compensating cold region.

We'll see what these guidance do this weekend but that heat signal I mentioned last week is materializing rather nicely.. The magnitude of it ... prooobably not extreme? However, any time a consecutive 90+ scenario is envisioned by technology in this present global era ( *when synergistic heat turns an ordinary summer warm outlook into a heat explosion) we should probably bear that in mind. We're missing the real deep layer troposheric circulation mode, though. But it's a tough distinction, therein, because the 588 dm non-hydrostat does end up N of Boston latitude - if you wanna due 95 ...that's like the crude "540 dm for snow" thing ... However, some semblance of cyclonic curved orientation still sags, echoing the recent persistent trough ... It just provides a precarious set up. Heat is the most fragile metric of all weather outlooks to actually get right - one ill time shower takes a day out of the running. It doesn't send a lot of confidence in the stability of the outlook - particularly in New England. We are seeing the 594 dm contour slipping from a WAR-like position, retrograding underneath us. On the fence.

came thru Ayer with penny hail and .5" of rain in 5 min... Definitely was a meso embedded from what I observed. Also, the supercell that erupted near Barre ... if you look that vis loop you can vaguely discern a shock wave propagate away from that tower.. Absolutely stunning VV in the core of that sucker. I don't think the models got the lapse rate right -

Lol. Like, mass extinction is one thing but if it means snowing … we’re off the fossil fuels !

hopefully that back edge to this mid upper level debris band/dying rains is legit and passes off by mid day. otherwise ... no go

hint hint: I've been waiting for/if a WAR circulation mode to kick in... I've seen several individual model cycles attempt to do so over the last three week's worth of operational monitoring, but the continuity has been lacking. For now, the runs are opting instead on another thermal ridge attempt into the Missouri Valley to ORD..., more coherently. As an aside, that "might" send a heat expulsion our way in its own right, but that ridge is too far west ..which can lead to MCC traffic and other perturbations that limit the polarward realization ..D.C. and Philly look hot in the late middle range, either way. Anyway, not intending to get into a forecast discussion ... if the WAR taps into that and we time a SW/Sonoran heat release, it's unclear (in an ominous way) what the nexus of that transport would mean for the heavier population regions here in the east. (WAR refering to canonical West Atlantic Ridge )

I gotta say .. the Global Forecast System ( and I spell it out because it's not really the GFS operational model I'm mentioning here, per se - ) first picked up on the favorable, albeit anomalously early, MDR activity a month ago ... well over a week in advance. It did so again over the last 10 days to two weeks, and now we have Don - which isn't really MDR, but there's also a Verdi Invest mid way. I just think that's worthy of a shout out.

I gotta say .. the Global Forecast System ( and I spell it out because it's not really the GFS operational model I'm mentioning here, per se - ) first picked up on the favorable, albeit anomalously early, MDR activity a month ago ... well over a week in advance. It did so again over the last 10 days to two weeks, and now we have Don - which isn't really MDR, but there's also a Verdi Invest mid way. I just think that's worth a shout out. OH... it would also help if I posted this in the right thread -

Are you aware of the marine heat burst around Florida and the adjacent southwest Atlantic basin? I find it interesting that the onset of this thing seems to have coincided too cutely with the breakdown of the La Niña circulation manifold’s temporal seam with onset warm ENSO. not sure that’s a coincidence. It seems to me we’re getting some “elasticity” at planetary scales right this summer. Remarkable atmospheric ‘bounce backs’, and sea surface temperatures exploding It’s like La Niña suppressed things but released …. now overcompensation the other direction. Supposition. Fascinating

I have a 150 year old maple at the corner of my plat and every autumn I got 6-12” of maple leaves … Ive never raked There are no leaves anywhere In fact, by the end of April the following spring I have no leaves. Now … I still use a gas mower, kwhich I feel something about every time I do. But my neighbor’s lawn is similar in size and she uses a battery powered one. Seems to work really well … even though recharging means we might merely be transferring the carbon footprint … Anyway, just mowing straight thru it a couple three times every spring and they’re gone. Chopped to dust and degrading. Raking is overrated… Leaf cleanup is in fact overrated. But if people have aesthetic hangups, and retentive issues going on with their lawn, I guess it’s some thing of a past time for them.

That’s always there… I’ve been trying to figure it out myself, but I’ve seen that or the last 10 years quite often. And frankly I wasn’t paying attention before that very closely. But ever since we’ve been having abnormally warm West Atlantic waters, I’ve been paying attention off New England; that cold pool’s always there seems like. What’s interesting is that there’s usually warm water north and east of there so it makes me think that it’s an upwelling zone?

Very coarsely looking at that spread I provided above for inference, a probability curve emerges: Better winter performance for temperatures ( to which "possibly" snow can be inferred) begins at the weaker end of warm ENSO, and gains increasingly shittier prospects the stronger they were. Now... by 'coarse,' that doesn't break out into quadrature like Modoki this, and easterly limb distributions that, or polar field index balancing ... and RONI (which may prove an increasingly useful and adaptive consideration ..) etc... Again ...just coarsely, capping this year to a moderate index, then possibly weakening it after a peak between T-giggedy and Xmas ... wouldn't 86 this year for entertainment if using that coarse method. The problem is, this RONI and "relative index factoring" is very real - so that does present challenges to any assumption based upon climate passed when neither was a part of the ENSO rubric

It's been consistently that way. It seems to be eager to quasi close off the surface pressure pattern ... like an echo of a coastal low - albeit weak. One run of this model even had that with fair skies - seems to suggest how it handles hydrostatics more so than from processing.

... all healed up an released in time to be buck shot by a hunter this autumn

Looks like that missed the early July passage

The NAM has been much more sensitive with surface synoptics on that day... It keeps folding the sfc pp around such that the coastal plain from Maine to NYC is basically in a quasi bd air mass - but it's really like it's a "dry coastal low" - even in the sky. I mean it may be partly sunny at ORH at 18z on some of these NAM versions, with a NE breeze holding Ts to the upper 60s to mid 70s ( low els). The GFS has less of that, and allows more of a static or COL low level/variable flow with probably more humidity. Thus more instability. Not sure... the NAM has superior resolution. But, the NAM also has a propensity to be overzealous with anything resembling cyclostrophic circulation manifolds in the general axis from Richmond VA to NS... I've talked about this in the past - when it has one of those savory snowy coastal inundation in the 72 hour range, and is farthest NW of most guidance, as a typical winter bias. This smacks as some weird vague sort of echo of that bias happening in this troughy summer pattern.

Sort of ( here) ... it's like we shaved 5 to 7 F off the DP but we were so overwhelmingly anomalous the last 3 days or whatever, being 66 DP seems a lot cooler. That and the temperatures are also hanging around in the 70s this hour. We need a WNW wind d-sloping 55 DP air with +15C 850s, to send the T up to 86 under an unimpeded sun.

that was probably exaggerated by an anomalously wet summer/soil moisture issue. Interesting... yeah, that would make the severe criteria for wind perhaps lower than normal before that kind of impact begins to occur.

No … because apparently it’s going to be 82/58 in clouds of these needling mosquitos so dense they’re going to have to extend the air quality alerts

It's called either a strong coastal storm, or the rarer yet .. a TC

Interesting... now that I look a the GFS' 850 mb synoptics over the 06z run it's corrected pretty significantly hotter during that time range.

Finally ... a hot Euro solution in the east. Not sure I trust it, but D8-10 would be near 90 eventually to 96 through the period. So being that it's D8+ it's obviously not very dependable. It's there nonetheless and I don't recall +20C+ SW heat release air ever being modeled to expand into across the mid lat continent, yet this summer. The GFS won't give up on the trough in that range, so no go. Instead sending new cold fronts ... It has persistence on its side.