Typhoon Tip

https://phys.org/news/2023-12-current-carbon-dioxide-million-years.html 480 ppm is the C02 in the atmosphere of earth at present time, a density not occurring since 14-16 million years ago, a time when "there was no ice on Greenland" ...you know, it occurs to me while reading this, there is, at present, ice on Greenland. Here's the catch. Prior to the 1700's, there was 280 ppm. In straight terminology, C02 concentration of the atmosphere have essentially doubled since the Industrial Revolution - in geological scale and comparison, that is virtually instantaneous. 300 years compared to an entire epoch? Greenland ice. This last summer's odd global temperature spike. It may just be that we are terraforming this world, faster than the physical manifestation have had time to catch up. Compensating larger forces cap rise, and then it surges..etc. We may see the temperature spike more commonly? Or even, perhaps one cataclysmic afternoon a portion of the land-locked ice cap in fact does what it has been hypothesized: up and slides off into the Atlantic. That's a different kind of tsunamis. That water level wouldn't flow back seaward. That is the new sea. I've read that Greenland has enough ice, on land, to raise the global sea level an average of 22 feet. It wouldn't take the entire 22 feet to cause catastrophic real time affects.

Things aren't so bad, really ... I mean, it's gonna snow, and snow probably at heavy rates for at least a short period of time, along the spine of western and NW New England. From the scope and scale of the N/A continent? That is a snowy anomaly - relative to season - for the "northeastern U.S." Case closed. This is a brief philosophical rant; but is true nonetheless. The problem is ... the "IMBY" devil. It's always there ... in constant battle with expectation. Ya know... 'perception is politics' - and politics is seldom very fair.

sorry... shouldn't have brought it up. ha. Nothing like setting off a weekend with people put into defensive anger. hahaha

probably not - the whining and grousing and having a reason to troll anyone with a hint of optimism seems to really be why/for a larger contribution to this engagement is really here.

I'm starting a thread for that one .. - most likely later this evening or tomorrow morning. I've been discussing the burgeoning PNA signal since two days ago ... We're emerging a system into a background numerical correlation. Those 'usually' come down to details when that's the case. Too early for such specifics, of course, but early heads for what (imho ) is maturing into a valid signal has been sufficiently met with success in the past and this is one of those -.

from a super synoptic scope that's a dangerous period of time.

I would definitely watch that 18th -21st period of time. I don't suspect that's merely an artifact of noise.

It's marginal though... 1 In my experience over the many years of modeling, marginality in runs routinely favors the warm side beyond D5 in guidance... We're out there around D11/12 with that thing so...it's probably all moot for now. In the old days ...through the 1990s early 2000s, most 'blue bombs' actually spent time as cold/CCB head rains when in the outer/ext range. 2 In recent years ... I've noticed a subtle difference in actual marginal scenarios - those that are inside of D4 or in modeling, so presumed reasonably accurate. Marginal actually has begun to favor warmth - I call that the 'flip direction' When we have been right on the fence in guidance that has a pallet of p-typs through an isothermal sounding at 0 C ... we've lost our latitude magic. Yes, it's a subtlety I believe may be connected with CC

Remember we were musing the other day over the lack of wind this autumn. heh. That backside of the NAM/GFS solutions would go some distance toward correcting that impression

The meteorology of this thing is interesting enough for me. Sensibly? hey, if snows even an inch after the frontal axis slips passed any location that will be 60 not 4 hours prior, that's notable. The whole situation may yet adjust more SE, too, so that description above may need to changed. I think we're getting some morphology out of a data relay off the Pacific that we don't normal observe ( as much...) in recent modeling. Bit of a wild card there.

Basically ... the models want to bring a last minute snow correction right up to the town just west of ...where ever Ray happens to be when this things passing through... For our collective want of Rockwellian holiday mood and specter, let's get him on a fairy ride to about 40 MI S of ACK and drop anchor. That oughta post-card our cause rather nicely

That's an impressive shift for present modeling standards in the Global s ...not so sure about the NAM's bi-polar tendencies beyond 48 hours... However, it seems to be behaving this time given what's going on with the other guidance et al. I'll tell ya, another shift of that magnitude, SE, and we bring snow collapse and real totals contention into the Berks - Monads axis

This is an important ( fascinating if you're a nerd like me ) aspect above ( bold). If true, it's a part of my faster hemisphere hypothesis - which has been recently corroborated by ... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-023-01884-1#citeas (probably other pubs unknown -) ..Anyway, it's "possible" that what you're describing may be an emergence of error forcing that was not as prevalent during the 'growth spurt' era of modeling technology in the 1970s-2000. The idea being that we engineer tools that suffice the observations of our environment - such that these tools' heredity may not be designed to account for a quickening atmosphere sending along balloons that sample the "wrong" region of the troughs and ridges. That's really cool!

Things to consider with a deeper sfc PP wrt wind. The pressure drop in the core of the approaching cyclogenesis along the boundary, offsets the gradient ahead of it, such that the winds don't respond as quickly as the isobars would suggest. It's real technical ...but on the back side, the pressure fall/rise couplet can induce a more active isollabaric wind response.

I've opined in the past that data assimilation has (apparently) significantly improved enough over previous generation(s) of the technology that we don't typically get substantive correction once Pac impulses relay into the denser objective sounding grid ... but, it is what is ... if this sudden increased trough mechanics goes on to be real, it would seem that is most culpable.

I noticed the NAM morphed the trough into a subtle but perhaps crucially more negative tilt/conserved strength, too, when comparing the prior 00z to this 06z. The 12z's rollin' in now.

Actually ... I didn't think to check this until after I posted that. This sudden increase in trough mechanics the GFS trended over the last two consecutive runs 'MIGHT' be a data-assimilation related correction going on?

I’m suspicious the GFS is too zealous with the total wave space potency. I know folks are clambering for excitement/anything to break the monotony as of late so we have our fun with the GFS run… But both the GGEM and Euro also being inside 96 hrs and coming in subdued gives me a little pause. Really what I am seeing in the very recent GFS trough mechanics is the S arc of the L/W is suddenly large compared to the prior runs and it’s not abundantly clear where the GFS gets that oomph/negative tilting thing from. If it goes down that way it’ll be interesting to science why/where that was missed until suddenly these last two runs. Before those… The actual conversion to more of this, a strong, cold front actually made sense for the compression of the field and a fast flow and all that. Interesting.

I think you mean “ram us in the bum” btw …. “Oh the weather outside is frightful”

He's a great author of that sort of write. I think he has others; shame on me for not owning any. If anyone is interested, try "Isaac's Storm" - Erik Larson. Fantastic read

Yeah, that much negative departure N/NNE of HA is dead ringer for a +PNA. The flow shape is certainly sending the +PNAP response, but it's weird having the nadir in the east still relatively mild like that. I wonder if the speed of the flow is stretching the wave signature.. That looks like an unstable variation

I wonder if that list were extended back to 1950 ... I bet if anything there's been more since 1990.

It may be sooner ... It's a developing state ( so we'll see - ) but as I described ( bothered to analyze ) this morning, there's a burgeoning +PNA signal between D6 and D10. This 12z ens means'll be interesting in that regard.

Yeah ..I'm aware I was also looking at the GFS' pressure coordinate temperature progs as a basic metric this morning and it's not clear in that product if there is in fact that type of stratospheric intrusion taking place that leads to the down welling . But ... in deference to other's data sourcing and so forth I didn't mention it. The full manifold of data sources from the American side looks rather climo to me so far. We'll see. If one bothers to look at the domain going back to 1979 monitoring, ... warm perturbations occur far more frequently than an actual warm burst that goes on to down well and actually forces the AO domain.

The basic zonal temp anomaly provided by shows a thermal intrusion taking place at this time. As Chuck hinted, SSW have a time lag correlation. This is ( or should be ) known. The correlation is between 20 and 30 days prior to AO response. Also, SSW can come, register a -AO response, and it meant nothing. Folks should also be aware, there are other planetary aspects that can modulate/interfere with how a -AO contributes to mid level pattern, and/or temperature anomaly distribution - 'where' being paramount. SSW do not always = what one may think. Also ... a warm intrusion may not be propagating downward. That's an important distinction in the subsequent correlation. Many of the SSW in the data set ( from the same source) show that there was a cyclic presentation of a warm node prior to the main flux, that latter being what then down-wells in the system. That down welling takes a couple of weeks to suspend through the domain depths toward the tropospause - at around the point in which that takes place is when the PV pancakes and bifurcates, which is the -AO response.