Typhoon Tip

They should go ahead, throw hands, and name one of these, ‘Darwin’ There’s a CNNer for em, “Darwin targets rural Americana gulf folk, y’all” Officials take the wrong delicate touchy feely tact. They shouldn’t warn and impose evac … they should say next of kin are responsible for bloated corpse retrieval fees for when your own frozen assets can no longer cover the cost of clean up.

Maybe Opal, too actually Opal was 95

Yeah … no doubt. My snark was aimed at CNNs headline rabble rousing lol. They take NWS statements like never in that region …and convert it never in your life life life

Dreaded pin prick eye

RI ?

mm, I guess if this really true ...or turns out true, it technically would be a once in a life timer. I just don't like CNN's divisive tact they normally take -

Here comes the CNN machine ... Idalia could be a once-in-a-lifetime event

I'm not sure I've ever seen that agency publish a legendary fresco that didn't feature some peregrination of just exactly what the kielbasas want to savor over

Imho, Idalia just like in the last 90 minutes, took on a look that resembles a hurricane an not just some blob concealing a circulation underneath.

Can you imagine if AVN1 won that debate as a category 5'er

Oh, wait a second ... is there a "George01" perhaps? hm

Sometimes I wonder if George001 is really a salient topic-relevant adult that upon occasion ... allows his kid to post while incognito using his dad's account. A 13-year old occasionally posting with all the unrestrained enthusiasm typically found in the imagination of a small boy ... The dad probably figures ...meh, no one's reputation in this social media'sphere is ultimately significant enough. It doesn't extend anywhere or ultimately matter. ...I dunno. He's probably right - I'm utterly flummoxed how a post like this above ^ can be follow-up but these ... truly hyperbolic cryo-dystopian blizzard sci-fi novellas. Seemingly grown from a virga shrouded cumulus cloud in an otherwise cloudless Alberta Clipper dent; how exactly they are originated from the exact same source is beyond me.

wait - how old are you guys ?

Yup ... ... question is, how much so. It's getting late. Yeah. But that may be more of a psychological limitation. LOL. I'm not a huge fan of the solar dimming argument...( I've seen 80+ in February, we can do 95 on the hot side of the Equinox). Just a matter of parameterization. The models seem to want to create the scaffolding to support a pretty good solid 5 to 7 day significant anomaly potential, but then they play games with perturbations in the details ... kind of a something anything imaginable to fall short of that potential. Some times these idiosyncrasies disappear/proven model noise. The Euro/GGEM had 18C at 850 mbs with a couple of days pulsing to 21C ... in a seemingly well mixed lower tropospheric continental flow. 2-meter temperatures? 83 ...um, okay.

Capitalism doesn't does solve everything ... https://phys.org/news/2023-08-climate-changing-human-billion-deaths-century.html

Plus, I suspect it gets hotter for us here relative to 850 mb - assuming mixing depth. Our sigma is a higher surface pressure. That's why 23C ...albeit rare here, gets us our 104 rarity. They need to 26C at 750' elevation to get that hot. The other aspect, it was 99/80 at one max point at MDW and ORD there... If you take the DP down, they would have been hotter. The GFS just has a bug up it's physical ass when it comes to BL thermodynamics and it's the handling of theta-e it seems to have never been very good with going back several versions since they start churning new ones out every 18 months or so.

It was 26C 850 mb over ORD last week ... just sayn'

The point is the 'lesson' no comparison was being suggested -

The lessons of Charlie not forgotten... That storm showed what even a modest shift in the discrete track can do to civility that musta felt rather secure in the 6-12 hourly position offered up by the 2004 state of the art ... Granted, normally above the 95 percentile confidence - a 15 mile "tick" or wobble. It shifted like 15 miles S as it was nearing the coast. I recall patrons of a diner that clearly had it's roof peeled off in the background, being interviewed... They were coming off as though it were somehow the prediction fault they were "caught off guard". There's no accounting for the profound stupidity found in the general population. Just slack-jawed wrong for more reasons to begin with here. So hands being cuffed by lack of another method ...they have to over guess the impact region. This thing has east bump nearing the coast written all over it, too.

Yeah, the weakest of all the Jedi ... Maybe that's why Obi was named 'Wan' ... .. though it always seemed that way. I always thought the cinema writers/story tellers were either holding back with him, while he's getting his ass handed to him by some Sith or Vader ...etc, or he was hiding the fact that he was kind of weak sauce. These other Jedi were Earth movers in their hand-to-hand combat scenes. Much more lithe and acrobatic. Obi Wan was always sort of hiding behind some philosophy of taking the higher road... thinking his way out. So it seemed - okay. I thought Luke was like that too a little bit. He was really good with the Light Saber, but he never moved stuff - as much - with his mind. Seemed to struggle there a little. Maybe he was like abstractly a good looking kid with a learning disability. Take "Empire Strikes Back" ... he ends up upside down, tied off and helpless in an ice cave, while some man eating snow monster has him lined up on the menu. His Saber is helplessly lodged in the wall of ice and snow some 10 feet away. With swelling timpani drums and dystopian keyboard synths in the background, he inhales deeply as he rolls his eyes back into his head. Temple veins pulsing, the sword begins to jiggle - 'oh he's gonna do it; he's gonna do it' no doubt. The little Jedi engine that could ... it's at last freed in the nick of time so that in one motion he cuts him self from manacles and dispatches said monster. Other Jedis are flicking their hand and half a building collapses... Floating through the air while solving equations and shit. Why the hell aren't they going at it against Vader and Siths. It's like the good heroes of that whole saga are kind of 'wan' ... or weak? Underdogs I suppose.

As far as what it means for CC... mmm - but, the "CC warming" (as in delta -) isn't as fast as a single model run, putting up 40 to 50 dm of unbalanced medium at planetary scales, like Brian's post/ Euro ensemble means has it. The GEFs does it too. Yeah, so, I wasn't meaning to implicate CC in that. Lol. I'm sure it plays a decimal part. But these guidance means seem to end up in that exotically warm state, which really vastly outpaces and surpasses the CC delta.

No one asked ... just an op ed moment: There seems to be a 'prediction competition' with regard to this warm ENSO era? Perhaps non-disclosed... Personally, I believe that while a precise prediction "weather" (nyuk nyuk) a given warm(cool) ENSO period may have some value, only "some". Then, considering such precision can't really be made given the present day convention, it seems the consternation and energy spent doing so only provides a very limited return value... Somebody involved in this forum engagement may or may not covet some sort of unique genius in ENSO prediction research ... If so, why you hangin' around here? Go to NCEP and offer your services for 150,000K/yr. But even if you could ... the utility side after the fact is still only partial. I don't mean to imply one should not try - it may be a fun hobby if nothing else. Otherwise, the best use of one's time is researching the bigger picture, the fuller planetary integral of forces that have become just as ( if not more so... ) important in forecasting how/what ENSO means in winter forcing. It seems more and more so that the constant "fuzz" of competing constructive vs destructive interference' amid that total manifold, 'emerges' the winter complexion - this more synergistic approach is intuitive, really. Because very discrete 'strength' distinctions are meaningless noise compared to the machinery of the whole thing. I would start in determining the frequency and possible causes of the uncoupled states. These appear to be increasing in frequency spanning the last 10 to 20 years. There's nothing really worse in this science (or any discipline) than thinking you've go it, operating along a pathway, only to find out it was paved by false positives.

yeah figured it's garbage

Impressive couple of operational GFS runs overnight. Seeing the 850 mb anomaly plumes actually near D5 before vanishing is one helluva an achievement (for this now geriatric summer). It's been almost 5 weeks of 'big heat' signaling into the D10+ range. I've seen these kind of summers before. The pattern sets in early with either a trough in the E variant, or the Maritime version ... close enough in this latter sense that we have a constant mid level NW flow shearing heat off and preventing it from getting NE of Pittsburgh. Either way, we block. Meanwhile,the whole summer, the models attempt to do so with heat in the extended... Finally, in September, we get a 3 day heat wave ... once the sun is wan.