Typhoon Tip

GFS just can’t wait to get us back into tough. Throws everything it can invent to lower the heat too, then sends us into early frosts.

wow. NAM has 28 C above the 2-meter slope temp tomorrow across metro west of Boston. That's usually good for 32C walking the dog.

What we want to see is a switch in the sign of the angular momentum fields, from positive to negative... (everyone's lost! muah hahahaha) as the TC is approaching PR Essentially ... the positive aspect keeps the TC chugging west across the MDR, because the STR is stronger to the N (in theory ...) with less perforated troughs enticing early polarward motion. Also keeping shearing kinematics low. ...Then, the AAM up and decides to flip negative, which bottoms the flow out over Tennesse-ish, while there is at least a transient -NAO or even tendency there in, over the western limb of the N. Atl domain. That former provides a 'weakness' that pulls the system parabolically NW toward the EC, and thereafter, between it and the ridge/tendency NE, a steering conduit between also is an accelerating wind as you move N in latitude. That's the idealized super structure. There's probably wiggle room, but as long some 70 ... 80+% of that total relay of players are on the stage, you can say you have a good set up. Cyclones can hit the key slot - or has a chance to ... - and moving quickly by the time it's crossing over the shelf waters S of LI, the rest can be history.

It's interesting ... these models ( all of them) appear to be seeing the +d(GLAAM) state of the subtropics in allowing this next 'flurry' of MDR activity to deliver one into positions so far west across the Basin. Indirectly, our incoming dry period of days with positive temperature anomalies ... really is part of all that. The same super synoptic scale forcing that's altered the pattern for this new paradigm, is also what sets up the Basin to allow a TC to evade recurving earlier... Anyway, that all said ...and assuming we find ourselves with a well-formed entity passing through the climate key-slot lat/lon (no less) like the models are suggesting, there would be work that needs to be done with the particulars between the Great Lakes and NF. The circulation mode isn't right. There's plenty of time though.

it's a fun time of the year for us dorks ... I mean, the 00z 850 mb layout across this side of the hemisphere increases in 0C integral by a factor of 2 or 3, above the 70th, by the time it's out to D10.

oh. ha. helps to look at more recent guidance; the Euro's 00z apparently abandoned that. makes sense ...

So y'all not spectin' any influence from that weird trough/capture of Idalia corpse routine the Euro was drilling west toward the coast, then? Not snarkin'; seriously askin; I suggest no myself, but it was an interesting retrograde/ quasi loop behavior for so high in latitude. If that were to take place, we get CD'ed east of 91

47 was the low.

Not sure what the “standard sauce” is In the old climate eh hm ..between the 15th of august and the end of the month we normally clean house with one of these and plumb the 40s at night. If the shoe fits. Sep this is 60s. Oct this is upper 40s. That said … the old paradigms are vanquished … or more and more, seems to be.

18z GFS went warmer again by total synoptic manifold. Just heard that this was the first August since 1986 that Central Park failed a 90 degree reading. It would be a muse if Sep went the other way

Weak sauce shot across the bow.

I think that’s more mid Novie to early Jan but don’t otherwise disagree.

Too many small favorable domain spaces cut off from one another. Interspersed with broken steering channels and sometimes shear. I'm not liking it

I like how the 00z Euro finagles a way to prevent SNE from getting hot from those synoptics next week, but taking the something/anything method of approach. lol - It take Idalia's guts... reinvigorates and does a loop SE of the Cape and parks it there so that the warmest 850s' never really get east of the Hudson.

LOL, yup... I think it is poetically fitting as a violent disapproval for summer... Pretty significant failure ( being silly here of course...), then underscored by +20C 850s being well mixed, after Met summer officially ends. haha. But more seriously though, there's some use to defining 'when the corner is turned' so to speak. And it's not so much the scaler value of the temperature, but it's really more like a whole appeal. This air mass is in fact this cool because the hemispehre is tipping away. A month ago, this is 7 warmer ...so to speak.

shot before the shot across the bow air mass ... felt almost nippy on the open-toed shoes and shorts this morning. Coolest/dries it's been since prior to the June stench pattern ... that went on to claim the entire summer... This air mass ear-marks the end of summer for me. It does... despite whatever warm signals moving forward, those are henceforth autumn anomalies to me. This statement may inflame certain warm-biased participants, understood - what can I say... No offense intended. Time to adult reality

as though they want/need it - it should be without passion.

the inevitable ridge shirking has begun

Not sure where to put this .. https://phys.org/news/2023-08-additional-earth-due-air-quality.html

MJO looks like it wants to enter a destructive interference with warm ENSO ... who knows how instrumental it will be in modulating matters over the ensuing week(s).

yeah... tru - the floor is dropping

Should pass pretty quickly from frontal scunge/murk and wet, right into sun as there's a pretty clearly defined back edge to the baroclinic axis entering western CT/MA ... I like days like that, provided that happens before say 4 pm... It's interesting how different the day will be at 5 compared to where it "was" at 10am when that happens.

Still not completely sold on a solid uninterrupted span of hot days... By hot I mean 90+ .. but obviously 87/72 gets the job done... I guess indirectly, "where does the front end up" The ridge is kind of flat. It has nodes of 594 ( in itself interesting that we are still raising the roof of the troposphere that high, this late, so frequently in guidance ... let's ask CNN why. LOL ) ... below the westerlies. But there are S/W running along S Canada which can easily correct SE once east of 90W. I think we're good for a 2-day stint at interesting heat though.

or Camille

Since this will be the first cat 3 or 4 in that region is it cuz of global warming ?