Typhoon Tip

As far as what it means for CC... mmm - but, the "CC warming" (as in delta -) isn't as fast as a single model run, putting up 40 to 50 dm of unbalanced medium at planetary scales, like Brian's post/ Euro ensemble means has it. The GEFs does it too. Yeah, so, I wasn't meaning to implicate CC in that. Lol. I'm sure it plays a decimal part. But these guidance means seem to end up in that exotically warm state, which really vastly outpaces and surpasses the CC delta.

No one asked ... just an op ed moment: There seems to be a 'prediction competition' with regard to this warm ENSO era? Perhaps non-disclosed... Personally, I believe that while a precise prediction "weather" (nyuk nyuk) a given warm(cool) ENSO period may have some value, only "some". Then, considering such precision can't really be made given the present day convention, it seems the consternation and energy spent doing so only provides a very limited return value... Somebody involved in this forum engagement may or may not covet some sort of unique genius in ENSO prediction research ... If so, why you hangin' around here? Go to NCEP and offer your services for 150,000K/yr. But even if you could ... the utility side after the fact is still only partial. I don't mean to imply one should not try - it may be a fun hobby if nothing else. Otherwise, the best use of one's time is researching the bigger picture, the fuller planetary integral of forces that have become just as ( if not more so... ) important in forecasting how/what ENSO means in winter forcing. It seems more and more so that the constant "fuzz" of competing constructive vs destructive interference' amid that total manifold, 'emerges' the winter complexion - this more synergistic approach is intuitive, really. Because very discrete 'strength' distinctions are meaningless noise compared to the machinery of the whole thing. I would start in determining the frequency and possible causes of the uncoupled states. These appear to be increasing in frequency spanning the last 10 to 20 years. There's nothing really worse in this science (or any discipline) than thinking you've go it, operating along a pathway, only to find out it was paved by false positives.

yeah figured it's garbage

Impressive couple of operational GFS runs overnight. Seeing the 850 mb anomaly plumes actually near D5 before vanishing is one helluva an achievement (for this now geriatric summer). It's been almost 5 weeks of 'big heat' signaling into the D10+ range. I've seen these kind of summers before. The pattern sets in early with either a trough in the E variant, or the Maritime version ... close enough in this latter sense that we have a constant mid level NW flow shearing heat off and preventing it from getting NE of Pittsburgh. Either way, we block. Meanwhile,the whole summer, the models attempt to do so with heat in the extended... Finally, in September, we get a 3 day heat wave ... once the sun is wan.

I've actually noticed the unbalancing for about 15 years frankly, and it's getting more coherent (as in changing). And yes "more" blue but not enough blue ... does materialize as those distance ranges near.

Does the forum admin really want the main Weather and Disco to be spam bombed ?

Heat wave released … a week later boom

Word! I just got done saying something similar. The 'pattern' is warming and supports anomalies, but this model fills it in with this kind of error. also, the model cumulatively ends up with too high of heights(equatorial-side) and too low of heights (polar-side) of the meant jet - particularly observable beyond D6. I noticed this in the winter actually. Which ironically ... it's less noticeable during winters since ~ 2004 ..since the winters became/becoming gradient saturated with higher temperature gradients in the transition latitudes --> higher wind velocities. It's like the physics of the model has the right idea, but is too extreme there-over.

The GFS is an odd model. The scaffolding of it's synoptics is often accumulating a cold bias by the time it gets beyond 5 and appreciably more so, 10 days.. Yet, despite that, it fleshes out said scaffolding with a total clown heat-show in the boundary layer warm sectors like that. We can see upper 90s and blow most records away and do so by a goodly margin just fine - also in the integral if that were to last days.

Right - It's a pain in the ass, too because one of my forecast matrices involves the CDD vs HDD ... The increase is linear when calculating the CDD, but the HI is logarithmic ... It seems the calculation needs to be modified for the HI, because even though the "HI," or "Apparent" temperature is really only a reasonably close approximation, it's still useful enough. And, my personal belief is that the HI is what really drives much of the electrical consumption .. .particularly in the upper ranges.

Pretty exceptional warm signal - relative to calendar - over the last couple of modeling cycles. American telecon spread combined with trend techniques ... not exactly opposed either.

essentially unlivable without environmentally controlled option -

Certainly true for the lower mid Atlantic ... .. if there is a late season heat signal, which there is, it's more apt to affect after Thursday/Friday up our way, anyway. Then uncertainty as to magnitude and how long heading into week 2. Labor day may actually be quite warm and humid if things break right.

that's weird ... y'all's posts all just posted twice

I don't understand why these synoptic products depict those negative 850 "anomalies" over the (assumed) high country like that, when the entire region is under a synopsis lidded by the opposite. Where does that come from? They all do that, too, not just the Euro.

No convection later ? not meaning to be snarky, but it feels humid and the LI's are still hovering around -3 at regional scales. Thing is, ...tomorrow. The GGEM/NAM (stopped looking) have that kind of inversion miasma with raging mist look. A circumstance that I think might be mitigated if there is less BL loading and more sun bake today? I haven't really been paying attention to the dailies over the past week. Firmly in the other hobbies time of year.

So... last night's Euro run marks the 5th consecutive day, so 10 cycles worth of models runs ..., whence the model puts up 18+ C at 850 MB on a continental wind trajectory, for D7/8/9 and 10. Across none of those runs along that span of time has that layout made it to D6. The only reason I'm willing to buy this time .. (with a really cozy warranty -), is because the GFS is somehow managing against its own cold bias in that time range, to do something similar. Meanwhile, the 850 mb thermal layout above 70N is now consistently below 0C, with pockets of -10C increasing. Nice to see that for winter enthusiasts ... It's like the cirrus over a distant horizon even though there isn't a cloud in the above sky.

that should be the new distinction ... covers all the bases, really. for now on, the day is either 'not good for paving ' or 'good day for paving ' except in summer vs winter, the connotation changes sign, such that we like the ngp in winter, as oppose to summer. if we just stick to that it greatly simplifies the engagement.

I think the distinction between the two is irrelevant since about circa 2004 moving forward

I'm thinking atmospheric arithmetic ... like (A+b+X+y + ... n)N-term type forcing. This go of it, the hemisphere commits to winter gradient/jets and R-wave situation; the result would favor a flat +PNA with fast embedded wave propagation, as well as times of intense ambient wind speeds in mid and upper levels. Tendency mind you ... And, that also would be a mean. Even in the worse seasons, a +PNA can spike intra weekly and get the job done - see February 1995's particularly ongoing putrid winter, then out of nowhere we set up a bombogen Del Marve to interior Maine and we got 10-20" in the interior. And it does matter whether a flat PNA --> PNAP occurs in 1900 vs 1950 vs 2000 vs 2023, too. We have to at some point capitulate to the obvious, namely ... these subsequent seasons are taking place along a warming climate curve, one that is increasingly more logarithmic - meaning accelerating in latter/recent decades. High analog value synoptic set ups, can result a 1900 snow storm as rain in 2023 ...etc... I think we could be storm active ... with quick moving events that may favors rain --> cold transitions. This type of look would not take but a minor adjustment to get those front wall IB snow scenario.. Or, in fairness, rain.

I could envision a pattern scaffold/'shape' tendency that aligns (at times but not always...) with that thinking. Perhaps from late October to mid Dec. But not as much with the details that flesh it out. Like, beware warmer variant.

"Pyrocene"? what - is that a sub-classification for 'The Anthropocene' that's recently been codified by the general consortium? ... Not that it needs elaboration ...but the idea of the Anthropocene is that we the people, of the united state of humanity's innovation having outpaced the checks and balances of the back ground various planetary systems, have breached the point where fucking up said planet, in order to form a more perfect world for ourselves, is officially substantial. And hence forth, we are now proven enough in doing so that we're actually definable as geologically significant force - thus, and epoch known as the Anthropocene. Nice loaded run-on sentence - It just seems logical that trying to define Fire ... Flood, heat and even cold craziness, when these systemic symptoms are really indirectly if not directly causally related to the former, is just reductive and inflammatory (pun intended for purposes of annoying haha). But he may have been tongue-in-cheek anyway. LOL Yeah, kidding aside, ...I don't think it takes much of an idiot (really) to see that we are getting these conflagration explosions like never before. The old mantra/assumption that bad land management is contributory...? doesn't work. How was midriff Canadian continental space a product of poor land management? And ...doing so on every continent at the same time. I gotta say, maybe Maui was just bad timing... but a firestorm on an island is something pretty significantly chilling (sorry) when its surrounded by thousands of miles of water. If we can do it in that geologic setting... we can do it over continental expanses. One aspect I have not seen researched/printed ...is any publication that discusses the carbon footprint of the global surge of fires and the C02 exhaust - the integrated. See, not that you or anyone else reading this asked... but, this is part of the "uncertainty curve" of the Climate Change "feed-back" loop. The CC models that attempt(ed) to project the future world given various degrees of temperature increase, are (sure) vastly more sophisticated compared to those 1990s versions, but ... I don't think any of them are that discrete. Like did they predict fire storms, per se? Certainly not when and extent. Did they predict Methane Hydrate release/explosive out-gassing from ancient permafrost thawing? Did they subsequently release enough green-house gas emissions from these ( as well as the CO2 from all the square-mouthed enraged climate deniers) to the bake? I'm asking here - not declaring. But it seems intuitive that there are unknown feed-backs that have been/are taking place; they can cause this thing to be accelerated. And, we all know that observations of, therein, as well as the attribution sciences tending more and more to confirm, all point to an acceleration display.

SW lower Michigan is in some kind of exotic trouble this evening... jesus. 93/80 at Kalamazoo, with S sfc wind, NW at 700 mb, and SRS just S of a warm boundary that is currently collapsing S of Lake Michigan. Meanwhile, the inversion cloud wave forms have just gone... vanquished, which means their losing CIN - the 'core is exposed' That watch is for the whole gambit. SBCAPEs must be like over 4000

Meanwhile ... we're bustin' our balls over 77/58 Usually there is a heat disparity between the MW and NE ... living here for more summers than many people have ever been alive tells us that is normally true to varying degrees. This seasons might be the biggest variance I've seen. So much deadly heat west, and while we just kept getting colder. Tellin' yeah, we got our head up our collective ass if we try to argue against CC based upon our own experience. LOL

Ha ha... 99/80 at KENW with a southwest lava breeze ... it's 79/72 at KMKE with a NE drift off Lake Michigan. Sound familiar...