Typhoon Tip

may experience with that ... it'll be pretty tight and nucleus'ed ... it'll be a rain ball with thunder maybe ...and it'll clear by 10 am with 77 F DPs and temperatures laboring to make 85 by 5 pm... with some crispies glaciating late, but sun and bermuda blue skies in the interim.

The impetus of that sardonic take there....Kevin, is that it never appears to actually take place... So if Dendy said that than all do accolades on his stunning achievement in model nuances

This might be the longest sustained historic heat signal only existing between 200 and 384 hours that has ever persisted in the GFS ever - haven't checked specifically ... but it seems road surfaces have been melting and railways buckling in that time frame since about February 20th

why would that be trolling exactly ? lol ... people can't be expected to dance around others delusion of personal sensitivity space because some fact of reality happens to not agree - it's not trolling .... it's called, 'tough shit' haha

you didn't ask but what plagues the western civilities of the world is too much affluence ... the thing that obfuscates ...or obscures that factor is that affluence is still not ubiquitously distributed ... The haves still have disproportionately, above fairness, more than the have nots... that is a fairness issue(s) and tend(s) to be misconstrued as destitution, certainly mediated and pressed that way - but it's a faux read. there is enough resource and access to survivability that the vast majority now has the luxury to turn attention away from levers and donkey health, into ideology's preoccupation and that quickly becomes the new essence to life...thus, an the obsession, and survival is quasi transformed into a life-or-death struggle there.. Some longish words there... but if a carrington event turned off the lights and started truly correcting the population downward despite all efforts to prevent the chaos... like this pandemic will ultimately prove a sensationalized failure... people would begin to sober up real, real fast as to what is important. suddenly that democrat...republican...islamic martian from the planet 'differentthanme' that might be able to feed me if i'm willing to show a modicum of understanding and compromise, suddenly becomes a strangely more attractive offer over some delusion of outrage embraced at a self-righteous indignation rally. people need to be humbled back to something like, 'get real you f'n beef-witted crassulent self-centered assholes'

I think there's some chance that folks may be surprised or even struck by how uncomfortable it may become as the week ages... Scott or someone has been mentioning - I was noting yesterday's heat in the upper MA. NYC and LGA obs were both over 94 F in the Metrowest/Utah source... in fact, 95.4...well enough above the 94 to not be saved by the mantra reliance of celsius rounding game people need to petty invoke to not admit it's hot.. lol. Seriously, that was under the radar 'big heat' down in the MA to NY region that got - thankfully for them ...- interrupted by a huge convective a-bomb that exhausted/normalized... Point being, we have not been in an air mass yet this year - that I can personally recall - where this kind of over-achieving heat is even possible - over SNE's interior climo favored regions.. NW/NNE has... I was just looking at the NAM's 12z FOUS grid for KBOS ( which is Logon at geographical point) and the 60 hour is putting up a 575+ dam hypsometric height, with 850s somewhere between 17.5 and 18.5 C..on a SW wind and critical cloud level RH < 50% ...meaning the antecedence between 2pm and 8pm that late afternoon and early evening had ample sun. The SFC is is 28 C...but, the typical 4C add -in for the bottom 20 mb of compression and slope suggests it's 93 minimum, and with those hypsometric values so high...the DP has to be well over 70 despite whatever the MOS is indicating for either of these two metrics. Now, ...the NAM and it's grid could be wrong... but, that is the snap shot objective interpretation of those numbers... and I can assure you, we have not regionally had that kind of HI ...

That is a really interesting synoptic evolution along the EC days 3 thru roughly day 6 ... you kind of have to be an Aspergery nerd to see it but ...that vestigial faux tropical whirl migrating slowly on up ... for lack of better description, "eats" the heat. There is a quasi EML/SW release plume flooding throughout the midriff Ohio Valley and up through the eastern Lakes, NYS and the ST Lawrence...but, the cyclonic whirl - as per the Euro's evolution - is absorbing the 850 mb thermal layout... You fan see it when animating through the frames. It gets weird looking, because day 6 shows that there is still thermally charged 850 mb thermal air left in the wake of the whirl's passing through, but by then there is more of a transient 500 mb deeper layer trough that sets over the NE quadrant... while that heat is still rattling around underneath it. Never seen a 500 mb trough with so much warm air in the lower troposphere.. That's gotta be unstable for one - That has to be a fantastic heat signal in this particular run cycle by day's 9 and 10 tho.. wow. You have a massive heat release there timed under a super-synoptic scaled hemispheric wave length expansion spreading over just about everywhere S of the 45 N between Colorado and NJ/Mass with hydrostatic depths exceeding 594 dm! Unlimited diurnal potential pretty much ...day time highs are limited only by the fact that we have a main sequence yellow dwarf star and at average orbital distance of 93 million miles... otherwise that'd be hell on Earth if that succeeded... During a Pandemic no less ... where's the Bible

He might be right he should’ve just use a different product to elucidate his point… Like I could give that MJO post more credit but the problem I have with that is it the MJO needs to have gradient to transmit wave forcing from the tropics into the mid latitudes and at this time of year the correlations are weak everywhere so I don’t know if that strongly signals that way we are heading into climo heat tho.

That product Erik Fisher uses would not be persistent heat for us it would cause front aftrt front to blast through ablating the heat south would be hot from Detroit to central New Jersey maybe. In his defense he does say much of the country though so as usual we get left out of the party

We had one a month ago in May like this actually vicious thunderstorm came in from the north west like that ... sent a microburst out across the north side of my town and over towards Westford. This seems to be our MO this year

Suspicious… It came right over my town and with a flanking line structure and other lenticulated aspects along the backed edge at sun set Solid performer with sporadic limb damage around town blinding rain and hail and overlapping lightning

NAM has that next BD fisting Monday

I don’t know if you guys have noticed this but we are ‘tucking’ into the mid Atlantic and New England at synoptic and super synoptic scales much more discernibly than we ever used to ...something that started happening more noticeably over the last 20 years but the last five years it’s really gotten bad. This summer with the tutts formulating over the mid Atlantic really is just a function of that folding at the hemispheric scale fascinating really

He may not if this becomes the new norm Frankly I think that we could be seeing more of this kind of stuff because the Hadley cell expansion I think these cut off “ tutts ” that Brian refers to are more common actually because what’s happening is establishing a broader band of easterly trades across the Atlantic and that is stranding wave components in the interface between the H cell and the lower Farrell interface latitudes

Seasonal trend is certainly important… But I think in this next shot southern areas have a chance to pace. But aside from the fact those scalar products for the time frame would offer comparable or even hotter temperature metro west than N Vermont - wed/thu

Oh ha right. might not have been the best elevation example. Not sure but the point stands

Yeah not a contest here… I’m talking about how to interpret those anomaly products; has nothing to do with comparisons and heat trophies. The other aspect to keep in mind is that an 18°C 850 mb of temperature over Burlington Vermont will not be as hot at the sfc as it would be over Framingham Massachusetts because the latter has a denser air mass at a lower sigma surface/ greater compression

At 850 mb? pay attention plus the question regards not now ... mid range.

You guys may want to associate those 'anomaly' products at 850 mb with the actual temperatures at that level, when comparing NNE to SNE... SNE 850 mb climate may in fact be warmer than NNE, where as the anomalies deviations are relative to the climate over that region - if NNE runs cooler, and both regions have the same 850 mb temperature ...the anomaly will appear greater up N. But the anomaly is not associated with the BL heat potential - the scalar value is...

Kind of interesting this morning... I see this alot, where a synoptic scale frontal passage takes place, and it gets "sort of" confused/mottled in with being a back-door ...but it's technically not. The BD actually comes in as a separate near-trailing phenomenon during this sequencing cool back scenarios, ..and as this satellite loop nicely demos... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined it's a separate entity . These types of BDs are not the same as those that happen alone.

Decent heat wave signal there... and I don't believe that deeper tropospheric mass transport favors NNE necessarily on that ...when blending the Euro with some portion or another of these recent GFS runs.. This 18z GFS version is probably about as hot as this particular model is capable of being ... pretty much day 5.5 through D12 or 13 averages above 17C at 850 ...with episodes around 20... There one day out there with a 582 dm thickness contour closed off from NYC to PWM...with a 99 at ALB and 98 BOS respectively - I'm not sure it confident but it is July.

Yeah that back door is probably a slam dunk given that mid level circulation construct from central to mid latitude Canada down through the Maritimes… Might as well draw the shades and not even look at another weather chart for about seven days if you’re in for the heat and humidity because whatever the sfc pressure pattern is modeled?… if it’s not cold drizzly butt fisting from the northeast toss it That pattern is going to create a mass discontinuity that will slam into the coastal areas east of the appellations and white green mountains 100% of the time. Now if the models are wrong about the governing flow construct ... Put it this way… It’s like you have to correct for more back door front potential and realization given that flow structure where is if the flow flattens up there then we can ease off

Bingo! Nothing motivates would-be noblemen and state's people like the moods of their constituency - the only other way around that in a democratic voter-society is cheating. Thank god there's no ... Wait a sec - Humor aside, if the ballast of lever pullers abandon the profligate presumption of entitlement to natural resources... finally connecting with the consequence-causality circuitry [ add finite science here .. ], the complexion of the office seeker is forced to change. But note I said 'complexion.' Execution in keeping with those promises that answer to ethos is entirely up to institutions put in place over the generations, charged with the responsibility to ensure those elected officials are 'owning up' ... It's a good thing we haven't seen any attempt at the dissolution of those agencies and institution, then, right ? Wait a sec - The total model of corruption could not be more patently clearly afoot in IR -based societies,. And, I still posit that the main reason why such brazen antics go down, and there is only passive moral recovery or even much vitriol at all, is because of post-Industrial Revolution giving rise to conveniences that rescue the existential state of society at all levels, from having to eat the shit of their own mistakes. But, the environment in that metaphor, quite succinctly becomes the dumping ground. In a baser 101 philosophical perspective: nature is about balancing positive and negatives... That's it. All of reality exist because at some quantum Plank scale...there is an imbalance that is attempting to get to neutral. That tug of war integrates to a Universe of time...space... energy and your life! And everything and anything that can be perceived happens because of that scaffold. So, it is quite logical to assume that 5 billion Industrial breast feeders are getting fat, something else has to be getting skinny. Metaphors are fun... Simple terms, if we lived in a reality where mistakes resulted in pain? Oh f yeah, people would sit up and take notice ...immediately. But the IR wipes humanity ass, by gobbling up even more resources to "save" them from having to conserve .. protecting all from seeing the consequences. Thus, the ease at convenience to deny, becomes self-reinforcing: 'I denied it last week, I got a raise, therefore, denial is right.' And that becomes a runaway selfish culture among many other abhorrent characters.

Thought y'all might find this interesting... https://phys.org/news/2019-12-el-nio-event-year.html

This goes along with the expansion ( Globally) of the Hadley Cell into the lower Ferrel latitudes... Among the charming symptoms: shifting mean storm tracks farther N of previous century(s) observation, is recently noted; speeding up the tropospheric deep layer wind velocities. This may be decadally ephemeral .. lasting while the polar regions are still sufficiently differentiable relative to the subtropics in winters, such that surplus latent heat stows in the lower latitudes cause increasing slope/ geopotential gradients everywhere in the ambient means. When/if the polar regions continue to warm, this particular effect may wane into a circumstance unknown. North America tending to run cooler ( though still warmer than normal at times ... ) relative to the other continental areas of the planet, due to it's unique geographical circumstance in the total Pacific-North American loading pattern - which Pac heat --> tendency for increased NE Pacific ridging ...which concomitantly supplies an enhanced tendency for western/central Canadian deep layer circulation response and NW/N conveyor(s). And... the MJO. It is just going to behave in concert and form, in it's own way, relative to the HC forcing/changes, just as well... This is not discussing how any of GW and the MJO effects say, Australia, or Indonesia or the Eurasian regions or anywhere else... Africa and Mediterranean climates ..etc. It's just mentioning that there are noteworthy and observable ongoing changes in the N/A circulation tendencies.