Typhoon Tip

Yeah not a contest here… I’m talking about how to interpret those anomaly products; has nothing to do with comparisons and heat trophies. The other aspect to keep in mind is that an 18°C 850 mb of temperature over Burlington Vermont will not be as hot at the sfc as it would be over Framingham Massachusetts because the latter has a denser air mass at a lower sigma surface/ greater compression

At 850 mb? pay attention plus the question regards not now ... mid range.

You guys may want to associate those 'anomaly' products at 850 mb with the actual temperatures at that level, when comparing NNE to SNE... SNE 850 mb climate may in fact be warmer than NNE, where as the anomalies deviations are relative to the climate over that region - if NNE runs cooler, and both regions have the same 850 mb temperature ...the anomaly will appear greater up N. But the anomaly is not associated with the BL heat potential - the scalar value is...

Kind of interesting this morning... I see this alot, where a synoptic scale frontal passage takes place, and it gets "sort of" confused/mottled in with being a back-door ...but it's technically not. The BD actually comes in as a separate near-trailing phenomenon during this sequencing cool back scenarios, ..and as this satellite loop nicely demos... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined it's a separate entity . These types of BDs are not the same as those that happen alone.

Decent heat wave signal there... and I don't believe that deeper tropospheric mass transport favors NNE necessarily on that ...when blending the Euro with some portion or another of these recent GFS runs.. This 18z GFS version is probably about as hot as this particular model is capable of being ... pretty much day 5.5 through D12 or 13 averages above 17C at 850 ...with episodes around 20... There one day out there with a 582 dm thickness contour closed off from NYC to PWM...with a 99 at ALB and 98 BOS respectively - I'm not sure it confident but it is July.

Yeah that back door is probably a slam dunk given that mid level circulation construct from central to mid latitude Canada down through the Maritimes… Might as well draw the shades and not even look at another weather chart for about seven days if you’re in for the heat and humidity because whatever the sfc pressure pattern is modeled?… if it’s not cold drizzly butt fisting from the northeast toss it That pattern is going to create a mass discontinuity that will slam into the coastal areas east of the appellations and white green mountains 100% of the time. Now if the models are wrong about the governing flow construct ... Put it this way… It’s like you have to correct for more back door front potential and realization given that flow structure where is if the flow flattens up there then we can ease off

Bingo! Nothing motivates would-be noblemen and state's people like the moods of their constituency - the only other way around that in a democratic voter-society is cheating. Thank god there's no ... Wait a sec - Humor aside, if the ballast of lever pullers abandon the profligate presumption of entitlement to natural resources... finally connecting with the consequence-causality circuitry [ add finite science here .. ], the complexion of the office seeker is forced to change. But note I said 'complexion.' Execution in keeping with those promises that answer to ethos is entirely up to institutions put in place over the generations, charged with the responsibility to ensure those elected officials are 'owning up' ... It's a good thing we haven't seen any attempt at the dissolution of those agencies and institution, then, right ? Wait a sec - The total model of corruption could not be more patently clearly afoot in IR -based societies,. And, I still posit that the main reason why such brazen antics go down, and there is only passive moral recovery or even much vitriol at all, is because of post-Industrial Revolution giving rise to conveniences that rescue the existential state of society at all levels, from having to eat the shit of their own mistakes. But, the environment in that metaphor, quite succinctly becomes the dumping ground. In a baser 101 philosophical perspective: nature is about balancing positive and negatives... That's it. All of reality exist because at some quantum Plank scale...there is an imbalance that is attempting to get to neutral. That tug of war integrates to a Universe of time...space... energy and your life! And everything and anything that can be perceived happens because of that scaffold. So, it is quite logical to assume that 5 billion Industrial breast feeders are getting fat, something else has to be getting skinny. Metaphors are fun... Simple terms, if we lived in a reality where mistakes resulted in pain? Oh f yeah, people would sit up and take notice ...immediately. But the IR wipes humanity ass, by gobbling up even more resources to "save" them from having to conserve .. protecting all from seeing the consequences. Thus, the ease at convenience to deny, becomes self-reinforcing: 'I denied it last week, I got a raise, therefore, denial is right.' And that becomes a runaway selfish culture among many other abhorrent characters.

Thought y'all might find this interesting... https://phys.org/news/2019-12-el-nio-event-year.html

This goes along with the expansion ( Globally) of the Hadley Cell into the lower Ferrel latitudes... Among the charming symptoms: shifting mean storm tracks farther N of previous century(s) observation, is recently noted; speeding up the tropospheric deep layer wind velocities. This may be decadally ephemeral .. lasting while the polar regions are still sufficiently differentiable relative to the subtropics in winters, such that surplus latent heat stows in the lower latitudes cause increasing slope/ geopotential gradients everywhere in the ambient means. When/if the polar regions continue to warm, this particular effect may wane into a circumstance unknown. North America tending to run cooler ( though still warmer than normal at times ... ) relative to the other continental areas of the planet, due to it's unique geographical circumstance in the total Pacific-North American loading pattern - which Pac heat --> tendency for increased NE Pacific ridging ...which concomitantly supplies an enhanced tendency for western/central Canadian deep layer circulation response and NW/N conveyor(s). And... the MJO. It is just going to behave in concert and form, in it's own way, relative to the HC forcing/changes, just as well... This is not discussing how any of GW and the MJO effects say, Australia, or Indonesia or the Eurasian regions or anywhere else... Africa and Mediterranean climates ..etc. It's just mentioning that there are noteworthy and observable ongoing changes in the N/A circulation tendencies.

Keep in mind ... PDO means Pacific "Decade" Oscillation. These vicissitudes in the SST layouts will come and go, usually per local time scaled sea-surface stressing events. But they are as that suggest, ephemeral. They offer the jagged ups and down along the longer time-scaled curves, the typical behavior of any of these statistical inference efforts in nature. By conceptual understanding of what that means, there can be transient spans that may not represent the actual PDO. Right now the longer, 'weightier' curve shows that the index has been positive since the year 2015 or so, as I'm sure someone's pointed out .. Some of the months spanning 2018.. mm, the index is not exactly overbearingly positive, with many monthly values within mere decimals of 0, with a couple of blips in there where the index fell minutely negative ( < 0 ). I'm having difficulty finding the exact numbers for 2019 ( to date ), but multiple sources match one another and indicate the curve is sloping presently toward neutral ( 0 ), whether it is actually there yet. In any case, PDO correlation against present and -though-to-be correlated patterns, would need to be tested at relative PDO strengths. In most scientific statistics, by definition, when a curve approaches 0, that usually infer "N/S" ( no skill ) which mean equal probabilities.

Uh, "yes even" You'd be a sociopath if you altered peoples genetic construct without complete transparency and mutual concurrence ... I mean, this is silly at this point.

Wow ...so ur kinda sorta out there, huh Not me... no one f's with my DNA thank you. I think you'll find that is the consistent position among most human beings whom are proposition with the idea of having their innate sense of wonder chromosomely castrated. Yeeeah just sayn'

I don't believe that assumption logically follows ... ( bold ) If one employs technologies that do not profligate resource consumption, than there's no problem - that's just math. The paradox you mentioned is an economics theorem; not sure I see the logic of why that means we should not supplant fossil fuels with green/renewable energy sourcing, when the latter drops the "exhaust" of humanity below the thresholds that adversely affects/effects the vitality and eventual gestalt of the total environment. The theorem defaults to non-detrimental. That's what this is all about - can the background absorb without forcing - The complete "commune" vision of Humanity has zero plausibility and/or logistically managed reality to it. There's too much power for ingenuity and wonder for advancing discovery as part of our evolutionary gift to withstand these motivations, which requires capacity that far exceeds the bucket and lever society paradigm. What I'm saying is... tech is part of our evolution as the true tool manipulator species - you can't remove that any more than you can ask someone to ... remove a hand or a foot. You can't do it. The solution is harmony - it's just that right now... we generate more din and discord, when we gear resource acquisition straight into the machinery greed-based economics. That much I agree with in principle/over-tones to some of what you imply.

O, I C ... No I don't actually... what the in hell do all these abbreviations mean in that product's context? What's "PV" ... does that mean polar vortex. What in the f are "WEO" ... "IEA" and NPS... Oh, I see ... some of those are expanded in the subheading.. .But what is PV again?

Nah... I was referencing a prior context - that statement you are responding to is not that context. The prior context did thematically portray Gaia as some sort of agent of intelligence that was strategizing the demise of Humanity - almost as a hand-throwing acquiescence to the notion that Humanity cannot be reasoned with, so blind extermination is the only recourse... Muah hahaha. Something along those lines was implicit - That would be fodder for science fiction/fantasy. But Gaia "self- regulating" - I'm not sure I agree with that either. I've heard other's sort of crutch on Gaia in principle, like it'll "protect" and "save" Earth from us... Mmm. No. It's not regulating shit when there's a mass-extinction already underway. I understand the modern definition contains that terminology, self-regulation, but that is being conflated with self-protecting. Even Gaia theory would have its break point... Think of it this way ( logically ): if the organic life that is supposed to be working WITH the inorganic Earth to produce a synergy-related positive feed-back that supports life, what does it mean if the life part of that formula ceases to exist? No Gaia, that's what - It's failing is what that is. And just like all the major mass-extinction events, regardless of whether they are causally related to geology, extra-terrestrial bombardment, or ... fascinatingly, the biology of the planet its self, these effectively wiped out their "Gaias" in lieu of new Gaias. As far as Gaia its self... upon deeper reflection ... I find it just as equatable to processes of ecological-balance. There are direct interdependent requirements of life within any given domain, and that domain then has indirect but still important dependencies upon adjacent ecology(s). Gaia really just a whimsical way of artfully describing the same thing in a poetic refrain of awe and wonder. But it's no different than ecology processes of various life components working unwittingly in support of one another.

https://phys.org/news/2019-11-arctic-ocean-ice-free-year.html

https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/14/europe/veneto-council-climate-change-floods-trnd-intl-scli/index.html

No .. I don't think that's cynical at all. I think that's a fair observation. Truth is, there is a reason these early cold snaps are becoming more common year to year. And, guess what? It's more than merely plausible. It has to do with the Pacific thermal ridge/bulge, combined with a permanent geographical circumstance that relates to the orientation of the N/American continent with respect to the west-to-east prevailing winds. Both cause ..or favor, NW flow in western Canada without the help of one another, as a rest/base-line tendency. The rest state of the Perennial North American Pattern features a mountain bulge, a flat ridge, the axis of which is collocated roughly with the Rockies cordillera ( Canada to Mexico).. Immediately down wind of this mean ridge there is a flattening out of the flow that is arguable a coupled trough. That is the geographically induced circulation mode. In present era of Pacific thermal surplus - particularly as we near the autumn and entry times to the cold season - that bulge combines with the ever present geographically induced ridge; superimposition over one another sort of "synergistically" enhances NW flows over western North America. That constructive wave interference than lends to tapping cold earlier and delivering it south toward N/A middle latitudes. As far as Gaia, that was more for science-fiction? A thought experiment. Muse out loud if you will. Though it's an intriguing premise for a book, don't you think? You know what it really hearkens to? I hearkens to the crashing airliner narrative, about how the moment of the accident is actually the end result of a series of events set into motion ... sometimes years in advance as forensics eventually piece together. It's just that with so many moving parts in the machinery of this planets biosphere and all the dependencies and delicate bandwidths of adaptation that need to remain stable, it gets to be so complex that its easier to just refer to it as Gaia. But, the geographic layout of our planetary interface with the prevailing N.H.wind ... causing slightly cooler variance over N/A as far as the GW we experience here, was like the plain wreck... That part of it formulated 10,000,000 years ago. Or if you really want to get outre with it, maybe Gaia set all this up back then.

Ten hours. Super massive stars that begin fusing Hydrogen into Helium during their early lives, will burn so hot and furiously through their Hydrogen mass that within just a few million years they will begin fusing the Helium they have created, into heavier elements. This goes onward, each cycle faster than the predecessor, because the energy produced by fusion of these increasingly heavier elements adds more and more energy to the nucleosynthesis process, thus speeding it up. Once the star begins fusing Silicon into Iron ...that's the end of the line. BOOM. That fusion into Iron at the core is the end of the line because it takes more energy than is provisionally in place left over from the previous nucleosynthesis processes to fuse Iron into heavier elements such Gold ..etc. The star no longer is producing additional energy thus begins to lose thermal pressure, and can no longer withstand its own incredible gravity. The core collapses... When that collapsing mass hits the neutron density being created by compressing protons and electrons together ( the creating of a neutron star associated with ~ 8 solar mass stars or > ), it rebounds in a horrific explosion called a Super Nova. Here is the fascinating part. Because the star is so large, that process of core implosion to 'Nova, takes time - on the order of ten hours. In that time, the outside observer sees the star as burning normally. It's really quite literally as though the outside spherical envelope of the star its self, is a dead man walking. A corpse unaware... that it's heart beat has ceased, and has no idea about the the shock wave about to annihilate from below. When I read articles like this: https://www.cnn.com/2019/11/13/europe/insect-apocalypse-report-scn/index.html I am driven to the above primer; where humanity, and perhaps a lot of other species to go along with, may be living and breathing, and carrying on in their existence as though quite metaphoric with that above theme, having no idea ( or in our case, vaguely..). There are so many moving parts to the climate change catastrophe, and it is absolutely a catastrophe. So few are aware, or could even begin to conceptualize the immense inter dependencies of the entire biological system. We read about polar bear habitats. Sea level rises.. Droughts and heat waves. And we think we got it? As commoners, we don't even know the 1% of it. As scholars and scientists, we don't know the half. But as we burn and carry on in our ways and means, in a lot of ways it is as though we are symbolically existing through our final, proverbial ten hours.

Oh ...geez, I missed the statement in the beginning - yeah, I guess what's relevant to them.

https://phys.org/news/2019-11-arctic-ice-refuge.html

I think it's interesting that these excerpts have an over-arching theme of monetary this and that, and how it will effect commerce ... And guess what? Money means nothing in nature. Nor, to climate change's ability to dwindle species survivability - yes, that includes the conceit of humanity, a fragility that will be exposed. Is this narrative - money vibe some manipulation of the audience? I mean, considering... it is an audience that cannot connect with anything unless they are impacted in their wallets, it's an understandable device. It's the only way to get them to pay attention and take this shit seriously.

I'm less than entirely familiar with the specifics of Australian climatology ... other than exposure to outback heat and dry cinema portrayed through science channel this, or old movie that.. I think it interesting that they are only in their spring .. which concomitantly means, the higher hotter sun and air potential looms, and it seems at a very simple level of consideration that this cannot project very favorably that this is happening this early.

I expanded on that... I do that often... write something and then hammer it with afterthoughts -sorry

Not to be snarky but I don't agree that population is the problem in among its self. This may seem totally obvious because, well .. .it is, but, it's what the population does that is the problem - not the population. There is an important distinction. I'm sure those involved in any such debate are aware.. And perhaps there is a 'built in' assumption, one that is cynical where they're musing back and forth within the predilection that humanity is incapable of a non-profligate exploitation way of existence. I could buy that ... I almost like that - almost. Greed first! Evidence certainly seems to suggest so. To that, I have friends directly keyed into the circuit of Boston area university scientists, and they all agree ... the problem is more clearly a sociological one, more so than a geo-physical one. Change attitudes... and the latter takes care of its self. It's still just the population doing it. If there were 8 billion people on this planet all living green - no problem. That can change? But, people need to get burned to believe in the fire. That's the biggest problem with this ... the specter of climate change moves at a pace below the threshold of human senses. People can't feel, see, taste or touch or hear it; though we are seeing that beginning to change with striking video. Still, it's not in people's back yards enough. 'Soon as people feel the nausea, they'll stop sipping the cool-aide that it's okay to profligate - hell, begin to realize that the way we've done this thing since the Industrial Revolution is even profligate in the first place. Generations have now lived and died, tucked inside the IR years since that great Human evolutionary turn begin to usurp Human societies... and their culture knows no other way.