Typhoon Tip
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Everything posted by Typhoon Tip
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Looking 78 hours ... this is more potent. How much so? mm 10 .. 15% but that's likely all that's needed to bring moderate more convincingly so NE PA to S of Boston - speculating
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that's part of it .. (leave it at that )
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F! Will beat me by 10 sec on that one -
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Interesting...looks like the GFS is attempting merger, too
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Yeah ... I didn't know that about the GFS/NAM specifically with that site, but I do use it first thing in the morning over a cup of coffee for the Euro and Canadian. I like a coarse/cursory eval to either confirm, deny or piss me off before I dig deeper later in the morning (when I'm supposed to be doing my actual day job...) haha.
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GFS has 5 to 10 kts more wind speed in the 500 mb wind flags amid a potential field with more compression along along the western flank of the SW trough at 30 hours. Ha! beat that
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Not to impugn you guys ( seriously ) but that seems kind of questionable as auto practice? Tell me that's not what's happening there. We can't just dump a bunch of raw output mass into a blender - doesn't that utterly defeat the very real possibility that the nuanced solution is more correct? I'd argue that latter aspect is pretty prevalent in these fast flows scenarios. Also whence it's become more apparent that telecon correlators seem to skew relative to results
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cool - thanks for the heads up. I don't keep up with that stuff because I arrogantly don't think I need it so up to the date. haha. -then I'm all pissed off when my hot dogs are cooking and I can't take a bite yet
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Okay ... I see. The ICON is doing what the Euro is attempting to do. Both appear to initiate a coastal response ( to varying specific success) out of the first wave, which is in the process of being merged with the 2nd - playing rapid catch up. The 2nd wave sort of quasi captures where the first wave initially triggered the coastal response, and then takes over governing the evolution of the event thereafter.
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HAHA ... add that to the list -
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no wonder no one reads my posts. i'm always an hour late
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Are you getting your products from a paid service other than tropical tits or pivotal shits? I'm always hung on like ...hr 72 on these sites while you guys are clanking goblets of ale over the model run
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I'd be okay with that. I mean ... ( you know what I mean here -) this is our first attempt at getting this winter to do jack shit that looks at all like winter. I'm willing to (holistic sensibility) allow this be an appetizer -shot across bow- type of event. You know, there's a signal around the 15th -any takers? LOL
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NCEP should create a crowd control model called the 'OHMYGODISH' Run it several iterations over -whatever it takes - with perturbed physics and/or diabolically tweaking initialization grid values, anything to get the model to always illustrate the maximum dystopian potential. -that way ... if when we say, "It looks OHMYGODISH..." we have a direct frame of reference to pin our hopes to
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I'm kind of hoping it degenerates but not entirely, and we get like a light to moderate burst, followed by the jet going by smearing out 30 straight ours of blue-gray tinted light through windows with mood snowing trickling down past.
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Ha... looks like Brian and Will and I all keyed on the same aspect at the same time re the NAM Which was done for fun. at least I hope ...
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^ an aspect that is like radiation trying to get through lead helmet on top of Mount Tolland, no doubt
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HAHA... Just said that exact same thing in my head. It's like we're relaying destructive interference backward in the flow.
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man - this is annoying. It seems I keep seeing model renditions of this POS that match my discussion points, while they're not actually picking one of them and f'ing sticking with it. I said this morning that this NAM extrapolation -type look would be possible. I gave it some 20 or 30% chance and then here we are, a model goes ahead and maps that out. But this has happened to all of us this week with this thing. It's all shot gun solutions still
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okay I see it - yeah that solution may (if not likely) just the NAM being the NAM. But it's putting all the emphasis on the trailing S/W. In fact, extrapolating that 84 hour frame would argue that's enough mechanical power there to trigger some sort of NJ model low response out of that thing alone. But as far as the lead, it's all but completely damping it out of existence due to wave space/destructive interference
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tropical tidbits is not a very good site for timely updating I've noticed -
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gosh .. it almost seems it'd be better if the whole jet stream lifted N because with that high up there and that running over top would probably ignite a general region of isentropic lift snows - generate an event out of generic overrunning.
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mm, not sure I'm seeing 'more amped' ...only out to hr 30 though
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it may be the first by virtue of running first, but picking the first to gather the physical sounding
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Two little things to remember - this dips S (total manifold) before lifting up. Climo on that is typically a wetter system. Not sure how that aspect plays into this, but that seems like there's room there to speculate. the other aspect is that S system tracks tend to inch N when climbing up a flow slope like this scenario appears to be.
