Typhoon Tip

Noticed this too .. .the slowing. That, and some of these shorter term meso runs hammering the CCB ... these come off as having 2nd S/W taking back control -again- after the 24 hour hiatus. I thought maybe while it was relaying through that narrow ridge spine aligned along the WC ...might have been causing some issues with the runs - speculation - sort of losing it for awhile. It seems something's giving back to that - it may still be less than that eye-popper solutions 2 days ago, but partially back.

Fantastic crunchy ground temp crash in Boston Sunday afternoon

I may be in the running for max

I mean the problem I have with this is ... how the fuck are we cutting anything into that cosmic scale barrier jet. Jesus - Just getting the hemisphere to that point means we're exerting against being able to do that, ... way before hand. That kind of hemispheric super structure doesn't just happen tomorrow. I just wonder if some of these operational runs don't start favoring eastward adjusting. If we apply some attenuation as a perfunctory model error/requirement, that tends to cut down on the left turn from that source to. It just seems (almost frustrating) like the operational runs must be deliberately perturbed to attempt the physically impossible. ( that's a kidding but you but you get it )

ha! haven't we gotten stoned enough for one afternoon? ..start losing weight and getting constipated if we keep it up -

I've asked this half joking but will again ... has there ever been an NFL game delayed because of lightning in heavy snow?

I wanna clear up a hotdog issue I have with ptype dorkology - in order, it goes: rain --> cold rain --> 'cat paws' --> white rain --> slush --> wet snow --> snow -or- rain --> cold rain --> 'cat paws' --> IP ....I only bring it up because it annoys me for all the hours I spent as a child glaring at a windshield with biting rain hitting my neck ... trying to discern how much snow was getting to the ground. I did not spend those hours in vein! haha

I hate the NAO by the way... It's the bastard index of the bunch. It really only exists because it's the residue of the Pacific R-wave decay after its been tormented by continental storm traffic and topographic bouncing. It's stochastic because that stuff, and just because it is complex, but complexity that is through a virtual continental boundary of chaos. It's like it almost can't be modeled unless this QC stuff really comes on line - that's a fascinating 'nother discussion. Really - if quantum computing comes on line, those kind of 'fuzzy logic' aspects of this business get a lot more clear ... real fast. - digress

Just adding to Will's post above ... ...the GEFs seem to be trying to lean more GEPy on this 12z mean, as already by D9 we see a more western limb -NAO expression .. .even merging with the eastern extension of the EPO domain. Heh, you know, I've always wondered if there should be a mid Canada ( >60 N) teleconnector domain defined

Re the 10th: the last 4 or so cycles kept carving the trough bottom SE in the operational GFS. I haven't been looking at ens due to personal energy budget issues and being sick of it all for a little while... As of the 12z rendition this morning ... that's already moving a wind max and associated PV field under L.I. The surface position with a fanned out gunk warm sector failure look is purely a function of failing surface high pressure and colder BL resistance mechanics - there's no resistance, no Miller B The hemisphere just didn't time well with that trough. If there was more CAD and high up there, drilling any trough bottom and wind max under one's latitude would likely result in a different reality than what you are seeing in that model's cinema. I still think we are heading in the right direction for the 13-16th. If one has to be told not to hold onto any one model solution from this range than they really should change engagements to save the quality of their lives... The pro is that we have a shit ton of cold air across southern Canada by then, with spill over episodes. Troughs moving by NW will likely tend to tilt their veritical vortex structures and send that "SWFLow" type system result. But it's not abundantly clear troughs will all do that in that time span. Con, they seem to be trying to do so overnight because the -NAO blocking was repositioned ( think Charlie Brown) just enough to allow a storm track to curl NW earlier on. That could go the other way. If the NAO does take the ball away then we suffer the cold roll-out into rain alternation deal, though. I'm not thinking that happens at this time.

it's onshore now

heh.. I gather the sardonic humor but just the same - It's a flat wave that possibly becomes a rapid deepener upon exit, with a CCB genesis transporting fresh ( not rotted) maritime polar air back west. That synoptic circumstance sort of puts your area ( #MeToo btw - ) in the running for winner. It's like you're in the top 3 seeds heading into a playoff. Let's just hope it's not like the President's Trophy curse in the NHL lol

well they're all getting ( or should be getting) a real dose of what's arriving off the Pacific - the mechanics are finally actually just over land as of the 12z initialization. How they individually handle the ingest ( physically ) is a discussion with the modelers at NCEP ... actually "Environment Canada" in this case

I originally thought the 4-6th was more probability favored, too. It was due to the proximity of the last +PNA. It was weakening in the projections... but still numerically valid. In fact, it was/is valid (at the time) through the 10th, which is why I included the 6-8th - it was a matter of 'leaning'. But because the 4-6th was still more embedded under the meatier side of +PNA curve ... and on and so on. ...It's always a conductor's migraine to try to 'cinema' these probabilities. It's predicated on the telecon projects also being right for one. But also, there's room to wiggle within a signal and end up with a result that can be less than ideally correlated ( looking ). This is definitely a hemisphere that would favor that latter aspect happening, with idiosyncrasies abounding.

Clearly sampling difference out west are translating to these morphology ... The question of NAM's NW bias then re-enters the discussion.

I really suspect the 2nd S/W in contention has been temporarily lost while relaying from the GOA source as it nears the WC (as we are typing .../overnight) and is trying to pass through the NVA physics of the ridge axis along the immediate WC. I notice the runs began to de-emphasize the 2nd wave overtaking/controlling when that relay began yesterday - It may come back/re-emerge more coherently again during the runs today. That CCB-ing aspect is/was really an acceleration caused by a phasing - with less thereof, that is [perhaps] why temporarily less proficient -

So I feel like we’re getting some data shadowing on that second S/W as it approaches the West Coast where there is a ridge axis. Models may have trouble resolving that feature until it passes through the NVA, until tomorrow afternoon or night.

That legend means nothing … it’s just a bunch of colors

Do you know that the "2nd S/W" in discussion is still out over the Pacific ocean as of the 12z initialization ? yes sir - That ovoid piece there has to rise up over that shallow ridge axis along the coast, then careens like a bottle rocket all the way around the underside of that S/Wern quasi closed trough while it's opening up and smearing out down stream ... Lot of moving parts and pieces being handled over the next 30 hours. I thought this was on-board as of this morning but when I checked I was flat wrong about that assumption. That's it there. Folks should go trace that themselves...

Heavies QPF happens during/because of greatest intensification rate - let's do this!

Then to have an inversion cap all wind from getting down next week? sign me up -

It's easy to see why the NAM did this... It held onto the lead S/W by fractional amounts, and it's causing/pulling the low to escape east before the capture deal ...it does but that hesitation is crucial there. It's basically re-introducing destructive interference. It's counter intuitive but more is actually less in S/W tussle. It the lead needs to attenuate so the 2nd can capture ... however we wanna say it.

Well .. not trying to be a wise ass buuut, nothing's "locked" in a 72 hours in a 'needle thread' pattern. subtle movements in the last 18 hours can move a rain snow line N or S by 40 mi, can short term bust a forecast. That said, the air mass on the front side of this thing is cold. The DPs even out over the low GOM waters are < 25 F, and its cold in the vertical. I think that fights back as we get into the 36 hour window and we start seeing models collapse to a chillier boundary layer. I think the correction vector on the thermal is on the cold side for this one, but out of deference to the model... the short answer to your question has to be no - not locked in.

Ha ha No but I mean literally it ... the analysis effort is draining after awhile. Hell, even NWS gives their employees 16 hours a day to do other shit...

I thought the 12z was dubiously warm in the lower levels to be honest. But it gets exhausting chasing the perfect scenario with plausible excuse after excuse every 6 hours lol. Just letting these model runs come in at this point.