Typhoon Tip

yeah that Thursday thing's actually in the way of the latter one.

GEPS/GEFS were also weaker by some ...

It's been there since the time period in question first emerged through the outer 'coherency horizon' Like 15 days out lol. This particular 12z cycle is actually less than previous, but at this range? -that's allowed. I'm not dubious of the signal, per se. I am however leery about background seasonal change. There have been plenty of significant storms with frigid cold and wind hauling talcum powder ...all the way to Easter. If we are going to be lucidly rational about our chances here, however ...for every week that goes by climatology lowers those odds. But, I feel ( probably not a shared vibe, okay - ) like our climate has shifted shorter. Springs are earlier. It's like March 1 2024 is March 20th 1997. I was thinking that last week, and then some of these individual runs kind of started looking like April 1 back whence. I was like, 'no shit' ...Even if only hinted it's supporting my point. Anyway, that's conjecture. I mentioned a couple days ago that this was a candidate for holding off on a thread until perhaps 5 days. I don't hate the telecon spread for this. I just don't like the climate smear/seasonality shifting shit, combined with the sun modulating b-c fields

We spend all this time obsessing over the Arctic when in so far as climate change ramifications is a concern... it's the other one that's the biggest problem. https://phys.org/news/2024-03-scientists-fret-antarctic-sea-ice.html But... I don't really think a lot of the Arctic focus in here is really about climate change per se. More about preserving chances for cold and snow in people's winters, and having connected that to the state of north pole. Call me a 'motivational cynic' -

Poke and run on the hornet's nest here but that's GEPs mean is ...well, pretty 'mean' looking considering this is 200+ hours..

Zip continuity beyond D7 ... but, no model is really required to in that range anyway. Both aspects in that sentence all but completely require not even being allowed to post that shit LOL

The operational run is a cold outlier at 850 mb on the evening of the 10th. Despite the growing coherence in the mean/distribution products, the ens mean is quite a bit warmer than this above in the antecedence to that 10/11th system. One might think it would it trend colder as we near, or else the baroclinicity comes into question and the whole thing ends up an elevated gyre. Warned this in the past.... the big cyclone extended range systems of spring sometimes deteriorate in the runs as they near, because the b-c gradients get homogenized by the time of the year. But, maybe the oper is onto something.

should be able to label a model run for what it is, though. People tempering or not tempering expectations? I gave up on that years ago ... In fact, it is unlikely that would ever work in a returning usership that is in fact "suffering" ( whether they know it or not -) from an addiction complex that requires they actually get their expectations elevated. So fuggit ... describe the portrait for what it is.

Understatement wrt to that particular GGEM run... woof

I'm thinking a first time ever in history, CC attributed ... 55" ambient result at pan-dimensional scales in the triangulum NYC-RUT-BVY ... everyone gets a totally "normal" season snow total ha

they all do. I mean they gotta when there's a closed contoured mean in the vicinity from 10 days away.

yeah... admittedly, that struck me too as a possible lapse in foresight in selecting a handle that isolates the "ticular" suffix for reader processing ... LOL It's like going with Richard Head or perhaps the indelible lovable Michael Hunt

It does have some consistency - relative to being 10 or 11 days out+ - in the ensemble means. As Steve mentioned it also does fit the teleconnection outlook for that period of time ( 8th -15th) reasonably well. It could be better in that latter regards, ideally so ... but the +delta(PNA) may be more important there than whether it ultimately goes positive. I wouldn't be starting threads on that, from this range, without a fuller complement of clad mass-field suggestion, though. Just me.. It's a candidate for a day 5er until that happens. Vitals: a +d(PNA) that changes mode from -2 or -3 to just shy of 0 SD. Again, not ideal. But, it does suggest that the non-linear negative interference factor is decreasing ( which ends up being a positive for cyclogen ) -NAO that in itself is uniquely guilty in the past of being a Charlie Brown index. But this time, the integrated curve looks less "spiked" in nature. Combining that with a climate inference, negative NAO after eastern mid lat continent warm episodes in early to mid spring, these are confidence builders. However, it should be noted that the -NAO as seen in the ensembles, is an eastern limb variant to start ... some vague suggestion for retrograde at high latitudes farther out in time. The east bias in the layout offers room for eastern Lakes/ST L. seaway transits. What all that means is that this is a needle thread. What's new. I'm sure there is 0 patience to hear the words 'needle' and 'thread' in the same sentence after ... 8 years of it, but it is what it is. One aspect is a little interesting is the operational Euro's 'bowling ball' rendition. That's a bit different, and can also fit March climo

Yeah...it's above 6,000 ...that's like going to Venus to gawk over how hot it is. of course it's hot there. of course elevations get a ton of snow.

Getting this repeating impression that something's pulled N in the continent ... exposing what had been a suppressed El Nino S/stream all along. We just couldn't see it. This entire region E of 100 W has been getting punctured and perforated with all this lower latitude vorticity shrapnel ...turning the corner and generating these weak Miller A relfections that are completely f'ing up what really could have been 70s Mon-Wed. Now ... it's probably cold in Boston with a Harbo fist pushing all the way to Alb the way that's been going.

I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the 10th/11th idea... I realize that may be subjectively difficult. With the antecedent winter eroding on patience and/or the 'Stockholm Syndrome' thing ... it makes it little more difficult to believe, and also inclines people to just give into a warm extinction of winter. However, there are background reasons aplenty to watch that period. In step-back principle, any time there is a multi-sourced, multi run cycle continuity (all ens systems) suggesting a Pac wave inject up underneath a -d(NAO) teleconnector modality ... uh. I mean that's more fun arousing in DJF, granted ... but that smacks pretty loudly (to me) as a 'bowling event' framework. Well ... we're entering the bowling season. Sometimes when the shoe fits - Also, the PNA is not actually going positive - I read that a couple times ... It's relaxing from a substantial nadir, perhaps even neutralizing ... just clarifying. However, that may be enough to warrant 'period of interest'. The PNA domain is very large. Moving it from -3 SD to 0 SD is a delta of +3, which in any scenario ...moving the entire PNA mass-field by 3 whole standard deviations is noteworthy. Being so large ... the western limb over the Pacific may sImply be offsetting the N/A domain expression (vice-versa). Regarding the -NAO ... It should be noted that a period of -NAO/ blocking following a interlude of early thaw/warm anomaly has a pretty significant historical precedence. Historical climate methods are taking punches; with the history, itself, become less akin to presence and going forward, that questions the logic of the method. Cross the bridge ...

And attenuation is complete … go figure.

uh uh uh uhhhht

Nope... only pain will convince in this at this point.

heh... yeah, i've never seen that model actually be right so -

Then another one at the end of the month ... just as he's being wheeled out of 3 electro-shock sessions and an IV drip of Thorazine, too.

Ya ever get the distinct and undeniable impression that the weather and models are targeting Scott's sanity for destruction ? I mean ...no sooner has he fully adopted the doctrine of 2023-2024 hate, the CFS model has 30" of aggregated cement and pebbles for SNE at mid month from two strong coastals. Maybe we can get the metaphysics of the thing to just dump it on his neighborhood - haha

hm .. tend to agree here

That sucker went deep at 500 mb. That pattern during the week preceding did bear some resemblance to what's been modeled for/during the first couple of weeks of this March. 4 days prior to the 17th, 1973

Yeah ...the telecon spread's are not exactly warm with no variation in sight. primer: warm patterns in early spring tend to synoptically self-destruct. They get kicked out of the continent and end up pooling in the NW-N Atlantic. That forces the -NAO. Heh, if you are a responsible-minded warm enthusiast with a modicum of longer vision, you don't want for these early "winter heat waves" Anyway, seeing the teleconnectors in fact dropping the NAO negative post the 9th has that historical element to back it. But it is not just the -NAO. I mean, the -NAO can be biased over the eastern limb for example. When that happens it's more of a factor for W/NW Europe. Very recently, the ensemble means have retrograding positive anomalies (500 mb hgts) from Greenland through the D. Straight - it's a long way out but that is very tentatively in support of a more westward blocking. Meanwhile, the PNA flat lines - the trend of which extrapolates to it becoming positive. At that point ...warmth's rug is likely pulled. So we'll see. This could all wholesale change. March is one of the more unstable months of the year due to seasonal change. The t-spreads discussed above actually had backed off yesterday, but have come back since. So those broadly canvased indicators are showing some instability. oy