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Typhoon Tip

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Everything posted by Typhoon Tip

  1. Typhoon Tip
    East wind initially backs when pressure falls … T crash
  2. Typhoon Tip
    It's like how the CCB comes in like a fist into coastal towns for 3 hours as this thing's trying to exit on that run. I wouldn't be surprised if this thing gets better on the next cycle(s). As the GFS capitulates to the Euro ideas...eventually it'll it'll bomb a run - not guaranteeing of course... Just that it's been tripping over it's own limitations and now teeters with freedom
  3. Typhoon Tip
    I got wacked by that a week after thanks giving. Is it a scratchy maddening tickling prickle sensation that sends you into a gag reflex followed be convulsive non-productive vascular headache inducing coughing ? It fades away ... very slowly, after that first 4 or so days of misery with nose and burning eyes to go along with that. Some 4 weeks later I still have distancing tendencies to that irritation.
  4. Typhoon Tip
    See reply to Volcanic Winter - same applies.... These are not reasons to raise the goblets here - I'm just outlining that it's not impossible from what I am seeing that this could modulate in favor of clipping your area as we close in on this thing in future runs. So we'll see... I will say that the 90-96 hour run blend translates an intense mid level wind max about 1.5 deg lat/lon S of NYC-Cape Cod. Climo typically results frontogenic (elevated instability) related meso banding through N NJ -CT/RI and Mass. There may be problems with overcoming other synoptic indicators/metrics but there's time. Low probability return for now but there is cast up ability
  5. Typhoon Tip
    thanks! I'm located in a wonderful location here in interior eastern SNE - particularly for this event ( as is handling and extrapolating thus far... ). I don't have any room to complain, frankly -
  6. Typhoon Tip
    Mm.. so long as we're still (apparently) in a bit of flux as to whence/how much we phase these S/W components that allows some gray area in the probabilities down to central NJ. Pushing it perhaps ...but non-zero. You won't have cold very far away, and if future guidance modulates/interacts these aspect sooner and you implode the column ( cannot be outright ruled out yet) than you could flash over for a time -type of thing... Also, there may be mood by street lamp light activity after the fact in the cooling BLs below the inevitable inversion
  7. Typhoon Tip
    Pretty sure this is the initial step toward capitulation to the Euro, which has been more proficient in that (incrementally) for several cycles. It appears it's capturing more here. Tell you what, if that gets more proficient on the next runs we got a NJ model bomb ( not winking at you per se -) One upshot of GFS volatility is that model has no compunctions over going nuts if given the okay to do so. (tongue in cheek)
  8. Typhoon Tip
    I think this is the initial step toward capitulation to the Euro. It appears it's capturing more. Tell you what, if that gets more proficient on the next run we got an NJ model bomb ( not winking at you per se -)
  9. Typhoon Tip
    Sure... there are two short waves really in contention for the Jan 7 event. The first is being influenced by the 2nd, further upstream. The 2nd one labeled "2" ...overtakes the lead ( complex physical interaction involving wave mechanics) and eventually subsumes the wave space, which you can see below ... If you go to any of the sites that carry these free graphics and animate the 72 thru 108 hour Euro solution from 12z, you can get a sense of how this happens in fluidity. But ...this 102 hour chart above has captured the surface low that the original "1" triggered, and gives it a goose ( so to speak...) intensifying it further.
  10. Typhoon Tip
    Haven't been in this thread - Hey did you notice the double S/W capture scenario going on? The Euro really hits that idea hard, and sends this through a NJ model rapid deepener scenario - toward 985 mb passing SE of the Cape and clear attempt at primitive CCB/clip into eastern southern New England. Fascinating
  11. Typhoon Tip
    know what would would happen... the snow would end around 22z on that ICON solution but then as it gets dark and the cooling BL kicks in we'll start squeezing out teeny flake street lamp snow. And that'll extend up in the column to the inevitable inversion that's left behind ... so it'll last into the evening mood
  12. Typhoon Tip
    Yeah...that backside trend to extend the pp west with filling in QPF is perhaps a nod to that capture business. I'd pay attention that trend if the ICON is your goto ...can't imagine a mind or scenario where that's actually the case but sufficed it is to say -
  13. Typhoon Tip
    Just using 'pragmatic imagination' here: the system for the 10th is higher risk for several meteorological impact reasons - perhaps they don't see the need to expend resources for a pedestrian risk in the foreground
  14. Typhoon Tip
    massive massive scaled DVM chimney implicated over the Siberia to Alaskan sector. I'm wondering if we convert an already robust -EPO signal into rare cross polar flow structure.
  15. Typhoon Tip
    actually ... interpolation may begin to "sense" of that now. But your right - the 00z is when it starts directly nosing over California
  16. Typhoon Tip
    Looks like the Euro's superior grid spacing may be tapping into the local baroclinic field. The 925mb through 850 mb thermal gradients are rather packed from the mid Jersey coast up toward the Cape; that's an indication of the rather upright frontal structure extending skywards - above/over top where the pressure bends back NW. IF/when the mid level wind max noses over that, the inflow (synoptic scale) that it induces below will then be forced in ascent at a very proficient manner - enhancing the rate of QPF generation being one result. But also, the enhanced UVM lowers the surface pressure more. That's all likely why we are beneath 990 mb.
  17. Typhoon Tip
    It's not physically impossible - if that's what you mean. But yeah, also being on more than one model (cross-guidance) lends confidence. It's a delicate precision wave space interaction - impressive that we are getting that "agreement" ( however tacit notwithstanding) with such a fragile arrangment at D4 .. 4.5
  18. Typhoon Tip
    The continuity between the 00z and 12z solutions out there around 84 -102 hours is pretty damn clad and tight. This is the best interval, to date, wrt this event that's shown more than a modicum of confidence/determinism.
  19. Typhoon Tip
    haha... you're so greedy
  20. Typhoon Tip
    looks like a solid hit on the Euro - moderate but solid.
  21. Typhoon Tip
    yup
  22. Typhoon Tip
    we all have are fetishes. Mine's the FOUS grid. I love it when a big dawg arrives near enough to show up in the FOUS numerics. Seeing a UVM of 30+ units with a .95" melted equiv in the QPF column, whilst a thermal profile of -2/-2/-4 (C) at hour 60 ... while knowing that the storm really maxes at hour 72 makes ... Then waiting for the next model cycle, and when seeing it arrive with not only that .95" but the new 60 is a buck and quarter... Ho man! Load that needle with the good smack - that's like that "Blue Magic" from "American Gangster"
  23. Typhoon Tip
    oh, kidding. I'm like wtf
  24. Typhoon Tip
    Hasn't the GGEM been the most reticent to losing this thing all along? seems that way - but I only see that model at 12z and 00z. Last night's 00z was only S of the 12z yesterday but was still a more potent low response. i dunno
  25. Typhoon Tip
    Yeah, in addition to slight ( but crucially) deeper lead S/W, there's a better S/W ridging rolling out ahead. That should left the axis N in concert with what you're seeing there -
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