Typhoon Tip

Re the 4-6th ... I've always been leaning in favor of this event over the latter 6-8th. The reason is just to do with wave spacing in a higher speed rate pattern. It's tough to get even two middling events just 36 hours apart. When in this forecasting dilemma in the past ... personal experience, the lead tends to win. Having said that...there are examples of that in history (succeeding) Dec 1996 leaps to mind. That double dong I consider to be the same event because we finished up a 4-6" tree clinger, settled off to 30F for still-air sagging tree and powerline retention, with no clearing inbetween. The 2nd came along the following night with 9-15" and thunder snow. It can happen, but the rarity of it - more typically ... the models will start keying in on one or the other and sort of sacrifice the other's wave spacing and/or dynamics ( moisture/instability parameters). I like the 12z GEPs ensemble mean the best just for eye candy. Down near 994 at 132+ hours lead, with a lot of spread pointing to the NY Bite, while there is sufficient cold back loaded over land ...this is a tasty optic. Almost ominous. It's in the upper 20s in the 2-m while this correction vector is pointing toward a strengthening nor-easter. (not a forecast - just a muse for now)

I like the fact that it's positioning over the western limb of the NAO domain. An east biased blocking would allow more room for the dreaded Iowa to western Ontario storm track.. but, when it is west, the "Great Lakes squeezer" low enters the picture. With confluence barrier we turn a -PNA into a winter storm index.

I'd like to see them deeper than 999 mb but like Will said ... it's still close to 9 days out.

Heh I've noticed that many times in the past, too. These guidance et al seem to exhibit a kind of oscillation between amplitude and positioning. Less or more on 12z, and vice versa on 0. I wonder why that is... I used to think it was diurnal load balancing with hemispheric heating on day vs night side but that seems like it should be less evident in winter. I don't know -

I wouldn't trust the op Euro beyond 5 in this pattern. You have a high speed -PNA under a 'tendency' to back drill colder heights into SE Canada from a -NAO that it also agrees will set in, so what does it do? Stalls a planetary trough node over Nebraska and carves heights down to Texas. Given that model's heredity of lagging heights S/W (is it really over that obsession?) ... it's like trusting a con just because they put in their time, but now have been released out into the temptations of society

To reiterate my own position on January stated prior to Xmas, I didn't really have a strong confidence for anything beyond the first 10 days, but at the time ... I was leaning warm. Since then, however, the -AO/-NAO seem to have gathered momentum in the projections. We'll need to be cognizant of that. If yours and other's sentiments re a "switch" were to take place, it's also possible these -AO/-NAO indicators are like a zygote to that pattern in the making? Just a supposition - not a forecast there... I gotta say...if these latter polar sources back off and/or fail exertion, yeah ... I don't have a problem with a mid month warm up, because the Pacific is raging in a AA phased (-pna/+epo) import which correlates to a Chinooky continent.

Yeah I do too, just so these systems have a moisture source. That's not being a wise-ass, really... I just with the fast flow these friggin bottle rocket N/stream S/W enter the Pac N/W continent and exit NE in under 72 hours, they don't have 'time' ( for lack of better word) to operate. Having an ample moisture source inject helps that.

GEFs trended in the z-coordinate depth under LI for the 5th, though. Not a lot, but those several DMs should be construed as a lean toward more amplitude considering other guidance are trying to weight a consensus that way... Simply put, don't give up just because the scalar depiction is a miss. Also, the run to run comparison of the GFS shows more cyclonic orientation to the surface isobaric layout, with at least as others mentioned, more 'snow in air' Maybe it isn't too late in technological evolution to still get a Boxing Day correction... Also, having looked over the general tapestry of this run ... yeah, it's pretty clearly reconstructed around more -NAO backward exertion through the field. Can't recall who mentioned it ...but yeah, this is more likely evincing through the coherency improvement with that 50/50 spv

Not to NARCAN the moment buuuut, the teleconnector correlations during that time rapidly reposition over Iowa for that 11th system. Being D11-13 in the guidance, I don't have any qualms with assuming this run is doing save vestigial GFS tenedencies toward progression bias. We'll see. I'm not trying to ruin your high here, just to maybe establish a (sure to fail -) tether hold on objective con. Having said all that - there is also a -AO/-NAO aspects that are fu'n with me. I mentioned that these other large scale suggestions could in fact cause a polar boundary to fixate along the ORD-Logan type latitude. So ...in fairness, this run could also be responding to these latter index mode forcing suggestions, just the same

I realize your tuggin' winter enthusiast pubes with this statement and it's all fun and all. Just the same, I saw geese in V formation communicating overhead in the midst of that 2017 March Nor'easter, not 10 minutes after there were two lightning flashes and the reporting thunder ... At the time it was S borderline S+ vis in the 1/3 mi range. 31 F I was like, 'whaaaa -' I'm able to recall all that because in the moment it was just too weird - like one of those 'where were you when -' moments. Seeing them fly over, apparently they absolutely couldn't miss their flight so they had to risk it ?

Probably of less use to most but that ICON model was a stem winder with a burst of strong NNE flow in moderate snow for eastern MA, with a blizzard condition likely evolving up in Maine east of the cordillera up that way.

That’s some kind of a freak event in the Plains in that depiction

When did Logan have .2?

Model performance hasn't been stellar the last several weeks really. Lot of false leads that smeared into oblivion. It's not really 'expected' that models perform well with entities that emerge beyond D7 but even relative to that expectation ... this has been a bad month. Having said that, the 1/5 system ... yes I did mention last week that would be 'probably' the higher likeliness. Since then, what you are observing is that poor handling where aspects seem to disappear and re-appear head-game. There's been large scaled indicators that pointed in general to Dec 28 thru Jan 8..10. So we're moving through the period of interesting now with ho-hum model continuity with these particular dates. Short answer yes around 1/5. But 1/7...1/8 is still in play. My hunch is that 1/5 or the latter will become dominant over the next 2 or 3 days of modeling, but not both. There is a slim chance they'll both disappear altogether.

Noticeably more aggressive diving the N/stream out of Ontario though - that's allllmost ominous. The problem (the way I see things...) is that the total trough space, inside of which the N/stream and S/stream are flirting with having integration, is progressive and doing so too fast. They ultimately do phase, but the playground itself has move away from our area before it means much here. This is actually a hemispheric problem, too. Every thing on that chart is bodily moving unusually fast down stream. I'm not sure if this can modulate better ... I mean it's 7 days away. But even 6 hours slower and a slightly fast N/stream plunge is pretty much all that would take to clip the coast from NYC-PWM with the season's first

I agree with this assessment re the MJO. Basically what it boils down to, the forcing needs time in the given phase/correlation space in order for it's momentum to substantively integrate. As an aside, I argue that the propagation fast(slow) rate is also related to whether a given wave space is destructively(constructively) interfering. Why say this: ... perhaps the next time a wave pops out of the N/S region in phase 8 and moves through phase 1 and 2 in less than 5 days, we might say ...gee, that's a red herring signal. I mean, the wave slows down entering phase 4 and takes twice as long to creep around phase 5 - even if doing so at a low amplitude, time kills you. It is integrating a lot more forcing. It's worth it to consider the physical/plausible aspect of that in using MJOs ...which frankly, since all along I haven't been too keen on using MJO to really conduct much because it's ability to correlate is subjected too much to the surrounding 'harmonics' . However, in this case ... the dwindling +PNA toward a -PNA by mid month, with zip EPO responses, that's a pretty decent harmonious assent in favor of constructively interfering. I'm curious how all that interferes with the ENSO - my guess is destructive .. .which is interesting.

mm that's exactly the problem when I was whining above. There doesn't appear to be much large scale mechanism to bring it east. But you're right - these -AO/-NAO coupled aspects "might" offer winter enthusiast salvation.

It's been a specter growing more suspiciously obvious for 10 to 12 years, actually. I'm not saying winter(s) are out of reach - but we happened to be in a competing signals so ... I don't have any qualms about discussing the possibility that we've gone and moved climate to where we are on the plus side marginal scenarios. Could be wrong.. .but the evidence in both modeling tonalities and verification trends are tough to ignore.

None of these fuggin sources were .. jesus - cancel January if these first couple of opportunities fail. It's a wind blown -PNA/Chinook look in the 500 mb with positive hgt N-NE of Hawaii and a broad open trough through the west. Not sure I see how that ends well for the E. And it's not just that spatial version of it, either. The numerical telecons have -PNA/+EPO, which makes it difficult to argue against. The only thing that would save that is the -AO/-NAO. I would say 30 years ago ... not so sure with the climate now. It's just one in many nuanced ways in which these circulation modes are being modulated by CC that I personally cannot ignore any longer. However subtle or gross notwithstanding, it more than merely seems that when in a dilemma of diametric signals ( cold vs hot ) ... hot wins. It's just a matter of by how much of a margin. I'm looking at the 06z GFS and feeling satisfied eating shit (so to speak..). Because yeah, made the call that there should be systems in place around those time intervals last week. Wee... but the jokes on us because, has anyone noticed that the 0 C 850 mb isotherm is always on the NW periphery of system structures? It's never really IN the storm. It's like the storms are oil and cold side is water

My favorite winter promptly ends on Feb 15 followed by 70s and an eery absentia of BDs. Since that’s never happened my favorite winter is still out there… In the meantime … I’ll settle for anything other than this forced stuffing of shit down throat of a winter so far

Environmental Canada used to provide a really awesome product. It was the 2 m 10 day temperature anomaly. That thing was remarkably accurate at depicting cold loading post -EPO bursts or just in general. For some reason they divided the standard deviation in .4s or 4/10. So -3 SD was really -1.2 so a little annoying. Not sure where that went but when they swept their public access/web some 10 years ago, I haven’t been able to find it very readily. I think that would be really useful now considering -

The 2-m temp distribution is necessary there. Yeah. Pretty colors at 500mb over those latitudes can still be quite cold below. …very cold particularly if it’s taking place over a cryosphere - DVM caused ideal low mixed/ high decoupling potential at this time of year … etc I’m not sure what the state of the cryo is up there, just in principle.

I was speaking specifically to the GFS operational… Least that’s what I had in mind lol

I cannot even identify any of the entities that were previously on the charts. It's like something's come along and completely scrambled everything oblivion. Nothing is there that was there two days, absolutely. strange -

the aroma of bargaining psychology in here today is as fragrant as lilac wafts on a warm May day. And the irony is ... winter's not actually dead. It just hasn't yet shown up to the funeral to shock the shit out of everybody.