Typhoon Tip

You want them now... but in terms of OHC and SSTs and all that? The western Pacific climatology makes their season open ended compared to the Atlantic Basin. It does contract to the SW - similar to the Atlantic - but it doesn't really shut down. The other thing - and this is purely John speculation haha ... - the typhoon recurving seems to really be after the mode of the circulation from the Indian Ocean to the Date Line are already transmitting a change around the hemisphere. The typhoon occurs because of that. The circuitry there is that the TC latency inject plume enters the circulation and gives the R-wave signature a boost - typically in the EPO domain and the ridge benefits which then in turn helps the cold loading into N/A. LOL, why ... is there a typhoon recurving? haven't checked

Well, this has triggered me to check. Firstly, I prefer to keep a D9-13 "signal" pretty coarse. It's even less deterministically useful at a range of 9 days (Jesus) just trying to get the deep tropospheric signal to emerge. When signal are still attempting to emerge ... that seems backward in an operational sense. Confidence should improve in the emergence side, first ... then, along the way ..sure, increase evaluation efforts with those details. So yeah - I guess we have different approach. Having said that, the 850 mb thermal layout on the 4th in the EPS is ample cold enough. I realize that is not the BL but the BL temperature and hydrostatic thicknesses mean almost nothing in the midst of the solar min with any sufficiently strong system penetrating this particular layout - I'm just not seeing a warm BL problem given these initial conditions I checked the other ens systems and they're not significantly different. I'm done looking ( for now) for reasons/philosophy of approach I just described above. So, we'll see - Look, your post "timing" was pounced in character, as though going after snow enthusiasts? haha. Lord knows that is a lot of fun. But, I don't really give a fuck if it rains or snows at this range. I care about being right and having insight on periods of interest. Having said that, these critical level thermal field projections (above) centered mid way through the 4th -6th are encouraging considering everything that is substantive from this range.

Yes or no to this ... I'm not personally implicating snow. I'm saying there enhancing indication for a system there. I will add that BL problems is endemic to the majority of D8-13 range 'signals' since 2015 really.

It's always been about Dec 28 - Jan 7ish for me. The fact that we're seeing some "hopes" ( for lack of better word) during said period of time may be more academic, but getting those hopes to overcome destructive physics - It's always an interesting quandary to me how you can 'off-and-on' a storm appeal and then ultimately have it occur(not occur). It means there were back ground physics for both in play - what decides which rules out and which rules in, that is a fascination to me. anyway, yup - wouldn't be surprised if the 4th-6th because to add to your statement .. an aspect of that popularity is that it's been in +trend

Jan 4th - 6th

There is a large abrupt and intense thermal presentation coming from the GFS cluster. In fact, by day 9 there’s already positive anomalies near the ceiling of the chart from the 2 HPA level all the way down in altitude clear to the 70. Too early to tell if that is going to be a downward propagation.

It’s interesting in that day 8 to 13 range how different the flavor of the GEFs are to the EPS. It’ll be interesting to see which side caves.

From what I’m seeing the EPS is your best hope ens mean through Jan 10. The other two aren’t horrible per se but the EPS is in a different implication space - It carries the -EPO and appears to even resurge the block during the first week … and has established the continental loading conveyor. Cold look given time. The operational version wants a more consolidated jet downstream of the EPO which causes the jet to stay west. The behavior of the EPS suggests split flow however as PAC wave space (quite impressive for this range actually) gets injected underneath the Alaskan sector. Meanwhile… running over top the northern branch of the split downstream would probably keep it colder from the Great Lakes to New England compared to the operational version which would have a flat ridge there. I mentioned the way to combat the -EPO warm pulse through the east is to bifurcate the streams - it’s interesting that EPS structures that way but the op goes a less split direction. For winter enthusiast the upshot of these differences is that of the two the EPS is likely to be more accurate beyond day 7. Kind of goes without saying really… I would be surprised if the euro op looked the same on the next run.

Most Decembers between 1979 and the year 2000. Sure … not sure why we’re using a bad December as a metric for the rest of the year based on our climate is all I’m saying

Not a terrible summary of the next 3 weeks.

I’m willing to bet cloud climo is better up there than down here tho. Just anecdotally … most BD butt plugs dont crest the Green/Whites. … ‘Magine if BD strata was undercasting when with the eclipse passed over ? That’d be an interesting optic. But based upon how this winter is gone so far anyway, pretty high confidence we’re gonna have a major winter storm with heavy snow going on all over the path of the ecliptic on April 8 2024 - so long as there’s not been any snow before that day.

Yeah ... a comet impact. Also, so your previous re the MJO phase 5-7... Those are shit phases for us - we want those crapping out. Right now, we are in strong phase 1, which should correlate to a +PNA and well..that's what's going on. There may some pattern lag with these MJO phase spaces too - so there that element of uncertainty. Having said all that... I don't think the MJO's doing jack shit. The analysis recently wrote that the MJO is actually in destructive interference with the pass through the IOD region, and .. blah blah I don't think it's really doing much anyway.

You can see the albeit transient (hopefully...) -EPO warm up attempted over the east in the extended Euro. I mentioned this yesterday, that this +PNA ( that will apparently fail to do jack shit as it comes in and out of mode), may relax into a warm up toward Jan 10. The ridge (if it actually all happens that way) at the tail end of the run may be too flat (as is). Assuming the -EPO does sag hgts west, first ( so yar, there are some assumptions): Warmth will also depend on whether there is confluence over Ontario..etc. But you can see now the ridge over eastern Alaska/NW Terr., with heights plumbed through the Rockies, and at least a flat ridge ejected E. Sorry - I'm not making this stuff up. I mean, will see what the ens look like but ... failing +PNA relaying into a -EPO burst ... yeah, it was/is pattern changing but I guess no where in the words "pattern" and "changing," does the phrase guaranteeing snow actually exist.

Not sure where the "car seat" per se comes from - I never actually spoke that specifically. I don't know anything about car seats - it is what it is. It was only how a parked car on a sun abundant afternoon noticeably warms in the interiors much more so beginning on or close to Feb 10 every year. It was palpable. Some warming on the 5th is abruptly a lot of warming on the 11th. I had noticed that long ago, and every year through the decades it was dependable. 'Oh. Right. It's Feb 11 - that's why it's so hot in here.' Later I learned of the solar max, solar min, and the solar transition periods that shoulder either. They occur roughly 91.5 days in length.. The solar min is November 8th to February 10. The solar transition 1 starts on Feb 10 and runs out to May 10. The solar max kicks in on May 10 and runs out to Aug 8, whence the negative transition goes from then to Nov 8. If you think about it, first days of any season as they are currently defined seem more so arbitrary when considering these physical facts about the celestial mechanics of Earth and Sun orbital relationship. "Solar Winter" is half over now... I just thought it interesting that the suns ability to warm enclosures seemed to coincide so closely with that official onset of the transition 1 period, Feb 10. I've also noticed that snow banks get eaten back even on cold days, much more so around that time. This is all of course latitude dependent. At 42.5N these period are closer to evenly temporally distributed but S or N, these periods are longer or shorter respective of season. What's really at stake is that crossing the Feb 10 date, tugs chode hairs of those basking in the snow climate narratives and statistics of mid Feb. LIke ... here we are supposed to be enjoying our winter punch and this guy comes along and interferes with our narrative? Must seem like deliberate turd mixing - how dare. LOL Years and years ago it became abundantly clear to me that early performing winters, those that coincide more closely with the thick part to solar min period, were a lot more for aspects like retention and breaking records and stuff. That's why I like my winters "front loaded" - rare as that may be. These days, with seasonal lag and shoulder smearing everything's all fucked up anyway so it's becoming more moot.

Lol... awesome. 6 days until January, and already the January thread has canceled January. Man, the addiction crisis in here may have reached a historic fever.

There may be a problem in qualifying the outlook as "vastly" this or that. It's more encouraging for winter enthusiasts. Not speaking to you directly here ... but it may be useful to not 'color' expectations with adjectives. ha

I agree ... more or less. It comes down to the old concept over how statistics belie the truth ... Ever heard, 'there are lies, there are damn lies, then there are statistics' ? That's actually a loaded sentiment, because it can be applied for a lot of different contexts. But the gist is that real-time experience and statistics don't always share the same space.

funny you mentioned it that way. I've been thinking about the same arithmetic whenever I hear explanation rooted in 'law of averages' LOA doesn't logically make sense because (most likely) people are not moving the average in their heads - linear comparison. The trend-line is not linear but seems like it must be curving down. But ... others will be quick to point out that snow has gone up since whenever. I don't know what those numbers are per month. Maybe its gone up because single storm events snow 40" inches ... but then you go 3 years with only 2" in January, you get to still end up on the plus side. yay. It's like a deal with the devil. haha.

It's occurred to me over the last 2 to 2.5 days worth of guidance. Right around the time this "signal" started to morph into a possible colder profile, was just about when the all but dependable de-amplification thing began. It's also yet another telecon mode shift that either fails, or is a weakly correlated version of a restoring system. I guess I'm sort of wondering if changes in the models over the last 10 years are introducing/emerging new error spectra ... Just because there's nothing else to discuss on a slow morning of an off week ... the early depictions of this thing were different and warmer. We definitely are still warm at 850 relative to normals and all that, but the Ontario low with another wcb stripe idea have all disappeared in lieu of a what appears to be a paltry attempt at closing a surface low ... "gunk low" basically at this point. We've basically traded a can't snow because of a cutter to can't snow for any kind of other reason as yet to be manufactured LOL. Seems that way. frustrations and fun. We're depending on the ICON/GGEM/ 06Z GFS to put wet aggies in the air or something ... anything, to break up this monotony. You're right, though ... about Asia. You know, this reminds of that tortured autumn and early winter of 2006. Probably bears less analog ( or none...) notwithstanding, the end result of having a lot of early cold over there and nothing/very little over here; and it seems to be reproducing. 2014 did the same thing... again, perhaps for different reasons, the end result was the same. Let's hope we're nearing a flip this time, too.

Right ... and so now we're trying to go back the other way.

Yeah, that Canadian solution is suspect. Buuut not impossible, either. Hey, when we're terribly strung out in this detox fugue of shakes and apoplexy from L-dopamine shock by recent model shit cinema ( LOL ) ...we'll take even the cut product off the shady dealer. No but that "Ontario Dive" S/W scenario begin about 1.5 days ago as a sneaky tend to start calving the S/W back southwest in a steadily more obtrusive N/stream up there. The 00z GGEM last night finally look a little more interesting, where this one actually does the phase... etc. Again, we are still dealing with some neggie interference between this (new) GGEM idea, and that lead ... which evacuates the dynamics away and leaves that pig instability and jet machinery associated with the followup phase starved for fuel. Regardless of what model, and model run, ...this lead piece of shit thing has really been f-ing this thing up all along and still is... The GFS has the S/W up N, but its not attempting the integration until it's over the outer Maritime region. Heh... give it a couple more model runs - can't hurt.

Better hope Carolina and Arizona win a couple down the stretch 'cause otherwise, that 'miracle' just cost the Patriots the 2nd round draft pick. Which the need to seriously unf* the damage of that last 10 years of Belicheckian personnel incompetence -

Ha, right - I was thinking it's January business. It sort of overlaps though. For me and what I've been looking over/philosophy of things this starts around Dec 28th and terminates in a smear of probability out around Jan 7 ... After that, we may or may not reload. I'm actually thinking that this new -1.5 SD EPO dive with the PNA going back negative for 5 to 7 days toward the 10th of January, might actually be a cold dump into the west. We would unfortunately ( likely ) turn mild IF IF IF we don't split the flow while that is happening. If we do split ...then we're pouring cold out across southern Canada ( i.e., within reach) while the southern aspect of the split might make things interesting - I mean ...not a novel take on things. Split flows in winters can be both unremarkable, or extraordinary. If we don't split and the -EPO/-PNA underpins than we load cold west and warm up for time. But that's all relatively new and one thing that's been also true ( when not troubling) is the teleconnectors, themselves, have been less than stable projectors - it's actually an aspect that began about 7 years ago. interesting

I don't have a problem with any of this. I don't typically use/reliant upon the Euro sources but the GEFs have been flagging significant intrusive warm plumes in the 2 and 5 hpa ( I tend to use the temperatures and Wave 1 anomalies). They haven't been exactly coherent in suggesting warm bursts precede correlated down welling through the systemic PV, but my experience in the past is that there's these modeled false entries into an event before the real one takes place - sort of thing... I looked this morning and out around 300+ hours, there is now a ceiling thermal event through the entire depth, from 5 hpa all the way down to 70 hpa. This method of observing warm intrusion in the 2 .. 5 hpa levels, followed by emergence successively down through 30 .. 50 .. 70 hpa ( those are pressure-altitude coordinates ), has proved useful in early detection in the past. By the way .. this is coming from the American model. It's way up at the 2 hpa. The 5 hpa also is highly anomalously displaced. I've never seen these temperature wells displaced so S-E as to collocate over the Iberian Peninsula ... What ever causing this, it is suggesting that there is no PV over the regions N of 66.5N at these levels by 300+ hours. At a minimum ... this intuitively precedes and/or indicates active "breaking down" of PV. Which probably infers an era of extensive blocking nodes around the 50 to 70 N lower Ferral latitudes. Checking the distant ( 300+ hour range) height distribution, at the 100 hpa (which tickles the top of the tropopause) the PV has fractured into 3 distinct SPV nodes. These are all compelling arguments for SSW and at lest indirectly argue that the very important behavioral correlation of downward propagating warm plume(s) is under way. Without this itl/bold statement, these warm bursts have almost N/S correlation to the Arctic Oscillation. I also want to caution that the AO is forecast to switch to negative mode well prior to the SSW time-lagged correlation. This is sometimes true of other years in history whence SSW that were downward propagating successfully ... took place in an already erstwhile/ongoing negative AO biased winter. This would make it somewhat of a challenge trying to parse out exactly what is what in a the total manifold of forcing. cross that bridge..

oh yeah, and .... Merry Christmas