Typhoon Tip

I put the odds at > 50% the EPS mean looks comparable to the last cycle ...with secondary probability > 50 % that it actually looks even better.

Given the deep layer mechanics going on at the time ( as is and of course subject to change from this range...blah blah blah-blah blah) that 156 hour panel is 3-5"/hr thundersnow between ORH and ASH. It could rain .75" inches and they'd still clock a foot after the change over... then, another 2 to 3" over the 6 hour mortality of the event

I know - funny

Nah, my take on the GEFs is that y'all missin the boat on the most important aspects ...which in fact add to the general probability make-up of this thing. Let's first get this into higher confidence before we divvy out cosmic dildo inches to whom ? That defense posturing psycho-babble gets tiring - it's okay in funny/small/sardonic doses but do we have to wade through people's mental sludge for 6 f'um days? This mean is in fact 2 to perhaps 4 mb deeper per interval comparing to the 06z/prior spread. It also has less spread indicated, with a more of an even dispersal of 980 or lower members. The mean is parked over the climate dot for bigger events between NYC and PWM 12z this next Tuesday... at which time the 850 mb temperature is S of PVD. That's just about as far as we need to focus for now.

Compromising two solutions that are likely wrong/'iffy' at best to begin with is tantamount to 'two wrongs not making a right' no?

Not sure where this is coming from ? well there's not a lot of conceptual awareness of synoptic Meteorology ( haha, you think -) going on there. Obviously just knee-jerk defensive psychobabble it's all good. It's a human engagement. There's obviously a chance this could go NW and become a bigger ordeal up that way... sure. It's non-zero. I agree re either direction. But the 'oh god oh no ' comes off as little too codependent on model cinema. jeez

Started a thread for what I feel is more a lack-luster operational performance issue that is not really been representative of the immense potential of this period of time. I kept it at medium confidence - mainly in deference to aspects like exactly where this evolves an impact is still highly negotiable. I think there's higher likelihood that cyclogen emerges and provided plenty of contextual arguments to support that. But you know... a medium to major winter cyclone could move too far SE ... or evolve too late... there's all that to iron out.

Hey folks.. Similar to priors this season ... we are only just medium confidence for this event coverage ( I mean that relative to outlook standards at D5-7), perhaps owning to this still being 6.5+ days away, notwithstanding. The simple worded version: the techniques/recognition/experience tells me we have crossed the threshold into high enough confidence to elevate the 13th for focused awareness. Part of the significance of which is that it has an unusually high ceiling for maximization due to being footed by leading planetary -scaled index modalities. That sort of brings a smoldering urgency to do so earlier - but please don't mistake that as aggrandizing or 'plugging' for the drama. Some techniques: 1 the numerical teleonnector/graphical projection from all three, EPS/GGEM/GEFS ensemble sources. A robust pattern acceleration toward +PNA actually begins this week, but takes off and approaches +2 standard deviations between the 15th and 17th. The places the 11th -15th as the 'inflection' along that index's modulation - while these indexes are changing tends to be ( but not always ) the sweet spot for a corrective event. If the PNA were to rise and statically remain elevated, you can actually get into more stable regimes with more smaller sub-index scaled dosing ( haha). Anyway, the ceiling elevation comes from the notion that erstwhile depictions for this by the operational guidance have, to date, been deep lows but situated too far SE in their illustrations, or even 'cyclone smears' ... both circumstantially evolved because the models are not creating enough meridian flow orientation. That would be fine in and of itself, but that is not really very well supported by #2 below 2 this is key ... the actual pattern layout by the operational runs has not represented the canonical +PNA --> +PNAP flow orientation, at least not very well. Overnight ... that subtly but perhaps crucially changed/improved. More coherently now,...the operational versions have an arced over top 'dump in' delivery look out of the high latitude NE Pacific and NW Territories. It might be that we are on the verge of the modeling organizing a more proficient phasing environment. Remains to be seen. The previous versions were stretching the flow in the W-E velocity direction, particularly true over the last several cycles of the GFS ... showing a S/stream wave space out running the N/stream. However, the 06z GFS shows how just a little more total R-wave curved structure transmitting from upstream, immediate results in a bombogenesis scenario - whether this guidance cycle turns holy or not, the take away is the demo of, if not nod toward, correcting the erstwhile W-E bias in the modeled flow behavior toward one that is favored by the telecon spread. So with that, ...here's some charts. Ens of 00Z Euro and 06z GEFs - note: the spread region is along the NW arc, within which there are lows that are unsually deep relative to the 998. That excessive amount of deviation from the mean is indicative of the modeling physics at least being aware that the untapped potential/thus higher ceiling is in there. This could come into shorter range as a major, notwithstanding. And for the eye-candy that I feel is more than mere sweet.. This has some physical plausibility that is connected to the above discussion. I get the feeling there's been some "falsely lack-luster" performance on this, ... perhaps thus far. But we'll see on that. I'll use what is obviously already been seen ( no doubt!) by most. Again, I emphasize, medium confidence over all, but ... the upside higher ceiling is very real based on what I believe is a strong argument. It is just possible that a major cyclone or even "bomb" manifests and just misses like a dystopian horror story known as 1987 ( don't get me started on that f'n storm )

I'm late on looking at stuff by Jebus what an improvement on the 12z EPS mean. There's got to be some violent bombs in there - I mean whats with the sub-960 cluster between Boston Light and PSM? What it is is that the N/stream got to be phasing on some of those runs.

What's with all the yellow snow -

first it gets warm, then it gets cold. boom

heh lemme get this straight. 5 different models produced 5 entirely different solutions for the 13-15th sounds 'bout right for D7, huh

Ha, I think you mean "lack" there of -

Agreed… Models are just having trouble identifying a specific feature yet 13th still in play but yeah it’s all mutable

I think the problem is money. Humanity ( ... by this we mean 'developed world' that has 'bought' into the economics as a social fabric ) has found enough stability within the Industrial Revolution/bubble, that it is able to assign economic value to everything. Literally... not just figuratively, just about every breath that is taken is somehow being incentivized around profit. We create this thing that should be a natural wonder ( really! ) called the internet - when has that happened in Earth's history. A means for 8 billion nodes of [ paradoxically dimming ...] intellect to plug into what's is almost analogical to a "planetary brain" It may not be the trillions of dendritic connections (yet), when comparing to a biological brain, but wait that out. We'll see what happens when the "genius" of AI - eh hm - comes to some future nexus with Quantum Computing ... digress. The Internet's usefulness has been reducing. At this point along it's tech evolution, you cannot even formulate simple inquiries because if "time is money" in a system that is entirely incentivizing surrounding the goal of acquiring it ... you have to wade through minutes in countless sponsored agenda ...sending you down a consuming rabbit hole - and their clever about it all, too. They make you think you're getting your question answered, ...until you end up in a "concept cul-de-sac," the only way out of ... you almost have to re-install the fucking OS of your access terminal. It's like a bate and switch system lock.. Oh, you can directly access the answer to your question with money, buuut the membership requires you give them all this contact info so that you can become mercilessly harangued until you buy more information... and on and on... Ask a simple question. It's gross and it's a detriment to progress... and all that possible feed back that can be so advantaged at a species' evolutionary level is tragically redirected someplace else for the acquisition of wealth instead. The internet tainting by economics is just one example. News media et al, regardless of medium of delivery ... incentivizes surrounding profit motifs. Reality itself seems to be unavailable without paying for it. This is why no one trusts anything - and it all started with the stability of the "Industrial Bubble" ..inside of which economics can flourish without any other goal needed There's an extinction event going on, alright.. it's in virtuosity.

I have a funny feeling ...when all is said and done and this GW/CC "slow moving apocalypse" thing has finally gone on long enough to send our world into a Mad Maxian dystopia of scant populations of barbarianism ( "civility" only happens in the provisional reality -) ... the reality along the path to that destination will have managed to never place one of those "GW storms" 10 MI S of ACK Island. LOL

I saw - hahaha. I think you beat me to it because as usual I couldn't end a sentence in time. LOL same page ... Even if some of that is tinted humor, there's always some truth to what's funny.

I guess in simple terms, if it is happening like 1::30 ... all the time, world over, it is not happening 1::500 then, right? duh. Too much reliance on past climate. People seem to intellectualize the changing climate, but then fail to allow the climate to change. Who and how says " 1::500" - what's that based upon, the past climate? ( enter buzzer sound). it's fascinating ...

OH, it'll get "attributed" - that smacks as a PWAT anomaly relative to thermal profile thing, big time .. and the possibility of that happening without that "goosing" is probably a 1::500? Which would be fine, but that doesn't intuitively fit the odds when considering that we are getting these weird localized snow results ... and heat results, and wind results... rain to 'canes ... pick a metric, too frequently world over to fit under the 1 in a 500 probability curve.

And... with the +d(PNA) being in progress while this system ejects eastward across the continent, there some suggestion for correction vectoring there. Frankly, the operational runs have not been very representative up to this point. They're routinely on the feeble side of +PNA expression - comparing that which has been and remains an impressive teleconnection. I've been waiting for that the other shoe to fall on that - **however** it also occurs to me that the flow is attempting to split near the Aleutians; that changes the map a little. With the -EPO block getting going, it is instantiating a high polar delivery/jet moving NW-SE over western/central Canada, while the southern branch runs underneath and careens California with a River. None of this precludes our getting winter weather - in fact, ...there's more arguments in favor of that happening. The 850 mb anomaly distribution in a 'super ens mean' has negative spread from the NP-Lakes-NE from ~ 11th to the end of the run ... the canonical result down stream of said -EPO. That's a pretty definitive cold north, over warm south type of loading across 40 N and should be considered precarious and higher volatility. But as far as the 13th, it's sort of being stranded because that type of +PNA .. not really ideal for getting a large positive interference. Can't just apply a +PNA and assume in this sense... It can change though - so far it's been an idiosyncratically limiting. Beyond that though... we either waste said volatility, or new features emerge given time.

Yeah but we have to think of those differences from the perspective of deltas ( changes ) along processing.The N/stream may be attempting to initiate a phased solution - just that the mean at that time of the run is a snapshot en route to a destination. It's a possibility that cannot be rule out at this range/circumstances.

Pretty solid move in the GEFs, as well... Notice the deep solutions are within the spread cluster over the NW arc... That's prooobaby an suggestion that there are more proficiently phased solutions; an N/stream grab favors that region of the cyclone envelope.

Continuity is very poor ... this GFS run bears only semblance to prior solutons. It's back to somewhat more convincing +PNA, but also is stretching the field in the W-E coordinate. That situation with that thing on the 13th ( relative to this run...) nary misses probably an otherwise massive event. N/Stream tries to subsume, but the S/Stream is outpacing due to that W--> E bias above.... Watching future guidance. The teleconnectors continue to flag impressive +PNA modality ...despite these distracting spatial layouts that try to go against. By the way, I realize some of you don't have faith in this system, but as far as I can tell, this is your index driven event. It's poorly handled up to this point, which likely wouldn't help its case. And, it is possible a middling system results...all that, but this particular system - I would guess - has the greatest up-side than any this year to date. So we'll see what the future guidance does. I will say though that the longevity of the +PNA comes into question, regardless.

guys... ".3 to maybe 4 days of +PNA that matches typology, then it all morphs into something so exotically perturbed that it's not really certain +PNA has much identity there." does not = no changes

oh, it's still changing - it's a matter of to what. these guidances sources are saying the previous notion of a strong and stout +PNA is in trouble - those being the GEFs system and the GEPs. it is unclear what takes place "if" the stouter version goes to squat