Typhoon Tip

I bet it's January 17. that one's suspect as the Meg date

Yeah. But I was thinking more big cahoona. Ha, I suspect there's been a little critter biting at the ankles of every date. I wonder .. hm, what hapless p.o.s. flogged date out of the entire NDJFM five months owns the singular distinction as the lowest storm frequency out of all of them.

I don't think that's a climate repeater date, Dec 30 I can't recall very specifically but I don't think there's been very many siggy winter events in that run up to January 1. The mention of the last week of Jan '93 got me wondering if that was rare back whence. I mean it's been now 30 years since 1993 and have we had a sig system on 28-29-30?

I'm probably just a jaded lover of winter modeling affairs here but for some reason, just a 990 mb low as a result, underneath all that, is somehow more encouraging at this point ...

Not by much... but more crucial, the wind balanced g-wind velocities are 35 kts or < That latter aspect speaks to the 'compressibility' of the flow - which may be a sloppy way to describe whether the gradient speeds up as the S/W approaches, to a state that is too fast and shearing/absorption begins to rob from the total wave mechanics. It was always the combination of those two metrics: 582 and balanced geostrophic wind at or < 32 kts. But we can play with that. I mean, if the heights are 586 ( say ) but the gap between the isopleths is large and velocities are light, than as the S/W/intermediate wave space trough approaches the SE in general ... less in the way of absorption ensues. Contrasting, if the heights are 576 but the wind is already up around 50 kts, than that's negative too.

This looks El Nino-esque too me. Nice rollin' S/stream, loaded with wave mechanics, and a vestigial N/stream across E/SE Canada.

Meanwhile ... https://phys.org/news/2023-12-coal-earth-hottest-year.html

Or how 'bout integrating the two: 'He died doing what he loved most as a hotdog cart peddler'

Thing is... based purely upon on the numerical projections of the telecon, there's also a 'signal' between the 23rd and Xmas like Will or whom ever that was that mentioned a coupled days ago. Am aware of that buuut, there's nothing really in the pipe line/upstream that would take advantage/serve to be amplified in that time range. There is, however fleeting and unreliably so ..., just such a signal in the deep la-la range. Maybe something will manifest nearing Xmas, but for the time being, it's like a gutted +PNA. The other aspect is the speed of the overall flow ...I'm wondering if it's causing the +PNAP expression to be progressive ( too much). You end up with +PNA and PNAP in the means, more so than the look on any daily chart because of that.

You'll probably meet your demise for exposure to some invasive deadly fungal strain due to CC drilling these 80 F DP summers above 40 N more and more frequently. Insufficient drying episodes - like last year ... And upon the epitaph on your tomb stone will wistfully read, "He died doing what he loved"

Depends on what we mean by 'long range' ? Technically, if perhaps 'realistically' ... long range should be anything beyond D6, but for the purposes of discussion ... Dec 28th -31st is a legit period of interest, one that wouldn't necessarily be prescribed in warmth. The problem with that may also be subjective in that, some ( shocking to hear - ) don't care for winter, but just want exciting weather to follow in general. The period of interest "might" offer both.

If my evil plot to have it be weaker overall transpire, it may come east for that physical reason. I mean a stronger/overly zealous system in the models would tend to end up more west. just sayn'

Can you imagine if you were like an X-Men, and your weird mutation super power was that you could be like this urban legend cousin of "Storm" - kind of like the fading seen in "Empire Strikes Back" when fearing the loss of the "Luke," Yoda says to "Obi Wan" 's ghost, "No ... there is another." Only where she created lightning and thunder, you are actually capable of conjuring whole synoptic constructs? ho man... If anyone found out. You'd be so heavily sought after in every dimension of society, from the sophisticated 'monitor state' capacity of the Pentagon, to the stalker hired by the mystery unknown agency, Kevin, no place would be safe on Earth. You'd have to be constantly on the move ... Something like "Jason Bourne," always 2-steps ahead or else they'd catch you. Hook up to all these EEG leads trying to figure out how to extract your ability from your brain and recreate it in an AI weather doom's day weapon. That's kind of a cool outre sci-fi idea actually. Or if you were smart about it... you could just make weather predictions capable of moving the Markets. Creating culture modalities...etc... But you'd have to cleverly fail ( deliberately) once in a while. Because you cannot risk the expose' tipping the NSA as to your ability, or you'd become the above sort of target ...etc.

Yes... Also, the short duration but very intense cold snap last February. That was also a phenomenon that relayed into shorter terms and did not back down. Interesting

As an after thought on that ... we seem to have moved into an era of model tech where this correcting less amplified is all but dependable. How much so from situation to situation is perhaps where the majority of the variability really lies - not if it will. I began to notice this about 5 years ago, around the time all the fab three went through significant version overhauls. I don't know if that is by design, or if it is just an emergent property of the state of the art. No way to know as just a standard consumer. The pragmatic angle on that is one of protecting civility by "maybe" describing the worst a given situation is capable of becoming. However, in some sense ... the 'cry wolf' phenomenon. I suspect that D3.5 is a critical 'conservation of momentum' window - if the amplitude in question relays through that period and maintains its panache on D3 ... perhaps the top 10 .. 30% is more dependable.

I'm okay with this at this point. Not that you asked, but my previous contention was if or when N/stream continued to get stronger, it would trade spaces - that ends up more dominant over the lead Miller A. But that's gone the other way overnight. A consensus for less N/stream potency ( I know that's exactly what everyone wanted!), and the contention goes away. -which I still suspect reality is some 10 or even 20% less with the Miller A, btw. Similar to the last waste of time. In fact, you can see some shallowing of the PP in the guidance as the mid range prepares its relay into the shorter terms. Wouldn't surprise me if it even degenerated into an open wave/miasma of WAA rains... sure heavy, but moving right along. Next winter potential is Dec 28-31st from what I'm looking at.

Miller A should start coming back to earth soon. Still need to watch the N/stream despite GFS … It could be right but enough other guidance sources drilling power over the coast. As/should the Miller A correct weaker it ‘transmits’ into a more robust 2nd event.

I've seen that site before. It's a nice quick expose' without a bunch of busy data entry that's not very well described ..making the user feel a popsicle headache coming on. I wish they'd do some other index spaces.

So that's a pretty significant consensus shift by the operational versions across the board, for multi contoured closing low. Something is missing there ... there should be an explosive response as that much q-v forcing combined with height falls intersect the coast - it's really almost on textbook spec. I suspect it is the lead Miller A evacuating the dynamics away and so we're looking at a starved scenario. Otherwise there'd likely be a much more significant response with that thing. There may in fact yet be one, too - it's a bit of wild notion but I'd really watch that. It could be a weird scenario that just happens to be particularly difficult to model. The Miller A may be too deep; a weaker passage would leave a marginal dynamic b-c axis more intact - things end up different. The last Miller A turned out to be almost 15 mb weaker than the 4 day consensus, too. Predicated on the assumption that N/stream is real.

Fwiw, even the JMA has now got a deep 500 mb solution meandering through mid week. It's a coarse model which I have no familiarization with in terms of accuracy and all that goop, but it has the idea of marginal thickness with instability

Looks to me like Dec 28-31 is the next hot seat. Doesn't mean we can't materialize something sooner. I mean the flow being fast and all... it's almost like fractals are getting involved. ha.

GGEM too... just not as protracted. It actually brings a CCB burst exiting on this solution - It's all obviously subject to change with these ongoing continuity issues. Next period of interest is Dec 28 -31st

Fwiw, the Euro's like 1.5 days of grits and zr in between periods of light snow between at 120 and 156 hours.

Something tells me one of those 3 scenarios ends up more dominant while the other two end up just being vestigially there - like what verifies looks like it almost did either. Not all 3. Of the 3, I put the Euro STS at lower likeliness - could be wrong, sure. I suggest the WCB rain ball with some wind ( perhaps more so than this last thing) is highest probability. Flip a coin on the follow -up thing. But, I will add .... "IF" somehow the N/stream gets more powerful and digs to Hades that will wave interfere with the Miller A and we might start seeing something new evolve altogether. This is happening < D5 on guidance. The Euro's last 3 solutions demonstrating usually poor continuity.