Typhoon Tip

Another near miss epicocity on the the 23rd/24th in the GFS

Unfortunately ... it's become a mise en science in here where it is almost impossible to push an idea like that and have people even read it at this point. hahaha

Can you imagine if was 70 F every day in winter except for precisely two days. On on Jan 15 and one on Feb 15, each having 40" of snow fall. ...how do we manufacture our impressions ? lol

'Whoa is us' humor aside - I still see a narrow window where the telecon spread's in support of something. The system early next week is that period of time. It's led by a subtle depression in the EPO projection. The problem is timing ( ironically, 'Wiz was just mentioning that ). That cold plume that mooshes SE from N of the Great Lakes as the Miller A is leaving the area ( i.e., just too late) in fact has it's source-origin off the EPO load. Not sure if we can speed that up. Or, slow down the Miller A transit enough. But all that, and a PNA attempting to flip positive ( not massively so - ) do provide a setting, so at least having a system over the mid latitudes/eastern continent isn't a terrible fit. I've already discussed this - it's really more about it all still being there, but this is detailing what needs to improve for any of that to have a chance (based upon my Monday morning QBing)

Can't say I disagree with that bold sentiment/recollection ... You may not recall, but I have opined at times over the last decade (really) that it seems more and more so, we disrupt cryo chances when we do not have a direct feed of cold while it is happening. It's seems (anecdotally) we can't be as reliant on those 'rotted polar air masses' but still on the slightly cooler side of marginal characteristic. That envelope of circumstances have been fleeting and getting rarer. I noticed that in 2015, all those snowy events in that historic February where happening when it was tooth-ache cold. What your expressing there might be related to the same observation?

No argument from me re your implicit argument of "uncertainty, so it could go either way'" I think of this year as modeling curve-ball year - as in, the model's them selves offering curve balls/tickery. I don't suspect we will have very many periods when the models are exceptionally well behaved - and by that mean I mean ... sniffing out a pattern early and demonstrating at least a modicum stability, such that modeling individual events within that construct have an actual chance of occurring. - it's been abysmal so far, and has been over the last several years. Imho, it's related to fast flow saturation but that's another headache.

I'm contributing to some of the melancholy today ... but I also mean it for commiseration creativity and fun.

...or like a 'drive by snowball'

OT for general purposes: There should not be as much of an expectation for model consistency for D6-8. That really begins around D4.5. It may extend to 5.5 in well behaved very stable back ground pattern scaffolding ( to which ...this is not one of those time). It may also shrink down to 3.5 days.

Oh, I see. Mm, maybe. The 06z snuck in an intermediate stream phase attempt. It's causing the surface evolution of that system early next week to elongate. The elongation is less likely - that type of morphology just seldom occurs. What's more likely is that the leading Miller A impulse becomes less defined in future runs ...perhaps degenerating into an open WAA swath running ahead up the coast. Then said phase arrives and a more important event evolves. So... it's not implausible. But like a form of Stockholm Syndrome, it becomes increasingly more difficult to see positive outcomes as having any possibility at all.

06z GFS centered on 12z DEC 19 - any gullible takers ?

I know. ... I think I've entered a state of hopelessness, where any reason to challenge that is auto trashed no matter how valid. u-guh-ly

I wouldn't be shocked. Not at all, actually. 4 out of the last 8 years experienced unusual warm blasts in February, regardless of any longer termed planetary index modes in place at the time. Combining that with on-going state of 'you-know-what' - that's pretty damning. For those with an objective sensibility in the matters, that is. Sorry if this latter statement sounds like a poke at gas-lighting, but truth of the matter is, these events occurred, and some were striking. Two of which approached 80 fuckum F. I'm just old school enough to see that as appalling. I remember a small handful of times growing up ...where a 'Feb thaw' might have mid 50s or even 60 and Crocuses poked out along the south sides of foundations. Not bud bombing 70s. These cannot be explained merely by favorability keyed into combined index idiosyncrasies alone, when it's been occurring in a spectrum of them whether they correlated to warmth or not. It is because of this logic that I'm not really ready to rule it out - not considering the world from Orbit. We'll see. Yeah, I'm not actually contrarian to what you are saying. I mean sure, we could get 3 days in February ( yet again ...) and toss +25s in the bucket, but if there were 10 other days that were -7, you end up closer to normal, too. I'm just trying to encourage folk to add in these 'synergistic heat' events because they have been proving to be a non-avoidable circumstance, not just at home but all over the world.

I realize the nostalgia, the "Currier&Ives" affect, seems to validate Decembers for a lot of folks. I wish I had better news for you this morning - I really do. I grew up in Michigan until 14 years of age. I recall white scenery nearing Xmas as a child more frequently than my experiences since. Overall deep wintry appeal in about 1/2 of the Decembers back whence. The other half ... my impressions fade as the years go on into midlife decades ... but I want to recall them as rarely being actually warm. In the absence of white or ice they were brown barren scapes, but the air still smelled of winter. It seems ever since my family relocated to southern New England back in '83, my impression through 2002 or 2004 (say) was 1/3 of the 20 years worked out for the better. So comparing western Michigan to this region, with my anecdotal accounting they win because ... when the synoptic charts and satellites confirm, open clear skies pervade the Great Lakes, gelid NW winds may still provide LE streamers - saves their spirit. The sky may look that way, too; whenever one of those virga-shrouded nimbus, back lit by the sun, plumes over head they liken to an apparition. Since 2004 though it seems that 1/3 of the years era became a 1/5th era... Now is like a 1/6th or even 1/8th ( per 10 years). Just spit-ballin' ... Maybe this impression can be adjusted some in how we define the qualifications for a white Christmas. 'Is there snow on the grounds at all,' being the barest requirement - but that gets tinted brown in the mind if there's a 48 F rain going on with corn snow left in patches. Not sure that should be fair or not. I mean there'd be some subjectivity to the 'sentimentality rules', no doubt. If it snowed nicely 5 days prior, and it was just 40 with light rain setting the canvas behind spiked 'nog occasions, the pack may settle but still intact, that's fair enough I suppose. Anyway, the last time I remember a less molested Currier&Ives Christmas was 2017. We received 7 or so inches Xmas eve, and awoke to that blue-gray misty dawn light ... mood vestiges still fluttering passed the sills. 6 years ago.

Yeah not sure why this isn’t absorbing but the MJO doesn’t spearhead regional temperature distribution. It enhances, indirectly, through positive wave interference. When the hemisphere is in negative interference the MJO correlation empirically breaks down.

Gee might also be related to the whole earth burst warm since the NIÑA extinguished? maybe a little.

Yeah...I'd say partial. The MJO isn't causing it. I'd take a look at the ballooning +WPO if I were people, but that's just me. The western Pacific circulation modes abruptly changed signs and it's started suppressing the entire region - changing the eddy forcing in a way that interferes negatively. That's why the 7 phase is hitting the proverbial wall/stalling. Some 7 days back it wasn't doing that. Blame Asia. If the WPO goes the other way, the wave emerges out of 7 and then positive interference commences and we're in business. I'm more willing to question whether the WPO and the eventual dial forcing toward the NP/EPO region is correctable or not. It is rather new, and you're right - the general hemisphere post D9's has been unusually stochastic.

Except when it happens ... right - I think people just want the given year to be one of those times - just a guess. That's all - ...Now, if they piss in the punch because it's not happening, ignore it. They grouse, and then it's only two fold just as annoying when we grouse about the grousers. Who cares.

None of that's going to verify that way ( obviously - we're having fun commiserating in snark!) buuut, the surface resolution accompanying that is no where near as mild as the intent of that post

Crazy negative NAO like ridge in the oper GFS though. Doesn't appear to help our cause but it is pressing the ceiling of the charts. wow. Approaching 600 dm in mid/late Dec? o kay

Yeah...I suppose being 200+ hours this thing oughta be watched. It's not mere noise in an errant operational run there. This thing has heredity going back days of runs - granted with the usual inconsistencies to be expected, the essence has persisted. Earlier I spoke of the +WPO/+EPO unfortunate motif that's recently evolved... however, the +PNA during the period between D6 -10 has also been there all along. The modality of which does send some correction signal/H.A. Obviously, this social media ilk of folk don't care too much for powerful WARM Miller A cyclones getting captured by the N/stream, only enough to slow it down while being too late to save Christmas nostalgia - understood... But should the synopsis over SE Canada morph in the right direction that profile could easily change

"those forecast" in deference to the above are a mean of all the ensemble members. They literally take the average of all the ensemble members. Each member has slightly differing physical equations, but they are not 'guess work'? I'm not sure precisely what you mean by "empirically derived equations" but ... the physical equations built into each do not produce impossible solutions. They wouldn't be of much use if that were the case. Each focuses in a specific aspect of atmospheric physics. There's probably documentation on each member's "genetics" ( if you will). Ho man - can you imagine the Asperger spectrum required to read that? Like Member 6 uses some experimental convective sequencing - now ... go and match all those days whence ever those were valid, and if those valid days match the circumstance at hand... weeee. Popsicle headache. Meanwhile member 7 ... some other variant, and on and so on. This stuff actually matters, because the thing about cloud creation (efficiency/proficiency: That releases latent heat during the pseudo adiabatic machinery of the storm, which if done by X physics may or may not be more correct than if done so by way X', or Y or whatever. The operational version's just employ what's worked the best in the past, through objective comparison with reality through experimentation. I may be butchering some of this but in principle that's the gist. Having said all that, the individual ensemble physical implementations don't change ( unless a wholesale new version is rolled out). They're just process out into the future based on whatever is given them. Which is the initialization provided by sounding/satellite

The following is a mash-up of climatology with personal anecdotal ( so tfwiw ) but pre-cold frontal: this system strikes me as not very much above mediocrity for W-N when considering the usual wind/mixing potential. The SE coastal plain/ Blue Hill, Cape Ann and up somewhere along coastal Maine - it'll depend on vertical mixing. I haven't delved into the soundings because I'm not getting paid and frankly the situation is uninteresting otherwise. But if you live in those area, you may hear it over the eaves, or even experience blinking or terminating lights - but comparing history? Nah. I've seen more vivid synoptic tapestry fail. I'm not sure this is an October 2017 (?) whenever that was Having said that ... I'd be more concerned along the (probable -) ribbon echo squall as it cyclically bows and wanes it's way E; as separate very brief wind burst concern, that'll be turbulent mixing. That could happen inland. What makes this system different than a straight up climate cold front, the kind that displaces windy mist/showery WCB that happens every so-often in Novie and Decs (sometimes January's too), is that there is a rapid developing Miller A along the boundary. That does introduce a bit of an unknown over the climate picture of standard warm wet wind end abruptly in squall ordeal at this time of year. There's a weird counter intuitive aspect - the Miller A deepening as it approaches actually offset the PGF in the other direction - or can. Depends on the d(p). This may lower the wind scouring inland during the WCB.

Do you think the +WPO/+EPO, beyond D10 .. ., is of the higher confidence, so high in fact that there is no realistic chance that things may break the other direction ??

Unfortunately ( well ... not for you but for the winter enthusiasts), the numerical teleconnection spread shuts down cold loading into North America, ~ after the 20th. This is also in conflict with the erstwhile consensus for wintry turn at the end of the month, interestingly. I've been keeping track ...about 3 or 4 days ago, the WPO projection flipped sign. As of last night, all the way up to +2SD. And then out around the 20th or so, the EPO goes positive mode. There is a lag correlation between the two, where preferentially ... the EPO will eventually modulate in favor of the WPO's sign - given time. So the EPO rising isn't a surprise considering - What all this means is, that giant Chinook generator pattern is not a terrible fit for the strengthening +WPO/+EPO. None of this hugely confident. Even relative to climo/modeling climo that is so. We've been observing wholesale hemispheric modulations that are unusual - considering the mass of the whole thing? Definitely either an artifact of modeling (somehow) or something weird is happening... where pattern identity become mere simulacrums that disperse like farts in the wind, and we're looking at something else entirely about ever 3 days. So I'm not completely sold that the above Pacific scaffolding is going to become history.