Typhoon Tip

I also noticed a tendency for these 'uncertainty nowadays compared to back whence' type model critique themes to emerge whenever the models go from a fun solution to a piece of shit, too - LOL

It's interesting to see the entire ensemble suite of the EPS be so much more coherently intense around 90 hours compared to the GEFs. I mean, there's a lot of 975 mb pressure plots and the GEFs are like 1002

Where's George01 ...?!

Just imagine a day when all that technological infrastructure is rendered meaningless by the advent of the 'Weather Actualization Grid' ... something like a HARP starts guiding the atmosphere, such that modeling the way we know it is instantly outmoded. Dystopia -

agreed

My problem with it is the wave spacing. There's definitely some torque robbing going on there between it and ...whatever the 4th ultimately does to make us think things will work out better while it's not lol

You know ... I arrived home from Thanks Giving week travels and there was no sign it had ever snowed - assuming Ayer was in the snowing region. Because I was away in the mid Atlantic ... I have yet to see it actually snowing yet this year. I suppose that it's only a little late for Novie 30 in the broader statistical sense, but It's still kind of amusing for me personally.

Ha... probably more damning than not but I did find one piece of legislature that 'sort of' supports the Euro agenda... The NAVGEM,

I'll also add ... the 108 hr sensible weather differences between the Euro, vs the world, are huge. Should one or the other win along roughly a NW CT to S NH axis, than the other would have clearly busted for D 4.5 Probably reality will manifest somewhere in between all this mess, but it'll be interesting to see if what transpires leans more one way or the other.

It's still an interesting solution - to me - between 102 and 108+ hours, guys. There's a clear ptype gradient happening between between 102 and ~105 hrs, to where Orange Ma is over to moderate S while large aggregated IP bombs are cutting into HFD. and those aspects are spanning a short distance along a collapse E/S. By 108 hours ( again ,.. talking about the Euro solution), flipping to snow at FIT with IP at ORH. The system wanes to probably light snow for most NW of PVD by 114 hours upon exit. It's really just placement of the low. The 12z run yesterday had the surface features moving farther S of the latter 00z run by a couple hundred miles. Should that bump even half way back S on this next run, these aspects above likely will split the difference.

I've referred to these types of systems as 'busted raviolis' in the past. I think I even half commiserated in one of those winter outlook threads that this type of system structure would be a risk. The flow is fast and is pancaking in latitude so wave spacing/management in guidance and to a great deal in reality, ends up in neggie interference. Anyway, I'd give it today's cycles. I don't think data sparseness is nearly as problematic as it was about 12 years ago, a point in time when assimilation techniques appeared to improve. But, the entire wave mechanical mass of everything passing east of 90W, from Sunday thru Tuesday, is still out over the open expanse of the eastern Pac. The other aspect is that the Euro may have the right idea with the lead wave being more dominant, but the inconsistencies with the thermal layout from run to run is unusual for that guidance at this range. Probably means something bad as far as 'wanting' a noel experience ( lol ), but ... the last two days have been on and off with it.

Not familiar with that as spoken here, but ... I have opined in this forum several times over the recent years that it seemed the pattern was placating the GFS biases at time - so yeah ...that's interesting. To wit, we just spent 4 years or whatever in Nina. Even though the Nina was at times having trouble coupling up ..but that's another debate. Anyway, it seems when the flow type is fast/progressive, the GFS does tend to better scoring just based upon my own observations. I don't know if that is really more identifiable in versions. NCEP's been implementing new ones like Fez candies...

Anyway ... I suspect the first wave is the dominant. The only reason I do is because of history; more often than not in these wave contention scenarios the lead wave ends up the one that gets the job done. The 2nd wave 'crowding' along in the flow 'kind of' also fits into the model lensing/'magnification' aspect of too much longer range amplitude correcting. If/when they necessarily back off, that opens up the flow when it corrects and then the lead wave takes over.

It's like a climate snow signal for any given Dec 6 ... Maybe a little above that.

I suspect this is the leader run for a consensus

The wave interference has been negative in the guidance for the 3rd thru the 9th of the month, which includes the 4th thru the 6th ( still imho the better period of interest), all along. The period is there but it may take a nearer term to sort out a dominant wave structure/wave space ... -OR, yes it is also true that the period could come and go as a dispersive failure. That happens too.

And that reductive tendency has actually got a motivation to doom-cast against the hopes and dreams of anything resembling optimism. I've pretty much just come to factor in and figure for a 30% 'not as bad as all that' ness, in order to vet the kernels of objective outlook.

I suspect so... You know, something I've noticed in the past, not 'reliable' per se but, as the noise of the mid range washes out ... sometimes the extended reveals a 'canvas' so to speak. It could be early detection making that layout and as the time nears and the physics get more detectable (objectively..) - that's why the EPO "bursts" ...WPO and NAO for that matter

Agreed, bold. Not sure about the other aspects you're describing - I've kept my observations more orbital. But the former aspects, I covered that in post yesterday. Interesting statements from the MJO desk lend credence to +PNA. At long last ... finally an MJO wave that is actually forecast to move into a constructive interference wave spacing by mid month . I would not be surprised if that was led by a -EPO burst; the projections on that are so far so-so and vague for now

Oh pretty please, with sugar on top?

That's really been all I've concerned over up to this point, getting the pattern orientation into the best fit with the numerical telecon. At some point along the way, that 'fit' should host a more coherent system result, yeah.

People sometimes don't consider the sub-geostrophic wind is different than the isobaric layout enough. It is pointed more across the isobars. If the isobars are oriented west to E, surface drag and restoring requirements (physically) forces the wind to go across the isobars in the lower levels. There are then two factors that will augment that even further: 1 cross-isobaric flow that sets up during rapid cyclogenesis scenarios. It happens when pressure falls in the core faster then the time dependency in the Coriolis force; the immediate restoring flow responds quicker and the air goes straight at the low - barring terrain. 2 ageostrophic flow happens when there is a cold air present N, assisted further if there +PP situated N. That can cause the wind to also exaggerate the sub geostrophic flow.

heh... I just saw that Euro run. That 4th event's colder in the interior push comes to shove with that high placement. The +PP is built in prior to the system arrival, not as or racing. Typical to be too mild in the lower 1300' of the atmosphere from this range when/given that sort of set up. But as we've been collectively intimating ... it may be moot anyway as it's not abundantly clear which wave in that troika ends up dominant. Possibilities range from one in lieu of the others, to all three interfering and nothing gets done... Agreed ... the period is of interest/still -

Remember Dec 1996 with the twins -

GFS trended better at 500 mb but decided to back off some of the Quebec +PP ...so the net result is a slightly warmer solution - still marginal ... and not a grouser solution considering the time range. CMC went more sfc PP up N. Slightly cooler at the surface with more secondary but it's still just +1C on the wrong side of marginal. Again...nothing tormenting from this range. The GEFs as I have seen them are only out 156 hours as of this typing ... interestingly more impressive with western hgts aft of the trough ejection - that's likely to ( or should) cause more amp conserved coming east/ more coherent signal near the ~ D. Marv to BM