Typhoon Tip

This is an important point - folks take these longer planetary indexes at face values - not trying to implicate anyone, per se, but just in the general chorus, this tends to take place. Taking not of the idiosyncrasies ... like a bombastically warm western Pac weighting the values one way or the other, may not directly teleconnect to what's going on with the atmospheric circulation mode over Dead Horse Canada.

It's really about 1.5 C just too warm otherwise that's an 8-10" SW flow event even down here. Almost hearkens to 2007 Dec but not quite the same synoptics.

actually wtf ... that was yesterday's run. ha

Christ ...the GFS trying for another one of those 9 F for a f'um high TGs like 5 years ago

Not to be contrarian but personally? I prefer to think of since 2000 ( really -) as the era whence Octobers (really autumns in general ) went rogue. You're not wrong with 'furnace,' but ... in that same era, I've seen something like 1/3 to 1/2 of Octobers host an actual snow-in-air event, too. Granted I'm not elderly, but prior to 2000, snow in October was just about unheard of outside of exceedingly rare scenarios in my ages living in either Michigan or New England. Both warm and cryo(cold) have been featured. It's really been a saga about enhanced variance - wide ranging. Novembers for that matter too -

It's like we live in a climate era where a solid below normal Novie ends in trivial/no snow for most, but a +5 month happened to have to a 20" blue bomb so that month steals the trophy - The 'ironic' climate period along the CC curve

Meanwhile, the Euro suite is leading the charge on an impressive -EPO from mid holiday week to the end of the month. The GEPs and GEFs have it but less coherently. All three were flagging some -EPO to end out the month over previous runs, but this 00z EPS and operational Euro set up a much deeper/climate cold loading pattern than the other two as of last night.

Quite the raging coastal bomb on the 00z GFS's thanks giving ...almost no support from the ensemble mean.

One of my little nerdly things is to take note of the first pond ice. I dunno if that was this morning - and rimming just the shore line with it counts - but seeing as the low was in the mid 20s the previous night, and then all the way down to 18 last night, I'm curious if any of those typical kettle ponds around the region didn't set up around the edges

Living in a valley that routinely collects cold on radiational nights with superb efficiency. You wouldn't think it just by glancing at a surface chart this morning but this setting realized an 18 F low.

Have you noticed that? I was just thinking about this the other day. We haven't had a good synoptic wind cleanse in a while. Typically in the autumn at some point you get a deep one rolling up and around the backside we get one of those pan regional 55 mph CAA wind advisory events. Seems it's been an unusually long while since that's happened.

That high pressure over Greenland is a semi permanent climate feature, particularly at this time of year and through the winter. It’s there because of intense cooling over the entire span of the ice cap. It produces an intense cold air inversion with cold density building - this also induces downward vertical motion over top as well because of divergence in the cold layer which also feeds back and raising surface pressure some

Then … humanity’s in the rear view mirror

Nah ... it's more likely that GFS -type solution is put through the "model magnification lens" at this range, D10+ There's a modest mode transition -related signal with the upstream modulation going on over the E-NE Pac into western N/A toward the end of next week. -EPO burst ( may or may not be very well spatially coherent in the layout, but is there in the numerical equivalencies) then relaying into a -1 to +1 d(PNA). So dumping some kind of Pac energy E of 100 W across the continent between D9 and 13 ( or so), isn't a terrible fit ...However, typically all guidance when first detecting those kind of favorable periods will first blow the charts away with a comet impact bomb. The actual numeric teleconnections would support system of less magnitude, however. So would watch that period for a flatter system of relative import ... rolling up underneath the predecessor D7 front/ frontal wave.

What I think is interesting here is that the MJO is on the doorstop of penetrating out of the RMM for the first time in weeks really, in mid 7 --> 8 ... which is prooobably less indicative of an actual MJO presence more likely the detection grid 'mistaking' R-wave forcing through the Pac domain. It's perhaps an indirect sort of indication that a signal is emerging because its detectable through different channel

GEPs trended colder. Probably an event risk in here, too.

Still looks BN favoring and potentially active, too

a lot of folks engaged in this sort of social media brand are not so much for enlightenment and advancement of personal understanding/curiosity fulfillment and/or fascination over the topics in play. If they were, there would be a lot more humility in lieu of just rhetorical questions, or out right inquiry, and any statements would be more obviously supposition aimed at eliciting exchanges of ideas. Those that do the former are after something else, most likely about being recognized

nice look above STL-DCA if there's any cold air around

Yep, there are wholesale difference in the ensemble spatial/domain layouts centered on the 23rd itself - just knowing that days leading and fading from then had to produce the following, but here are the GEFs from 06z That right there is a honkin' signal for with a hybrid -EPO/+PNA, also coupled this a deep latitude trough configuration downstream. Within that domain space, that's not an aberrant look. Fits the Rossby counts when considering upstream exit off Asia into the WPO domain, too. etc etc. The 00z version of this wasn't terribly different - just a somewhat lesser amplified version. The GEPs on the other hand looks a little bit less impressive... Although not the worse agreement, either. There is some semblance of nod to the notion of building heights into the EPO region ...which given time, lends to evolving toward the GEF's modes. But the point is, the ensemble means are also 'iffy' agreement. The 00z EPS has an oddly compressed height field across the hemisphere. It's as though it has -AO, with very little or not actual positive geopotential nodes above the PV boundary. - it's a separate discussion but whether the GEP or GEFs are correct aside, I don't believe this particular depiction is very likely to occur.

That's a fascinating all or nothing (warm vs winter) frontal boundary/wave train out there in the extended 06z GFS. It looks like 70's with severe on one side, with mix/snow shots running up the west side, over a span of 200 miles during the week of thanks giggedy. Also, so long as we're cooking hotdogs ... if the model run were to go out another kielbasa couple of days, that last wave would hyper bomb roughly along ATL to ISP

I don't doubt what your saying ... To be honest I alone ( I think ) have this notion that these classical longer term planetary indexes have been too disrupted by CC to be as reliant as before. Been saying this for 15 years actually ... The RONI efforts are a start - but I think there are emergent indexes that are just new frontier, they are like non-linear, and they are there in this era of the CC manifold. They may not be there given another 1.5 deg of holocaust (ha). So some hypothesis, duh. But something else is stealing the dependency/confidence - that's why we've been measuring wondering patterns and the sensible shenanigans that goes with it.

While the Dec nino stuff is what it is, I'm not sure what we are seeing out of that product has much to do with ENSO to be frank. I don't think even the RONI engineers fully grasp how disconnected these ENSO aspects are ... I keep reading the MJO folk stating "El Nino base state" like we're already coupled up and good to go. Are they just punching the f'ing clock? Put it this way, last year we generate an atmospheric river not once, but cyclically pulsing over the course of 40 some days, in a La Nina Meanwhile there's fame taking about how well it was a coupled hemisphere. Okay - but if we're doing demonstratively UNcoupled aspects while we are supposedly coupled during a 3rd year of a historic negative run, what the f are we gonna do with a fledgling El Nino that if anything looks like it's weakening months before the predicted acme. This will be interesting... But I'm not sure a warm December won't just be a coincidental. Last year in October ...I recall a snarky prediction that the winter pattern would only look La Nina like when it happened to be differentiating through the La Nina base pattern climo but ultimately just being en route to some modal state that isn't very La Nina like. That prediction was completely f'n nailed as far I as I'm concerned given that firehose off the midriff Pac latitudes.

fwiw the 12z GEFS and GEPS don't send warm vibes post the 20th.

it's a little bit sensitive as a guidance tool for 'CAG' -related emergence. GGEM used to be this way back in the day ...circa 2002 ( man that seems like yesterday and it was 21 years a-fuggin go).. But I've noticed these latter renditions of the GFS is 'sort of' the same way. The canonical Central American Gyre tends to muscle up in autumns as a normal climate feature, but the models spit TC and or hybrid circulations out of it more sensitively than actually happens. Then some years you get your Opals. I wonder if Sandy was a CAG cane? I think that was a late MDR wave but I'm not sure. So yeah.. for now I'm not really taking that seriously but will still reserve a place at the table in deference to climate.