Typhoon Tip

Old news

Tucking

Yeah, getting that temperature shedding here now too. 43 to 38

It’s likely that it’s over amplified in the runs to begin with, just based upon modeling performance over the last 5 to 7 years across-the-board ; they all seemed to engage in that.

I caution about attribution to El Niño with fast jets… We’ve been having fast jets due to gradient saturation for several years now, regardless

Uh, actually ... it means that rain is falling into a thermodynamically colder layer(s). Usually it's snow melting through an elevated WARM layer, and then as the rain droplets fall back through a lower DP layer, it cools and freezes. Typical sleet sounding has temperatures falling going up to about 925 or even as high as 700 mb in some extreme cases, with an overriding melt layer.

Well that's new to me. Add that to the birthdays. Hell, maybe he was born on every day - god is everywhere, right? I don't frankly care. I mean, I honor the guy if he was a some kind of "humanitarian Einstein" but it stops there. I'm happy faith gives people happiness. We only live once. Shy of harming others in the procuring of happiness, go for it! Personally? I'm gonna go ahead with actually needing to see walking on water, or pulling fish out of an eerily empty wicker basket for the hapless masses, before I bother to look into it any further

Not that you asked but I suspect during this WAA thrust aspect where ever is rain at this time, stays as is... A bit later, some commitment to 2ndary ...blah blah, the cold/mixing drawn south, but it will be light. This system was a pain in the ass. Its a higher than usual latitude quasi Miller by smear, that could have occurred even 100 miles S in totality and at least inserted marginal chance to SNE. I don't think CNE/NNE will complain, just sayn'. This "signal" was around the charts for over a week. I brought it to attention days and days ago as a 'period of interest' but wah wah, the GFS does astoundingly well from a long range with a warmer solution and also negative interfering wave spacing. The Euro seem to spend time too chilly, but I stopped looking when it appeared to be nothing for my back yard. LOL I've noticed the lack of front side cold air has been a prevalent in all systems, regardless of ENSO this, polar index that ... going back years. Interesting. Imho, that February 2015 was a completely different hemispheric phenomenon which can and should be considered an unique outlier for study. Otherwise, the definitive porking of specifically snow thing began around 2011... 2010 was the last year I remember front side cold being substantive enough to force a colder profiled systems. No, I am not saying it hasn't snowed, nor that front side hasn't been cold upon occasion. We're trying to be lucidly fair about trends here.

I think there is an argument out there that Jesus may have been really born in June.

Oh I think that's worth a proverbial couple of bucks, actually. I've yelled with pen for years that CC doesn't have enough natural advocates, in that, it's taking too long to appeal to any of the natural senses. That is the problem What is read on the side of humanity's bus is, "Denial Unlimited" while we ride along toward the cliff. The ass end of the vehicle is completely stained by exhaust soot. This probably all should go over to the climate forum somewhere, but the lacking evidence aspect is at last starting to change. Images of glacial retreat, sea level rise this and that. Hearing of rising heat -related deaths (empirically) at an alarming rate all over the world. It's not like it was just a hot Asia. It's observed and objectively measured spanning every continent (when will DCA-BOS have their 108 day). For objective minded observers, these are not easily explainable by so-called, 'naturally occurring phenomenon' of rogue weather patterns. The unilateral aspect is damming, nor are these invented CNNers... As much as we loath the "Industrial Media Complex," you know ...maybe, just maybe, the shock headline can in principle serve an unintended good - this is what it takes (apparently) for pacified Industrial societies to wake the fuck up. It's always been that way. Since (really) the early to particularly mid last century. Anyone can search this material and read about it in short order but scientists began postulating global warming over a 100 years ago. It was mostly drilled into volcanoes and/or celestial mechanics in the early decades - probably the source of the "this has always happened" mantra. But, by the 1960s the first postulations were advanced related to C02 - that which can be related to human activities. The 1970s were an 'awareness set-back,' more apt to say an 'ah, bunch of bullshitness' decade (the very primitive first form of denial) as the global temperature curve either leveled off for awhile, or even descended slightly (I've seen conflicting records on either). But really, this warming world has been a non-deviated positive when observed over the longer term trend, going back to 1900. It's just that only in the last 20 years have we begun to cross thresholds. So yeah, the proverbial memo is now passing through eye balls and ear canals. Kind of reminds me of how art can be inspired by reality. We only hope reality won't parody that scene in the movie "Return Of The Jedi," between "Darth Sidious" and the "Luke Skywalker" hero: "Young fool. Only now, at the end, do you understand"

Scott noticed the inverted trough on the GFS 3 or 4 days ago. So yeah, it's been there. The column should be cooling over top so that may offer that instability. Thing is, 'NORLUN' used to always be difficult/elusive. As far as I'm aware they are yet to be very well forecast' ? not sure what the skill on that phenomenon is as of late. I've tried to make a call on NORLUN in the past. The errors I observed were most commonly: getting it to happen, then, pivoting S as a correction in guidance. They seemed to start out at some latitude and then tick S. I've seen some up in Maine tick S and keeping ticking S, ultimately ticking right on out to S and not happening on land at all when the time frame arrives.

I know. CNN is and cannot be trusted, as their vetting and materialization of "news" is completely sculpted for manipulating mouse clicks, thumb swipes and TV channel selection. But in this case, the essence is valid and I'm willing to drop that reticence in lieu of the bigger picture: I don't have qualms with reality and I don't play games with statistical portents, ever. As soon as the latter starts to materialize a portrait of either cold, warm ...wet or white ...etc, that's it. I critique that art, not the intent of the artist. In this case, .9" on day A and .9" on day B ... is a meaninglessness distinction to me. The two day being 1.8" does nothing to invalidate the astonishingly bad illustration of what that means when considering the 650 day span. Sometimes we do this in society. We latch on to some meaningless trifle in the make up of the grander dog shit truth because there's comfort in the debate. It reminds me of my cat while growing up. I would do something like all little shits do to mess with her, and she'd run and stick her head in bag or under the covers. Her whole ass end and tail would be completely sticking out and exposed. The little space we provide in the debates shelter our perceptions, puts off our necessary acceptance. Again... it's a human thing. The other thing, the articles that I have read, state, 'in a single day' . I'm not numb to the notion that the way that is presented is divisive, but consider the source LOL. It's like that scene in that over-the-top Michael Bay ( the CNN director of Hollywood ) movie, "Independence Day" when all the clamor (debating .9 spanning two days...) fades to silence while this eclipsing shadow overtakes skies.

"normally" it would trigger me, also? But it doesn't in this case. The latter aspect, "The point stands..." is an empirical that's shared at continental scale - at least the eastern limb. So much so that overwhelms the ability to do so for me. - seeing as everyone gives a shit what I think. lol

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/02/weather/northeast-snow-new-york-climate/index.html

Everything sucks until it doesn't. Stop trying to convince others that it doesn't suck prior to not sucking.

Heh, wasted effort. It strikes me as a contrived argument. Latching onto semantics when it's patently obvious ...when someone says, 'exactly like last year' ..etc, they don't mean, exactly like last year down to the quantum variances the foam the Plank field, where so emerges the space time-fabric of the cosmos ... ( I call that 'the IQ of God') Nothing is absolute, in reality for that matter ... I guess even God cannot make up his/her mind ( most likely, a she then - ) including comparing any aspect of weather history. The obvious: any poster content that says 'exactly like this or that,' is far in a way intending to mean similar? just sayn'

Agreed ... regardless of approach/technique/method in this game, that feature/handling on that run looks like an artifact of noise.

Agreed ...the Euro began a lean into a better fitted solution for the erstwhile telecon behavior - but also the observed mass field/synoptic evolution during the period - about 5 days ago at this point. Just wanna add for the general reader. I suspect the GFS may not do as well in a warm ENSO hemisphere *IF* the longer term correlation of tending to meridian flow types/coupling transpires. The La Nina was perhaps its recent hay-day during times when the hemisphere was more coupled.

acceptance of the world as both changing, BUT changing in a direction that will continue to erode on winters ... might go some distance in amelioration. Like the Buddha teachings inform, ... all anxiety is ultimately rooted in failure to realize expectation - from what I gather, that is... Even if that butchers that philosophy at its core, that's 'sides the point. There are kernels of usefulness for this engagement/hobby of seeking dopamine tied to weather modeling HAHAHA. Cut the expectation of actually getting a hit off the crack pipe in the first place -

Is this a self-soothing remediation effort ? LOL j/k

November is the first month of the year that I consider a negative temperature result as wasteful when/if there are not interesting events. It just not as ugly as doing so in D/J/F/M. altho to be fair, there was that light event last week in the interior. still, overall kind of thumbs down.

ha, was just looking at that. or something like it... I was noticing that we are not far in that depiction from setting up a multi day ENE flow through that polar air. we may end up with shopping flakes

Did the IOD collapse ?

Wait until quantum drive technology powers the weather automation grid. Wont be modeling anything

I suspect two things are true at the same time, and they are competing.. 1 ..the models are vastly improved over where they were 30 years ago. Now ...that may have slowed down in recency ( last decade or so), sure... but they are still more powerful for computing speed and density of sample/grid intake --> physical processing than ever before. We need to just accept that. And they are not 'doing something different' while they are at it ? People seem to hint they are 'suspicious' or something. I'm like, yeah...of what? 2 Speculative ..the patterns of cold season hemispheres is different than it was 20 years ago. It just is... be it CC or not (related), the observed patterns enter into inherently poorer predictive states by breaking down at faster rates. Wave propagation mechanics are having tougher time in a continuity because the proverbial rug gets pulled out from under the pattern scaffolding so quickly. So what's going on is that we are with improved technological capacity that is just being stressed to the point where they can't perform as well as if these model advances were to have been set into practice 20 years ago.