Typhoon Tip

Interesting article ... I suspect many in this social media engagement have ruminated this, too - https://getpocket.com/explore/item/the-strange-blissfulness-of-storms?utm_source=pocket-newtab-en-us

Yeah, I was noticing some contention in wave spacing/focus too. Differences in that regard between the Euro (operationals) and the GFS shows what it can mean at the surface. Ex, the Euro puts subtly more emphasis on the lead wave and widens the gap ( which is unusual actually for this guidance to 'stretch' the field, at this range but it was what it was ). But, by doing so, it benefits from an acute fresh baroclinic gradient and pummels the interior with an early seasonal anomaly. Contrasting, the 00z GFS puts less emphasis on that lead wave, while maintaining enough integrity there that it does evac the b-c and well...that's technically neggie wave interference there. The arriving and closing deep mid/U/A trough looks awesome at 500 mb but you go look at the surface evolution and its sort middling and malnourished. All the above needs to be ironed out. Like I said just recently ...I think we are on the edge if we can just get the GEPs to come around some ... we'll have all three trending rightly for something to go down.

heh i might take any "c" at this point

I'd like the GEPs to come around some. I think we're close to starting a "period of interest"/signal thread for the 4th -6th period of time ( Will and I spent some time going over the vitals yesterday, the aspects of which are still carrying on ...). With that source added along with some continuity from the others, ...we've started successful threads based on less before. Quickly, a few more members of the EPS and GEFs respectively have come around/added to the lowering pressure from the D. Marv to CC cyclone transit, which given the antecedent mass field behaviors with a ensemble weighted trough ejection from the west, plus the numerical telecons actually indicating a +PNA --> +PNAP expression etc (... to mention the less advertised -EPO load) that region statistically starts glowing.

Very interesting statements from the MJO desk at NCEP re the present and future ... - to me, the aspects portend a very amplified pattern potential over the Americas during the 2nd half of Dec. I suspect the Euro may collapse the phase 4 idea some .. perhaps not all. I rather like the GEFs notion of the wave's slower decay in the attempt/RMM before reemerging where the wave will (by then) be in constructive interference with the ENSO, 7+. I'm just not sure the polar westerlies will fall into sync, but ...with the recent very deep diving -AO quite plausibly lingering out there in time, that "might" set the table for a constructive interference where the MJO is more successfully modulating the L/W distribution. So a little speculative, ...but is based upon extrapolation into known correlations so we're not just writing science fiction here.

The other way around is better. We used to have a saying up at UMass Lowell, 'First it gets warm, then it gets cold: BOOM' It seemed to also bear out statistically. But, the principle is the same in either direction, yes... In either case, large scale regime changes of temperature requires large mass fields ( indexes) in a state of change. Storms happen during those times of change as a matter of course. Going from cold to warm is less proficient because front side cold supply can be escaping with the gradient some half the times the storm is approaching. We end up with cold going right to marginal rain ... Contrasting, cold arrival tends to outpace the Pacific and/or diving S/W supply upstream. Along they ride running up underneath the newly (fresh) cold supply and ...well, fun ensues. You'll get a kink on a miller A boundary, and/or a strong clipper/miller b type disturbance tunneling though the cold troposphere. Personally? I prefer the latter to the miller A. I have seen some nasty pig miller As with their big PWAT transport. They are fun where it's all snow, but therein is the problem. The bombogens 'tend' to be Del Marva to just off the Cape. And captures are all but exclusively miller Bs. They take place where deep cold (relative to season) situates in uneasy proximity to a warm source - that is quite natural during recent cold arrival, from ~ E PA to Maine. Just waiting to get sucked S underneath an an intensifying E flow between 850 and 700 mb. All of which is more likely during and aft of the warm --> cold transition variant. There can be exceptions of course... There's the theoretical states where a miller A gets captured by a diving impulse aloft ...I suspect 1888 and 1978 might have been that rarity. Kind of a "miller C" if you will

You didn't ask me but ... I suspect the Euro is less correct about 4-6 phase space. It's not even clear the tropics are completely integrating a forcing above ~35 N to begin with. The dispersion mechanics don't seem to be overcoming mid and upper latitude flow and anomalies thereof It's sort of counter intuitive, but if it were ... the 4-6 wouldn't be correlated well with warm ENSO and would tend to be in destructive interference. So why would an MJO of any kind be able to? In other words, inability to escape and modulate would work in both directions. I've noticed a lot of MJO reliance creeping back into the various sub-forum chatter when again again again... the MJO's are constructive or destructive interferences - they don't really drive the patterns, they either reenforce or offset by less than totality - there are times when it's completely unable to at that.

What's +3 in Anchorage in November .... 19 instead of 16 LOL J/K

It's kind of a sloppy usage, yup. I noticed that myself - they come and go.. But, I've come to realize that in order to affectingly communicate, you have to go with what people understand? The "group understanding" is more heavily influenced by the spirit/mood of the era, than it is by longer term/'more correct' this that or the other thing.

fwiw -

That GGEM is right on the fence from cashing in on this idea..It's like all or nothing with that polar high up there. There's a weak analog to a '50/50 low' there, with polar high/confluence over top orienting between it, vs this important +PNAP pulse. If that presses just 'this much' more, it's going from cold rain to blue snow and whole different world evolves. It's almost harder to keep that mix. Either or Thing 4th-6th period has been repeating since last Monday - I glanced at that charts over the course of the holiday week while down in Va Beach ... when it was like hour 312 I'll just convey ... the reason for 'chance to go colder' is/are some canonical telecon behaviors/projections that 'tend' ( not always, Kevin) to send cold air across southern Canada - often times we correct toward subtle but crucially more confluence to also aid in delivery.

Hint hint, I wouldn't mention it if there weren't a chance ( in my head ) that it might trend colder lol. But yeah, we'll see - 'period of interest' is like a step below 'signal'

There is a 'signal' (more apt a period of interest..) I've been watching for Dec 4-6th.

Per my own observation, there are homages to favorability, both in observed recency, and in the pattern created by guidance, going on thru mid December - perhaps the 2-3" last week and this deal late last eve up N hearken to being 'favored' as such. There are also discrete telecon modulations that blah blah might be related. The problem ( the way I see it) is the fast nature that is physically present. It's excessive progressivity becomes a destructive interference. It's tending to "hide" potential because wave spacing is being stretched so far that new albeit transient inflections in the flow materialize due to Coriolis forcing. Speed is competing with an El Nino.. It's sort of a split hemisphere with any correlative nature to ENSO being sheared off around 40 N. I would even consider the lack of emerging STJ is really because of that virtual boundary is sort of 'trigger stop'

Nice blue tinted cryo dawn photos above. Been glancing at guidance here and there while out of town just to keep a toe hold on trends. Homages are there for cold availability ... only when there are no disturbances. This was similar to Dec 2014 and pretty much all of the 1980s ( lol ). I'm not suggesting this will go on to being the theme of this particular relay into winter, but over the last week to 10 day's of guidance we've been BN then normal to modestly above with rain showers around a 2 to 3 day cycle. Despite that, T-Giving eve (last Tuesday?) 2-3" and now this overnight up north were sneaky. There is a signal that I've been watching for Dec 4-6th.

I also suspect we may deal with this whenever the -EPO pulses during ensuing months - the residual HC height dispersion from the south is just going to offer lingering resistance every time we tried to load colder heights S of the 50 N and we'll be sending B.C. wave to NS in 72 hours flat ... Perhaps not every time but a repeating theme.

I've been trying to explain to folks ( it likely comes off a little heavy handed but don't mean it to be - ) that there's a fair amount of amplitude signaled in the numerical telecon spread and behavior. There's a sequence of events in the spatial/synoptic coverage that fit the canonical relay between the -EPO --> relaxation --> into a +d(PNA). I suggest it's throwing some operational model versions into a tizzy. The former signals an intrinsic pattern change from the E-NE Pac arc downstream over the continent and well ... when have pattern changes ever been exceptionally well handled. I would take a step back from really taking any particular operational run very seriously in lieu of ensemble mean. I looked at the EPS and GEFs from 12z and saw reasonable continuity over prior runs. It's really the operational GGEM and GFS that are acting like the unmanned fire hose - but again ... I sort of give them a break at D6 when trying to assess through the inflection of a -EPO / rising PNA relay. My feeling is that a middling system that is moving fast reenters the GFS frames. I also want to caboose Will's sentiments about fast Novembers - that is particularly true when the NE Pac is trying to load Canada ...and once over true again anyway as an observed hemisphere during cold seasons, with increased frequency state over the last 10 to 15 years ( regardless of any longer term planetary indices, too). It's relevant to discourse because these systems are torpedoing

Lol, yeah ...I guess as a matter of course - we can count on least excuse imagine to avoid the horror of snow in air

I'm the one who started it - haha. Last night I reposted a text a Met buddy sent along to me... I captioned it, 'this outta get the feathers in the coup' ... In referenced some climate study/Biden administration - not sure what the connection there really is ... but, it was just for a lighthearted troll thing

I wouldn't let this flat scenario emerging out of the 12z runs completely sway you. There's still a telecon signal in place during the week next week that supports more amplitude. It is/was always about what form that takes - taking NO form wasn't really part of it. This looks like an 'over-compensating' adjustment by the GFS. Possibly some critical data is not being assimilated properly or ended up missing to some degree - this kind of abrupt continuity is okay but it is going farther than the numerical derivatives ( teleconnectors) suggest it should. That said, perhaps the latter wholesale changes too - if so... that's a different scenario.

You know ... back on page 59, I wrote a synoptic op ed that tl;dr for most ( lol ), but I put this statement in there, "...In both solutions, the western ridge isn't reconnecting into higher latitudes post the N and S/streams passing E. This tends to also limit the stream interaction in lieu of longitudinal wave morphology ( stretching W to E) ..." I also mentioned to "Pope" (?) I think they call that Met? ... something that hearkens to the same notion. I Frankly see the 06z - type antic as perhaps a manifestation of that stretch/stressing in the mass-fields. Whether it goes on to mean much or not, or slips back ... See, we have to keep in mind, the models are not going to render solutions that are physically IMpossible. They wouldn't be very useful as 'guidance' means, would they. They may erroneously focus on some factor, but the factor its self could conceivably still exist. There's a difference between physically can't, vs erring on variables that feed the physics. Anyway, recognition of pattern, it can be a viable means to "correct" ( with uneasiness at times, admittedly) for what the models are doing. When I said that, it was not beyond the realm of possibility. So we'll see. No horses in the race. I'm leaving the region for the holiday, so y'all mo'fuggas gettin' a minimum of a foot of snow in high winds and blinking power I'm sure

That said, I see what Brian means though ... I mean just the comparison to the Euro and GGEM's erstwhile solutions ...these latter have been more consolidated and tending more W in the total manifold all along. It's kind of an interesting "lesson" maybe? You know, when you have a valid guidance persisting with some stress on the consensus, you gotta kind of watch for it. It means there's physics there ( most likely...) that could manifest at some point. interesting... In any case, yeah ...goes without saying, DEFINITELY need some sort of support from other guidance sources on this. lol

Mm... I beg to differ there. This 06z is a significant and large synoptic morphology over previous solutions. Should one choose to except that solution/evolution ( ) ... it throws a big monkey wrench into the previous plan for a deeply wound 500 mb/SPV over Lake Superior -like idea, which would've driven the previous idea of a primary going up moose-fartsville Canada with weak ( perhaps crucial for deep interior mix/ice) secondary... blah blan. The 06z completely rearranged the synoptic evolution ... shallowing out the wholesale 500 mb trough. There's a lot of ways this mechanically differentiates the entire eastern continent pattern. For one, the loss of compression and shallower 500 mb super massive black hole allows a middle mass proto star event to orbit it's S/W around the underside. It is allowed to maintain enough of its own amplitude to ignite the NJ model -like solution we see there. This new total solution change in the scaffold, which results in a different surface evolution. Anyway, I think'll be interesting to see if any other guidance begin to collapse that way. Forget the arguments on the differences, what an awesome mid range model highlight that would be - posterized slam dunk ownership.

Yeah, as a general rule, you just look at d(p) over central NE if it’s falling at a slower rate than PVD it’s unlikely a warm front penetrates N

This oughta raise the feathers in the chicken coop ”Snowy Massachusetts winters could be a thing of the past, according to a new climate report released on Tuesday by the Biden Administration and the U.S. Global Change Research Program”