Typhoon Tip

The storm’s an hr old and everyone’s saying it’s underperforming. Haha.

this is starting as an OE band here. Storm entry is still down in southern Orh county

It'll be interesting if A ... the GFS actually succeeds in propagating the MJO around a robust phase 4-6 signal like that. B, the WPO is projected to be in an equally handsome destructive interference with that MJO actually doing that. That would argue that even if the wave propagation somehow squeezed through the elephant's ass cheeks mashing down over the western Pacific ... the transmission of the WPO --> EPO in time ( which is already HUGELY modeled to do so) toward mid month, all be precludes the MJO even dispersing any forcing into to the R-wave distribution. It'll be neat to see which signal wins.

Yeah ... See! it's getting cooler

And while not brutally/historically cold, that's an interestingly sustained negative anomaly going from the NP/GL/NE regions, simultaneously while the GFS figures out how to cut storm west. It just seems like we're staring at modeling amplitude biases doing that, particularly when the western limb -NAO variant keeps re-materializing in the means - should back drill lower heights and a NW flow right where the oper versions keep butting heads with that signal. I'm not sold on that traffic routing with those cyclones...

mm if that arm of polar high pressure arming east over 1030mbs is real those surface features over NE are not going to do what that ... sorry, not happening. 14th

Meh ... wouldn't shock me if that decision is largely demographic. Sunday anyway. Wind driven snow or snow and rain.

The only operational run from 00z that actually looks like a reasonably correlation/fit for their ensemble mean is the GGEM. The operational Euro and GFS are almost completely out of phase with their own ensemble mean. This is can be pointed out via numerical telecon, or illustrated just observing the 500 mb total hemispheric geo-potential anomalies distribution ... right out through 360 hours. What all that means is that either the operational runs are wrong. The ensemble means are wrong. Or, they both are, and that reality will blend them. If it is this latter option, how much or how less? Basically, very low skill. Despite the demonstrative and seemingly beady-eyed persistence to drive Lakes cutters ( oper versions) into a -NAO exertion ( ens means), the actual deterministic value there is questionable.

I just looked at the 12z NAM FOUS grid and those numbers would suggest near blizzard conditions due to falling and blowing snow combined sometime between 10z and 14z over the city of Boston and some of the immediate NW-W-SW subburbs. I'm not sure we can get by without at least some marine contamination right at the shore points - just being conservative about that factor. But sustained 36 mph BL wind implication with 31F with pure snow vertical thermal structure ... Coming down Arlington Heights ... and up E of BED and down toward Newton and possibly down toward Milford ... that region would be very low visibility right around dawn tomorrow with impressive fall rates, with occasional wind gusting. This run has nearing 1.5" liq equiv in the QPF column of the FOUS grid for Logan, and all of it as happening in a sub 0C total vertical sounding. Looking down toward LGA on the grid, with well over an inch and a 6-hrly interval exceed .7" (!), then translating NE... Within the run its self, this is a packaged well-behaved deal that implicates the HFD to Boston corridor. Obviously there is other guidance.

It may enhance the CF

I'm not (personally) sure we are in an El Nino circulation manifold. Just a personal observational take. I don't want to derail the thread at this late our... but will offer in brief: The PDO being out of phase with the warm ENSO, all along, is a specter that's been acknowledged, but the limitations on the El Nino forcing/offset ...all that? mmm, hasn't been accepted nearly enough. It's not the correlation between the El Nino and the PDO ( being out of phase) itself that is the problem, it is the correlated hemispheric pattern with PDO, and that which correlates to the EL Nino ... those are competing. For that, I don't believe the El Nino can mathematically be construed as really coupling/forcing much outside subtropics. This is not a very good El Nino footprint hemisphere, and the "super synoptic" behavior ...It gets into a different discussion that ranges between speed of the flow contamination f'ing up the standard telecon correlators... and possible attribution shit, as well as a healthy dose of people not wanting to accept things. Back to storm: I agree with the climo track. Not just that... a lot of metrics in this are really more ideal than not. Mid level wind max traveling 1.5 degs lat/lon S of L.I. tends to pummel the Pike when dealing with the cryo -soundings. Which we have. It's just a matter of the run to run idiosyncratic mechanical headaches, trying to not actually snow for whatever reason. Then reversing the next run(s) ...rinse repeat. Some of that - I believe - is related to the narrowing and "needle thread" nature of this system. I spoke at length about this days ago, that a deterministic headache for this in that it is at the far eastern end of the R-wave signal - that's like the loose end of a hose (metaphor)... Features conveyed through those regions will " flop around" a bit more than where mid way across the R-wave function where it is more predictively (between the ridge/trough couplet) anchored...etc...etc.. This has been behaving like that. These different metrics are scattering around from run to run. When they collocate better in space in time, we get the solid playout... When the scatter, we get a 06z Euro type distraction. After that long blather ...( ha) this will require some NOW-CASTing... Particularly around 12z tomorrow, if there's going to be a CCB genesis we'll probably see the zygote observations beginning to emerge.

Noticed this too .. .the slowing. That, and some of these shorter term meso runs hammering the CCB ... these come off as having 2nd S/W taking back control -again- after the 24 hour hiatus. I thought maybe while it was relaying through that narrow ridge spine aligned along the WC ...might have been causing some issues with the runs - speculation - sort of losing it for awhile. It seems something's giving back to that - it may still be less than that eye-popper solutions 2 days ago, but partially back.

Fantastic crunchy ground temp crash in Boston Sunday afternoon

I may be in the running for max

I mean the problem I have with this is ... how the fuck are we cutting anything into that cosmic scale barrier jet. Jesus - Just getting the hemisphere to that point means we're exerting against being able to do that, ... way before hand. That kind of hemispheric super structure doesn't just happen tomorrow. I just wonder if some of these operational runs don't start favoring eastward adjusting. If we apply some attenuation as a perfunctory model error/requirement, that tends to cut down on the left turn from that source to. It just seems (almost frustrating) like the operational runs must be deliberately perturbed to attempt the physically impossible. ( that's a kidding but you but you get it )

ha! haven't we gotten stoned enough for one afternoon? ..start losing weight and getting constipated if we keep it up -

I've asked this half joking but will again ... has there ever been an NFL game delayed because of lightning in heavy snow?

I wanna clear up a hotdog issue I have with ptype dorkology - in order, it goes: rain --> cold rain --> 'cat paws' --> white rain --> slush --> wet snow --> snow -or- rain --> cold rain --> 'cat paws' --> IP ....I only bring it up because it annoys me for all the hours I spent as a child glaring at a windshield with biting rain hitting my neck ... trying to discern how much snow was getting to the ground. I did not spend those hours in vein! haha

I hate the NAO by the way... It's the bastard index of the bunch. It really only exists because it's the residue of the Pacific R-wave decay after its been tormented by continental storm traffic and topographic bouncing. It's stochastic because that stuff, and just because it is complex, but complexity that is through a virtual continental boundary of chaos. It's like it almost can't be modeled unless this QC stuff really comes on line - that's a fascinating 'nother discussion. Really - if quantum computing comes on line, those kind of 'fuzzy logic' aspects of this business get a lot more clear ... real fast. - digress

Just adding to Will's post above ... ...the GEFs seem to be trying to lean more GEPy on this 12z mean, as already by D9 we see a more western limb -NAO expression .. .even merging with the eastern extension of the EPO domain. Heh, you know, I've always wondered if there should be a mid Canada ( >60 N) teleconnector domain defined

Re the 10th: the last 4 or so cycles kept carving the trough bottom SE in the operational GFS. I haven't been looking at ens due to personal energy budget issues and being sick of it all for a little while... As of the 12z rendition this morning ... that's already moving a wind max and associated PV field under L.I. The surface position with a fanned out gunk warm sector failure look is purely a function of failing surface high pressure and colder BL resistance mechanics - there's no resistance, no Miller B The hemisphere just didn't time well with that trough. If there was more CAD and high up there, drilling any trough bottom and wind max under one's latitude would likely result in a different reality than what you are seeing in that model's cinema. I still think we are heading in the right direction for the 13-16th. If one has to be told not to hold onto any one model solution from this range than they really should change engagements to save the quality of their lives... The pro is that we have a shit ton of cold air across southern Canada by then, with spill over episodes. Troughs moving by NW will likely tend to tilt their veritical vortex structures and send that "SWFLow" type system result. But it's not abundantly clear troughs will all do that in that time span. Con, they seem to be trying to do so overnight because the -NAO blocking was repositioned ( think Charlie Brown) just enough to allow a storm track to curl NW earlier on. That could go the other way. If the NAO does take the ball away then we suffer the cold roll-out into rain alternation deal, though. I'm not thinking that happens at this time.

it's onshore now

heh.. I gather the sardonic humor but just the same - It's a flat wave that possibly becomes a rapid deepener upon exit, with a CCB genesis transporting fresh ( not rotted) maritime polar air back west. That synoptic circumstance sort of puts your area ( #MeToo btw - ) in the running for winner. It's like you're in the top 3 seeds heading into a playoff. Let's just hope it's not like the President's Trophy curse in the NHL lol

well they're all getting ( or should be getting) a real dose of what's arriving off the Pacific - the mechanics are finally actually just over land as of the 12z initialization. How they individually handle the ingest ( physically ) is a discussion with the modelers at NCEP ... actually "Environment Canada" in this case

I originally thought the 4-6th was more probability favored, too. It was due to the proximity of the last +PNA. It was weakening in the projections... but still numerically valid. In fact, it was/is valid (at the time) through the 10th, which is why I included the 6-8th - it was a matter of 'leaning'. But because the 4-6th was still more embedded under the meatier side of +PNA curve ... and on and so on. ...It's always a conductor's migraine to try to 'cinema' these probabilities. It's predicated on the telecon projects also being right for one. But also, there's room to wiggle within a signal and end up with a result that can be less than ideally correlated ( looking ). This is definitely a hemisphere that would favor that latter aspect happening, with idiosyncrasies abounding.