Typhoon Tip

Looks like the Euro's superior grid spacing may be tapping into the local baroclinic field. The 925mb through 850 mb thermal gradients are rather packed from the mid Jersey coast up toward the Cape; that's an indication of the rather upright frontal structure extending skywards - above/over top where the pressure bends back NW. IF/when the mid level wind max noses over that, the inflow (synoptic scale) that it induces below will then be forced in ascent at a very proficient manner - enhancing the rate of QPF generation being one result. But also, the enhanced UVM lowers the surface pressure more. That's all likely why we are beneath 990 mb.

It's not physically impossible - if that's what you mean. But yeah, also being on more than one model (cross-guidance) lends confidence. It's a delicate precision wave space interaction - impressive that we are getting that "agreement" ( however tacit notwithstanding) with such a fragile arrangment at D4 .. 4.5

The continuity between the 00z and 12z solutions out there around 84 -102 hours is pretty damn clad and tight. This is the best interval, to date, wrt this event that's shown more than a modicum of confidence/determinism.

haha... you're so greedy

looks like a solid hit on the Euro - moderate but solid.

yup

we all have are fetishes. Mine's the FOUS grid. I love it when a big dawg arrives near enough to show up in the FOUS numerics. Seeing a UVM of 30+ units with a .95" melted equiv in the QPF column, whilst a thermal profile of -2/-2/-4 (C) at hour 60 ... while knowing that the storm really maxes at hour 72 makes ... Then waiting for the next model cycle, and when seeing it arrive with not only that .95" but the new 60 is a buck and quarter... Ho man! Load that needle with the good smack - that's like that "Blue Magic" from "American Gangster"

oh, kidding. I'm like wtf

Hasn't the GGEM been the most reticent to losing this thing all along? seems that way - but I only see that model at 12z and 00z. Last night's 00z was only S of the 12z yesterday but was still a more potent low response. i dunno

Yeah, in addition to slight ( but crucially) deeper lead S/W, there's a better S/W ridging rolling out ahead. That should left the axis N in concert with what you're seeing there -

Looking 78 hours ... this is more potent. How much so? mm 10 .. 15% but that's likely all that's needed to bring moderate more convincingly so NE PA to S of Boston - speculating

that's part of it .. (leave it at that )

F! Will beat me by 10 sec on that one -

Interesting...looks like the GFS is attempting merger, too

Yeah ... I didn't know that about the GFS/NAM specifically with that site, but I do use it first thing in the morning over a cup of coffee for the Euro and Canadian. I like a coarse/cursory eval to either confirm, deny or piss me off before I dig deeper later in the morning (when I'm supposed to be doing my actual day job...) haha.

GFS has 5 to 10 kts more wind speed in the 500 mb wind flags amid a potential field with more compression along along the western flank of the SW trough at 30 hours. Ha! beat that

Not to impugn you guys ( seriously ) but that seems kind of questionable as auto practice? Tell me that's not what's happening there. We can't just dump a bunch of raw output mass into a blender - doesn't that utterly defeat the very real possibility that the nuanced solution is more correct? I'd argue that latter aspect is pretty prevalent in these fast flows scenarios. Also whence it's become more apparent that telecon correlators seem to skew relative to results

cool - thanks for the heads up. I don't keep up with that stuff because I arrogantly don't think I need it so up to the date. haha. -then I'm all pissed off when my hot dogs are cooking and I can't take a bite yet

Okay ... I see. The ICON is doing what the Euro is attempting to do. Both appear to initiate a coastal response ( to varying specific success) out of the first wave, which is in the process of being merged with the 2nd - playing rapid catch up. The 2nd wave sort of quasi captures where the first wave initially triggered the coastal response, and then takes over governing the evolution of the event thereafter.

HAHA ... add that to the list -

no wonder no one reads my posts. i'm always an hour late

Are you getting your products from a paid service other than tropical tits or pivotal shits? I'm always hung on like ...hr 72 on these sites while you guys are clanking goblets of ale over the model run

I'd be okay with that. I mean ... ( you know what I mean here -) this is our first attempt at getting this winter to do jack shit that looks at all like winter. I'm willing to (holistic sensibility) allow this be an appetizer -shot across bow- type of event. You know, there's a signal around the 15th -any takers? LOL

NCEP should create a crowd control model called the 'OHMYGODISH' Run it several iterations over -whatever it takes - with perturbed physics and/or diabolically tweaking initialization grid values, anything to get the model to always illustrate the maximum dystopian potential. -that way ... if when we say, "It looks OHMYGODISH..." we have a direct frame of reference to pin our hopes to

I'm kind of hoping it degenerates but not entirely, and we get like a light to moderate burst, followed by the jet going by smearing out 30 straight ours of blue-gray tinted light through windows with mood snowing trickling down past.