Typhoon Tip

Is this some sort of a tacitly defined competition over whether this warm ENSO gets to super distinction or not ?

18z GFS water-boards western CT

Well... if we get a big snow month, I'd be more impressed if the individual events were something more dense than 29::1 snow ratios

It's physically impossible from the snow growth area of the sounding because colder air can't physically hold enough water vapor. In order to have enough water vapor would mean the air mass is intrinsically above freezing. There are some upward exceptions, such as forced up-glide over terrain from a water source - like driving a Pacific 'river' jet through the snow growth region of the sounding up and over the Sierra Nevada ... etc.

In honesty ... I don't follow him. Is there some history of impropriety and stuff ?

Placing a dramatic micro node of negative over the southern tier of Lake Michigan might be a nod toward suspicion there

Might be a little harsh .. I mean, I'd prefer to actually hear and have time to process Schilling's reasoning for divulging the information before a Hannibal Lectorian distinction haha .

That's what I was wondering .... why is Schilling announcing on his behalf? was he asked by Wakefield to do so - huh

To borrow from "War Games" ... that strikes me as "...Computer enhanced hallucinations..."

Not sure the "Euro trash" sentiment is justified.

Beyond D10 ( or so ...) there's was a mode switch overnight. The previous mass fields were orienting like there was no new signal beyond the warm up next week - it was more like fading to an echo but still there. That would lean toward a warm reload mid month... etc. Now, the overnight ensemble means of all three (eps/gefs/geps) took on semblance of western heights and JB trough axis. Nothing very amplified but a wholesale change nonetheless. Do with it what we will until there's established consistency -

Hohoho man... NO shit. That 'hook low' at 500 mb thing out there would probably incur multi-faceted problems from the M/A to New England should that happen. Fantasy fantasy fantasy

Under good conditions I've come to find that's the car top threshold. Clear sky, calm wind ... 37, metallic car tops will start to either solidify the dew that's there, or 'sponge frost' a layer. Maybe 38 if the night's long enough. Right around 35 for sky exposed lawn not under a tree.

Mainstream mentalities are utterly oblivious ... carrying on in their relative Industrial-provisional bliss. Which it really is an apropos description ... It's such a deadly combination. Create a bubble within a surrounding super structure that injures the super structure in such a way that will inevitable cause the bubble to "pop" - meanwhile those that created the bubble ( and continue to perpetuate its existence the human species ...) are provisionally soothed and molly-coddled and alleviated from ever seeing the consequence of said injury until it is too late? That's really what the Industrial Revolution ... no scratch Industrial Revolution ... it was always how we powered it mechanization.

Anyway, ...that idea on the 06z Euro ... mm, might be an aggressive outlier anyway, but it's not impossible. That said, Saturday's prooobably the last hurrah of this particularly long standing, anchored +PP over Quebec. From what I'm seeing ...the Euro is most amplified with results, but they all bring scunge skies and at least light measurable at least to CT/RI latitude on Saturday. Seems to be a matter of how much.

I don't know if it should be unexpected, actually. I outlined why we can't trust warmth and dry whenever there is/has been modeled, tendencies for over top high pressure, yesterday. As usual though ...rationality is back-burnered so that people can grouse instead LOL which is why this is apparently a 'support group' more so than any other use. I keep forgetting that. d'oh!

Definitely above normal. How much, historic or just warm, who knows, but it looks protracted either way. Short version, warmth through the 15th of October would appear to be above normal confidence. The longer version, because there is vivid cross-guidance ( EPS/GEFS/GEPS ) support, for one. They all merely fade out to 380 hours, having not actually ever moved the underpinning pattern behavior (when looping) away from the -PNA; a coherent baseline in that regard is evidenced. It's impressive they all end their runs with an echo of -PNA surviving the noise/entropy of the distant range. Another less obvious but useful signal/confidence is when looping these, the individual R-wave features are repeating where (spacial regions) they amplify and decay. Pattern stability, is what all that means. It doesn't mean we can't still generate enough over top high across Quebec to wedge-ruin a warm 500 mb look along the way. But when those intervals don't happen, that 850 mb seems to surpass +12C with episodic +16ers spanning some 9 days...

HAHA, I was just thinking that... no kidding. I was like, 'looks like we gotta wait'll the end of October' Maybe the definition of post CC "Indian Summer" ( so un-woke and racist ) should be redefined as, 'any dramatic warm-up after already having been close to frosting'

Not that anyone asked but I’m not sure he has that right anyway. It doesn’t matter so much whether the W PAC competes against the rest of the globe … (which is what is meant by relative to the rest of the planet); it only need be enough to positively or negatively interfere with the Walker circulation … Which that has been noted by NOAA over recent years as evidenced. That is why these more typically correlative eddies are breaking down … lending to occasional wondering off between the tropical forcing and the lower Ferrel latitude westerlies orientation - particularly during winters. Why the sentence, “… Doesn’t appear to be very XYZ ENSO like” is becoming an echo

12Z GFS even spares the 'continental tuck' at D7 and keeps that cold from calving SW ... Sets us up for a few days of > normals. How much so, or if this run even verifies... unknown

Brian's clearing came SW, ... west of 495 and almost to the Pike and gaining this hour. Some overriding cirrus but we've recovered to the low 60s. Satellite trends continue to thin, anyway.

Bingo! I've been writing about synergy in the system among these climate threads for several years now ... Mostly in deference to heat waves mechanics, but this is applicable at all scales and dimensions really. It's interesting, but it's likely an arithmetic sum( synergies of smaller systems )/n-terms = might look a lot like that secondary acceleration. Synergy is tough to predict though. It's really based upon the 2ndary interactions of the result set - so is entirely emergent. Like, A, B, C, ...F, G, H all are results of the linear mechanics, but then A, or B, or C ...etc, may constructively interfere with any of those others, to produce a new result set, A', B', C' ... which may interact again ...to produce A'', B'', C'' ... and on and so on. I mean you know this... just sayn'. The synergistic maximum is when all those "imaginary" possibilities no longer actualize to then constructively interfere again.

heh... probably another hour and change longer.

It's like a really good quarterback in Football ..doesn't through the ball to where the receiver is, he/she throws the ball to where the receiver is going to be - out in space and time. We are not throwing the predictions to the right projection of where the curve is going to be - possibly because the acceleration itself is in a state of delta. +d(dCC) Something is adding - Some of that is the immediate (likely...) correction whence La Nina circulation mode ceased - think 'elasticity' ... But there's something more, because in general ... climate change -related manifestations have been routinely occurring earlier than modeling now spanning the last decade or more, During this present terms, it interesting that the warming wasn't just air, but air and sea, and everywhere, all at once. Like, the Labrador head water warmth explosion this summer...soaring to some +12 amid the Maritime of Canada was tied to the ONI ? Same with NW Pacific. The Califorina current along the west coast... The ambient planar SSTs of all oceanic basins, gaining .. etc etc.

Seems that's a week or two later than the 1900 thru 2000 climo?