Typhoon Tip

funny you mentioned it that way. I've been thinking about the same arithmetic whenever I hear explanation rooted in 'law of averages' LOA doesn't logically make sense because (most likely) people are not moving the average in their heads - linear comparison. The trend-line is not linear but seems like it must be curving down. But ... others will be quick to point out that snow has gone up since whenever. I don't know what those numbers are per month. Maybe its gone up because single storm events snow 40" inches ... but then you go 3 years with only 2" in January, you get to still end up on the plus side. yay. It's like a deal with the devil. haha.

It's occurred to me over the last 2 to 2.5 days worth of guidance. Right around the time this "signal" started to morph into a possible colder profile, was just about when the all but dependable de-amplification thing began. It's also yet another telecon mode shift that either fails, or is a weakly correlated version of a restoring system. I guess I'm sort of wondering if changes in the models over the last 10 years are introducing/emerging new error spectra ... Just because there's nothing else to discuss on a slow morning of an off week ... the early depictions of this thing were different and warmer. We definitely are still warm at 850 relative to normals and all that, but the Ontario low with another wcb stripe idea have all disappeared in lieu of a what appears to be a paltry attempt at closing a surface low ... "gunk low" basically at this point. We've basically traded a can't snow because of a cutter to can't snow for any kind of other reason as yet to be manufactured LOL. Seems that way. frustrations and fun. We're depending on the ICON/GGEM/ 06Z GFS to put wet aggies in the air or something ... anything, to break up this monotony. You're right, though ... about Asia. You know, this reminds of that tortured autumn and early winter of 2006. Probably bears less analog ( or none...) notwithstanding, the end result of having a lot of early cold over there and nothing/very little over here; and it seems to be reproducing. 2014 did the same thing... again, perhaps for different reasons, the end result was the same. Let's hope we're nearing a flip this time, too.

Right ... and so now we're trying to go back the other way.

Yeah, that Canadian solution is suspect. Buuut not impossible, either. Hey, when we're terribly strung out in this detox fugue of shakes and apoplexy from L-dopamine shock by recent model shit cinema ( LOL ) ...we'll take even the cut product off the shady dealer. No but that "Ontario Dive" S/W scenario begin about 1.5 days ago as a sneaky tend to start calving the S/W back southwest in a steadily more obtrusive N/stream up there. The 00z GGEM last night finally look a little more interesting, where this one actually does the phase... etc. Again, we are still dealing with some neggie interference between this (new) GGEM idea, and that lead ... which evacuates the dynamics away and leaves that pig instability and jet machinery associated with the followup phase starved for fuel. Regardless of what model, and model run, ...this lead piece of shit thing has really been f-ing this thing up all along and still is... The GFS has the S/W up N, but its not attempting the integration until it's over the outer Maritime region. Heh... give it a couple more model runs - can't hurt.

Better hope Carolina and Arizona win a couple down the stretch 'cause otherwise, that 'miracle' just cost the Patriots the 2nd round draft pick. Which the need to seriously unf* the damage of that last 10 years of Belicheckian personnel incompetence -

Ha, right - I was thinking it's January business. It sort of overlaps though. For me and what I've been looking over/philosophy of things this starts around Dec 28th and terminates in a smear of probability out around Jan 7 ... After that, we may or may not reload. I'm actually thinking that this new -1.5 SD EPO dive with the PNA going back negative for 5 to 7 days toward the 10th of January, might actually be a cold dump into the west. We would unfortunately ( likely ) turn mild IF IF IF we don't split the flow while that is happening. If we do split ...then we're pouring cold out across southern Canada ( i.e., within reach) while the southern aspect of the split might make things interesting - I mean ...not a novel take on things. Split flows in winters can be both unremarkable, or extraordinary. If we don't split and the -EPO/-PNA underpins than we load cold west and warm up for time. But that's all relatively new and one thing that's been also true ( when not troubling) is the teleconnectors, themselves, have been less than stable projectors - it's actually an aspect that began about 7 years ago. interesting

I don't have a problem with any of this. I don't typically use/reliant upon the Euro sources but the GEFs have been flagging significant intrusive warm plumes in the 2 and 5 hpa ( I tend to use the temperatures and Wave 1 anomalies). They haven't been exactly coherent in suggesting warm bursts precede correlated down welling through the systemic PV, but my experience in the past is that there's these modeled false entries into an event before the real one takes place - sort of thing... I looked this morning and out around 300+ hours, there is now a ceiling thermal event through the entire depth, from 5 hpa all the way down to 70 hpa. This method of observing warm intrusion in the 2 .. 5 hpa levels, followed by emergence successively down through 30 .. 50 .. 70 hpa ( those are pressure-altitude coordinates ), has proved useful in early detection in the past. By the way .. this is coming from the American model. It's way up at the 2 hpa. The 5 hpa also is highly anomalously displaced. I've never seen these temperature wells displaced so S-E as to collocate over the Iberian Peninsula ... What ever causing this, it is suggesting that there is no PV over the regions N of 66.5N at these levels by 300+ hours. At a minimum ... this intuitively precedes and/or indicates active "breaking down" of PV. Which probably infers an era of extensive blocking nodes around the 50 to 70 N lower Ferral latitudes. Checking the distant ( 300+ hour range) height distribution, at the 100 hpa (which tickles the top of the tropopause) the PV has fractured into 3 distinct SPV nodes. These are all compelling arguments for SSW and at lest indirectly argue that the very important behavioral correlation of downward propagating warm plume(s) is under way. Without this itl/bold statement, these warm bursts have almost N/S correlation to the Arctic Oscillation. I also want to caution that the AO is forecast to switch to negative mode well prior to the SSW time-lagged correlation. This is sometimes true of other years in history whence SSW that were downward propagating successfully ... took place in an already erstwhile/ongoing negative AO biased winter. This would make it somewhat of a challenge trying to parse out exactly what is what in a the total manifold of forcing. cross that bridge..

oh yeah, and .... Merry Christmas

I'm actually more impressed that we're (apparently so...) on the cusp of a wholesale NH pattern change, yet ... it's almost eerily quite in the guidance. This has 'restorative event' written all over it, both conceptually and climatologically. Call it, "first it gets warm, then it gets cold, boom" Call it an "Archembault event" Call it whatever we want, history (and just flat out geophysics) vividly argue that such dramatic reconstructions of the super synopsis almost invariably drives an imbalance -related, large-scale mass-field correction event. Dec 30 thru Jan 1 had been hinting, particularly in the GEFs more so then the EPS/GEPs ( so its been voted against). It's in the right timing window ( though that could be extended to ~ Jan 7 really -). They were struggling to trend, but overnight the paltriness of it unraveled. That's not cutting it - this shouldn't take hints. We should already been observing at least a quasi reproducible and sensibly real suggestion(s). This is flat out trying to do this remarkable change with nothing happening. interesting - I still would not let guard down. The runs may look putrid overnight ... but they're trying to take us through a proverbially minefield over these next 10 days. And given the inherent limitations of determinism, not just in the state of the art, but during known headache variability during pattern changes ... they're doing so without a very good map.

Heh. I thought it regressed a little… But I have been basing my previous observations on the ensemble mean because the operational runs across the board have been unusually stochastic.

Well .. the 18z GEFs have arrived and continued the trend with 6 dm deeper at 500 mb .. carrying a two contoured closed low passing it along the climo track under L.I. this Friday night. What I mean by 'climo' , that typically produces in SNE Yet, the surface reflection still leaves something to be desired. The mid and upper air features are in fact deepening, not weakening, through at least 6 z that night. I dunno. It's right on the edge. I don't think this can deepen aloft much more or the sfc hand will be forced.

anyway... I figured since the "model movie" is more important than reality - so it seems ... - this should cheer some people up. lol

6 hours later and eastern NE is getting utterly destroyed by this whaling blizzard...

It was poorly worded because I ( of all people LOL ) was getting sick of writing at the moment. I meant he's good at some things and has managed to amass extraordinary wealth along the way. Sticking his self-righteous position into anything he chooses, because he is wealthy enough to do so as he pleases, is bad. I don't condone Twitter myself - no. Never have. Don't have an account, at behest of others too. Never will. I find it to be a glaring example of the dumbing down of general population - the plebeian echelons don't realize ( unwittingly so..) just how damaging that sort of pap on tap is to their mentality. They are being held in place by the great pacification - ... and the beauty of that is, when you don't use your mind, you lose your mind. That's true of any system in the nature of organic life. You know... it really is wonderful fodder for the cyber-punk, Sci Fi sub-genre as cinema or literature. Probably already been done at least indirectly with plots like the "Matrix" or maybe "1984" etc. In our reality, they are being dumbed down to inactive involvement by convenience and the addling dazzle of the display. And the more and more these kind of "lights" get turned on to fill the darkness of their ignorance, they become programmed to the bidding of corporation. That's a the book blurb right there - anyone wanna start turning phrases? We even experience something like that in here. We are completely obsessing and evacuating our time looking for some kind of joy fix we get from this preoccupation with weather models-turned into entertainment cinema. The gift of unstoppable human intelligence would be much much better served, honored, and capable, if people would learn how the f* this stuff works, instead. It's idealistic. Perhaps heavy-handed in some sense, too. And of course implying a virtuosity as a failure is always a touchy aspect - gets people triggered ( obvious psycho-babble tropes as to why). But the truth is, when we don't use our minds, we lose our minds.

Right ... the antithesis to how a warm pattern tends to promote BJs.

I'm very much agreeing on two aspects above: - the pattern changing may not pay out as the hopefuls want. I'm looking at this with guarded optimism... I'm with y'all. I certainly enjoy the big winter experience. However, trying to be objective ... there are too many examples of poorly performing longer term air, and/or air-sea coupled teleconnectors in recent years to ignore. Be it, the ENSO phases have observed as uncoupling at times. EPO's not lasting as long in any given negative phase state(positive), because the flow speed is causing unusual RW instability ... The machinery of the system is different ( leave it at that), enough so to not be as confident in any given intraseasonal pattern variance/projection. Having said all that... the AO projection has trended negative at CPC in recent days. Lot of spread, but every member in said spread is negative. The mean looks pretty depressed. So ... if the +PNA decays ... and then we see a new -EPO onset to reset the relay cycle/relationship between those two domain spaces, while the AO is negative, that's actually converging telecons maybe enough to overcome the above tendencies of lower performance. - X needs to go away. Elan Musk is doing great things for humanity - his sacking of that enterprise is not one of them.

If/when a Sudden SW intrusion takes place ... down-welling behavior is a tightly correlated aspect, with a lot of lag prior to AO response, 20+ days. Just pointing that out. Not trolling... but that may be unfortunate for January, because it could take the month. Here's a speculative aspect. I've come to find that the general noise of the planetary system can sometimes bury a SSW--> -AO. The AO may be trending negative prior to the advent of the total physical SSW manifold --> -AO forcing, making it difficult to parse it out of the ongoing hemisphere. Other times, there have been SSW --> -AO, and the temperature distribution over mid latitude N/A did not appear very effected. I liken that ( similar ) to how the MJO doesn't drive the weather pattern; it either constructively or destructively interferes. In other words, these are mechanisms that augment but don't dictate. I actually feel confident about all this because the histories bear it out. It's interesting because in this case, the AO is going negative well prior to any total time-dependent SSW ( should one occur in the first week of January). ....It does open the question as to how any would-be SSW would integrate the hemisphere if/when this progression above is already going on. I did something I seldom ever do, I looked over the Euro weeklies wrt to this subject matter..., as well as the GEFs extended. They were unremarkably flat-line around -.5 SD beyond D10 out deep into January - as opposed to the appeal of this CPC mean above. CPC employs the 500 mb g-pot hgt distribution, whereas other sources use the lower atmosphere wind flux for theirs. Uuusually these disparate methods come to tolerable equivalency. Sometimes either may be more representative of a given AO phase state. All this isn't enough headache ... No way, we're just getting started. The -AO could start dumping it's cold over on the Euro-Eurasian and Asia side of the hemisphere. In fact, if that is already occurring when Sudden SW goes on to down -well and augment the negative phasing further, it may "choose the path of least resistance" and physically lock in the status quo. Short version asks the question, does a -AO automatically mean much. No, it doesn't. It's certainly an interesting phenomenon, but proceed with caution.

It's kind of interesting... the critics of CC have been, thus far been, unilaterally wrong. the consensus, warning of CC ( ... not even qualifying it, just warning ) have if anything been objectively proven insufficient in timing, and/or magnitude - not only wrt those predictions, but observations of impact over the broad environmental global scale. Yet, the former group ... keeps attempting with what really comes off at this point to be stressing even AI to generate argument nuggets. Here's the thing, they don't appear to qualitatively be aware that those 'plausibility' discussion points are getting weaker and weaker - they keep using them regardless - sometimes with the same fervency.

Yeah It's a long shot. 06z GEFs degenerated the appeal in a weaker/suppressed direction. It's a mess, too. Not only squashing/weakening SE, too warm to snow. yuck

Oh I know. Ha. I noticed a couple days ago tho… The aerial expense of all that warm anomaly seemed to really be keyed into the inability for that trough to really deliver the cold in the lower troposphere, but that appeared secondary to the fact that there were too many short waves - it couldn’t resolve so it was causing a warm bias. About that time it started trying to consolidate this one around the 30th and that’s when we started noticing some incrementally colder solutions entering at least Pennsylvania New York State and western New England. Ever since it’s been a game of inches

Not sure that’ll turn around in time, but at least reinforce the cold

Decent trough coming down behind that too.

I posted that on the 18 Z… people don’t pay attention to these posts, do they lol it’s like a page or two ago… Granted there’s some snark there, but I was saying if we could just get that leading piece of shit out of the way that we would have a chance to do exactly what this run’s doing. we’ll see what happens. Obviously we’re gonna need other guidance to jump on board and would also be nice to have a little more decent looking.

It’s just continuing along the same tortured slow creeping trend of the last two days …