Typhoon Tip

Kevin … isn’t it past your bedtime ?

As long as you guys are clear and square on the fact that the models can be right about the pattern change, and we may still not get snow. In other words, snow does not adjudicate whether the pattern change forecast’ was successful or not.

It might even be the same system in principal… It’s a similar time range, so it fits in the Rossby argument. The telecon spread isn’t in favor of a coastal storm during that timeframe but then again, the telecon spread could also change between now and then. But yeah, if you’re going with the tenor of the season, and that whole Stockholm syndrome of not being able to visualize any other reality ha ha ha then sure.

Not sure about the 12 Z but the 0Z last night… The GGEM and euro models both had plumes of -30+ C at 850 mb as far south as nearly lake superior at one time or another in those operational runs. I figured it was a nod to the negative EPO didn’t really think about it beyond that because while probably true about cold loading the details of where and when precise spatial layouts and all that is obviously unknown at this range. But yeah, get that to turn the corner and dip down and there you go.

Does NWS do reanalysis on those when they know the thermometers broken ? That’s so egregious and it’s been going on so long I mean how many of these fucking sites do they have like this where they’re sinking around and letting them go; when is it going to affect the 30 year climate totals ? I mean Jesus Christ

Yeah... yeah, this should cheer everyone up

Yeah, it's not abundantly clear these warm intrusions are settling downward out in time. Meanwhile, ... we may have a -AO going on over the course of the next 45 days from other factors forcing the domain; I'm sure we'll be reading tweet after tweet after tweet connecting the two without that downwelling

Yeah ...I saw that. But, the wave spacing is really close to the 4-6th, which is real enough and from what I see, has been +trend in recency. If this latter aspect were not in play, I'd be more inclined to lean - not that I'm exactly leaning to begin with. haha. Too early Typically when we get these sort of contention/spacing -related looks, the lead ends up winning the debate. that is, honestly, more old school model performance-wise. Still, I'm not sure if at 9 day ( Jan 5) lead, the models can't swap those out. We'll see. I like the whole period of time so -

You want them now... but in terms of OHC and SSTs and all that? The western Pacific climatology makes their season open ended compared to the Atlantic Basin. It does contract to the SW - similar to the Atlantic - but it doesn't really shut down. The other thing - and this is purely John speculation haha ... - the typhoon recurving seems to really be after the mode of the circulation from the Indian Ocean to the Date Line are already transmitting a change around the hemisphere. The typhoon occurs because of that. The circuitry there is that the TC latency inject plume enters the circulation and gives the R-wave signature a boost - typically in the EPO domain and the ridge benefits which then in turn helps the cold loading into N/A. LOL, why ... is there a typhoon recurving? haven't checked

Well, this has triggered me to check. Firstly, I prefer to keep a D9-13 "signal" pretty coarse. It's even less deterministically useful at a range of 9 days (Jesus) just trying to get the deep tropospheric signal to emerge. When signal are still attempting to emerge ... that seems backward in an operational sense. Confidence should improve in the emergence side, first ... then, along the way ..sure, increase evaluation efforts with those details. So yeah - I guess we have different approach. Having said that, the 850 mb thermal layout on the 4th in the EPS is ample cold enough. I realize that is not the BL but the BL temperature and hydrostatic thicknesses mean almost nothing in the midst of the solar min with any sufficiently strong system penetrating this particular layout - I'm just not seeing a warm BL problem given these initial conditions I checked the other ens systems and they're not significantly different. I'm done looking ( for now) for reasons/philosophy of approach I just described above. So, we'll see - Look, your post "timing" was pounced in character, as though going after snow enthusiasts? haha. Lord knows that is a lot of fun. But, I don't really give a fuck if it rains or snows at this range. I care about being right and having insight on periods of interest. Having said that, these critical level thermal field projections (above) centered mid way through the 4th -6th are encouraging considering everything that is substantive from this range.

Yes or no to this ... I'm not personally implicating snow. I'm saying there enhancing indication for a system there. I will add that BL problems is endemic to the majority of D8-13 range 'signals' since 2015 really.

It's always been about Dec 28 - Jan 7ish for me. The fact that we're seeing some "hopes" ( for lack of better word) during said period of time may be more academic, but getting those hopes to overcome destructive physics - It's always an interesting quandary to me how you can 'off-and-on' a storm appeal and then ultimately have it occur(not occur). It means there were back ground physics for both in play - what decides which rules out and which rules in, that is a fascination to me. anyway, yup - wouldn't be surprised if the 4th-6th because to add to your statement .. an aspect of that popularity is that it's been in +trend

Jan 4th - 6th

There is a large abrupt and intense thermal presentation coming from the GFS cluster. In fact, by day 9 there’s already positive anomalies near the ceiling of the chart from the 2 HPA level all the way down in altitude clear to the 70. Too early to tell if that is going to be a downward propagation.

It’s interesting in that day 8 to 13 range how different the flavor of the GEFs are to the EPS. It’ll be interesting to see which side caves.

From what I’m seeing the EPS is your best hope ens mean through Jan 10. The other two aren’t horrible per se but the EPS is in a different implication space - It carries the -EPO and appears to even resurge the block during the first week … and has established the continental loading conveyor. Cold look given time. The operational version wants a more consolidated jet downstream of the EPO which causes the jet to stay west. The behavior of the EPS suggests split flow however as PAC wave space (quite impressive for this range actually) gets injected underneath the Alaskan sector. Meanwhile… running over top the northern branch of the split downstream would probably keep it colder from the Great Lakes to New England compared to the operational version which would have a flat ridge there. I mentioned the way to combat the -EPO warm pulse through the east is to bifurcate the streams - it’s interesting that EPS structures that way but the op goes a less split direction. For winter enthusiast the upshot of these differences is that of the two the EPS is likely to be more accurate beyond day 7. Kind of goes without saying really… I would be surprised if the euro op looked the same on the next run.

Most Decembers between 1979 and the year 2000. Sure … not sure why we’re using a bad December as a metric for the rest of the year based on our climate is all I’m saying

Not a terrible summary of the next 3 weeks.

I’m willing to bet cloud climo is better up there than down here tho. Just anecdotally … most BD butt plugs dont crest the Green/Whites. … ‘Magine if BD strata was undercasting when with the eclipse passed over ? That’d be an interesting optic. But based upon how this winter is gone so far anyway, pretty high confidence we’re gonna have a major winter storm with heavy snow going on all over the path of the ecliptic on April 8 2024 - so long as there’s not been any snow before that day.

Yeah ... a comet impact. Also, so your previous re the MJO phase 5-7... Those are shit phases for us - we want those crapping out. Right now, we are in strong phase 1, which should correlate to a +PNA and well..that's what's going on. There may some pattern lag with these MJO phase spaces too - so there that element of uncertainty. Having said all that... I don't think the MJO's doing jack shit. The analysis recently wrote that the MJO is actually in destructive interference with the pass through the IOD region, and .. blah blah I don't think it's really doing much anyway.

You can see the albeit transient (hopefully...) -EPO warm up attempted over the east in the extended Euro. I mentioned this yesterday, that this +PNA ( that will apparently fail to do jack shit as it comes in and out of mode), may relax into a warm up toward Jan 10. The ridge (if it actually all happens that way) at the tail end of the run may be too flat (as is). Assuming the -EPO does sag hgts west, first ( so yar, there are some assumptions): Warmth will also depend on whether there is confluence over Ontario..etc. But you can see now the ridge over eastern Alaska/NW Terr., with heights plumbed through the Rockies, and at least a flat ridge ejected E. Sorry - I'm not making this stuff up. I mean, will see what the ens look like but ... failing +PNA relaying into a -EPO burst ... yeah, it was/is pattern changing but I guess no where in the words "pattern" and "changing," does the phrase guaranteeing snow actually exist.

Not sure where the "car seat" per se comes from - I never actually spoke that specifically. I don't know anything about car seats - it is what it is. It was only how a parked car on a sun abundant afternoon noticeably warms in the interiors much more so beginning on or close to Feb 10 every year. It was palpable. Some warming on the 5th is abruptly a lot of warming on the 11th. I had noticed that long ago, and every year through the decades it was dependable. 'Oh. Right. It's Feb 11 - that's why it's so hot in here.' Later I learned of the solar max, solar min, and the solar transition periods that shoulder either. They occur roughly 91.5 days in length.. The solar min is November 8th to February 10. The solar transition 1 starts on Feb 10 and runs out to May 10. The solar max kicks in on May 10 and runs out to Aug 8, whence the negative transition goes from then to Nov 8. If you think about it, first days of any season as they are currently defined seem more so arbitrary when considering these physical facts about the celestial mechanics of Earth and Sun orbital relationship. "Solar Winter" is half over now... I just thought it interesting that the suns ability to warm enclosures seemed to coincide so closely with that official onset of the transition 1 period, Feb 10. I've also noticed that snow banks get eaten back even on cold days, much more so around that time. This is all of course latitude dependent. At 42.5N these period are closer to evenly temporally distributed but S or N, these periods are longer or shorter respective of season. What's really at stake is that crossing the Feb 10 date, tugs chode hairs of those basking in the snow climate narratives and statistics of mid Feb. LIke ... here we are supposed to be enjoying our winter punch and this guy comes along and interferes with our narrative? Must seem like deliberate turd mixing - how dare. LOL Years and years ago it became abundantly clear to me that early performing winters, those that coincide more closely with the thick part to solar min period, were a lot more for aspects like retention and breaking records and stuff. That's why I like my winters "front loaded" - rare as that may be. These days, with seasonal lag and shoulder smearing everything's all fucked up anyway so it's becoming more moot.

Lol... awesome. 6 days until January, and already the January thread has canceled January. Man, the addiction crisis in here may have reached a historic fever.

There may be a problem in qualifying the outlook as "vastly" this or that. It's more encouraging for winter enthusiasts. Not speaking to you directly here ... but it may be useful to not 'color' expectations with adjectives. ha

I agree ... more or less. It comes down to the old concept over how statistics belie the truth ... Ever heard, 'there are lies, there are damn lies, then there are statistics' ? That's actually a loaded sentiment, because it can be applied for a lot of different contexts. But the gist is that real-time experience and statistics don't always share the same space.