Typhoon Tip

I will say that I lean a lot of ballast in the direction of RONI studies ... Perhaps a personal bias for the fact that I conceptualized something quite similar many years back. That said, it's probably got blurred forcing boundaries. Thresholds here and there, that have to be estimated, or less than discrete in general. Who knows? Right.... like, 20 ... 30% of the ENSO warm legs are chopped off, because ENSO is wading in a pissy world already ... making a 7' monster more like a 6'2" tall guy. What's funny is that the 6'2" guys tend to actually jump the highest - ... fun metaphor.

Too much attempt to target specific oceanic regions as causal in x-y-z pattern tendencies. This is now a relatively new faux methodology that's coming about in social media and Tweets from big reputations, and it's not right. Perhaps not the intent, ... but it sure comes off that way. If we wanna really skeptic as scientist ... the whole flapping oceanic planet is +1.2C on average or whatever it was as of last check. Pretty much in every direction and region, save for small seemingly irrelevant cool offset upweller chimneys. And that would seem intuitively a big red flag not to trust any of it - worth of empirical test and geo-physical review.

This appears to be a pan-dimenson hemispheric scaffold change. Every index from Japan to Greenland is connected to it, and the PNA is the most telling. It is correcting from -1 to almost +3 SD in a matter of mere days. To mode switch a domain space that size that quickly is highly unusual. Some sort of correction event in the heart of the winter would be dialed up by either a series of imports, or ... one giant ordeal. ... In early October, this is unfortunate for storm enthusiasts. The ambient baroclinicity is absent given to seasonality. We may plumb truck loads of 500 mb potential into the 100 to 90 W longitude with limited means to really drill it into the lower troposphere. There is some attempt on the first in the series that gets tangled up with Phillipe's guts. The GFS in particular goes from 990s to 970s mb drifting west of Toronto.. btw, I'd watch for a backside isallobaric wind burst when that bag of low pressure bombs exiting N across C/NNE in GFS recent solutions. Euro's been tamer.

It's probably dietary/metabolic ..which can be related to hormonal changes beyond mid life but its just as likely the Americana/western civil diet needs to be fixed.

haha... sounds important!

Man...that whole 500 mb period between D6 and the end of this operational GFS is like blocking assignment rehearsal for a winter play. Hopefully that repeats after Thanks Giggedy

I want it like today, until after Halloween. Then it can whoop ass winter all it wants ...

We've been getting over top high pressure over the past 3 weeks. Heh... only trouble is, at 560+ hydrostats

There really is a very big HA signal ( I wonder how she feels to know her initials are codified haha) ... Typically, that signal is more correlative in winter ... It's not only not winter, but it is early in autumn in a warmer than normal world - bit of an intriguing incongruency there. That said, there is multi-guidance/ensemble derived whopper +PNA whiplash hemisphere coming at the end of this week. A big restoring event might materialize despite the seasonality of the correlation, just because the shear magnitude of the PNA modality is so huge (supposition). The Phillipe aspect is an add-in, but it's not really what this hemisphere is going to be about. More like a mouse that happen to run across a path intersection with an angry elephant stampede.

2 possibilities... 1 it stays weak and exposed and coughing up a CB once in awhile. This may allow it to get farther west and sneak under the steering level. Then, the trough amplifying suddenly from the northwest attempts a Sandy gobble in. But it would probably by more a rain thump and wind on the E side of NE Maine. Too specific, though 2 it still responds to steering and starts moving more N. In this version ...it doesn't get west of 70 W - not without a wholesale change in the deep layer tropospheric vectors.

It's 85 and dry-ish... I don't think we had a temperature this warm and a DP this low, together, since May... Doesn't seem so, anyway. And that's what sucks. 80 to 85 with DP of 58 is like utopian. 85/74 with roads that can't even dry in the shade because of all that atmospheric loaded water ... and high temp no less, may as well have pig's testicles draped around one's neck. So this happens at the very tail end - not to be a debbie but that kind of blows. sorry it does.

Unlikely.

yeah you can see why the Euro's numbers are robust... IF its synoptic bare any resemblance to that. R/entrance jet over eastern-upstate NY with exceptional divergence vectors with an arriving 850 mb PWAT jet running up it's ass. Someone along the spine of the Greens might redux what happened earlier in the year.

Been warning, yup... It's weird, though, to see a typhoon careen west through the lower China Sea, a stymied MJO bouncing off a wall trying to emerge in 8, ... while the PNA surges to a very high metric...? The first two correlate. The 3rd does not correlate with the first 2.... Given the spatial domain (girth of mass fields) of of those manifolds, that argues for an unstable hemisphere. Interesting

Sneaky best diurnal d(T) of the year and possibly longer... At least for me - was not expecting mid 40s last night ( tho ORH above the radiation inversion stayed at a relative toasty 53). But it's 83 here at the moment, closing in a 40 F spread. KFIT 46 to 81 so far

Yeah...seems the operational versions ( Euro too - ) are attempting to counter-signal their own ensemble means. interesting - I did warn folks that there may be some 'model magnification' going on. There was speculation about upslope snow in the extended but I figured it would depend on whether there was that amplitude bias commonly found in the D8+ range. That all said, the trough depth and colder implication could come back, but this tendency for 'moon rise' ballooning the features out at the temporal horizon is like that in all guidance - I think it's an unavoidable emergence of the technology at this point.

I've read of speculation that a kind of whip-lash at planetary scales (... like 'thermal elasticity') recoiled when the La Nina basal state crossed some threshold on its way to its demise. And then en masse the entire system snapped very warm. I don't know if I like that hypothesis. I don't hate it ... but, I don't see how that happens mechanically. It certainly sounds intriguing from a kind of Science Fictional passage along a holocaust theme. There are no mechanisms in the atmospheric 'organic' mechanics to generate/add heat as such. Heat has to be either given or taken through the evaporation/condensation of water vapor, or, through irradiance power of the sun. The sun spends equal time on either side of the Equator. Evaporation and condensation is effected by heat, but in either case, that state is static relative to the rate in which these global temperature surges took place - that doesn't seem to add up. It's really weird... My immediate napkin logic wants to suggest that the El Nino is buried inside these changes that have been observed over these last 9 months - and by buried, I mean subsumed by them. In other words, not the cause. The last time there was a global temperature response that 'seemed' to be connected physically to a warm ENSO that even comes close to these last 9 months, was 1998 ( a "super nino" event). But here's the thing ... that global spike in temperatures lagged the ENSO peak by some 6 months. If using just the SST metric, according to CPC, the 1997-1998 El Nino peaked around November/Dec of 1997; the thermal resonance was noted in the spring of 1998. The warmth we are observing all over the planet, air and sea, predates the onset of the El Nino. That's why I wonder if the current arriving mode of ENSO is really driving this warmth at all. It seems the warmth we have seen materialize since May has/is engulfed any El Nino to the point where geo-physically parsing out how much is contributory to how much is tantamount to not likely to be determined with a whole helluva lot of confidence. The causality/circuitry would have to include too much supposition for certitude. OR, here's an idea... there is indeed a separate systemic response that has caused all this warming, and the ENSO has yet to add too it.

"getting" ?

Yeah I dunno. It may be that those decimal ranges in those different domain spaces happen to span at less than the animation source/authored intervals. In a sense, still rising but at a very slow pace? Does rate of change even matter? But, then again, those kind of smaller movements within established intervals ... I mean, weren't the interval conventions chosen because they are significant? Either way, these decimals spanning a whole 30 days ... they may signify something more but it strikes me as noise. I suppose it is possible that they represent potential that lurks, so to speak. Maybe in that sense the system is in wait of some forcing to show up and then we get some surge that realizes said potential - Just observations/thoughts.

"...French weather authority Meteo-France said the September temperature average in the country will be around 21.5 degrees Celsius (70.7 degrees Fahrenheit), between 3.5C and 3.6C above the 1991-2020 reference period.... " https://phys.org/news/2023-09-european-countries-september-temperature.html These local time-scale surges in T are notably increasing in frequency around the world. And, they are about as straight forward an empirical proof for the actual acceleration of climate change ( meaning that is speeding up) as there can exist. During this last 20 to 30 years of the ongoing science and debate ... it's often been cited (rightfully so) that climate change moves at the pace of decimals. What is interesting is that these increasing occurrence rates, they are manifesting at whole degrees or even multiples. So while the decimals aspect may still be the case, how many of these regional explosions of warmth can we add to the computation?

I'm not buried in sub-surface this or ONI/RONI that ...but that CPC cartoon abv doesn't look like a strengthening warm ENSO signal.

Fake warmth lol

I've noticed this with smoke ( which makes sense considering atmospheric mechanics...). It tends to alleviate as the sun climbs. The sky's less pall and more blue(ing) this late morning, being consistent with that observation. 71 .. .already vastly different appeal out there than that shit show that last 2 or 3 days. Not even close. I don't know if October ends up above normal. The +PNA in multi-guidance source teleconnector projections is real. We'll see. But, there is also an AO that goes neutral-negative as we hit mid month, so now were converging cooler signals. That all said, ... even telecon canvas can be less than stable in autumn(spring), so ..we'll wait on that. But I would start with neutral and lean neggie pistol to head. That's an abrupt change, too. We could go from mid 80s (bd notwithstanding) to 50 with night freeze headlines toward the beginning of next week. Shot across the bow but on the steeper side/steroid version.

Yeah... my resentment of that is because I hate that expression. Temperature is temperature. Tell you what...someone dies from exposure to radiational cooling some night - let's ask them how they feel about its fakeness. Lol. No but I get what that means in the euphemism all that, but it's really hard to fake heat after the Equinox. We have to have some pretty significant mechanics at large scale really providing a scaffolding to press temps upward, because the sun above 40 N is getting fragile.