Typhoon Tip

Is it possible that some of that 'success' interpretation is attributable to increasing integrated PWAT that's objectively measured everywhere. I mean shy of invoking the sensitive climate topic ... part of that CC is the increased WV loading, and it's definitively being registered in deposition rates. Anyway, just wondering if we took system A from 1920 ( say..) and ran it through modeling/reanalysis now, would that same system be more prolific.

Yeah, it's straight-up a wave addition or not addition taking place between the GFS vs Euro respectively. Not sure why the EPO relay is different - that's what I was after in describing the original bifurcation stuff. There's excruciatingly tedious albeit crucially important differences in what exactly is sent along and ...well, there we go

Yeaaah... I'm not gonna say 'unlikely' from this vantage, but ... that feature, albeit important in general, appears to be handled similarly between the GEFs and EPS... It's running out ahead and dematerializing in the compression gauntlet over the SE. (that analysis can and probably should be refined further, however) However, the N/stream additional S/W power at mid (500 mb) level 72hours diving S out of western Canada in the GFS that the Euro doesn't have - sort of resembles an 'intermediate jet stream' feature. The GFS phases ... which leads to more power getting relayed E than the Euro, which doesn't perform this phenomenon because it doesn't "see" that middle stream mechanical influence. Here... I just didn't want to get too detailed in the previous post .. but all this is ultimately coming from the complex handling over the EPO domain. What is actually going to get sent down river determines what's tumbling over the dam

I posted this sequence below ( from the GFS to make the point -) in the NYC thread. I feel fairly confident the majority of sensitivity leading up to this event is coming down to this flow bifurcation phenomenon that is illustrated ... This handling appears to be the source/origin for the S/W in contention - there is likely either errors in sampling relative to either idea ... OR, the physics after the fact is exposing one or the other as having an an issue with ballast - how much recedes vs gets injected downstream ... 1 2 3

This entire handling discrepancy between guidance systems strikes me as data ingest problems. I've posted this over in the NE thread - but the source/orgin for this event is not arriving via canonical Pacific routing but is actually an inject from SPV decay over the NW Terriorties/eastern EPO domain. It's not abundantly clear that is either well sampled, or even natively handled ( physically..) in the guidance given that processing headache ... 1 2 3

We should go look at the source/origin of that event's governing mechanics, and see if we can identify any similarities - not even analogs ... but by concept. I mean if data sampling can [possibly] be identified even regardless synoptic scaffolding. Here's a thought: the Euro has this 4-d variable correction/smoothing system that is really why it was "Dr No" for so many years. Letting model physics run naked out in time will result in more boners because their junk flops around a lot more, whereas the Euro "corrects" those by tucking them in a jock-strap that's really purposefully designed to limit fractal from taking over and modulating out in time... Kidding obviously, but the point is ... the Euro may be "over correcting" because "if" it's not getting the proper input, it "assumes" it's errant and removes it. I'm just baffled how there's so little in- between here.

Yup ... What just saying the same thing to Seymour' ... I just can't help but think about the Boxing Day event in 2010. That one was on fumes even mere 48 or 60 hours ahead and out of nowhere we were left to trust the NAM ( ETA?) ...which seemed to be the first to pick it back up. But even then it was dubious because the NAM had ( and may still have) a NW bias over the western Atlantic as one of many in it's various idiotic charms. Then the 06z Euro marched back... what? and all the sudden, 12z runs start pouring in big event out of seemingly nowhere. That was an event that had considerable presentation when in the deeper middle range but was lost for 2 or even 3 days...

It strikes me as just missing data. I wouldn't be shocked if any one of these guidance that currently are showing upper-moderate impact...etc etc, offer up a cycle of whiff, too. It's like an either or thing? You know? either the model's got the data = storm. don't get the don't = not storm. Seems less about handling and amounts in this case. That much definitive difference is suspicious one way or the other, though

I know you don't ... I'm just broadcast there to the general resenting tone over the subject matter.

Yeah, I mean ...I can't see any other cause of/for the stark discrepancy between - this is/are the wholesale guidance machinery of either, pulled almost diametric. The GEFs? That would be neat result if that 964 MB low on Nantucket Island member of the GEFs verified, whilst the D4 EPS was doing this. Or vice versa

Not to push my agenda like a shining dick tip but ... I did warn that these ENSOs were suffering some kind of negative interference going back years at this point. I think it's just too big to wrap heads around or something but whatever ... we're seeing it more objectively/coherently in observations et al now, so it is what it is. And yes ...CC has something to do with it - sorry

I'm not surprised the 06z EPS, frankly. I suspected it wouldn't be much of a d-drip savior just yet, because of all guidance systems ... the Euro appears to be the least dispersive amongst its members.

I really think folks should pay attention to this ... "I think the Euro cluster overall is missing data. I'm noticing that the source/origin for much of this thing's S/W mechanics are not coming from the Pacific typology - they are materializing out of the decay of a small SPV situated over the NW Territories up amid the eastern EPO domain. Look at the ICON behavior - again...not using that model, the point is made. We vary the sampling of where this S/W's guts actually materialize from just 'that' much you get that extraordinary single run-to-run variance of size and amplitude. " It's at least worth it to venture the question over sufficient data sampling over that region. Not that the open expanse of the Pacific oceanic echo chamber is much better ... but this system's sensitively appears almost - from what I am seeing - entirely with the method/how/how-much-so gets injected from that region.

...the flip side of which means, the El Nino is not fully coupling the hemisphere

Guys ...ha, I get it - but this thread does not intend to cover the 20th.

Yeah I got your point - it was an interesting one, actually... I thought the same thing. Sometimes we forget an early model suggestions because it gets lost in daily arguments among other guidance with variations on type ...size, amplitude... everything. Then, get in closer and that early notion returns. I'm not saying we're getting a 965 mb bomb on Martha's Vineyard from this - at least one Euro run about 4 days ago, if anyone's forgotten. But, there are a couple members of the GEFs in that range, in the spread from both 00z and 06z. I think the Euro cluster overall is missing data. I'm noticing that the source/origin for much of this thing's S/W mechanics are not coming from the Pacific typology - they are materializing out of the decay of a small SPV situated over the NW Territories up amid the eastern EPO domain. Look at the ICON behavior - again...not using that model, the point is made. We vary the sampling of where this S/W's guts actually materialize from just 'that' much you get that extraordinary single run-to-run variance of size and amplitude.

I'll have to catch up on this thread ( was back on page 3 ) ... but, just that it's peculiar how the EPS backed off slightly and the operational Euro ...completely devoid on this signal, considering that the Euro source/cluster was actually the first guidance to even illustrate this thing back 3 or 4 days ago.. Now, the GGEM, which had zip clue all along has this amped up snow to wet nasty coastal over Worcester. I rather like the 00z GFS, only because of the compromise between the Euro and GGEM. Haven't seen the UKMET. The ICON when from essentially a 95% whiff to something similar to the GGEM between it's 00z and 06z run. Meanwhile, the GEFs have some scary bombs near Martha's Vineyard. The next question is ... what the fuck is going on -

I don't know about the 'big boy' heh... but yeah, I added to that post and discussed those Euro runs

I'll tell you, this is near the ceiling for 500 mb mechanics in a negative tilt. Look at that 150 kts leaving the Del Marva, placing SNE right in the cross-hairs of the left exit region - meanwhile.. .the 300 mb level winds are anomalously strong with hints at entrance region situated over NH/ME Whatever the QPF is on those intervals from HFD to CON you may as well go ahead and assume a meso band or two destroys that estimate. I mean ... this run in a vacuum. I have to tell you though, that is the most powerful S/W ( seems to almost be two in there possibly caught in bed together ) I've seen in quite some time passing over that particular region. 150 f'n kts. That right there is how you overcome the Miami rule - turn the S/W itself into a comet impact. Also, what's interesting here is the lack of S/stream in this lead up. The Euro had more ...but utterly abandoned the N/stream on this last 12z run... It should be Noted that the Euro at one time had a mid 960s mb juggernaut near the Islands... I am thinking about this GFS run ... 'cause, that's what dweebs do. heh. but, if we were to introduce a S/stream (more so) into that sort of junction ... yeeeeeah

Not that it means much bur the operational position is on the western limb of that spread - so tfwiw ... it may be easier to ask for it to slip E than to ask all that ens ballast to go toward it

You know this.. but we don't sweat it at this range -

Evolving situation but the signals been in place (actually) for many days using pure numerical telecon spread. +d(PNA) is already underway leading the period in question. Slow rise...combined with the apparent velocity soaking of the local hemisphere may have caused the GFS cluster to rush things (heredity of progressive bias in the product suite?) to the point where it smears the event machinery to where it can't happen in erstwhile model cycles.. However, with improvements in the recent EPS ens mean/with spread noted, now beginning to 'convince' the GEFs (farther below) (...notwithstanding also the impressive operational trends) I feel there's enough to thread this event with confidence for something. It's being placed during a time and space where at least the telecon's have been projecting we're entering a more favorable pattern foot. Speed of the flow is still an issue, tho. Noting the 00z EPS mean and all spread on the western side.. The erstwhile GEFs had been almost entirely absent with this event/time frame ... but rather abruptly on the 12z ( perhaps arguably started on the 6z), we see a coherency with also spread favoring/correction vectoring toward more... There's also a bit more of a conceptual/spatial aspect, where typically a Lakes cutter ( in this case two, interestingly enough...) is often followed by a planetary wave decay-induced -NAO response that drills the successive storm track(s) farther E. So that lends to the general scope of what's going on through this current 2 or 3 weeks synoptic adventure. Noted that there is an off and on signal for 20th/22nd .. this does not cover that period.

Yeah been saying this for years actually. It’s not even just anecdotal, either. If we think about H.A.’s statistical approach, which focused on the precipitation distribution/anomalies as they correlate to index mode vs modality ..etc, her conclusions were always that the primary loading pattern is the PNA … The NAO was less correlated. That at minimum argues that blocking down stream is a dubious driver. … NAO -to me - is a wave decay dumpster down stream of the N/A continent interacting with the termination/eastern end of the Pacific R-wave transmission. In other words it’s indicative … not the conductor

heh... ah, just so's we're clear. I wasn't intending to forecast that? I was just musing - some sardonic overtones. Most of that was just so that I could arrive to the "climate wokism" - I think that's funny. Non-binary climate is great

YES! glad someone else noticed the subsume mechanics going on there. I love that type - I know I mention it often enough but ... it is real and is how/why the top shelf events. There's some subjectivity to that. Like the 18-24" in 7 hour Dec 23 1997 event, which was not forecast like AT ALL... But, we mean the big synoptic history deals. Anyway, it's a long way off but ... the Euro did try to do this yesterday in the range on at least one run, too. It could be we are heading into hemisphere that has some of that tendency in the footprint. However, I see aspect related to too much basal velocity in the flow as neggie factor. interesting