Typhoon Tip

Some parts to move around but doable at 10 days ( lol ) ... But the tail end of this Euro run is clearly attempting a subsume phase, which are among the most powerful cyclogen mechanism we can find - other than the extraordinarily rare triple stream phases. 1993 March is whopper example of this latter rarity. The Cleveland Super Bomb in Jan 1978 I think was one too. 1978 Feb back here in the E was a two stream but it was on 'roids because it married a weak Miller A response into a Miller B/capture. Kind of a freak Anyway, that much SPV dislodging is interesting. I think the 17th ( or is it 16th now?) is in play but it was likely destined to low/middling system. The phase change of the +d(PNA) is time dependent. It changes -1 SD to +1 over about 10 day span... That's not exactly a huge restoral forcing suggestion when it's that gradual. It's intuitive to think of that as a series of events rather than the big dawg. .. Just thinkin' out loud. That's all predicated on the assumption that current projections don't change ... eek

I'm behind on this thread but ... it was actually a better run for us than the last because this keeps it pure snow for everyone. That last one was a deeper more powerful solution granted, but it ends going over the IP bombs during max which for snow geese ...heh

The only time I've ever cared about retention is when we are trying to break the 'surviving snow depth' record. by that I mean, 30" of stable pack depth. It's hard to exceed that number - incidentally ... I've come to find over the years ... about 7 or so of them, that when nearing that number we start getting weight settling this, or the errant rainy event there. Even in the best years that's true. There are two years that I have seen 36" ... one was 1996 prior to the January thaw, and then there 42" I had near the end of February 2015. Otherwise 30 seems to be the tough threshold

yeah, it'd be more like which signal is successful - which is probably all that matters for this engagement ... - as opposed to which exists. they both do. i'm just taking them one at a time. this period has a lot of facets to overcome, despite the telecon beacon. the "Miami rule" being one of them. the fact that the SPV is excessively too deep over eastern Canada - possibly owing to a suppressive variant of the -NAO ( or it may be a chicken vs egg deal between the two). western heights are an interesting conundrum. there's a tussle going on between the EPO handling and the lower latitude PNA. typically the former precedes the latter ( natural progression of those mass fields) in lag correlation. but what's happening here is the -EPO is popping off in 2 to 3 day impulses. it's sending a negative height signal down the spine of the Rockies ... meanwhile all that is happening, the PNA is in +d(PNA). those are competing forces - not personally sure how that gets resolved but it's probably at minimum a negative interference - which could also be an entirely false scenario if the models are just not handling the EPO domain very well. gee, when has that ever happened.

the issue with that isn't really an issue - thank goodness ... - because we're still talking about 7 days. but admittedly, it's not a good optic. it's a problem that the 17th has had in all these Euro solutions that are trying to push for that event - interesting consistency there when even its own ensemble mean refuses to emerge a better signal for that time and space. anyway, there isn't enough +SPP situated NW of New England. There is in fact on the 00z probably a modest -SPP there ( "SPP" meaning surface pressure pattern). the 500 mb evolution is structured sufficiently for any fast moving Miller A or Miller A/B hybrid to move E of Boston, but the surface synoptics being what they are is causing the evolution to jump over and favor the left exit/entrance regions of the jet mechanics aloft. the sfc pressure layout aspects et al can change in 7 days, so we'll see there. even a modest amount of PP correction may make the difference between a low cutting just enough to ruin the party, or keeping it east... but, the ens ? heh

That ending frame on that Euro is an overbearing -NAO suppression look. That kind of rock bottom -NAO is actually not what people want - or shouldn't if they know what's what. My guess would be that it is better to have models signal the elephant's ass at D10 than on D4 ...In other words, it's unlikely to verify like that.

that's what we're waiting on.. imho i mean, these euro runs fancy a black holes in the d6-10 range, particularly the latter half of that. as you know. the telecon spread wants a big deal between w va and NS routing - we're talking after the cutters here

NAM has 44 kts at LGA, mid way up the boundary layer at 6z ... 36kts at Logan. Also, LI's are -1 and 0 respectively (lifted index)

Oh, I think it's legit from what I've outlined and still is evidenced et al. I'll probably be starting a thread for that as "early monitoring" - or the like - fairly soon.

It's a good approach for the time frame in question - not intending to condescend but keep it from orbit for now... I've also been discussing the 15th+ period as a time that fits the canonical teleconnector correlation/distribution, for cold eastern storm genesis over the eastern continent. These Lakes cutters in the foreground ... they may or may not be influenced by a steadily increasing -NAO exertion over time, but likely not in time to save the winter enthusiasts from a frustrating tour de fault in that regard. Really very impressed by the immense power suggestive by mere 2.5 day-long cycle between very deep and large winter cyclones through the Lakes. Typically a 975 mb humdinger leads an interval of quiescence - not happening is intriguing. An amazing hemisphere really... You know, it's not impossible that someone between Chi town and Indy would receive upwards of 30" between the two events or more, a significant percentage of their seasonal cryo quota spanning 5 days. But it doesn't end there... the third in the series - at least in so far as the Euro - is apparently responding to the forcing of said telecon projections in then running up/or off the EC with another very deep solution. ...All these solutions ...there, here ...everywhere, are subjective to model attenuation-correction tendencies. But ... sufficed it is to say, when they are all sub 980 and even sub 970 mb, they can shed the 20% and still be charming. Anyway, long of the short - I'd be watching the 16-17th (still). It's really not that far away. We've started threads for early monitoring over less impressive signals. It may just be a matter of time before something significant through the 20th (even) comes over the ens horizon - if the 17th fails.

Maybe there's some conditioning of thinking because one of these wind transport events actually did mix down earlier this season but ... that shouldn't "sway" ( pun intended to annoy - ) anyone anyone's thinking. We still have a lower verification score card when it comes to wind events. You have to look at these situations from scratch/uniquely. The environmental set up this time is different, and the differences that are directly observable are limiting factors. Snow pack in the interior will be melting in gob fulls but not before most likely limiting mixing. This system as synoptically handled in all guidance is moving too fast to overcome that. I'm also wondering if the SSTs from the Bite around the horn are getting cold enough now to impose inversion, which would probably by extension keep this as an elevation thing.

Very active pattern the next two weeks... Suspect we may repeat these colorful headline days a few times through the 20th. Scott's more right than re the 15-17th. Current/available indicators have then better as probabilistic for winter enthusiasm. These events in the foreground are in successive order encountering steadily more exertion - apparently - from building/west limb -NAO expression in the flow. The 10th is locked. It's a primarily a wind and flood headliner SW of CT. Much NE of NYC-PVD-BOS line, I have doubts about wind realization with new snow pack and boundary layer drag both impeding mixing. But it gets mild and melts and we rain, nonetheless. Brevity may keep the flood concern to just smaller tributaries and any ice clog back ups. The 13/14th is still trying to lean more coastal commitment, while the ballast of the primary maintains and runs up through Ontario. But that hesitation on the lead side will probably allow for a start up snow/mix over to ice for a time - at this range we can't be certain over how long that would impact/amt, but it's not a "snow/mix storm" either without more changes. But out around 15th+ with unknown ending ... the +d(PNA) has been well underway - I outlined much of that teleconnector business yesterday/above. Although it is the so-called clown range, the emergence of Euro and/or GGEM ( different structures...) are non-zero wintry potentials; they are better seated than mere noise typically found at this range, due to these super synoptic indicators weighting the dice there some.

Winterwolf loves this word so I'll use it again here just for him. The canonical teleconnector correlations, when balancing all projects, is very closely matched to that date range you got there - from what I have been observing as of late. There is a new +d(PNA) ( actually started emerging 4 days ago and is above 0SD as of today) running out through the 20th. That does not appear to be mere noise. There is limited spread in native sources, and they all have the positive delta. Meanwhile, the EPO is tanking rather abuptly negative during this week. We are thus relaying a -EPO into a +d(PNA). That is a cold loader pattern into middle latitude continent. The scale/amount of +d(PNA) is on the order of -1.5 SD to +.5 ...so ~ 2 SD total correction - which is a subtantive amount over an index domain that is very large. It can be dispersed unevenly, granted, but I am noticing a tendency in the spatial ens means, to raise heights over the open Pac Basinc between Hawaii and California. This is typically the type a signal that would lead me to start an extended lead thread for storm threat over eastern America - I'm holding back in deference to seasonal trends. 13th is a bit early for this discussion, but that one is actually in contention for other forcing - in my mind - due to the uncertainties with the western limb variant of the -NAO expression. We are < D7 but ... mm there's still tendencies to smear that E in some of these operational runs. so we'll see on that. It's possible to run a Lakes Cutter and have the low unravel over western Quebec given the -d(NAO) is still in formulation and the exertion isn't matured. Kind of race there - not sure that can be confidently refuted so it's easier to assume a GEFs/EPS blend there.

You mean like the one we just had these last 3.87 years

For those interested ... the 12z Euro does pass a burst of WAA snow through the area re the 10th system. N of the CT/RI border with Mass...but you know what? The entire frontal tapestry of that thing is moving so fast, by the time the region goes over to heavy rain it's over with in a matter of 2 hours. You may actually add some snow, NW of along/N of HFD-BOS... before matting down. But point being, it's moving so fast that removal of the entire ground snow appears less likely.

1/4 mi vis in this band at the moment.

The transformation from this early a.m. to the mid day has been a joy to observe. When I awoke around dawn, there was a subtle but still coherent impression of blue through the veil of flurries and misty sky. But now it's thick. Dimmed daylight and gelid out there. Reminds me of some of those scenes in "The Shining" Passing 9" total - at the rate its coming down now and judging by rad extrapolation etc... probably we're adding inches to this affair. I decided to wait on shoveling out the berm at the base of the driveway. Apparently, our town hired another moron, because this idiot's gone and plowed from the non-residential side, toward the driveways. I mean ... really? Can't that just be sort of automatically noticeable? Now we all have 3 ft road urine snow solidifying into a wall that separates our cars from the road. And undoubtedly... they'll soon re enforce their stupidity with another pass.

Daylight dimming in the last hour. Sky darkened as this moderate steady stuff kicked in. 27 F Vis about .75 mi 9"

Yeah, I just noticed the ICON joining the GGEM there with that forced secondary. But right - ICON. Unless they've upgraded that model, I gave it a try two seasons ago and decided there was no value add

Anyway... beyond snow/winter agenda ... those two events would likely lead to some flooding concerns. If folks want/need/look for headlines in general, that's certainly on the table too. As is at this time in the GFS.

Two aspects about that which are under-the-radar strange. I mean ... if you didn't know any better - But, the storm on the 10th and the storm on the 13th, shouldn't track along the same path in canonical synoptic meteorology. The typical framework/climatology is that each storm tracks east of the predecessor. It's not impossible, but just more typically speaking. The other aspect is interesting... The storm on the 13th can't go anywhere. So it it bombs toward S Ontario and then smears east. That's the exertion of the -NAO ... Which by the way ( you know all this - ) the -NAO ( west limb variant) storm track is actually S of Ontario, OV to MA. Because of these two facets, the entire frame up from the guidance is anomalous one... Handing anomalies beyond D6 is negotiable anyway, but given those two facets above I'd suggest winter enthusiasts still pay attention to that one.

Nice to see ski country perhaps cashing in on -NAO trends... I'm still waiting for the operational model versions to stop trying to physically over power the entire planet with their beady-eyed obsession to drill for oil through Lake Superior - but we gotta start somewhere. LOL

00z GGEM for example... Otherwise, nada/no-go on coastal commitment from other operational versions - although yesteday's 12z JMA looked suspiciously like it bombed the 13th cyclone as it rips a fast mover from the TV to the GOM - I have zip real-time experience with that product though, and it's coarseness doesn't lend to confidence either. So I guess we have the GGEM/JMA against every more higher performance method imaginable - ha, not a good optic ... But we'll see. The NAO is negative on the 13th ( pretty deeply so in the numerical values), with the actual spatial depictions also showing ample hgt anomalies over the western limb. The PNA has even begun to rise - but still negative. It can be argued in both directions. The short version is that if we average the position climo for a -PNA/-NAO, it's just about collocated where the EPS and GEFs mean are for that for that time range. Very interesting..

It's too early for postmortem on this event but so far ... it appears the idea of tempering the outcome may have been the better expectation. We'll see how things play out during the day. Winchendon MA with 3.5" and 7.5" at this end of Rt 2, and I have contact over in Chelmsford with 8" so along the Rt 2 corridor, as of 9 am 'moderate' sufficed for this. Again, we're saying if this ended now, so we'll see where we stand this evening. So far, this event appears to be driven by the lead S/W, albeit attenuating, still with enough thrust to generate isentropic lift. Really, just timed a sufficiently cold air mass ( interior ) with that which could have happened without that cold - so 'fortunate' in that sense. It would be nice to see this evolve into a more cyclonic generation/cross section with that CCB and so forth, to sort of "validate it" further. But ... mm, not sure it really matters either way. Just airing some thoughts on this as obs are coming across my awareness.

7.5" as of 7 am ... Interesting Obs: ...32/31 at 3:45 am; 24/23 at 4:15 am. We have a lot of tree and wire sag. There were subtle hints of a blueish tint to the dawn overcast while flurries persisted. It was like 'blue sky dimly visible.' Very little wind. Very serene. I snapped this pic. Steadier light snow has resumed nearing 9am