Typhoon Tip

that 500 mb evolution in the operational version blend for this weekend is drawn out of a july playbook for heat waves. it's been on the charts much more than less for many day's worth of runs at this point, and it also fits into the ens mean/derived telecon spread. we saw 80 as late as nov 9 in 2020. we're 3 to 3.5 weeks up hill in solar so it's interesting if we can get that or even a couple of 85ers. the metrics are ideal, otherwise. near nil ceiling rh, west wind conveyor toting 850s 14+C . one should assume they'll be slightly higher than 13 when/if the overall impression is taking place.. impressive anomaly for this time of year when 500 mb non hydrostats over 588 dm ... the only limiting factor is whether the steepening angle of the sun can dump enough energy into that environment - if so... what are the records for that period, sat and sun? if one is a warm weather enthusiast ... just bear it for a couple days in the near term. the synoptic wind may still be active tomorrow night but with these longish nocturnal ... anywhere that does manage to decouple may drop below the 2-meter 37s

i don't think, or am not sure is probably better, that the pdo is causal? i may have even read this ...but the pdo is largely a result of aggregated ss stressing from wind patterns over some length of time. so the warm or cool phases are distributive based on atmospheric-oceanic coupling, really. in other words, the pdo is best describing where the momentum has been distributed. then people see these graphical products with pretty red or blue respectively ...and they go 'aha!' red must make a ridge, then blue must make a trough. it could in fact be these latter that formulate the former. haha but here's the thing - the sensitivity in defining the pdo cool and warm phases may also be sensitive below the threshold of atmospheric forcing anyway. not sure how how a +.5 or a -.5 oceanic surface anomaly is a silver bullet to why chicago to washington has a cold or hot winter. etc i could see maybe some sort of feedback at little... but what's the threshold? is 1 deg c of sst anomaly enough ? ... .5 ... ? or is it 2, otherwise it's all bullshit.

can you imagine what a genius one would look like then if they'd forecast this recent -aug that just happened in boston lol come to think about it, the stunningly 'hot' +0.3 that location put up for the next month, sep, is probably equally as difficult during this era of cc, too. so may as well take the two months together. (-0.7 + +0.3)/2 = -0.2 for the two together i'm only mentioning because i've noticed recurrence of a se can/ne us cool pool, which seems to be quasi reproducible. i know why, or strongly suspect the reasons but tl;dr just one quick thought.. if se can/ne us was in a relative temperature hole, then naturally ...we look around for a comparable hill - but there's a problem. whenever we do, the hills are more like mountains, where's the valleys that are supposed to couple and make for a general neutral total ... don't. i mean look what happened in phx and other areas of the sw/california while boston limped to a 2-month average of -0.2 ? we are not balancing the landscape. there's like a cool air drainage basin here. look at canadian sep - warmest sep like ever... while boston limps. not the first time i've seen this synoptic dumpster over se can/ne us there's a bit of a perhaps sociological perspective that bugs me in this.. eastern n/a's mid latitudes are being enabled by the geometric base line perennial pattern - which features elevated heights west, with a flattening ( or subtle trough) in the east. that is creating the cool pool tendency - tendency not meaning it is always there... and as such, the region is toned in "red" on the ipcc reports and whatever reports in the compendium. but this back-o-ball-bag heat is having more to overcome in order to manifest. so is comparatively rarer. it seems more and more so when i look around, these 'perennial hills' around the world are where the heat bombs are going off, where the canonical valleys are experiencing warming ... but since they lack specific synergistic events the sensible realization is a more tepid cc response in those regions. it's all a perfect layout to hide cc from one of the very densest population of fossil fuel dependencies, one that could really use the smack in the face wake up call. haha

and the it could be cooling degree days after that

"At this point, though, Schmidt says, none of these developments — or even a combination of all of them — seems sufficient to explain the heat. This, in turn, raises several other possibilities. The recent temperature run-up could be the result of some development that’s yet to be identified. Or it could mean the climate system is more unpredictable than was thought. Alternatively, it could indicate that something is missing from climate models, or that amplifying feedbacks are kicking in sooner than the models had predicted. .." again, the 'reason' they are missing is synergy. these philosophers keep trying to find it in some kind of polynomial summation, if not a silver bullet. they're unlikely to find it there it's going to be found in the synergistic realm - which cannot be defined in those linear contributors. it only exists when the linear variables are working together in harmonic feed backs. just as any dictionary would define, it's an interaction or cooperating parts that give rise to a whole that is greater than the simpler sum of its parts. sorry folks, but when you deal in dynamics, 2+2 really = 5 they can't just combine variables. i don't believe that temperature surge could be derived any other way - it's a 'smoking gun' ( puns intended to annoy ... ) for a synergism - and ... a warning. probably above all, why humanity, despite all conceits ... is dumb fucked in trouble for tinkering like they are a Kardashev 1 civilization. as an aside, when they can't even stop famine, disease, and their own creative inequality; how are they going to be responsible for their own innovation? enter Fermian Paradox explanation -

70 here ... you guys are talking 50s up there? it's interesting how weak the actual caa terms must be. like the flow is parallel to thickness gradient. nevertheless... once the ceiling arrives and 'caps' the chilly air and then starts raining into this 'thermodynamic' cold air mass... that's the first real nasty look of the autumn. talking 50s and wet ~ 100 miles either side of line from alb-bos. yuck. and yes, the seemingly perfunctory october snow chance has arrived - it's part of the new climate signal ...leave it at that, which has been recurring often enough to raise eyebrows. it's just situated a little n of 40 n this time, but here we are again ... mid october with a d-drip. then, anyone noticing that that warm signal next weekend? wow. if anything, the 850 mb metric is probably underdone at this range/given to the 500 mb isohypses evolution. that's an impressire -pnap continent. 590 dm hghts to almost alb in the gfs is impressive, particularly when it's not merely there for just a day. we'll see ... still a couple days to mess it up before it gets more confident, but the fact that the pna index is hugely correcting from +1 all the way -1, while the ao/nao are switching positive.. yeah

i don't see any major issues with his interpretation, which as delivered is blend of teleconnector understanding ... combined with daily mass field migrations - he's not clear if the latter is ensemble/blend or operational model version ( ggem, euro, gfs ) and that blend. but in so far as what he has said, there's really only one nit pick that i can see. it's this statement ( bold ) below: "This general predicted pattern across North America is troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies in the Gulf of Alaska forcing ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies across the interior of North America. This pattern favors widespread normal to above normal across much of Canda and the United States (US) with normal to below normal temperatures limited to Southeastern Canada and the US East Coast. " i can see a pathway to where he would be correct, but i don't see a means to determine the probability therein, to say 'favors' one way or the other. it has to do with the abstraction of the time of year/climatology of geometric wave dispersal across the hemisphere. ..say that fast.. i just mean that the wave lengths are still not really in the winter 'stretch' mode, to where teleconnectors are in their highest pattern correlative value. in the nebular heights of summer .. a +pna does not nearly mean the same spatial resolution as it does in gradient saturated l/w anchored nadir of late January and so on.. such that with shortened wave lengths there's time/space to buckle and well ...we've been seeing this tucking/folder over trough repeating since mid september - sort of 'cheating' us into thinking season's canonically behaved, when we're really just created a cold puddle hole in an otherwise toasty hemisphere ( relative to climate ). that said, the -EPO onset with correlated -PNA undergirding, favors a height drop over 110+ w across the mid lat continent. that couples with rising heights ( again ... in the canonical sense ) over eastern mid latitudes. but again, that doesn't mean we can't 'tuck' - it's not clear that he's thinking about that nuanced occurrence or not. frankly, if it were up to me and my druthers... we'd balm the f out until thanks giggedy

Gobblin green glow during this pulse so far

Yeah tonight was as vivid as last May

you should be zero biased, period. this goes for everywhere in life, except for one circumstance, and only that circumstance: any argument with your gf or wife

haven't seen any cu with virga cloaks around them. need to see that first

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-50813-z the gist of it is that the more extreme plausible range of CC is more possible than previously thought

no one asked, but i don't believe 'trying' is part of it. they really think they can. i like to drill down the granularity even further, and consider/posit reasons for the bold (abv). the masses are being enabled to do so. the, why they are? that is complex, but my posit is that it has to deal with feedback, multi-generational, from the relative opulence/provisional state that exists inside the industrial bubble - the first time anything like this scale and degree of transformative influence has occurred in human history ( btw... ). i mean one can argue the advent agriculture, but no - that was too primitive. the real convenience of choice-addling doesn't begin there. it began when people were given, for the first time, the freedom of alternatives. this means that a bad choice or decision no longer result in "death of a child" - unless they're just plumb dumb fuck Darwinian recipients... different matter - anyway, you ingraciate enough consecutive generations, and consequentially the dimming of wit, as well as the advent of "alternative truths" that satisfy a narrative/preconception bias, both become ( perhaps academically) the most likely trajectories of the masses. as an aside, it's a species level consideration; we are clearly in a kind of socio-technological experiment. anyway, the bubble protects people from their own stupidity, which ironically ... promotes their stupidity it's not hard to imagine/intuit this, really. imagine a farmer with 6 kids during frontier americana circa 1830s ... they didn't make bad choices as often, because failure is not an option. lack of recourse too commonly resulted in a very high price: disease, death, famine ... in the year 2000, fuck up one's job/salary, a.k.a. their "crops", and there's a plethora of other options to recourse - and plenty of social nets to bridge between hard times. the myopic reader would say this isn't true, citing x y or z. but, in either x y or z, the difference there is that the possibility of 'could' is probabilistically/factorably larger in modernity. in 1830, you tried a lot harder not to fuck shit up out of necessity - it is not a giant leap to wonder if despite having far less access to the information saturation of the modern individual, those 1830 were even far more intelligent with what they had to work with the information they were exposed so, long of the short ... this has been a 'dimming intellectual' influence that began during the early decades of last century, and really has since become an outright mechanism in the socialization of the masses. since the advent of 'information dosing,' truth as we know it is defaulting to a feeble contender vs the prohibitive favorite in make belief. this is what i long suspected to be true ... really since the ability of seeing humanity's dirty laundry on guilty pleasurable tap. a mere channel turn, mouse click, or thumb swipe leads to an expose of cringe-worthy lies that color events put on by the deliciously feckless of virtue - in other words, immorality and stupidity on both sides: those committing the egregious shit, and those who are the audience of it. then... i encountered this intriguing study: https://phys.org/news/2023-03-online-iq-scores-century.html in fairness, the parenthetical states, "The researchers did not conduct any research to try to explain the drop, but suggest it might be linked to changes in the education system..." but, almost as drool humor, I would suggest the "education system" is vastly more than handcuffing students to desks and forcing eyes on test plans. It's really about what multiple generations are exposed to, then ... the handing down of lessening intellectual returns. it's always nice to hypothesize, then have one's hypothesis substantiated.

all we need to do is ease off this eastern continent tuck trough tendency and that would result in a temperature look that satisfies that above rather nicely - in other words ... continuity moving forward. this eastern canadian folder over thing has been enabling the eastern lakes, n ov and ne regions into nostalgia for the cold season. lol. however, i hunch that the last 3 weeks of temp verification might have us being one of the colder regions there is comparing everywhere else outside that small region of 'stolen late summer warmth', on our side of the hemisphere. this started around the 10th of september i've had cold hands in my house in the mornings this week, and finally ... i flipped the heat pump to heating mode ... meanwhile, it's been in the mid 80s in north fuckum dakota ha

interesting signal in the late mid and extended range. it's been on the guidance for a while ... but it's not exactly an exciting facet, either, so - but the indian summer climatology is here, about 3 weeks earlier than the more typical time of year whence seasonal regression typically occurs, late oct through mid novie. it's interesting - sort of - that here we are in the fervent popularity of climate concerns, yet we're moving transition events sooner? anyway, it may be more identifiable in the pattern structure, but today's cool shot cycles out, then there is bigger one early next week with only modest recovery in between. the one early next week may in fact lay down an early snow from upstate ny, up the st l and eastern ontario. as a consequence, we end up sub 540 dm hydrostats for 48 hours from the eastern gl, n ov, and ne regions. should wind ssettle off, we don't just frost at night but we rim ponds with ice and brick the top soil if these gfs renditions play out with that. the euro and ggem are on board, more than less... after that, particularly in the gfs ensemble system and the operational ( though the euro is not far off ) have an impressive l/w rollout and we balm big time. by convention, the indian summer typically happens after the first seasonal suggestion ... i'm just making conjecture here that not all indian summers are very identifiable - they come nuanced, with some subtly suggestive if not missed altogether, where other autumns have some more coherent. this transition over the next week between two froster air masses, followed by some 4 or 5 days worth of 564+ dm hydrostat with dry wsw deep layer continental flow seems like a nuanced version of the indian summer. the most illustrated i can ever recall was just recently in 2020, when an october 30 snow was followed by 70 to 80 f between nov 5 and 10th

unless this is just some weird wobble this isn't going to be much of a surge issue for tampa bay. rad clearly is moving a busted open ravioli of an eye square on sarasota the weakening nearing land was well modeled but the track seems to be a problem - a little

No, in case they they were thinking sig snow event … but 2ndly, the tone was commiseration in the spirit of ‘what could go wrong’. Sarcasm

yeha. i dunno if it's that much but it's an oscillatory pattern at most to me. i get the humor whether y'all up there in nne can cap a few of those, what new england calls mountains, higher hills that happen to have rocky outcroppings ..., with white. perhaps. but it's all quick rollout air masses replaced with dwarf indian summer afternoons before the next one - one that was also a big testacle once at day 6 round and round we go

i'm hoping for it to just unexpectedly come on board coughing up 74 mph gusts of anitclimax .. just for the schadenfreude of watching all the "blow" back - the real storm

at this range ... your d5 amplitude rob back amount is about 10 .. 15%, so you have to cut your current d-drip with at least that much ... lowering the dose potency heh

the correlation with high latitude is more arctic oscillation in general. don't mean to lecture, just adding this ... higher solar activity favors the +annular mode; subsequently, because the ao shares ( overlaps) its domain geography with the wpo-epo-nao ( to varying degrees.. ) therefore a positive correlation with all these indices. there is a partial disconnect, so yeah ... not 1::1 but 60 .. 70% that fact that heightened summer and autumn solar activity correlates to a +nao is really just a quadrature of that bigger picture above, which ... frankly is a bit more important. particularly because in determining long lead pattern tendencies, the nao is not the primary loading pattern for either cold or storm frequency across n/a. the idea of that being the case became fallacy when the index was popularized in the 1990s and media went crazy with it... but no. cold and and/or increased storm amplitude come from the aa vs ab phase of the pacific's overall governing circulation type. aa is +wpo/+epo ( pna oscillations lag negative ) ab is -wpo/-epo ( pna oscillations lag positive ) hint, when the pna surges positive, trough digs in the east and there is a down stream ridge response over the nao = -nao. it is in total, a non-linear wave production as part of the larger dispersion signal arriving from the pacific - most don't get that. not saying that is you or anyone per se ... but i hate it when reading some rock star's extended range outlook forecasts a joyous storm based a nao index outlook that could go negative whether there is storm or not.. the winning forecast is always the one that can foresee ( correctly ...) the state of the aa vs ab pacific winter, and in either case, whether the ballast of that signal is biased west or east. preferably for winter enthusiasts in the east, eastern limb ab pacific mode is what correlates very highly with winter complexion across the continent.

https://radar.weather.gov/?settings=v1_eyJhZ2VuZGEiOnsiaWQiOiJsb2NhbCIsImNlbnRlciI6Wy04Mi40MDIsMjcuNzA1XSwibG9jYXRpb24iOm51bGwsInpvb20iOjcsImZpbHRlciI6IldTUi04OEQiLCJsYXllciI6InNyX2JyZWYiLCJzdGF0aW9uIjoiS1RCVyJ9LCJhbmltYXRpbmciOnRydWUsImJhc2UiOiJzdGFuZGFyZCIsImFydGNjIjpmYWxzZSwiY291bnR5IjpmYWxzZSwiY3dhIjpmYWxzZSwicmZjIjpmYWxzZSwic3RhdGUiOmZhbHNlLCJtZW51Ijp0cnVlLCJzaG9ydEZ1c2VkT25seSI6dHJ1ZSwib3BhY2l0eSI6eyJhbGVydHMiOjAuMjgsImxvY2FsIjowLjYsImxvY2FsU3RhdGlvbnMiOjAuOCwibmF0aW9uYWwiOjAuNn19

that's all vs mere tc conditions spanning that range - that's huge