Typhoon Tip

All humor and ... collective fetish for humiliating Kevin aside, the table appears setting for an - to me - RI of some sort in about 30+hrs. By then the zygote TD will have moved bodily away from its limiting interaction with the land mass of Cuba, and over the SE Gulf o/Mex. That region host the famed "loop current," a surface to very deep vortex column that contains some of the highest integrated OHC on the planent, above which the sfc to air coupled environment is like levitating over a pan of simmering water. That in and of itself isn't enough but in the case of "Debra" the modeled deep layer mass fields look to me like they're supremely constructed. There's fractals in the area where there is effectively 0 shear, amid a region where if there is any it's well below any threshold that would impede the development of vertically sustaining convective structures. Lot of long words for a system that might become photogenic, and with very low shear and u/a diffluent radial geometry and all the OHE ... doing so at a rather accelerated pace ...heh. I've read a recent paper about RI increased frequency increasing around the world, well... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-40605-2 This could become a bomb concern and doing so prior to impacting the NE Gulf. I might be missing something - I am basing it on the coarser data sourcing of the web, and not some super inference machinery down at TPC. But looking at the baser theoretical parameters, I'd be a little more than just bun leery if I owned property anywhere between Pensacola and St Pete.

yes ... sarcasm is vastly too nuanced and complex - I know... lol

Well ... thankfully for you, then, off all possibilities, that's the lowest. There's a much better chance that this will smear out S of here - once the models inevitably correct for amplitude bias in that range, overall. I'd even venture there's a better chance for this thing coming on board and rotting in the TV before getting west of CT.

I remember all the way back to Gloria ... that one, for some reason, you just new when it was some 5 days away that it was coming up here. I don't know how. I mean the modeling tech underneath the newly arriving weather graphic technology was primitive compared to pita flop ( wait 'till QC cores come online), operating in parallel processing at dizzying computational speeds, all having access to much denser initialization data or interpolation methods ... Despite the comparatively HUGE learning disability of that yester-ear, it was coming. I have not sensed anything like that with the tropics since. I have countless times with snow events - just none of those since 2015 lol. In fact, I think we're behind ( statistically ) on 'dramatic event climatology'? I feel like VT's floods are about it ... but that's sort of not SNE, even though we share the same sforum bandwidth. Maybe the Monson tornado... but I sorta don't count town scaled anomalies... I mean real pan dimensional regional concerns... Doesn't even have to be state of em regional juggernaut headlines, but give us a 90 percenter big anything? It's been rather docile.

Still involving scenario though I mean, euro doesn’t even bring that thing up the coast. The longer range hemisphere looks like it wants to try and flip sort of a negative PNAP. Euro was trying to initiate that transition before it can even come north and that traps it down there underneath the evolving WAR

Two sensitivities… One is what you just said …the other one is that thing looks like it’s too robustly developing that close to land. maybe one but as of now I’m having trouble finding an analog

Lost power for over 2 hours … storms were potent enough. It’s always those who were lucky enough to dodge inconvenience that stand up so willing to spear head clarification over event significance. Lol

Just slow movers ... SPF is situated pretty far inland... no evidence of breeze boundary. However, there's subtle heights falls moving over a high heat/elevated DP air mass, and with some oreographic assist over N/CT there's a triggering mechanism there.

93/74 so ... yeah

Looks like we have one of those classic Springfield stationary water boarding events setting up

Those towers have to be getting pretty high wow

18:40 84.2 66.2 71.6 55 21.9 SW 29.68 29.87 Mostly Cloudy 10.00 5500 18:37 84.0 66.9 72.0 57 27.6 40.3 WSW 29.68 29.87 Thunder, Squalls 10.00 5500 40.3 WSW 18:35 84.2 68.0 72.7 58 28.8 34.5 WSW 29.68 29.87 Squalls 10.00 5500 18:30 91.4 71.6 76.9 53 21.9 35.7 SW 29.69 29.88 Mostly Cloudy 10.00 5500

The Euro is attempting to modulate those latter frames' synoptic hemisphere toward what I was describing in the August thread. This run appears to be emerging that. During those latter ranges it's now raising heights N-NE of HA ... That transmits a pattern reversal down stream over the continent - in the summer, the wave lengths are less coherent than winter so ... But still, there it is. Also, notice the heights over the NAO domain, particularly the western limb? there's zip blocking and longitudinal flow type setting up. That will also draw the westerlies N along the EC, and then WAR retros west underneath. There's actually ( ironically) a growing signal there for a heat wave in the OV to NE region - mind you ...this is all evolving.

yeah, that's been the specter with this one for days. I haven't really been keeping up on threads so not sure who gets credit and when but this has been missing some canonical features. No pulsed -NAO over the western limb, while ..yeah there's a trough near 90 W but the saddle bag structure is too opened up like you're saying. I guess there's time to change.

looks like the model ran an experiment to pass a cane the closest it could possibly come while meaning the lowest possible fun while doing so. ha

90 at noon makes it day 2. I don't think we're gonna make it tho because tomorrow looks sort of 88/76-ish

solid analysis. personally ...I'd suggest there's possibility for a more than just AN. ( altho - it almost seems we have to "attribute study" every AN now to know if its the pattern or something else. One could be right about the pattern, but CC makes it +1 blah blah ) Anyway, there's signs among the various guidance for heights to rise beyond D7 out N-NE of HA over the Pac ... transmitting an albeit weak, but there nonetheless, telecon for lowering height exertion over the western continent. Meanwhile, the NAO appears to be rising positive independent of that - so it seems... - which signals rising heights in the OV/MA and NE. The combo of both those is playing with fire (haha).

https://phys.org/news/2024-08-japan-hottest-july-began.html

Looks like a shot at a heat wave this week. Today, tomorrow ... Saturday? Folks talking about ending summer - for those that embrace and enjoy summer, however, I suppose we just hideout and enjoy the here and now. This will make the 3rd official for my location. Otherwise, it's been an 89er summer ... with as usual, unusually elevated lows.

the discussion moves into the murk of personal druthers. I like 'nickle and dime' along steady diet years.

For me it has been since 2015. Like you ... I don't need 150 to 300% of average climo snow, falling through a -10 F February to get the point across. But just a Currier&Ives winter it's been been the better part of a decade. As an aside ... what I think also skews this discussion and makes people want to engage in internet fights ( haha ) is that singular events going way above "storm climatology" - folks that argue in favor of winter are wrong. Period. That is "cheating" seasons for lack of better word. But that's a rabbit hole... I just know that I have personally observed 70 to 80+ F in 7 of the last 9 year's worth FEB-MAR periods ( and January's suck on big brown chocolate balls too often as well ...) all happening despite Brian getting 42" of snow in 20 minutes 2021, or March birch benders like 2018, enough to compensate and make it seem fair. These other years may not be dogshit winters, per se, but it's like trying to eat supper while Fido's hangin' one in the corner of the room.

Yeah, that guess is as good as any. For me, I just don't personally see how or why CC would effect model processing. It doesn't make sense that way. The climate change, despite the rage ...moves way slower than a single model being 15% too amplitude in mid and extended range. If the climate change moved at 15% correction we'd be extinct in 10 months as a species along with countless others. There are two aspects going on, though. Big amplitude events are occurring; the models just are not pin-pointing them in time and space at a discrete level. These - I'm gonna call them - "synergistic bombs" going off, are not being modeled at the discrete time and spatial dimension - at all really. In the Road Runner 'ACME' realm of physics, amplitude does make sense in the models, then. heh. But maybe the models are sort of "almost" detecting - maybe we shouldn't be so quick to disregard amplitude bias as just being some sort of errant quotient. In other words, the fact that they do this and the bias exists, means that there is chance of something to occur but we don't know what that is. By the way, the attribution studies are consummately informing that some powerful event or departure could not have taken place without the acceleration of the climate change... etc etc

I wouldn't be shocked if there was an earlier onset of some color among various species. I few years ago ...I wanna say 2019, but it may have 2021 ... some of the maples around this region of Rt 2 in SNE appeared to go 3 weeks early. I noticed also, these color changes were abnormal. I'm just excruciating enough to remember particular trees' color hues. You know? this one is tends to saffron. This guy's yellow... This one's red... etc... These were all flushing yellow or biasing more yellow than normal. I thought maybe smoke had something to do with it ... but, I read a paper ( which I've lost ref too - ) that suggested not only was this noticed in general, they cited overly proficient growth factoring was the cause. Basically, it takes a certain amount of carbon-based chemistries, plus energy in some sort of ratio in order to succeed both growth and then sustaining the different yellow, red and green colors. Once that is used up, those breaks down - I'm butchering this, no doubt - and drains back from the leafs exposing those that require less to maintain.... We also had a blight couple of years in there, where not only did this yellowing occur early, but there were those shit stains all over them. But that's the warm steamy back of rancid sack DP thing and a different issue. Anyway, this year's warmth overall and much more abundant sun, and a wet spring... etc... this seems like a candidate year to test that idea above. Granted some are dry in the back yards coming down the stretch here but at a larger regional scope the U.S. drought survey isn't too impressed with any status of dry this season. They do target Brian though ...which is interesting haha

It'll be interesting to see what happens in this Aug 7 to 15th time span with temperatures. Just using experience with the amp bias, and applying it to the various depictions, it seems an ~ 15 to 20% normalization off that crazed higher latitude meridian flow anomaly likely limits the actual "cool" value to whatever gets delivered. Another aspect I am noticing about that whole period of time is that the spatial layout of the amplifying pattern is situated above the 40th parallel. Pretty strong operational coherency for the expansion of the Hadley cell summer. If we shave 15% off the model amplitude, and consider that N bias in the termination of the westerlies, that also tends to mitigate cooling some. I dunno... it seems in an era when we are either always AN, or ... finding least excuse imagined to make a BN outlook more average, maybe we can start to identify how and why-for the error.