Typhoon Tip

It may be sooner ... It's a developing state ( so we'll see - ) but as I described ( bothered to analyze ) this morning, there's a burgeoning +PNA signal between D6 and D10. This 12z ens means'll be interesting in that regard.

Yeah ..I'm aware I was also looking at the GFS' pressure coordinate temperature progs as a basic metric this morning and it's not clear in that product if there is in fact that type of stratospheric intrusion taking place that leads to the down welling . But ... in deference to other's data sourcing and so forth I didn't mention it. The full manifold of data sources from the American side looks rather climo to me so far. We'll see. If one bothers to look at the domain going back to 1979 monitoring, ... warm perturbations occur far more frequently than an actual warm burst that goes on to down well and actually forces the AO domain.

The basic zonal temp anomaly provided by shows a thermal intrusion taking place at this time. As Chuck hinted, SSW have a time lag correlation. This is ( or should be ) known. The correlation is between 20 and 30 days prior to AO response. Also, SSW can come, register a -AO response, and it meant nothing. Folks should also be aware, there are other planetary aspects that can modulate/interfere with how a -AO contributes to mid level pattern, and/or temperature anomaly distribution - 'where' being paramount. SSW do not always = what one may think. Also ... a warm intrusion may not be propagating downward. That's an important distinction in the subsequent correlation. Many of the SSW in the data set ( from the same source) show that there was a cyclic presentation of a warm node prior to the main flux, that latter being what then down-wells in the system. That down welling takes a couple of weeks to suspend through the domain depths toward the tropospause - at around the point in which that takes place is when the PV pancakes and bifurcates, which is the -AO response.

This has been going on since September per my own observation. Feels like this has been a windless autumn.

Fwiw - https://phys.org/news/2023-12-three-day-exceptional-china-linked-human-induced.html

mm, we have to be careful there. That increase is not linear when it is 2% per degree - I assume they mean C but not sure. Doesn't matter in arithmetic. 2% of 200kts may result 204kts, but ... 2% of 204 is 208.08. Firstly, the forcing may not be trivially impacting, despite seemingly so. When we get into the "grander machinery" of the atmosphere, smaller decimals can mean bigger variance at smaller scales than we may expect - not just how storms behave, but then naturally in the metrical climate observations. Kinda like why a .1% increase from a mammoth sun may have such a dramatic impact on temperatures on Earth ( see Milankovitch Cycles ..etc) ...

LOL, right - a "back log" hypothesis.

Yup...just wrote about that to 'Wiz ... there's a time dependency there ( imho -) .. It won't offset until the poles warm further. Cross thresholds (what's new -) and then we go the other way. But man - just intuitively... humans, and a lot of species, won't be around to see that because what it would take to get the global gradient into a state of normalization like that? Isn't that like a Venetian state..

Yeeeah, I've thought of this, too... I suspect there is a longer time dependency in the gradient argument helps figure that out? See ... the poles are warming faster than the equators. Truth. But why? -cthe idea being it's easier to add energy by way of terminating planetary waves into higher latitudes ( extinguishing WAA), along with other factors like open seas --> black body absorption feed-backs, etc, than it is to raise a very high DP equatorial girdle when the solar contribution is for all intents and purposes a constant. Around the equator, change is happening at the rate of atmospheric chemistry change; inherently slower to the poles where are susceptible to multiple factors - In simple terms ...after some 10(s) or a 100(s) of years ( sooner or later...) the polar regions will have warmed to where the gradient does begin to reduce as the gap closes. In the meantime, the gradient has been increased. It's a matter of comparing rates of changes between the Equatorial factors wrt those of the Polar regions.

Yeah, I edited that post to add a paragraph ... more thoughts along this way. Part of me also thinks that there could be more events ( 'smeared') that are vestigial events that are so stressed that they don't really qualify as what we consider to a "storm"? There may be 'interpretation boundaries' to this, too. In other words, not really few storms.. just a wider gap between ferocity and pedestrian profiles.

'Unmanned ensemble hose'

Here ya go, Ray - ...at least someone else corroborates my last 12 years https://phys.org/news/2023-12-jet-stream-faster-climate.html "...Though the findings are robust, more research will have to be done to predict exactly how these faster winds will impact individual storms and severe weather occurrence..." I would argue that cyclone morphology is one of those that will emerge out of that study ( for the upteenth time). Sorry to be a dick but I have been yelling about this for a long time. But also in a practical application, the modeling behaviors that we have noted as seemingly idiosyncratic, may actually be more predictive than noise -related error, too.

Forgive me, economics isn't my bag. I get the stressed domestic production - due to CC. Intuitive enough. I guess I was thinking along the lines of, 'the value of the dollar drops while printing more money' as inflation - which really is more of a secondary response ( and really bad approach) to dwindling resources. I can see how as GDP stressing gets worse, prices go up - that's academic. I think it's what happens as reactionary policies that is the problem. Ex, the Germans were hung out to dry and left pretty destitute prior to WWII. Political identity was in crisis. GDP didn't really exist. Inflation there resulted, which led to the bad idea of printing more money. There's a lot of geopolitical/geodesic math between that and Hitler's decision to annex Poland ..etc ... but in principle, their society was left in a flight or fight pathway by a destitution both economically, then triggered further by that political identity crisis after WWI. Evil loves that vulnerability. Ex II, Soviets pulled out of Afghanistan (their "Vietnam"). The U.S. abandoned their supplies to the region when that happen - bop ahead 10 or 20 years and in waltzes the Taliban. I mean humans do this ... but I'm digressing. What I'm getting at is you can see the seeds of global conflict. Interesting.

What's interesting about that is between 144 and 200 hours there are discerned height falls N/NE of Hawaii. Prior runs had that, however, it appeared to be more a function of wave space passing through - this is both that, and actually deepening. There's adding -d(hgt). Anyway that's usually indicative of a rising PNA. Minus there, then couples to positive response over the western continent. So, I went over and checked the numerical index. Base upon the 00z suite, both the EPS and GEFs rise from -1 SD, tomorrows local nadir, to +1.5 by the 15th. Moving that particular index a total +2SD isn't always trivial. Actually, going back three cycles the index had been trending more positive over successive runs, from all three, EPS/GEFS/GEPS. Yet despite these changes, we're not seeing 'restoring' event triggered (yet) downstream east of 100W over the continent. I might suggest that if the above trend were to continue, and add yet more -d(hgt), there could be more +d(hgt) added to the west ... and then things change

There’s a lot here. I’m not sure what the circuitry is between climate and inflation .. but, re big losses? that’s going to happening regardless. The global industrial population is so large that if 90% adopted green renewable there’d be enough population left still operating in non-compliance to push over thresholds. This recent temperature spiked phenomenon…? This should really actually be a wake up call. It seems to be, but I don’t think people really realize what that means in terms of where this thing could be even 20 years from now. Anyway … good luck getting even half of 90% before it’s too late… (I’m not being heavy-handed at you per se lol I’m just sayin’)

Yeah … the brow raised once the, “these soundings” scrolled …

I suspect the bigger wind threat from that frontal ordeal's really going to be more so convection dependent. Could see a ribbon squall with some wild rad tags tripping warnings... General 35 to maybe 40 mph gusts out ahead go W on that squall wedge with a turbine gusting along with sheets of blinding rain for 5 minutes while it side-winders through the area. This type of frontal nature, with deep warm dp transport out ahead of that kind of squal/cold frontal combo ...I've seen this probably half the Nov and Dec I've lived on the planet.

Yeah .. Scott and I were musing over the utter lack of predictive skill in the mid month. man -

Merry Christmas!

I'll tell ya though man ... that still flurry filled air whilst dim orb sun is very gelid reminiscent. It's like the background setting of a David Attenborough segment on winter Caribou or Moose or something...

Yeah it's a dependable kind of "correction vector" - just an expression I use for/when evaluating these latter ranged aspects on the charts. We need to know if the pattern is: 1 progressive 2 retrogressive 3 delta between the two, and which direction... If #1, the vector points toward like what you say. More than 50% of the time, at least some tendency to do that is expressed as latter range period/features are tracked into shorter range. Not always weakening.. Bombs can occur but will tend to be move right along. Uuusually though, some weakening will take place because 'speeding up' is mathematically a negative interference factor. It's matter of balancing; if the wave is strong enough to overcome..etc If #2, the vector points toward more amplitude - but also other things associated. Retrograde patterns aren't always 'bomby' either. It can just mean slowing. We also haven't seemingly observed a #2 hemisphere in quite a few years at this point. Perhaps a times ... but by and large the longer term canvas has been a raging W-E boner pattern. If #3, get artistic and stand out as a special insight when not looking like an arrogant ass.

The system for Monday appears to be morphing into a cold front. I mentioned this days ago ...that whole thing might not survive model de-magnification as it came into nearer terms. It's weakened considerably over the southern Ontario bomb from early runs. At this point, some of these guidance or more like a strong cold front with a stressed wave zipping up the boundary...also farther E of the Ontario transit - a hallmark of conserving the progressive/fast flow type. Wouldn't be surprised if this is just a strong cold front in the end. Interesting to see if it continues to morph that way.

OH yeah ..I know. And it's early. I'm just feelin' a tad sarcastic this morning

Whether the patterning resembles or not is 'sides the point, the present results are very homage to the 1980s.

Lol, look at this incredible agreement by the 06z GEFs ... what a bomb, huh