Typhoon Tip

https://phys.org/news/2024-10-earth-climate-humanity-net-emissions.html ( https://esd.copernicus.org/articles/15/1353/2024/ )

morning bus stop small talk ... 25 here, coldest so far this forwarding year. lots of still air leaf fall. i love that affect. the sun's morning beams shown sideways with leaves flitting down; they're the only movement or sound. we've had a couple of these cold shock mornings but they were only in 29. 25 is deep enough to really get the fluttering going. interesting that despite the patterns ... on going hemisphere being so warm this autumn we're getting any of this - well timed I suppose.

Until the index significantly change the GFS operational likely to keep flopping right back to warm looks …obliterating those. Probably gonna get periodic inserts of cold just good for upslope and maybe snowmaking but you’re gonna get warm blasted two or three days later and it won’t make it worth it If the index change then fine otherwise check back in after Thanksgiving giggity

you do realize half my intent there was a deep poke and stick wiggle into the hornet's nest muah hahaha

funny was thinkin about this during disk this morning. back in the 1980s or 90s ... a 58 on nov 2 was a huge lucky bonus yummy warm balm bliss day. climate fixing i guess

how come cc isn't factored in

that's crazy out there. i realize we were 78 to 80 nov 6-10 in 2020 but doing this with all that wind today ... probably doesn't mean 'more' per se but it's just wrong. i mean, windy in november is really not existentially consistent with heat. windy in novie = cold

12z euro attempting an atmospheric river genesis, but displaced a bit n of climo for that sort of hemisphere. suppose it makes sense... only so far to extend the hc n of normal before these base latitudes start also (gee) ending up n. anyway, pac rivers into the w coast typical of raging rna hard ons so we'll feel the heat of the balls back e, with another mid month warm stench probably if that happens

i know ... people 'get' to see the annihilation of winter in time to get a good night sleep instead of waking up thinking the new day might have brought a different reality in the models...

29.8 here a couple of times ... so a freeze but not really very impressively so. may have just been the dip temp anyway, not having spent much time in that range - unsure. 34 a few times though. agreed mid month. earlier telecon projections ( like those from last week and prior ) suggested the wpo may slope off ...if so, perhaps an indication that by mid novie we'd be seeing a pattern change coming around the bend but that doesn't seem to be as coherent anymore. seems we've established a pretty obvious precedence going back some 15 years that "correcting" at all, has been favoring warm side - without getting into causal debate. it just is what it is. if anything corrects colder, that's become the rarer circumstance. sometimes the greater synoptic construct looks like it corrects cooler, but the actual dailies seldom really reflect it. seeing it here... subtly offering reasons to see the se ridge bloom again/protract.

it would be nice if nature followed the intents and purposes of human designs like that. lol

It’s really just a shift tho, isn’t it ? doesn’t the sunrise also later for a couple weeks on

oh, we came up since then. it's see 64.

62 ... air smells like a warm sector finally.

the reason i was really asking is the seasonality of that. the nws conference last year ( not this one the other day ...) showcased a 48 to 55 f, sensibly cold air, low eof swarm down in se sections down here, and showed the neg tilt 500 mb and sfc cyclone pulled up west of orh while that was happening. can't recall exactly but i think the case study was an octo or novie event. maybe even dec. fascinating. seems autumn/early winter is a time to get that. i think there was some discussion/speculating about diabatic association to the near by ocean entrainment

actually ...the low turd has been wiped off this underwear of a day at this point. it's mid and high deck. temp up to 59

68 to 70 popping up along the Pike 53-55 along rt 2 fuggin one stubborn ass wedge job just noticing now the day glow is rising out the windows... we may get some partial ceiling lift/sky lights going now.

do you think those kinds of tornadoes might be assisted by some sort of raging synoptic forcing

heh a.c. on tomorrow? unless one lives in some special glowing circumstance like a shit apartment a mere wall away from a steam cleaning outfit ... turning on the ac tomorrow smacks as fulfilling a narrative

i wonder if it is 60 up on top of mt monadnock https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

mmm i hope so. believe me. as someone that's turned to the dark side and hates and despises winter now ( unless there's an actual reason to like it, like a snow storm that all but cant happen here now despite everyone's ideas on reality - hopefully that pisses people off reading that ), i hope it is 72 f all the time. buuuuut since the no winter scenario is more likely going to express as 40 to 50 f wedge jobs we're left to dream. lol seriously though, the ens means suggest above normal is favorable, but these oper models, all of them, are running out and finding reasons to not expand within the telecon suggested potential -

that should be a really cold morning this sunday. that kind of slow approach polar high stemming any wind down to ideal decoupling, just after a fresh insert of chilly caa at this time of year? it'll cold shock strip the remaining leaves off the trees and rim smaller ponds with their first ice of the season in that NAM look.

it is interesting that that model error is all but entirely dependable though. i think it's just the warm side of the same error tendency, where the models are some 20 to 30% too amplified with cyclone patterning - in principle. perhaps in this case, the outlooks allow for unperturbed blooming ridge nodes because their not 'seeing' the physical limitations yet.

be that as it may re magnitude ...it's a short stay. sort of a shirk on the original modeled ideas from last week. whittled to a briefer visit at both ends, which is rather classic for this 'least excuse imagined to keep it chillier than originally modeled synoptic' region of the planet. this is often what happens in apr/may warm ups at that end. it's circa some d9+ or whatever and the charts have 3 days of bloom forcing balm. and over time ... 20 hours having been robbed for by a front side retarding warm front passage. meanwhile, the cold front's been speeding up by 21.3 minute amts per every run spanning those 9 days until it's cut in by almost 30 hours total on that side. what was 3 days is now shortened by 50 hours - the whole time, the jaggov god of weather modeling thought we didn't see what the asshole was up to. hahaha

yeah, i added a late edit to that op ed there... not you or any one in particular, but i do suspect there is a growing kind of misconception related to so called 'marine heat waves' forcing patterns. almost like they have a spontaneity to their arrival, ...then the atmosphere is motivated by their occurrence. mm not really. but in fairness, i may be assigning that fallacy - it just comes off/"seems" like the former notion is lurking when these tweets or x's or whatever are re-posting about target causes like that. it's plausibly imaginative to suspect there may be feed-backs later on, as the thermal sources perhap breach some thermodynamic (bulk) threshold. but the ocean, particularly at middle latitude mixing circumstance ... isn't realistically going to just burst a thermal resonance out of nowhere, whereby we can conveniently find a silver bullet there.