Typhoon Tip

k.... no one gets credit for this, which transcends any indicators from last Friday. just so we're clear. you came in an meh'ed the fugger 2 hours ago and we may see 15+ in 6 hours here, and that's exceedingly rare. the point here is, these meso "bombs" are over performing relative to the phenomenon of "positive busts". There's something else going on...

Yeah ...the signal was clear that 14" of rain would happen... lol c'mon

Agreed ... I asked the question an hour ago if anyone had notice this: the "busts" behaviors are like over-achieving relative to bust phenomenon? It's like we used bust by doubles or triples. We've been seeing order of magnitude bombs going off - not exaggerating, objective numbers!

For those between Hartford and Water"buried" CT that are currently suffering a water deficit, you can feel much better about things as this is coming for tomorrow...

that's an interesting thought. I dunno. either way it was going to be a water boarding when there's a ESE/SE inflow from sfc to 850, while over top, a SW flow with an elevated PWAT anomaly. There's also a subtle yet discerned 300 mb jet acceleraton nosing across LI sound between 12z and 18z today, and that's going to physically enhance UVM along that axis right where we saw the training - makes sense there.

This ought set em up good and proper for those slow moving dam break cells tomorrow, eh?

Poorly analyzed warm front situates through the area… Maybe at no-fault to the technology it’s diffused in nature, but it is allowing lift. If you look at the satellite, you can see that there’s a general motion of very warm, humid air coming from southwest and it’s lifting over the boundary.

there are other ways to do it. I’ve seen spring coastals lay down 4-6” at regional scales. 2010 Mar did three weekends in a row

Need a hurricane right side stroke to get that

anyone noticed that 'busts' lately are GInormous ... ? That's new. Used to be a forecast for 2-4" of snow ended up 8 to 10" Impressive enough. In 1997 1-3" of slop not only busted clear to 20", it did so with temperatures well below and too cold be qualified anywhere close slop. It was 26F in Acton and we got 16" ... 21" up here along Rt 2 from that. But that "kind" of over the top excessive and unreasonable punishment scale of busting is seems to be getting more common. Like Leomenster last year, or these freak shows in VT, or Brian getting 40" in 6 hours ins 2021 ( was that already 3 years ago!). The bust behaviors are beyond the pail ... like these Tsar Bomba events

that thing in CT looks similar to that rad event up in Leomenster last year

This appears to be a rather respective bust ... I wasn't very tuned in this week but ?

I dunno about all the hyperbole but in principle ...yeah, just at a coarse generalization the next 7 days look like an odd cool snap followed by a corrective warm surge. Both of which might shave a little in amplitude.

I don’t need these metaphors really… Just say the radio latitude below which there’s no more ice

What a pit of a climate this part of the country is evolving into. Summer's are a veritable atmospheric drainage ditch now, where a mash up of continental pollutants, smoke, and DPs form this cesspool. Summers have been doing this since 2020, maybe 2018. 4 of 'em and counting

I'm wondering if Ernesto's inhaling smoke is causing some micro physical issues. It's really been struggling to maintain CDO features the whole way, and now it's got that spiral gyra thing going on

Does the GFS have a smoke product ?

As a sunsetting, we’re packing right back in with clouds again Probably gonna steal tomorrow too

70/67 strata ass packed ... 5 min west or east is sunny i've noticed this about the nashoba valley area at this end of rt 'turbid' shits 2, when the strata is stagnant, this town is literally not just figuratively the last place to clear in mass

I dunno 'bout all that 'red flagging' stuff .. sounds sort of click bate-y but, i don't actually have a problem with the parenthetic, ' rapid fire frequency' - at least in principle. it fits the emergence of the velocity biased hemisphere during winters, a leitmotif that kicked in about about 12 or 15 years ago and has been raging more than not ever since. the higher speed basal state would suggest faster system translation speeds, so naturally ..they don't hang around as long, and cycle between them quicker.

this debate is settle-able with the simple comprehension ( or should be 'simple' ) that everything in reality, including reality its self, exists on a probability spectrum, the either end of which is falsely assumed to be absolute. there is no 0, and there is no 100, at the boundaries. they are 'asymptotes' if you placed a gun against your temple, and pulled the trigger, there is no 100% chance of that the bullet successfully tunneling through your brain at twice the speed of sound. there is, however, a very high degree of confidence ... stemming from an exceptionally high degree of probability of that actually taking place. just like there is an exceptionally low probability that the sun will not rise tomorrow - the chances of that are in fact ... NOT absolutely 0. everything exists between those two end points along a probability spectrum; as it concerns common everyday experience and application, is semantics. when people are spiking foot balls... they are semantically ( and yes sometimes dimwittedly ) pressing their outlook toward the which ever end - usually for the purposes of hyperbole, at other times, 'whining'. then, those that are sensy types ... get offended by the hyperbole and whinny ...and feel like cops on a crusade to keep everyone verbally unoffensive. in either case... it's a debate that really only defines which side is has a greater coefficient of fullofshitness.

How is 'extent' vs 'area' defined ?

You need to George Costanza the weather for awhile. Ignore it ... and she'll come to you -

Looks like the areal coverage is shrinking now ... but I'm pretty well convinced that this was in part neg feedback from smoke layering/ inhibiting insolation causing delay.

Meh... August wasn't likely going to finish at +11 A correction of some sort was probably academic.