Typhoon Tip

Huh, what a multi-faceted menace next week could be. Flooding SE'easter Tropical cyclone 'hook 'n' latter' nor'easter with rain/snow mix

Has the follow-up ordeal, too

throw another rendition into the pile ...

I would have started a thread for all this a week ago but ... hard to see the doing so without inciting a lot of backlash if the primary ptype is rain, and otherwise ... failing wind headlines. Fact of that matter is, this interval/signaled active scenario was evidenced even prior to the operational runs in some cases. Most of this is abysmal handling of the complex interaction in whether the N/stream gets involved, tune and forcing. These hangover ULL snow chances are all happening because this thing is actually failing to phase. Any N/stream at all is a relatively new guest to the party, but these models plumb it down in and then the S/stream bottle rockets out of it and leaves the N/stream to cut-off. It's really it's own event. Also, there's cold air in the hemisphere - the N/stream and timing confluences .... where the f is southern Canada, though.

As Will hinted ... GGEM with borderline warning snow for the eastern ORH highlands

I was joking about that earlier, 'does sleet count as a white xmas' ha

Does rattling sleet for an hour count as a white Xmas

It's 'a little' less common to cut a low from a starting point around Atlanta GA, but in this era of repeating negative results I guess. The EPS 00z 500 mb depicts the N/stream crashing the party over Chicago. That's new. Some of the guidance had been fiddling with more phasing - this particular run didn't fiddle around! That'll do it. Anyway, whether that happens or not really doesn't change a rainy windy time for everyone - just a matter of where the low goes. There may be some 'pinch' low lingering hope later in the week but that should/could be considered a different event if something does like the 06z GFS.

18z EPS takes an east Gulf o/ Mex low west of Albany. Whatever it takes to avoid colder solutions in New England I guess

Why are we bringing up ‘94-‘95 so often? Between that and 2011-2012 I’m not sure which winter wins as the worst of all time. ‘94-‘95 is tantamount to, “Hey … remember that girl that broke your heart so bad it took 10 to 15 years to get over and about $30,000 worth of psychotactic treatments …?” Thanks for bringing it up… Lol Worst I’ve ever ever experienced. I tend to give it to ‘94-‘95 as the all time ahole because the Halloween storm in 2011 was such an unusual specter it kind of gives that winter a little bit back. Of course, then there’s philosophy over whether that storm took place actually in winter - makes that a bit dubious. Making any kind of comparison to the 1994 right now is probably the worst troll anyone could come up with. Beautifully done.

Hunga Tonga is passe

Over all I like the trends since yesterday's 12z abomination ... well, make that the last 3 day's worth of abomination. Which may not be saying much... the needle really couldn't move any more deeply embedded in the cistern of shittiness so any movement at all was going to be an improvement? sure - you can snark that back at me but I disagree. This was more of a qualitative step in a better direction.

Ray shouldn't be bunning people; in principle you are right. One thing about December events of any kind, they tend to be seasonal-latency charged with PWAT.

yeah, I hear ya. I spent time having some fun with the Nov 1921 ice storm earlier. According to reanalysis, that was a coastal. But that was exceptionally rare. By and large, it's more typical to get it done the other way.

This is obviously hugely subjected to change ...but, there is some value in noticing the excessive ( more so than even is typical at this range) variability, and not assuming the worst just because one may not see it literally illustrated on a given model run. This look is wild for the 23rd

12z GFS trended that way...

https://phys.org/news/2023-12-wildfires-sea-ice-warmest-summer.html

Yeah I was getting caught up this morning and didn't see folks posted stuff. That positive anomaly up there appears to be getting more ominous with passing days. It seems the GFS is just slightly too suppressive ( oper.), but if you loop the GGEM (0z) and the GEFs(06z) around the 22nd - Xmas, there is suggestion that some members allow trough mechanics to squeeze underneath that ( I'm not dissuaded by any GFS oper behavior being 'too amplified' with anything in that range as a matter of course) I can't believe I'm about to say this given the forced feeding tube of shit we've intubated with over the last 2 weeks of guidance ... but, when that happens, 2 stream subsume type phasing opportunities enhance. It's not there ( if yet) ... but sending retrograding positive height anomalies N of any region leads to back ground numerical instability of said region. That's just unavoidable. It is what is.

No thanks - I'm crucially that 1 less of 50/50 on ice storms ( that means, 51% against). The aesthetics of them is difficult to deny. However, standing there in a cooling household with no lights, mm. At first it's a fun break from the norm, but the novelty of that fades miserable. Eventually, you might even realize that odor is the back of your balls while there's no hot water.

One of, if not the worst ice storms in SNE history occurred in 1921 from a coastal low - 'coastal low' based upon the re-analysis I've seen/read. Rarer form. This was a doozy. I coastal storm slowly moves passed while a high pressure worked across QUE, like Will was describing ... sending a whopper ageo cold momentum under the synoptic layout. And it really is 'under' in the literal sense. The lowest 2400' of the atmosphere uncouples from the larger synopsis in extreme cases. All ice storms have this in common. You end up with two distinct events in the total tropospheric depth ( fascinating really - ). The one on top is a warm anomaly that has no interest or physical means to even intermingle, whatsoever for the fact that the floor of the scenario ends up physically disconnected entirely. It's like blithe destruction HAHA So imagine a water loaded wet Nor'easter, with 31/24 under air mass fully back loaded with all of eastern Canada to spare .. just flowing in for its own reasons, UNDERNEATH wind swept CCB rain. It's also rare for coastal storms to product icing, as more typically the CCB is better integrated. It is after all a "COLD" Convery Belt - that's what CCB means. And cold tends to take the lowest path. But in this case, the undercut QUEian air was colder than the CCB, so the CCB was most likely arriving along an elevated surface. Again ...the 1923 horror ice was a two event scenario that happens to coincide in timing. I'm not saying early next week is that ( LOL...) but it strikes me as similar in that there is a bit of a vestigial CCB there that appears to be lifted off the deck by a cold feed.

Agreed guys ... Thing is, the high pressure's been playing catch-up in the guidance ( all of them/sources) for a week. It only seems to keep losing the race, but still getting closer as the dates click off and the time nears. Closing the gap in the d(model) I'm not sure the entire tapestry for that thing doesn't change here as we shorten the middle range, either. There were a couple of sneaky runs/outside the consensus per over the last few days, that did send more N/stream tucking into the back side of the tortured Mill-A cyclone as it was sputtering up the coast. The idea here is that with guidance lacking continuity and being a bit vagarious anyway, there are forecasting headache possibilities still in play. Also ( I realize I've been snarky and making fun of shit lately but searching for objectivity here ) I'm not completely sold that we won't break more 'holiday spirit' as we head past the 21st ... There are several GGEM and GEFs members sending a trough under a positive height/retrograding in central Canada. It's too far west of the NAO, and too far east of the EPO, to be picked up by either telecon numerics but it's there nonetheless. Those features are tricky ... Should some S/W mechanics squirt underneath things go from mundane to track-able. While all this is happening we appear to average marginal with wild card modest BN air masses near by during these periods outlined - the first of which being the approach of the high pressure early next week.

I got my dates screwed up ...Friday's that day. Sorry bro. Saturday doesn't look bad either, just maybe not as mild.

I was even thinking low 60s on Saturday if using the Euro surface/lower trop. synopsis. I think we can plain-jane that and go with near full sun, down-slope/kad. flow type under 850s between +8 and +11 C. Granted the sun is tepid, but the mechanics there with the compressional aspects is going to compensate - speculative predicated on these Euro metrics playing out that way. EDIT: Friday above... my bad

Ha! Nah I just think if we actually had something worthwhile to redirect our attention. It might bleed a little bit more interest back into this engagement. Ive just grown tired of the seasonal outlooks and weeklies … and extended this and that … kicking cans. It just gets exhausting.

I think I've just about had enough of a seasonal outlooks this and weeklies that