Typhoon Tip

Well… To be fair “trend” requires more than a single run or two to be established, or determined to be the case.

I just like interesting events. I don't care if snows or not, frankly. I really don't. If it rains, one of those only stop signs sticking out down town events would be preferred. hahaha. If it's mild, I have stuff outdoorsy that I get to keep on with. I am "a little" ( admittedly) concerned that CC is accelerating and making the probability for extended periods of banal weather types go up. Because that kind of palpable change ...prooobably doesn't end well for humanity if it's that apparent. But it's funny ... a discussion seed dropped about CC seems to be worse to a lot of people than the other stuff. Oh well - but see? there is a climate sub-forum.. I don't really bring climate up in here that often, for that reason and record. I may drop a blurb rarely if it is already in play. I do place my content in the sub-forum over there pretty frequently though.

Nah... you're not the victim there. I'm not saying your content is intended for trolling one way or the other - no opinion. It is, unfortunately, an obvious aversion to others. That is the point. There's want and need for a minimal harmony amongst the engagement. Create your own thread. Give it a title ...I don't know, like, "Why there will never be a cold snowy period" - those that venture in do so at own risk.

For nothing else a neat experiment. Here's a prediction ... that thread will be crickets. One or two posts for a week or two and then it won't get much traction. Those that engage in the attempted subversive contrarian content are trying to get "trolling" across without it actually being worded that way - and if they don't have a target, they're not going to be interested in the attempt. I think the solution is simple... you have a block option. The other solution is adult the situation and don't read/and/or ignore them by personal volition. It takes two for trolling, whether on purpose or by mistake, to actually work .

Not buyin' what this 12z Euro op run's sellin' on that thing out there. That's next to statistically unheard of parking a 1040+mb fresh polar high barely 100 mi N of Maine, and still driving a low through central NE. Not only that, as that anticyclone assumes position it will with very high likeliness ... fold cold around the western -NW topography and drill it SW clear to NJ Something tells me just based upon that alone ... that corrects south, en masse, both systemically, but also the lower level features over SNE. How much so who knows but that evolution as it's laying out is unlikely. These cold polar high renditions - however - should be taken seriously, as again ... weak but crucial -EPO relaying into a +PNA with qualitative blocking near 55/110 W, just about physically has to send a cooling lower troposphere through S-SE Canada.

It's likely a subjective popsicle headache session buuuut... it depends on what one means by "looks good" If "good" requires an actual consensus depiction of a stem wound bomb under a multi contoured hornet stinger mid level anomaly, with 850 mb temperatures of -7 and all that. No- If good means "workable" ? yes. It was not workable. As a change, we are heading into a period of workable. To me that's good because it's inherently better than dog shit.

Hahaha .. I like "decisions" way better than the expected "deviations" in that context - kind of gives it a cosmic dildo vibe there. No but if we are looking for confluence? yeah that ridge node up there/quasi block is a form of confluence. It's causing DVM over a large area, so ... a way to "maybe" ( I'm just saying maybe here -- don't wanna get sacked ) think of it is home grown cold. The other aspect is that between the 9th and 17th ( last week...) there was a brief pulse of -EPO. It just wasn't very demonstrative, real nonetheless. If you loop the 850 mb anomalies in the EPS/GEFs, you can see that there has been modest cold injects into the Canadian shield. I suspect there is some chance that as the pattern is changing here over the next week ... guidance may be too conservative with the thermal distribution we are leaving. Once these small but crucial colder mass fields get entangled with the circulation under that ridge node up there, it may correct toward a better layout. I've seen this in the past. So we'll see.

just some thoughts for the general audience: My constituencies from Michigan have had a white Holiday season ( on the average). Both Lake Effect assisted and/or synoptic ... there's been enough cold around. Just not around here. It's not helping that the storm track has been averaging something like Tennessee to Ontario, either. If it were more Tennessee to Miller B, than the total mass-fields of the continent would have had been colder from Ohio to Maine, and we'd have been at least in contention over the last month. Perception is still going to be largely influenced by IMBY. Even in the best efforts to remain objective, the reader senses the author's struggle (ha ha). One has to almost be compassionate to fact that it's kind of hard to smell roses when sitting in a bed of shit. But ... we just have to struggle and realize that it's just been our heads that were stuck inside this circumstantial bag-o crap pattern for the last 3 .. 5 weeks. That's all it was. That said ... there's a pattern modulation going on as we enter the mid range ( not in 4 weeks!) It's not just the ridge nodes and L/W positioning stuff, which is leaned heavily into a +PNA--> +PNAP response, but wrt the flow characteristic too. We are losing some 2 or 3 isohypses ( hgt lines) between the blurred boundary of the HC termination latitudes vs 50-60N. Heights over Miami are < 582 in the ambience prior to wave-related height compression. This manifests in slower moving wave space movements. It manifests in slower geostrophic wind velocities as the jets circuitously wend their way around these slower moving fixtures --> shear is down in general... These observations - in the modeling mind you ... - should they pan out leads to really a different storm type. Just apply, right ? You have slower moving storms with weaker gradients. We also enter increased potential for blocking - in fact, the ridge over Manitoba thing with the REX couplet sliding underneath is quite likely an immediate physical response to the onset of the relaxed circulation mode. So the short take-away is a pattern change. Not getting into who said what and when.

Why not ?

The tech and know how has always been there. Worst case scenario is a species Darwin Award game.

Couldn't agree more. I was telling folks last night that it would really come down to lapse rates with this thing. We have 925 mb layer of piping WCB wind ... Also, having 560+ hydrostates into the area ( models ) in a cross up with that WCB jet was an indicator for mixing potential using that coarser synoptic look.

You definitely evaded my point dude, and launched into this diatribe - I just want people to test their forecast against verification - that was the only point I made. drop it. if your respond along this line it'll be to empty space

I think both longer lead linear correlations with the ENSO, to go along with ... all of it ... was pointed toward a p.o.s. December - so more irony in that if things evolve better as we escape the Holiday it's sort of a "correct extended outlook" - seems that way to me. kind of funny actually

Anyway back to the weather ... that look in the extended (Xmas to Jan 3rd ) isn't really part of the persistence I think - you know ... I'm not sure entirely what people mean by persistence now that I think about it. This pattern we're observing, what are we comparing that to? Either way, that's appears to be an rather new circulation construct/response to +PNA forcing - a mode switch that's been ( ironically!) persistent in the ensemble -derived telecons from all three. We'll see where it goes but that's still my call for a the next winter -like potential ...well, maybe "first" is more like it. But 28th -31st is kind of core days but could shoulder -

I meant that humor in jest and in general. There's a saying around Boston's sports media market: "winning is the best deodorant" I think that essence applies here. Folks just need to hands off the key board and back slowly away, and engage in other pastimes ... until such time as we are regionally at least appearing to 'win again' We just seem to be in an incredible bad batting streak and it's taking it's toll on lucidity and the better form of ranker, both.

Doesn't persistently eating shit count? LOL

False, I'm resorting to not being involved when someone is clearly hostile.

I don’t have a problem with a system being on the charts then… I’ve been advertising tail out of the month for my own reason along with everyone else… The cold air has been a real interesting mystery this year, but the GFS is actually started suppressing that system in lieu of the Canadian circulation mode – relatively new albeit… – several cycles ago. This is the first one that’s crossed the mix/snow possibility along 40 N.. Canadian looks like it turns that into a nasty ice storm for the interior. Out of a coastal would be rare but we have seen that in the past. I think the main take away is that colder scenarios are finally entering the possibility.

storm over - very light wind. zero rain. silence

If your really want some cognitive dissonance ... 'time is relative' hahahaha

I'll take that in a heart beat ... That's a fantastically fun look. Slow moving gyre with plenty of cold air on the north side of the bowl. I mean (haha) compared to where we've been? Serve me up a big plate of "blech" then. good lord -

thing is... S/SSE wind tends to have a lower tree failure threshold - it could be related to that. I mean we've had a wet autumn. The ground isn't frozen... the usual suspects, then repeating 35 mph gusts through a region that hasn't really had a lot of synoptic scaled wind this summer and fall. I remember remarking to Dryslot in our conversation a couple weeks ago, that we realliy seemed to have a low wind autumn. Of course, within a days of doing so, we get a couple of wind headlined events - of course. Anyway, the point is ...lack of 'natural pruning' adds to some vulnerability. The other aspect is that when towns go down, the surrounding towns pick up the slack - this can sometimes cause break switches to trip. They need to send out a boom truck with a fiberglass pole, and hapless lineman with big gloves to poke the switch and pray - I've seen them do this ... because I'm the last mother'fugger on my trunk and the pole is right outside my damn door. I've literally, on more times I care to recall ..., had to phone an outage of 1 single household to NGRID and have then send over a truck.

It's interesting that NWS is markedly lower in that description -

See ... I don't know why you are even turning that bold phrase when responding to anything I just said. I'm talking specifically about the scientific process. One makes a prediction, they test the prediction. Making a long lead forecast, and then being asked to go back and evaluate the success/failure, is that process. Mm ..it sounds like there is a back-story between that poster and some of y'all. Don't combine my ethic/principle above with that story. - if that is happening. I'm not stopping jack shit.