Typhoon Tip

This reminds me of an early November air mass the last 24 hours. 54 yesterday was the ping high but it was more likely 52-ish in the ambience. Then it was down to 29 this AM with lots of frost... Now, we're supposedly heading for 60 F - apparently a record out at Logan. But considering the record highs we've seen take place over the last 7 years in February's ... kind of seems like a low bar achievement. lol. Anyway, it's not a warm burst" event to make 60 out of today if you ask me. Not when there's frost in the morning... It's just a mild up - Overnight we fropa but 850's only down to 0C ... I've seen 60 F over snow pack with and 850 mb of 0C in mid February. Tomorrow seems like an easy MOS buster day... feeble wind from 300 ds degs at 8 knots, and zip cloud ... screams super -adiabatic highs. I'm just suggesting that we'll probably still eclipse 50 and might send sun-exposed "nook temperatures" pretty warm relative to the ambience - ... I know, only an excruciating nerd thinks about this kind of tedium but that's how I roll. I have a fetish about this stuff from mid Feb to early May. What can I say. Tomorrow night is when it gets cold. Tomorrow sets the area up with a prep atmosphere...and when the sun goes down we quickly hemorrhage the gossamer BL warmth to space. It'll be something like mid 20s over top low DPs. That's our event entrance air mass... Man, saturate that and if anything, the models are too warm in BL. ..which is a better performance than we've seen in recent years. I don't know what's going on later in the week with that clipper/"critter" idea ..seems to have vanished. Meh... it was fragile to begin with so no expectations on that. In fact, the pattern remains rife with potential out there between the 19th and 26th or so... It a good period for speculation - we just don't have much of an emerged system. But that's the thing with featureless volatility ... if the models realize something and inject it into that domain, outlooks can change rather quickly... So when we say 20th or 24th or 27th ...these just periods to watch for that. But that's an energetic flow with lots of hydrostatic gradient N/S through the mid latitude continent - it's higher octane. Get a load of the 00z Euro with -30 to -38 C at 850 mb over southern Canada out there at the end of the run. That region SE of there that has that open COL look? That's a placeholder just anxiously waiting for a one of those features to be injected into it like a 16 year-old waits for the panty's to uncling

By fall rates? perhaps .. I'm thinking 12" might be more common due to speed of system translation. Maybe a couple 13.5ers for bragging rights.. which technically justifies the top side of that range but the interquartile density/distribution is 12" Now, someone pops one of those zomb 7" hours with a couple of CG .. that makes that easier. But I'm not sure CSI is very factor-able being on the left exit-left entrance side of the jet. 12" in 4 hours is good stomp and I don't see the heaviest axis lasting very long in any location ... in and out. It's likely to go down hill outside really fast. You see it start snowing so you run out to the store, and by the time your coming home your wondering if that was such a good idea type visibility problems. The lifting mechanics will move in/through quite fast

It's impressive how persistent that's been in the guidance considering it's a torpedo in the N/stream ...tracing back it's coming from Siberia. Like how in the f is the modeling doing that ? But.. I wouldn't begin to speculate who gets what and where in that. "Little critters that Bite" bite because of the erratic/unpredictability of their nature. just sayn'

It's a tad more amplified ... but as far as stream interaction it's about right on queue from the previous/extrapolation - it's a partial deal. The N/stream is sagging and that "tips" the flow more n out ahead ...which lifts the everything in latitude. This is would probably go on to being a somewhat more prolific impact at least to NYC/CT/RI as a guesstimate

Doubt it will be that mild... but if the sun did come out in time, yeah ... steam dogs on sunny sides of roof tops. But it may also be breezier than we think. This this thing's heading below 980 mb prior to 70 W so there may be a bit of wind for a couple of hours as this is ending, too.

Notable, Dec 9 2005 leveled 15" in Acton ( about 25 mi W of Boston), a foot of which fell in 3 hours... There were two concentric bands that snowed S++ back then, with visibility down to that not seen since the Dec 23 1997 'snow bomb' event. Basically < 50 feet. About 1/4 mi vis between the meso bands. SO it was a 50 feet --> 1/4 mi --> 50 feet = 12"

I agree with Ray. This is a rather impressive analog just on the scratch surface appeal, between the ICON/Euro blend ( or just Euro below), vs Dec 9 2005. Both events moving swiftly... right down to the sun set likely visible in the evening of this one, just like that one back whence. I mean the NCEP Library version (left) may as well be one of the present Euro ensemble members of today -

Man, no shit ... S+ low visibility at dawn ... sun shining by 2pm

Ha! word but you know... I was thinkin' might be the first time we've successfully witnessed "snow on snow" take place since several seasons? I mean if that continues to evolve. It seems we always interlude a melt back or some sort of pack correction warming between events since really 2015... I might not be right about that but it feels that way, anywho

Mm what y'all who posted about the CMC neglected to mention is that it was a significant N/W trend compared to the previous cycle.. Also slightly slower - I'd say that is a nod in favor of these late corrections we're seeing from its peers. Easy to imagine the next run just doing so even more.

Actually a little more than a mere critter on this run - implied southern/SE NH

I think it should be pretty obvious by now... I don't typically like to be involved in that 'are they or are they not' intention stuff... but given the large sample size. Plus, ...I reserve the right to "troll the synoptics" itself when the snarky mood strikes me as unbearable. LOL No but ... if this is that obvious from a given source, an institutional culture of disregarding the source ...it just reduces it to negligible noise and is treated that way. But for some reason, people keep trying to engage in opposition to the antics, which is most likely what the perp wants them to do. It's not rocket science. Solution? don't -

yeah... where as I don't hold onto previous ideas - I'm very mutable in short order if the typical trustier indicators go into a d(x) ... I can change my opinion pretty fast. Especially post the solar min, when that's happening during a climate era where warm "impulse" behavior is very real in the atmosphere. ... anyway... you get it -... Hey Will, ...check out the "little critter" on the 12z ICON. Reminds me a little of Feb 2002 only not as cold maybe... There's actually two - the one way out there has very little predictive value ( of course ..>) but that looks like it's en route to being a NJ modeler

There are two things taking place along the cinema of this ICON solution that are interesting - fwis 1 there's a subtle more N/stream plunge into the Lakes when the S/stream is nearing 90 W ...Instead of imposing confluence ... it rather lifts everything in the stream at that time on a more NE trajectory as opposed ENE. It's veering the deep layer steering field within which the S/stream is embedded. That takes the total cyclogen manifold on a closer pass... 2 ... the S/stream is like 5 measly units of power more robust, not very readily discernable... but crucially it hold onto more ability to mechanize said cyclogenesis... We end up with a solid upper moderate/low end major ordeal ... The ICON has been flirting the two streams in one way or the other ... more so than other guidance to this point. But it hasn't been showing much continuity in doing so... by doing so in different ways.

Oh, yeah ... 'this storm's performance' expectation-wise

Also, I've been watching the NAM as this has been coming into the denser more physical sounding array over the Pac NW ... it seems the handling of the S/stream is reasonably consistent (perhaps slightly more robust), but what's actually been interesting more so is that the western 'elbow' of the N/stream dangles more precipitously as the S/stream is approaching 100W - It's right out the end of the run, so ... obviously the real deterministic value here is lower. But it does help the "analytic imagination" ( if you will...) to see how N/stream could be more involved in phasing. I'd also point out that the ICON at 18z yesterday did show this feature phasing in - it's sort of a smaller sneaky S/W inject but that spun our cyclone down to 974 near Block Island when that happened and put a band of thunder snow over PVD... Just thought I'd mention.

How do you think about your SE zones relative to 'normal' climate there? - I realize this season has been lacking. I mean in the objective sense re the former

Tentatively thinking there's something around the 20th still...but it may be more overrunning or 'swfe' ...etc. in nature. Not sure about the 24th? I'm starting to see what Scott was fearing yesterday materializing in the telecon projections (numerical) ... in short, once post the 20th the EPO and PNA are neutralized down to almost no skill. Thing is...that could get uglier for winter enthusiasts when least excuse imagined, year to year now... CC apparently crashes the late February party ... Without a steady state cold influx at hemispheric scales, "warming" is being proven time and time over recent years to be a predisposition... So, any such relaxation of the pattern ...heh, a warm flash/bounce potential is implied. Sort of disproportionately more so than people may think. Despite even those who are willing to embrace the truth about the future state of this thing ... even amongst us we act surprised sometimes - But we'll see. These extended telecons are also more variable/'mop ended' ...so it's just an early recognition for now. That would be post the 25th which crowds the 24th a bit. just sayn'

That actually leaped out at me. Not only is the wave space a bit deeper in the z coordinate, but if you toggle the previous run you might get an impression of the entire field slightly rotating cyclonic relative to the position of all features. That's very important as a more subtlety if you ask me, because when dealing in "needle threading" ( have to tell you ...I'll be happy to put this winter in the books and move on into spring solidly early if I could trade these mother f'ing needle thread system types! ) ... it's like correcting the trajectory of an asteroid: you don't have to move it but an inch early on along it's pathway ... that inch ends up being miles of difference farther down along its course. Also, the bulk wave space/mechanics of interest are currently an "inside slider" over eastern Washington and Oregon, having just arrived over land between 06z and 12z here this morning.... I find it interesting that as that's happened, we get this subtle but necessary more robust appeal by the 06z GFS and the 06z EPS means combined...

ICON bombed on this run. thunder snow and a wind burst for 3-4 hrs

Yup 20th

It's actually the weak S/W and attendant back side flow going normal to the hydrostatic gradient ( i.e., CAA) ... which scoots by overnight Saturday night - while not a huge deal, it is crucial and starts that process ... The advent of 'sneaky' cold advection 30 ... 36 hours prior to arrive disturbances is quite highly correlated - for those that don't know to look for that

I mean the mid level jet mechanics are approaching upper bound material with wind exceeding 130 kts at 500 in a jet tube that spans WI to S of LI. wtf

Okay, ... a gift for Scott, Ray and Kevin Today marks the first day removed having exited the perennial solar minimum, after spending 91.25 days since Nov 8, in the cave of winter This is now the solar transition where moving forward the +delta in daily irradiance begins the equinox acceleration. yay!