Typhoon Tip

absolute best satellite picture in possibly many, many years

my window units have set dormant - still in the sills ... cuz i'm procrastinating - since the end of july, a time when my new mini split/compressor tech came on-line. it's awesome. runs nearly silent and chills the main living area or where ever in mere moments, even when it's like 89/74 outside, using very low electric power.

wow... top 1 hour, if not day, out there. picturesque island cumulus set before an abyss of cobalt blue are not enough to prevent solar penetrating warmth immediately upon exposure. 74/53. no wind amid an ambience of probably the purest air this planet can create ...

just at a coarse look the featuring nearing 10N/30W looks like a 'zygote' entity to me. in fact it's already got a llv inflow into the western aspects, which interests me because no model really does much with it [ edit, actually the gfs's 6z appears to]. models seem to be focused further west along the itcz where presently there's only vague markers from what i can see.

yeah... at least if this over the top high pressure is going to cheat summer (suggestive in the fact that the hydrostatic heights are still above 564 dm!) merely enabling cool weather enthusiasts into thinking they're winning in that tick-for-tat back and forth pointless pass-time, i'm certainly glad that it is at least sunny up here along along rt 2.

i love how a broad band speed, and ping test, demonstrates zero lag and/or connectivity issues, respectively, to any site in the www, yet when attempting to connect to tropical tidbits i'm getting this You are currently offline, or your network connection is having trouble, and we are unable to show you the page you requested. it's a free site so it is what it is but there are other aspects about tt that are operationally weird. when doing cross guidance analysis, the site defaults to latest releases, no matter what, which throws off the interval comparison between them when in case usage. pivotal for example doesn't do this and is thus a superior product. and it also doesn't put a comm problem that is clearly his, back in your lap

they had that at 11:30 am tho or something way earlier than everywhere else, the closest of which at the time was 84

coils up a solid tc and has it moving along the archipelago to emerge near the bahamas toward the end of the run

91/70

i'm pretty resolute in the notion that we're being 'protected', so to speak, from experiencing what cc-attribuation is already capable of doing

impressive 12z ggem run

it can't be 90 at bdl

this looks like it could just as well be the climate footprint but fwiw cpc's september is 50-60% chances for above normal

this is the 12z Euro's depiction for 2pm tomorrow indicating the 'real' frontal position at that time placing all CT zones in contention for some impressive heat ind values - just playin' devil's advocate here

there's also home grown season

just to foot this meme, the mjo desk are negging the teleconnection through mid month for the mdr, too. wah wah wahhh. they do remind [however] that we're nearing climo peak and that may offset the signals but ... i'm not sure is see a pathway even there, without a better tw trafficking behavior. there's been a dearth of robust waves and the general counts have been down.

pretty cool 'white squall' event over southern lake michigan https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Michigan-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

culture's only gonna get more heat sensy in the future. was discussing the emergence of the 'synergistic heat' phenomenon, as a new paradigm that needs special attention or even categorically codified, with an nws director and she was in agreement ... indicating it's on the desks. that was a year ago this last June

omg rockford il is putting up a 97/79 this hour. that can't be right. altho some sites around n il are also tainting

mm i dunno bout that - could be conservative. it's currently 93/77 in kalamazoo mi and about that in south bend in there's 24-hr lag telecon with the lower lakes and sne i dunno, maybe it shunts, but it's mid 80s and mid 60s dp at a few sites now - it's not synoptically cooler around here tomorrow

Blue Hill/'Southern New England Weather Conference' is scheduled for October 26 down in Canton. Looks like the programming is interesting. ripped from the website, https://bluehill.org/join-blue-hill-observatory-for-the-2024-southern-new-england-weather-conference-on-october-26th/ “How the Weather Defines our History and Impacts the Future.” “Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning in Atmospheric Models” “NOAA’s “Climate Ready Workforce” Initiative” “Extreme Weather Events Playback” “Extreme Weather & the Symbiotic Relationship Between Weather and Climate” “Climate Change in New England—How Fast Are We Warming” “Winter 2024-2025 Seasonal Outlook” - presentation provided by Raymond; NSA reps will be onsite ... just fyi

yeah, i'm read/heard. probably should've wrote 'considering' instead of 'figuring'

yeah gotta admit for those seeking entertainment distractions by the weather arm of natural wonders, your wrestling with a paraplegic when looking over that modeling cinema. ooph every time the models start leaning warm departures ...they yaw the entire hemisphere into an early autumn. then, yaw back the other way. reality being something in between is about as uninspiring as a dynamic realm the size of a whole planet is physically capable of dulling our senses with. and every time those oscillations happen, the posts by the respective warm vs cool season enthusiasts hang their trophies from the other side's taint hairs. better things to do than spectator that nimroddery. but unless the tropics gin up something even fractionally as impressive as the social-media's heretofore bundemental skill's prediction for this season, this is why 2nd to april, the two times of the year can be quite the slog

pick a model ...they've been off and on showing at least a 'dent' in the itcz pressure layouts suggesting at least tw's in that range. some have even identified by the 2nd or 3rd i maintain, not sal, not aggregated shear stress ...not some fantasy sudden collapse of the tropical atlantic ssts ... the primary reason for the lack of development has been very spatial. it's the low motility of tws. hard to make babies with tail-less spermies

it appears that early august period of time, back in 2012, is whence something happened ... something took place, however unique/rare, that triggered an ensuing deeper nadir than fore or aft years. that outlier could be telling. figuring out precisely why might be useful. heh outlier to this sample size, for one. which may or may not be an important distinction. i don't think it is less important tho, personally. it happened once. it can happen again. trope, but unfortunately apropos. and if/when that happens, the next time it will have the melt-advantage of doing so after an aggregated acceleration from 2012 to 2025's worth of CC. ... well, it's rather intuitive to see where that goes. to spell it out, an abrupt 'fall off' - probably another 'leap year' that both surpasses 2012's scalar depth, but a greater delta wrt that local 10-year running average. not to be a monger of peril or anything, but the fact of reality is, we are experience and observing more and more synergistic events in the objective reality of earth - those that surpass leading indicators/predictions. we could just as well be seeing a suppression of absolute 'melt capacitance' by fortuitous circulation modes ... and just not be aware of it (despite everything that is known). when those 'lucky' offets break down or even reverse some future year, you get an over compensating rebound. seems pretty obvious