Typhoon Tip

Well, in fairness, I would not have avered +8 either… I just think with climate change being an undeniable enhancement at this point effecting pattern circulation modes … how much shit are you guys going to eat before you start fucking admitting the taste - I mean “you guys” in the royal sense The truth shall set you free of course, we can still have a big winter But the return rate of that is lengthening … like a nightmare hallway

I did ... I said it last summer/autumn that I thought this winter would be just as disappointing as the last several ...with wind velocity anomalies shredding storm chances and above normal temps with below normal snow fall. The only problem is, I said it pretty much just like that - I don't engage in seasonal outlooks in general. But nothing about this winter surprised me. I'm just very stoic about it. I don't give a shit like most. I like to see big storms but I don't trash my soul when it doesn't happen, or experience psychotropic withdraw symptoms like those that carry on with chart addiction. It is what it is... we spring for while. We'll see what happens in the ides of the month.

yeah, make sure the most damage to seasonal dependency happens in PF's neighborhood -

May be warmer in N/NW New England than NYC/Boston during early next week...

MOS getting embarrassed today.... already 52 here and we're now far long enough along the solar transition (^) that we can extend the heating hours at least thru 2pm.

Just a coarse look at the spatial layout, it appears the more likely time for trash can lids taking flight is immediately post fropa.

Not if we believe Lanse Bosart's paper related/correlating polar index bias subsequent to recurving tropical cyclone frequency. It's pretty clear in the data, and also conceptual/intuitive why it may be so ... but dumping repeating TCs over the western oceanic Basins lends to strengthening the polar vortex. Baffin Island Low ( for ex) and that's more canonical to +NAO. I saw his presentation on this at a conference some 25 years ago... not sure if there was anything on the matter since.

let's not start spin-nipping away at the mild period, either. It's AN through the 9th or 10th - probably should just keep it at that for now. I don't personally believe that spurious weird spin up along the SE coast has to be real. Its happenstance in these guidance is not allowing the surface return flow around the SE retreating high pressure to orient more SW between D6 and 9. Remove and/or weaken that and the surface flow ends up SW and that's a different implication for sky and temps.

I actually did grin a bit when cursory eval of the charts this morning, but the warm burst idea was never actually depicted/materialized in the daily charts... It's more of an intellectual thing with me - this phenomenon of "synergistic heat" events - and finding a means to recognize when they may occur given conventional methods. The initial "signal" ( for lack of better word ) was a +EPO/-PNA/+NAO, while the spatial ensemble means were also ridging. That seems like a good candidate to test modeling for that phenomenon. However, there's enough coherent/observable modeling aspects that have emerged since that don't incline that way. These synergy heat bombs are a measured result-based phenomenon going on around the world. It's when the synoptic parameters and forecast techniques, et al, point out a warmer pattern, but the model physics appear more adequate in getting the warm pattern correct, not the spiking at some point during the over all warm period - waiting to be nearly right on top of the event if at all.

Yeah .. agreed. Was tracking the possibility that a more substantial 'heat burst' synoptic interval might nest in there but that appears to be shrinking pretty obviously at this point. One aspect that is still out there for me is a regression beyond the 10th regardless of what happens in the foreground. In fact, there's already telecon support - granted it is out at the edge of the "probability horizon," the NAO appears prone to tanking by both experience at this time of year and blah blah. For winter enthusiasts ... pump the breaks. 'Have to keep in mind that July is still coming, and in order to get there, the sun is climbing ...and it does so at a particularly fast rate during March. It does begin to diabatically force the hemisphere, detectably so even between March 1st and the 10th. BUT, if overcome, look out! Some of the biggest bombs in history have takin' place in that window for good reason. If there is an anomalous wave in the flow that entangles a pocket of cold ...the whole thing can get a kind of diabatic "steroid injection" ... etc. Not saying that's happening... but the NAO is unanimously sloping toward -1.5 SD, and it's not a "spike" ( which is dubious behavior for that particular index), but takes place over a week's time and is descending along a non-perturbed trajectory - gives it more credence. Meanwhile, the PNA rises from -3 SD this week, toward neutral. It's not exactly positive? The +delta is likely more telling with that. It's just the way the 'experimental' extended range has continued to look.

I've been pretty vocal myself that I thought mid March may regress some after an early balm period (maybe that's a twitter thing? ). Not sure of a regressed month, no ... I'm just basing it on the last 30 years of "existential climate" during both autumns and springs - it's pretty clear in my own memory that large scale driven warm surges have faded into often enough -NAOs. To wit, that has some basic synoptic arguments to back it up I remember the October snow storm back in 2011 - can you believe that will be 13 years this fall ? whole decade, poof ... Anyway, it was near 80 F in mid early to Mid October, than we had cold nor-easter with cat paws, followed a week later by that event. That's an extreme case, granted. Having said all that.. sure, March 2012's probably have a return rate. I got to say ...it's hard to 'standardize' any of this though, because springs over the last 10 years have been wildly warm and cold at both ends.

I don't doubt it. hey what were those dates on that?

After a decent attempt yesterday ...the operational runs regressed to finding any plausible physics they can find to abase their own ensemble means. All of which actually are either the same or even more so amplified with the ridging we've been tracking.

We'll see how things materialize in the runs going forward but I'd remind that we are tracking the 80+ phenomenon as a new spring "threat"... It is a harmful influence too. Orchard crops will respond and that's a problem for obvious reasons, when onward in time the warm troposphere migrates into a -NAO phase and we risk freezing

I kinda wanna start a thread for what could be a historic heat burst - conjectural +15+ diurnal means for 3 days ? ... We don't get ours in July's like they do in Eurasia, probably do to converging continental with subtropical meridian flows. It's hard to extend BL when the DPs 78 degrees when there's whole country's aerosol anus pointing right at us, while we're so close to sea level/air density. I suspect that's why we've been getting so many 92/77 days under 590 hgts. They're doing 104 in Iowa with that where their sigma starts at 700 feet. Anyway, we get our synergy heat in springs it seems. Can't wait until BTV is 100 on May 8th while HFD is 82 with a S wind.

Definitely must have been some regional variance there... It's anecdotal but it was horrible down here. You'd pull into your driveway, park the car, and in broad daylight sometimes even with the sun shining, the mosquitoes would immediately be bouncing off the windows of the car. Closer to dusk you ran to the front door and hoped you didn't drop your keys fumbling around in haste because there'd already be several of them landing on your forearms, while the atonal chorus hummed around your ears. Ticks were everywhere, too.

I didn't know this thread started. I'm sure it's been covered but... the 12z GFS oper continues to trend toward a more cohesive/less perforated eastern continent ridge in the first week of March. 3-6th may even have a synergistic warm burst in there. 582 dm non-hydrostatic hgts near-by our latitude that early ceilings the anomaly products. For now the modeled hydrostats are held up toward 552. It's as though the models don't integrate diabatic modulation of the tropospheric sounding because that does that every year/early spring when a warm up is in the 8-12 range - they edge the 850's on the cool side, and limit 2-m results. Given that surface pressure pattern everywhere E of the Rockies and S of 55 N across the conus under said burgeoning ridge, in a world that has a decadal history of warmth explosions ...that seems like an overall candidate period for warmth to exceed present guidance.

Two days later ...this is a hinting at synoptic feed-back synergistic warming ...582 dm height to nearly western NS that early is impressive

Cleaner, much less perforated ridge has trended toward coherence over these last immediate 3 cycles of the operational GFS. Each one was a little improved over the last.

It seems to be the last of the -EPO's cold loading from last week's dive. Can trace the air mass back... And it does appear to be the last as this week the transition into an entirely new paradigm gets underway. Who's to say if it sets the table for the whole spring (we may regress mid month), but at least that first week of March, the overnight op versions looking more concerted with the ens telecon projection. Lawns tinting green with forsythias

It's probably not entirely true but I've read they don't move slowly. They can run ... and run at you.

It's nice to see some data ... (if the above proves veracious enough - ) that corroborates what I wrote about a few posts ago. Paraphrasing ... the transition to green power ( at least in our society ...) is so far completely wrongly incentivized. Really, these are just greedy, morally questionable at best venture enterprises. They are "gray-area sociopath" outfits, only seeing opportunity there that presupposes any kind of connection to why it is actually needed. These "solar programs" are a complete waste of time and only adding to the problem. There has to be a broadly sweeping, cost-controlled social program that diverts humanity's extinction pathway. I have a friend that is about to pull the trigger for a 58K installation cost, up on the roof-top of his sub-colonial sized suburban home. He's trying to argue that rebate programs will offset the coast... and how that and monthly loan repayment is less than paying for NGRID over the long haul. Okay, buuut... rebate programs (government) come from tax payers ultimately ... It's just redistributing the huckerstism, white-washing the background truth of how the econ mathematics works. He says as long as his monthly bills go down. This is stupid... sorry. It's wrong on both ends. He's not worried about GW in that arithmetic - he wants his monthly power bills to come down. The purveyors of Solar PV and so forth, aren't interested in offsetting GW ... they're seeing a profit wagon. They're not doing it for the right reason in other words.

ticks I imagine will be at an all-time bad this warm season. Lack of sustained cold seems to be correlated to all these increasing numbers of critters. Not just that ... but the whole invading southern species thing. Either taking advantage of a retreating frost line that no one in here admits while claiming they don't deny climate change ( snark intended - ), or even climate refugee diaspora in the animal kingdom in general, there's weird colored bugs with poky parts everywhere now that I don't recall ever seeing having lived my life along 40 N. The week after this last Thanks Giving, I pulled a tick off my person. I'm like Dec 2nd?! We're pullin' f'n ticks off in the winter now I guess. Not idea where that I picked up that vampire. I don't see how the last 10 years of statistical changes in the insect population was alleviated by this particular winter's shirking.

Operational models ran a bit milder overall for the latter mid/ext range.

To me ...that frontal whole thing reminds me of one of those early December S gale deals. Like, we don't typically see those this late in winter. weird. Really, think back - steeply kinked baroclinic axis with gradient compression on the warms side is so November.. Only in this case, it doesn't herald in the first cold change ...