Typhoon Tip

Good ...maybe it'll translate to less warm intrusion during the first half of this thing for NYC-CT-RI

Now this is a west loading -EPO

I mean this thing's got a ceiling folks. I think we've kissed it with some of these solution over the last couple of run cycles. Probably we're bouncing at this point forward, with some runs less and some run back to this ... but there is an upper limit to what this thing can do given the input.

Can't keep upping the dosage

Would it be the first time an NFL game was delayed due to ligntning in a snow storm ?

Waiting on the Euro before signing on the dotted line re major event - didn't like it's comparatively paltry performance overnight but every model's allowed to take a nap on a system for a run or two just the same. All other available guidance into a blender pours a cup of low end major criteria impact. As 'Wiz pointed out, duration may keep a major system to upper tier moderate impact. Really a matter or 2 or 3 hours of difference there - Somewhat multi-faceted: snow ... particularly on an unrehearsed civility. It's been a unwinter-like and probably that lack of testing can be dated back a couple of years. HFD to Boston's western subburbs choking to 14" in a rapid fall rate is a regional scale - it's not the same thing as a couple of towns here. wind ... shores and to some short distance inland through snow loaded infrastructure inducing power outages.

Thunder's happening in this, no question.

OH you and I are golden here. It's not our complaint privilege on this one -

You're psychologist would be proud of you for rehearsing that self-control over your depression management without intervention of Librium - lol

did anyone ever check the CIPs analogs? that 12/9/05 system - you know we talked about that last week, but it keeps reminding us of it. Might be worth it to check.

Imagining an NFL game called not for the low visibility snow but for the lightning

Yeah,... I realize you're rooting for that and attempting to will it into reality ( lol just bustin') but in all seriousness, I'm not sure that doesn't triple point. But even if it doesn't there's enough cold leading and boundary layer drag to lift the wind off the deck. That doesn't appear to be a well mixed momentum to the sfc type of deal - at this time. It can change between now and then

So tfwiw, I just looked over the NAM It's clearly more powerful with the resulting S/W product that it then moves under Long Island by 1 to 1.5 deg lat. That's a climate-based signal for the HFD-BED for one. But, it's not even as linear in structure anymore; it's flat out negatively tilting and closing a 500 mb isohypses - What's interesting is that it's sans the WAA snow burst on the front side in lieu of just correcting the whole storm's ferocity/expression from 12z Sunday throughout the day.

The issues aloft you mention, notwithstanding ... the bold appears to be the bigger constraint when negotiating p-type ( from what I'm seeing). Firstly, the storm's synopsis and features may be too far NW-N? It's been discussed in the past ... the NAM tends to have a NW bias over the western Atlantic Basin with handling coastal cyclogen and subsequent tracks - particularly outside 36 to 48 hour window. In addition to above, there is also a known tendency for systems of more than less S origin, to bump N as they move into shorter ranges. Those are two disparate error considerations. This run of the NAM strikes me as logistically having both those issues questionable. Or not, but the point being, ...since they are valid I would be careful.

Not the 10th/11th ... 13-16th has a greater potential for an east correction. Vague at this range (as yet) but that period should be watched.

It appears the American models are coalesced ( more than less..) overnight. Everything is on board and pretty well accounted for sounding-wise. This doesn't mean there won't be instra wave tussling in the trough dynamics as this open wave system cuts through, but by and large those "giga" changes won't really ( well ... "shouldn't" - famous last words!) realize much difference to the end results. Looks like a lower ratio snow S of HFD -NW RI to Boston and the N. Shore, with rising ratios pretty quickly in the interior. Some rain for a time in that region, prior to subtle wind backing with deepening low, cannot be ruled out. The region from BDL CT to BED MA could be a jack pot where crossing up QPF with higher ratio/colder profile. Both the 12km and 32km NAM are interesting at a closer analysis of their cinema of the event. After an initial WAA burst of snow there is a relaxation for 6 or so hours ...then Sunday between 12z and 18z there's coherent reinvigoration over the N-W arc of the circulation, along with both a hesitation in the sfc low, and 4 or so additional MB deepening. This appears to coincided with the arrival of the left exit region (provided by 2ndary jet maxim) passing over the vortex and most likely causing an excitation of the ongoing event during that window... I wonder if there is a brief pulse of wind concern coming into the coastal zones, where at that time there may be sticky snow loading and gusts to 40mph/associated CCB genesis upon exit. The global models may or may not illustrate that kind of discrete look as above, but the genera of the synopsis/blend/consensus are not exactly refuting what those higher resolution meso models are doing. I'm curious if the RGEM is doing something similar Sunday morning.

I told everyone the next run of this model was likely to go large late last night... I explained why in a small paragraph - I mean with the tsunamis of posts though... Anyway, I feel pretty good about not getting missed at this point. If something like that were to happen it would be a blind-sighted bust

Yeah, I don’t know… With a growing consensus heading another direction vs the CMC’s track record … that’s a bit of a buyer’s beware solution

It’s putting all that emphasis on the lead short wave, which it holds the identity of longer… It has virtually no interaction with the second wave

These differences look largely like noise to me - there could still be a future bigger move or modulation in the system or not, but this is minutia between the 18 Z and 0Z

I think the 18Z was a beginning of capitulation … probably related to sampling improvement. Fwiw

I want it recorded that these changes became apparent upon the relay into the denser/physically realized sounding grid. My question on that was over assimilation, being as advanced as it is, still has trouble in these longitudinal high-speed flow types… Separate conversation just sayin’

Heh if only that ran out to 96 hrs. I mean just for shits and giggles like … that low probably bombs when that 2nd burst of mid level mechanics unzips over top

Yeah GFS closing the gap in time in my estimation… But people are gonna rank on it

Euro back to king ?