Typhoon Tip

Pretty elaborate differences between the GEFs and EPS, differences that are also well enough defined in operational Euro and GFS, too. About half the GEFs members agree that a substantive southerly wave will get captured in the wholesale trough amplifying through the Lakes ...getting sucked up along the lead baroclinic axis there. The other half look more like the EPS's recent means ... ...which, the vast majority do not lift any southerly wave at all. That is interestingly divergent for ensemble systems to be 120-144 hours out with that amount of discordance. Meanwhile, the operational Euro doesn't lift any southern system up at all, either - not a shocker ... the Euro ensemble system is typically less dispersive. Most just drift the southerly wave E off the lower M/A to spin down a slow death somewhere between Goergia and Bermuda. The differences start really at 120. Both model systems identify that southerly wave, coherently taking into the Tennessee Valley area, but that's where the products diverge pretty significantly. It's unclear which way we should go... A pure operational Euro solution spares us a horrible weekend. It may be cool, with a big late polar high temporarily anchoring N of Maine ... damming pressure down the coast and onshore breezes, but at least provides fairer skies with no 39.3 F "soothing" rain. A pure operational GFS solution is misery rains and horrible shut-in weather for Saturday, and probably not much better Sunday because the backside of that escaping system is CAA with actual cold implicated, gusting over 40mph. The Euro solution has more climate precedence actually. The GFS solution has more of the same, unrelenting sore butt ... Trend is valid forecasting metric - kidding. The differences between are not resolvable with very much confidence when incorporating either one's ensemble means - GEFs being split, and the EPS looking more similar to the operational. This is probably one of the most epic model battles we've seen in quite some time, to be less than 144 hours with this much disagreement. The only problem is ... the consequences of either solution are ultimately not very meaningful - so who cares... LOL. Probably, something in between in reality, as that always seems to be the result when these wars happen. I care though... I really particularly loathe 38 F rain

I don't think I've seen a ECMWF AIF run that didn't have a deep winter bomb wobbling around New England in this time range - I guess it's a methadone clinic for next winter when we inevitably deal with another head scratching seasonal failure, despite all these leading Phillip K. Dickian dissertations

May be a handsome vehicle to those into that sort of thing ... buuut, unfortunately, with what is known of the bigger picture and the objective reality of what it means to planet ... that is tantamount to the trope of putting lipstick on a pig. An environmental pig. That's not what drove me to mention it the other day. It's something I just thought of. My snark back then was way more self-centered ( admittedly...). I've never been that into automobile-related special interest arenas. I went to couple 'car shows' with my dad as a kid. m'yeah. okay. But what I really wanted were those chartered Cessna flights I got to go on for my birthday. Being in the sky among the clouds, peering down over the land.. Flying never made me nervous and still doesn't. Love that. That, and watching tornadoes carve canyons through the negligent arrogance of towns built where tornadoes were first... But I guess airplanes choke the skies with fossil fuel farts too. Ha Basically, I'm too idealistic ( for most, no doubt - ) and though it may sound heavy handed, it's really just me and my own opinions. Ex, I don't think of New Orleans as a depot of intense jazz culture and "Mardi Gras" - French for "fat Tuesday." Like putting lipstick on the proverbial pig above. It's sort of apropos named, Fat Tuesday, for having the gall to ever build and carry on with a city there in that particular geography and planetary circumstances. 200 years of culture? Don't care. Doesn't matter. It was dumb then, still is. Katrina didn't even hit New Orleans. Yet any warning was apparently upon dead heads = rebuild instead. So that when the real Katrina does come, as tax payers we'll have to bail out the whole region to manifest New Orleans 2.0 ... and around and around we go. I'm kidding a little bit here, but still-

Heh... 40s might be harder to come by in two distinct impulses ...each lasting 2 days. It'll be close though. But, I still think once we get past the 25th we'll see some alleviation. This is all happening because that top flow structure/-EPO ... dumping downstream over the continent. not sure how we get out of it - why fight it. Ha. no but beyond then the spigot looks to shut off. People ( straw man here - ) forget that we warm up very fast with very minimum physical exertion required as part of the new CC era that is for some reason chaffing bum rims to admit. Even ranking GOP power brokers are leaning toward acceptance of what is incontrovertible at this point... See, denial happens because there are no consequences for denying. It's that simple. No other reason, thus ...equally no reason to recourse. If someone's denial caused them pain, they would stop denying. It's really rather remarkable how acutely succinct evolution's mastery was in creating the undeniability of discomfort. By the time CC has become uncomfortable enough that even human tech entitlement/protections fail, it will be too late ( not winking at you per se - you get it) Digression complete ... Just saying, shut off the spigot, we go from struggling into the 40s ... beyond 80 in just 2 or 3 days, a kind of short duration whip that didn't as frequently occur spanning previous climate generations.

And I'm so impatient that if we got this "last two weeks," during the first half of April, it'd be inching me closer to pulling the trigger on a relo to San Diego ... or Frisco or Tuscany. Anywhere of some less rectal glue spring climate ... But looking at those grid of numbers he posted, I think it's more amazing that the top 20 in history have all happened since 1999 - the last 25 years. 25 years, vs, any time since Industrial farting white man stole the world

yeah, a thunderstorm to demarcate the seasonal change into winter

There's a d(mass field) perturbation event about to unfold through our side of the hemisphere - not sure it is H.A. qualitative. In fact, it is not in any objective sense of what that statistical science concluded. "H.A. events," as they've been denoted since the publication some 30 years ago ... were focused in +d(PNA) - switching mode from negative --> positive. The paper does not discuss switching mode from positive --> negative. There was also explicitly stated that there was a weaker ( vague skill ) correlation when moving +d(NAO) - switching it's mode from negative to positive. In principle, any time there is a large mass field distortion, that "probably" qualifies as a period of interest. Events of any kind in the natural geophysical environment only happen at all because a state of rest enters a non-state of rest - such is the case when disturbing the quiescent state of the field being observed. You disrupt, there's an attempt to restore, and the storm happens as consequence. From that I am not completely opposed to the idea. But a +PNA --> -PNA with a rising EPO isn't technically covered in that, which has become both a seminal paper but often misused.

yeah I guess. I'm not really part of that banter battle, tho. Just a relaying the chart trajectories.

Cold Monday night with sub 520 dm hydrostatic hgts. There’s no heat in that atmosphere

'least we're getting 60 F blue bird beauty on a Saturday this time... draw the shades next week and don't come out until the end of the month sometime.

Series of smaller eruptions fractured the inner cone bed and the ocean caved in all at once and flooded the subterranean magma chamber

heh..yeah. I think the better question, tho, is does that even exist. Very little to no continuity from the 00z run. I mean it's futile to assess your question if it's unlikely to be real in the first place. who knows

How about the Euro's 12" of rain for DCA to PHL ...talkin some big ass sultania

Jesus Christ ... have to close this f'n ap you people talkin' about f'n trucks? ooh ya . Where's the emoji of gun and bullet going through head when you need it -

Oh, if I had my druthers? right there with you. I don't care much for the cold and snow and winter fairs ... really once the calendar passes about February 20th every year. Obviously history is adorned with other ideas through March and sometimes April. Hell, in 1976 there was a 15" in the Worcester Hills in May. I didn't say my personal druthers were necessarily realistic. Anyway, I don't deny the seasonal trend but therein is some trouble. I'm seeing changes in the daily operational handling of the hemispheric circulation mode that allow aspects to slow - or are trying to. The those changes introduce some question in trend reliance. GFS has always been both the best at conserving speed/shearing/progression, while being the worst offender at over promoting it. But specifically ...there is a tendency for the N/stream to be less dictating on the flow behavior beneath 40N... That allows opportunity for S/W of southern origin to come up and under cold loading in a different total behavior compared to that velocity BS in mid winter. ( which by the way ...that is proven - yet again ... - to be a plague during this winter season, regardless of whatever telecon or leading seasonal indicator, too. Digress ... ) I'm also providing some avenue out by saying 'we monitor' - just out of deference to sun and seasonality ...etc.

Yeah.. I told "Sey-Mour hopes and warm dreams" that I thought the Euro might be experimenting but that is too much of a whopper suggestion from these EPO/PNA formulating out of every technological method there is at disposal to the field of prognostic science, and art, to ignore... We'll see what it can do when up against seasonality and sun. I've been pounding out keyboards as of late that the models tend to under-evaluate these factors and seem to regress their solutions out in time... But this signal has just become overbearing at this point - I almost wonder if the opposite might be kinda true.

Yeah... I dunno. I wanna be on the other side of the 7 straight days of -3 SD EPO before any personal ambitions and/or confidences in spring begin to blossom... Seasonality and sun will offset that some, but that is a refriken cold signal. CC or not ... we've had big wintry events up here in the nordic wasteland of "spring New England" quite late, during lesser large scale indicators. I get it that the winter sucked so bad that people are perhaps jaded beyond the point of rational thought in the matter - nevertheless, there's nothing untrue in that history, nor what these present mass fields are progged to do. Mid levels are going to get cold all the way down to mid latitudes over the continent next week - The antecedent +PNA tries at neutralizing, but I suspect that's more to do with the initial stressing on the pattern by the -EPO burst/onset, which tries to back drill hgts west of 100W, initially. But the PNA index beyond is still bouncing around neutral, so that' probably cold loading over top some sort of trough ejections S of 40 N, and well...that's what the actualized sfc charts are doing. If this were Feb 5, we'd be probably already be threading a major. For now, ...we monitor. But keeping one's subjective desires of the season and whatever out of it, that's too impressive a signal and if your visions of green lawns and maple blossom aromas are writing your internal narratives ... you may want to refer to Maud Miller: "Of all the saddest words of tongue or pen there are none more sad than these, 'what might have been' "

That's a classic little critter on the D5 ( 00z EURO). ...easily overlooked. That could have a wad of activity capable of 3 hours of moderate or even borderline heavy that starts as sprinkles of rain and then boof! Did someone bust open a down pillow? It's not showing much continuity run to run so... probably just a noisy solution

I noticed NE Pac is -0 850 C all the way down to San Francisco latitude when looking over the 00z operational version... is that what y'all's talkin' 'bout? It's suddenly reverted back to a January 20th climatology look in the wholesale complexion of the hemisphere - I saw the model do this last year around this time. Because this latter experience, and the fact that it just looks climate bogus ...I'm also inclined to suspect it. The thing is, the GFS and GGEM also looked like they're saddling the cold lower into middle latitudes, too - just not as much... These tech sources share grid inputs. They purchase it from one another... when they really should just have that be open source if they had a f'ing modicum of virtuosity outside of economic "automatonic" drones ( another idealistic rage for another time lol). At least they use to sell it... Anyway, I'm wondering if there's something in the "global initialization" that is either real or fake. I do still suggest watching the 20-25th for perhaps a season's last gasp at something.

Meh it’s the mean date of the first snow resulting more than an inch spanning the last 12 yrs

Ever been on the run and realize your carb short.... man. I could eat about 7 of those right now.

20th to 24th ... last chance until November 13th

some of you are like monkey see monkey do, no other consideration. if it were cold today, and warm up next week, the tone would be how horrible NE springs are woe is us f our butts god have mercy...blah blah. but because it's warm now out side at this moment, no awareness of the cold dumpster liable to last some 7 straight days set to begin Sunday LOL It's prolly just me, but I have trouble celebrating today and/or trophy hoisting as a warm enthusiast when considering the bigger picture here.

maybe ... forecasters will have to watch for this -

yeah ...the orograthic cloud patterning aspect I was discussing is more N of the CT/RI border's with MA.