Typhoon Tip

Yeah... not to make it about me but really, I haven't once talked about temperatures across the themes of my posting this winter thus far, in any limitation schemes. I've never thought we had a lack of cold air; limitation has been the access to colder air. Even if the above panel is derived because nights were this or days were that, and the ending averages somehow belie the truth of temperature distribution in some way ... I very vividly recall plumes of sub -10C air expanding across Canada below the 60th parallel to know, it's just a matter of if the circulation mode over the continent gets it far enough south to do the deed. I've had three separate 14", 2" and 4.5" totaling my snow season thus far. I'm thinking I may be a little behind average to date? But based purely on scalar comparison, that's not sufficient to justify grousing if being fair to expectation. Wanting and pining or heroine ague withdraw syndrome ... those are not part of that "fairness to expectation" model. So maybe in the SE zones and along S CT/RI they are farther behind... Otherwise, if folks are manic when not being above normal for snow, no sympathy. If one's quality of life is being affected by model cinema not triggering the right way? - not joke, they should seek some sort of council. I'm curious if the 24th overrunning works out. I've seen those burst to 6" where's more snow over cold rain types. Suddenly, I'd be nearing 28" - ... But you know, if it didn't snow again I'm weird. I'd find that interesting.

HAHAHA... ... but just in case... please don't couch me in with the "Gretoscracy"

I have 0

I think so... But with the oceans warming at a faster rate ( recently ) than the 30 years trend line ( in other words accelerated rate ) that makes attribution difficult to parse out, which and what owns what. I feel the circulation changes over the last 30 years in general are occurring are too plausibly connected to redistributing the SST. That should be automatic ... Change the wind patterns --> changes that sea surface stressing model. If we can't see that much wrt to than Darwin's already won... (the actual trophy awarding happens when we pretend the anthropogenic CC forcing isn't the cause) But, look at what happened last spring. The oceanic surface anomalies everywhere ... spiked. And, stayed there. The PDO is a moving average. The (-) vs (+) of that longer term teleconnector are based upon very long term seas surface temperature normals. I'm just having trouble with the arithmetic of even using the -PDO, because these above aspects causing the "negative," appear to be modulated too fast( faster) for(than) the longer/multi-decade basis. What it all boils down to is that the -PDO right now ... doesn't mean the same implication on the weather patterns that it physically did back in 1950. Probably not the same as it did in 2000, given the last 20 years of explosions in heat d(rate) being observed. I don't think the current -PDO is driving these current pattern headaches ...etc. The -PDO, and the heart aches, are both a reflection of something else going on, and that something else is most likely CC general.

Agreed... I feel as though the speediness of the basal flow across the hemisphere, as well as the -PDO ... etc, are at least relatable to the facets found in this paraphrased reprint, https://phys.org/news/2024-01-climate-south-china-sea-global.html "...Researchers point to the predicted changes in the Hadley circulation as an example, which is a cell that connects the tropics and extratropics. In a warmer climate, the ascending branch of the Hadley circulation would become stronger and narrower, while the descending branch would shift poleward..." The implications on the mid latitude is that there is the increasing gradient in the boreal winter, a posit I made on my own back in 2010. Heights and warming is occurring in the polar regions at 3X's the global rate ( 1.5 to 2X's the global rate, but recent findings increased that to 3). However, that rate of change hasn't yet crossed a threshold where the total D(HGT) between 70N and 30N falls below increasing geostrophic wind as a compression response. There was an earlier ( half decade ago at this point) IPCC report ... chapter 5 discussed implications. The HC was notably expanding ... but they also attempted to limit that to summers. I found that to be dubious. I didn't believe that part of it would ultimately prove true. They appeared to be basing that on the observed termination latitude of where the HC boundary smears out into the westerlies... However, it is an easy math conversion to show that spatial release in winter, is actually converted to mechanical energy... in the form of speeding up the flow. Trading. It's okay though ... since then there are papers that describe the jets as increasing in velocity (now) ..which I feel was academically missed by the 2017 report background. That's the nature of a new frontiers of science. There are going to be suppositions and postulates that turn out to be both correct, and incorrect ... and around and around we go. I think the speeding flow and increasing wind is distorting SST anomalies over the Pacific northern Basin, another among a new ( or new-ish) aspect of the CC implication envelope. Add that to the list. That, AND... it is also physically proven that 90% of the warming in CC has been absorbed by the oceans. Despite the increased killer heat waves and record general warm episode headline frequency, world over, spanning the last 20 years, those are atmospheric.

It's almost like whatever form the scenario(s) next week take(s) aside, they were created specifically for the purpose of tormenting weather-charting-psychotropic drug addicts. hahaha. I mean ... it may snow, it may not. But it CAN snow, and saying it can not ... is false. Yet saying it will, is equally false. This is akin to backing food truck up to the prison gate at Auschwitz, parking it there and walking away.

Global cooling

00z GFS ends that run in full spring from Texas all the way up to Kansas. It's just as less likely to occur as a big snow event at that range, of course. But I can tell ... as a veritable Rain Main when it comes to cataloging historical weather charts in the brain that I am, you can trust me when I tell you that 570 dm hydrostatic heights ballooning to the latitude of Kansas on February 4 is weird - I don't care what range it is...

I already think it is ... It's got overwhelming support now in the ensemble synoptic evolution through that period. But it's easy to see why it's setting up along the lines of 'synoptic theory'. We have had an active N branch for the last 10 days ( bringing cold to the middle latitude continent and so forth...), and it abandons, but doesn't retreat fully. It really backs out to about 55 N... but this is a base-line confluence result. As the +PP structures and moves by to the N, it's going to have to instantiate an isentropic lifting interface where the return flow around the oriented ... well, fuggit - here this is the preceding day, the 23rd... you can see the the return flow is likely happening whether this high builds in from the NW or not... *BUT*, because it is... the overrunning is caused by the high obtruding into the region as the return flow is then forced to intersect. The next day, ... boom- it's really the high pressure that causes this to happen... not a low pressure in this overall scenario.

I'd also watch this period here ... Nothing specific for now - just you know ...future guidance, keep in mind.

yeah... well, that's why I suggest a combination of 'deck loading against,' together with bad luck. It's impossible - probably - to parse out how much is which -

I get the frustration - not meaning to be insensitive ... But the deck is increasingly loaded as the years go by, wrt to that sort of 'give us a break' failure. The expectation should be that it is getting lesser likely to observe those kind of stretches. It's happening at some rate - whatever that is, I don't know. It's probably a combination of bad lucky, with "climate cards deck loading" ... but the proportionality there in? good luck figuring that out.

Firstly the Euro Weeklies is up to the user for inclusion in any outlook ... I wouldn't fwiw. Secondly, the flow structure paints a different picture than the color distribution - I would hope Allan takes that into consideration ... but I don't know.

All this beady-eyed frenetic tapping and clicking on these model runs for a futile lost cause ... haha. It strikes me as the seen in "Princes Bride," whereupon Count Rugen was admiring the pain he caused and as Wesley above all else still rises to his feet, ... Rugen says, "Good heavens! Are you still trying to win?"

That's actually a high amplitude +PNA. Lower heights N/NE of Hawaii, higher heights over western continent is the hallmark of +PNA. Only that Euro means is very deep and widely integrated N of Hawaii, terminating into a flatter western N/A ridge... The problem is, the amplitude is there but not expressed in the N-S(meridian). This is a problem of fundamental physics ( really..) in that higher velocity tends not to go around sharper angled trajectories. When the flow is gradient soaked, and thus fast ... the curves in the flow tend to stretch like that. I'm just commenting on the pattern foot...

It's been an interesting season for model performance ... it's been A, or F. Not a lot of mediocrity there. This handling of this recent event was piss poor in the global runs. I don't consider their ceding to the event with just 30 hours remaining before dandruff as acceptable. Booya to the meso models - particularly the RGEM which took the trophy in performance. Sans details and people just not being happy with the d-drip dosing, probably skewing the fairer judgement for it ..., the essence of getting an event out of the performance window actually seen by technology that is supposed to be able to see it ... the RGEM was miles ahead of the pack. The NAM comes in a second on that...perhaps the ICON 3rd - I do recall some consistency around a 3 or 4" interior result from that particular guidance. Anyway, going back the system that dropped the 6-16" across the interior the week before...the global models were outstanding on that one. The one next week - I prooobably shouldn't be too optimistic about that at this range. It's not really anchored in telecon signaling, and the ens means may be too noisy to handle the delicate nature of that set up. Which leaves it up to the operationals to be right with less support. Eek! But I've seen that type of snow event 'sneak up' on forecasters back in the 1980s and 1990s - prior to present day modeling standards. You get that NW-SE oriented polar boundary and then sustainable isentrophic lift develops over top. What looked like a warm interlude ends up shunted to PA, while we contend with episodic gunky snows and mix. You know,... ( can't believe I'm saying this with Kevin in ear shot) but that could also evolve into an icing scenario.

Not only that... the one about day and half after the 24th -ish has also been surprising consistent. Very similar to the predecessor... After all that, we may begin to see the N/A look tilt in favor a low amplitude +PNA, with overriding -EPO loading cold. Higher hopes for that last week of January into the first week of February from my desk.

I believe it's legit guys - just my 2 cents.... As I'm sure both of you are aware, this below has been a consistent feature on or around the 24th for many runs... Sometimes more than less actual snow, but the same synoptic cinema. It's now also showing up in the operational Euro more than less. The thing is, this sort of event tends to get buried in the noise of the means so those are less useful at this range. It is also not a telecon signaled type, either. I don't have a problem with it. I posted that episodic confluence across the Canadian shield would threaten the homogenized warmth idea a day or two ago. But, folks get caught up in the neg- head meme thing, so it's not really probably being read very well... ha.

This thread has gotten away from strictly El Niño… That said, I don’t think people should hang their hat on whatever the EPO projections are right now, because they’ve been unusually variable – typically they are more stochastic than the larger domain space/index fields - including the NAO in that part of the discussion. But this year in particular the models are having trouble with continuity with and how much 500 mbar anomalies are really gonna be situated over the Alaskan sector in the average extended. Gee it almost seems like a -PDO battling with an underpinning warm ENSO. . … It’s an important issue for determinism, because we are approaching the climatological nadir. Just so happens to be these models are also trying to make us go above normal on top of that - but that may be changing before our very eyes. I’m noticing that some of the operational dailies are starting to tinker with how much warming there’s actually going to be. I think there’s just enough uncertainty coming from these various arguments to wonder how warm it’s gonna be N of DC these next two weeks

It's interesting ...this 'warm up' next week, not prepared to say it's formally in trouble, but ... it does seems we are dealing with episodic confluence/induction of +PP scenarios too often for me to sign off at that being of larger positive departure - speaking to roughly N of PHL latitudes. In fact, ...operational GFS runs are periodically even snowing as warm surges occasionally abut the resulting +PP cold walls and run up and over.. We'll see on those but there's room here to suspect a corrupted thaw.

yeah...snark aside, that annotation is in regards to that particular model depiction -

Personally not surprised some models may be attempting to north adjusting as we near. Brookline' and I were discussing last night and those synoptic conjectural aspects are still very much in play. There's a ton of powerful jet max running along S of LI. Previous guidance cycles have been suppressed down around 2.5 or 3 Deg lat below the ideal climate signal for White Plains NY to Bedford MA QPF max, but as we discussed ... if future guidance were to wiggle that axis just a hair, 1.5 N - very doable even in good performance modeling sources at an 84+ hour range - than it's too plausible that we're in for another short range correction toward a light if not moderate up to the Pike. Wiggle more ...adjust more...less, adjust less - talking in terms of the probability layout. I think Walter's been posting those over in his thread efforts in the NYC thread; they may or may be based up this sort of climate approach - in fact I'm entirely certain what constitutes those products ... Anyway, I've been noticing with the RGEM too ... both are filling in QPF to N. PA and S. VT/NH whenever the jet axis ticks N across recent run cycles ... which tentatively offers a realization on this philosophy above. Like I've been saying ...I'm not sold on missing a light to potentially moderate result clipping the S. half of the SNE. It's appears the sensitivity is related to where the W-E axis situates in latitude entirely with this.

It seems pretty clear that's getting more difficult, year after year, anyway. Just hypothetically: suppose in 1950 there is a 50% chance of being above normal snowfall when peering ahead from any given October 15. Now ? -would be perhaps half those chances? 25% ... Certainly it is less, though. At the rate in which CC is occurring already, makes the present 7-10 day scold wave across the CONUS, and any possible winter-storm events connected to it ... seem to be the rarefying state. There's currently an article published over at Phys.org ... quoting among others, Judah Cohen... His contribution is generally on point ... Et al, they describe that the reason N/A is cold is in part because the AO is forced negative by Global Warming. I don't have any issues with that, ...despite some home-grown dissension over the him - I don't really engage in that popular dissent so be that as it may. I don't follow his work. But I will add that it is theoretically sound to connect warm excess terminating into higher latitudes as contributing to increased incidences of higher latitude blocking. Blocking then directs planetary CCB channels into mid latitude, and like water ...finds the pathways of lesser resistance. Which it happens to be that the topographic macro-scaled circumstance of the NE Pacific running into the western N/A continental cordillera, creates a natural channel east of said Continental Divide. So ...in principle... CC can be at least partial in why the U.S. seems to do okay with cold waves while the warming over the integral of the world is actually increasing.. Whenever I read that statement you wrote (bold) in general (seems to be meme in here), the first internal monologue that coalesces out of the white noise of the mind goes something like, "who ever thought that was possible." Obviously, it is possible - sort of. Buuuut, DP/DT (change in possibility over change in time) is not only in decline, year after year, it's likely accelerating in the D' - most objective observations around the world, at minimum make that intuitive. But unless we get one of these CCB channel events to produce big dawgs with more success, it does appear the "maintenance" periods in between bounce back too warm to favor - the seasonal totaling comes in the aggregate. Adding up all the nickle and dimes, over the longer haul, will tend to outweigh the bomb-cyclone trophy totaling. If we lose the nickle and dimers... it gets lower dicey. But ... hell, it may be a fun challenge to try and buck those odds.

God it feels good to be a gangsta' !